Predictions: State of CU Hoops in 10 Years

[Buffnik]

For the time capsule...

10 years from now:

• CU will have become a fixture in the Top 25 & annual threat
• Tad will have averaged over 26 wins a year to reach 500 at CU
• Basketball is so popular at CU that everyone celebrates when Chauncey takes over for a retiring George
• It is announced that construction will begin on an arena and facilities that rival Kentucky's - project funded and managed by Dinwiddie Enterprises

 

[Goose]

You’re drinking again aren’t you?

 

[Alfred91]

For the time capsule...

10 years from now:

• CU will have become a fixture in the Top 25 & annual threat
• Tad will have averaged over 26 wins a year to reach 500 at CU
• Basketball is so popular at CU that everyone celebrates when Chauncey takes over for a retiring George
• It is announced that construction will begin on an arena and facilities that rival Kentucky's - project funded and managed by Dinwiddie Enterprises

I'm fine with this.

IOW, don't bogart that thing.

 

[H.E. Pennypacker]

So many reasons to be excited!

 

[Buffalo Brad]

We are already on the road to being a basketball school so might as well go all in

 

[BuffsNYC]

A regular season conference championship.

Two seasons conference tournament champions.

Two sweet sixteen appearances.

A final four appearance.

I need to remind you that I studied a lot in law school. Sometimes, the ****ing fluorescent lights in the old law school library would drive me crazy.

So sometimes I would gather up my books and head to the Keg, use my student sport pass to get in, and proceed to study/watch the Buffs play basketball from the cheap seats. There would be nobody sitting close to me and so quiet I could get a good amount of reading done.

 

[hokiehead]

A regular season conference championship.

Two seasons conference tournament champions.

Two sweet sixteen appearances.

A final four appearance.

I need to remind you that I studied a lot in law school. Sometimes, the ****ing fluorescent lights in the old law school library would drive me crazy.

So sometimes I would gather up my books and head to the Keg, use my student sport pass to get in, and proceed to study/watch the Buffs play basketball from the cheap seats. There would be nobody sitting close to me and so quiet I could get a good amount of reading done.

I tried that once -- taking my study material into a basketball game as a college student.

it didn't work. after about 5 minutes into the game, the books were put away and I was a fully engaged fan.

good for you having a higher degree of self disclipline.

 

[Darth Snow]

 

[slider]

My guess is we will be somewhere near where we are now. Maybe a bit more up and down but a nice tourney run thrown in there every several years

 

[NWD Buff]

I have full confidence in Coach Battey being able to continue a long run of deep tournament appearances in 2031.

 

[Not Sure]

Really depends on Tad being here or not. If he’s still here, I could definitely see this program being perennial top 20 with top three in the conference on a consistent basis. I don’t think he’s done enough program building yet to make this a destination for top coaching talent if he leaves. Without Tad, probably a mid to lower tier PAC 12 program that might get a sniff from the NIT every couple years.

 

[BuffsNYC]

Really depends on Tad being here or not. If he’s still here, I could definitely see this program being perennial top 20 with top three in the conference on a consistent basis. I don’t think he’s done enough program building yet to make this a destination for top coaching talent if he leaves. Without Tad, probably a mid to lower tier PAC 12 program that might get a sniff from the NIT every couple years.

I dunno, since the expansion to 12 teams, every Pac 12 team except Wazzu has made the dance.

Expecting nothing more than to compete for the NIT is basically the basement of the Pac.

 

[Denver_sc]

Really depends on Tad being here or not. If he’s still here, I could definitely see this program being perennial top 20 with top three in the conference on a consistent basis. I don’t think he’s done enough program building yet to make this a destination for top coaching talent if he leaves. Without Tad, probably a mid to lower tier PAC 12 program that might get a sniff from the NIT every couple years.

Disluke. So long as Colorado AD doesn't **** the bed, Tad will be here in 10 years.

I see him building something like Leonard Hamilton down at FSU:

• Hamilton was hired at FSU in 2002 when he was 54, and FSU had made the Tourney 10 times in their history. Boyle was hired at CU in 2010 when he was 47, and at the time CU had 9 Tourney appearances.
• Hamilton had some early recruiting success (most classes in the 20-40 range, but a couple in the top 20) but had to build to post-season appearances, reaching the the NIT 4 of his first 6 seasons. Boyle had classes mostly in the 50s, but a highly rated class early on (2012). He had more success reaching the post-season, however, going from the NIT in his first season to making the tourney 4 out of the next 5 seasons.
• Starting In Hamilton's 7th season they reeled off 4 straight tourney appearances, going as far as the Sweet 16, but then they hit a bit of a lull when most of the highly-regarded players from his early classes were gone. Following Boyle's early success making the postseason, he hit a lull for 4 years, missing the tourney all 3 (he would have probably made it in the next season, which was lost to Covid).
• Something happened in FSU's 2015 class, and Hamilton pulled in the number 11 class followed by the 4th ranked classin 2016. Since that 2015 class showed up on campus, FSU has made the Tourney 4 consecutive times- one R32 elimination, two Sweet Sixteen elimination, and one Elite 8. Disappointingly, the cancelled tournament last year came in the midst of this run- they likely would have made at least another Elite 8 appearance.

Through their first 11 seasons, Hamilton had 5 NIT appearances and 4 tourney appearances with one S16, one R32, and 2 R64. Boyle has 3 NIT appearances and 5 tourney appearances (two R32 and three R64), although Boyle likely would have added a sixth appearance last year.

The funny thing is that 2015 class was Hamilton's 13th at FSU. Tad's 12th class is the 2021 class, which is ranked 11th, and he has another stellar class already in the works for 2022.

This is all a long-winded way of saying that the next decade is likely to be VERY fun for CU fans, and the next 5-6 should be particularly exciting if it's anything like what FSU has experienced.

 

[ahoelsken]

A regular season conference championship.

Two seasons conference tournament champions.

Two sweet sixteen appearances.

A final four appearance.

I need to remind you that I studied a lot in law school. Sometimes, the ****ing fluorescent lights in the old law school library would drive me crazy.

So sometimes I would gather up my books and head to the Keg, use my student sport pass to get in, and proceed to study/watch the Buffs play basketball from the cheap seats. There would be nobody sitting close to me and so quiet I could get a good amount of reading done.

So this is like the Frosty Cox era of CU basketball we're talking?

 

[BuffsNYC]

So this is like the Frosty Cox era of CU basketball we're talking?

You misspelled cocks.

 

[Not Sure]

I dunno, since the expansion to 12 teams, every Pac 12 team except Wazzu has made the dance.

Expecting nothing more than to compete for the NIT is basically the basement of the Pac.

That’s basically what we were prior to Tad. Save for a year here or there where we had a guy like Chauncey, CU hoops was horrible.

 

[BuffsNYC]

That’s basically what we were prior to Tad. Save for a year here or there where we had a guy like Chauncey, CU hoops was horrible.

I think times have changed for power 5 programs.

 

[FM-Buff]

So what’s the best case scenario for the basketball program regarding the conference realignment? Stay in PAC-12? Move to B1G? Get left behind and join the MWC and go all in on the basketball program? (kidding…sort of). I’m hoping all of this can benefit Tad&Co somehow.

 

[Heywood]

A regular season conference championship.

Two seasons conference tournament champions.

Two sweet sixteen appearances.

A final four appearance.

I need to remind you that I studied a lot in law school. Sometimes, the ****ing fluorescent lights in the old law school library would drive me crazy.

So sometimes I would gather up my books and head to the Keg, use my student sport pass to get in, and proceed to study/watch the Buffs play basketball from the cheap seats. There would be nobody sitting close to me and so quiet I could get a good amount of reading done.

Did you just find a random fluorescent light gif, or was the comparison of the law school to the fake testicle factory intentional?

 

[Luke]

So what’s the best case scenario for the basketball program regarding the conference realignment? Stay in PAC-12? Move to B1G? Get left behind and join the MWC and go all in on the basketball program? (kidding…sort of). I’m hoping all of this can benefit Tad&Co somehow.

Best case: Get Kansas to come to PAC-12, but they’re already talking to Big-10.

Next-best: Get Oklahoma St, Texas Tech & Houston to join PAC-12. Luv the Texas recruiting bump we would get. Boise St may be most likely 4th team to add, over religious affiliations of TCU & Baylor?

Four 16-team super-league conferences (w/ Big12/Big 8 relegated to mid-major) may increase TV dollars for CU & bring PAC-12/PAC-16 more national relevancy.

 

[Luke]

Best case: Get Kansas to come to PAC-12, but they’re already talking to Big-10.

Next-best: Get Oklahoma St, Texas Tech & Houston to join PAC-12. Luv the Texas recruiting bump we would get. Boise St may be most likely 4th team to add, over religious affiliations of TCU & Baylor?

Four 16-team super-league conferences (w/ Big12/Big 8 relegated to mid-major) may increase TV dollars for CU & bring PAC-12/PAC-16 more national relevancy.

Best-case: convince Gonzaga to join PAC-16 over Boise St. But would need football power like Boise St or BYU, to make it financially feasible. Supposedly, PAC-12 didn’t like BYU’s religious affiliation in the past either (similar to TCU/Baylor).

 

[Buffnik]

So what’s the best case scenario for the basketball program regarding the conference realignment? Stay in PAC-12? Move to B1G? Get left behind and join the MWC and go all in on the basketball program? (kidding…sort of). I’m hoping all of this can benefit Tad&Co somehow.

Hoops is fine regardless. Can recruit anywhere and since it has a rep for winning, graduating players and developing non McD AAs into pro careers there's nothing that will hold it back from getting high 3* and low 4* character guys into the future.

 

[DBT]

The best case is that the Pac remains relevant. To do that they will have to keep the 12 current teams in the fold and expand to at least 16 programs. The additional 4 (minimum) would need to expand the PAC’s footprint into Texas. That happening, the Pac 12 would then need to land a significant media package. All of those things happening would be the best case. The dissolution of the Pac would be the worst.

 

[Goose]

Hoops is fine regardless. Can recruit anywhere and since it has a rep for winning, graduating players and developing non McD AAs into pro careers there's nothing that will hold it back from getting high 3* and low 4* character guys into the future.

I mostly agree with this. That said, the thought of going to the B1G scares the hell out of me. Being brutally honest, we've built this program by taking advantage whenever there are lulls in the P12's power structure. Now we have to keep building on that. And it appears that we are, but the B1G is - as much as I hate to admit it - probably the best hoops conference in the nation. I had this discussion with @Darth Snow last Friday and over the last 5 years using KenPom CU's average rank in the P12 was 4.2 - meaning we were averaging to compete for a first round bye in the P12 tourney every year and arguably a bubble to "in" team in the tourney. In the B1G, we would have ranked 9.6. Over that time period, the B1G averaged 7 tourney teams a year (note: 2020 threw everything off, so grain of salt because I think the B1G would have had a lot more dancers that year and raised the number - for example CU was the 35th best team in the country and would have been the 13th best team in the B1G that year). Add in that we wouldn't have games in CA or TX - two places we try to hit for recruits historically - and it scares me a bit.

Personally, with all of my biases (I hate the B1G, I hate the midwest, I want nothing to do with the old Big 12, etc. etc.) on the table, I think the current P12 is the best setup RIGHT NOW for the hoops team.

 

[Not Sure]

I agree that a move to the B1G would be bad for the hoops program. We can generally expect to win 90% of our home conference games and 40-50% of the road games. Those numbers change pretty dramatically in the B1G.

 

[Alfred91]

Best-case: convince Gonzaga to join PAC-16 over Boise St. But would need football power like Boise St or BYU, to make it financially feasible. Supposedly, PAC-12 didn’t like BYU’s religious affiliation in the past either (similar to TCU/Baylor).

Gonzaga is a Catholic school.

 

[Darth Snow]

In 10 years, Tad won't be here. So, ****ty. Whatever conference we are in. I won't believe CU can survive Tad's departure until it does.

 

[TallBuff]

For the time capsule...

10 years from now:

• CU will have become a fixture in the Top 25 & annual threat
• Tad will have averaged over 26 wins a year to reach 500 at CU
• Basketball is so popular at CU that everyone celebrates when Chauncey takes over for a retiring George
• It is announced that construction will begin on an arena and facilities that rival Kentucky's - project funded and managed by Dinwiddie Enterprises

• CU will be competing for its second B1G championship

 

[PAC MAN]

So what’s the best case scenario for the basketball program regarding the conference realignment? Stay in PAC-12? Move to B1G? Get left behind and join the MWC and go all in on the basketball program? (kidding…sort of). I’m hoping all of this can benefit Tad&Co somehow.

Staying in the Pac-12 would be the best case scenario.

If CU moves to the B1G, there is no shortage of programs that will pump resources into basketball. If KU joins, that is KU, Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Indiana, Purdue, and Maryland. Could be harder than what we used to face in the Big 12.

Assuming that Oklahoma State and Texas Tech join, the Pac-12 will get tougher and it will depend on who the last two will be.

 

[Goose]