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Punt Return Efficiency, FBS Win%, and Offensive Efficiency

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/02/27/does-the-nfl-combine-matter-offense/

Far from a great model, but it gives a interesting look at some factors that affect production

Interesting. Seems like a lot of them aren't really great predictors, and some positions don't have any predictions in them, but it's definitely something to consider.

I'm a big believer in advanced stats in baseball, but I'm not overly sold on them in football. Then again, maybe I just don't understand them that well.
 
Interesting. Seems like a lot of them aren't really great predictors, and some positions don't have any predictions in them, but it's definitely something to consider.

I'm a big believer in advanced stats in baseball, but I'm not overly sold on them in football. Then again, maybe I just don't understand them that well.
Football is probably the toughest sport to model because of the amount of factors involved. Advanced football stats is still pretty new, and the NFL is far ahead of college so it'll be interesting to see what discoveries happen going forward
 
Football is probably the toughest sport to model because of the amount of factors involved. Advanced football stats is still pretty new, and the NFL is far ahead of college so it'll be interesting to see what discoveries happen going forward

Some of the ones I've seen feel kinda like defensive stats in baseball. They're usually pretty accurate, but sometimes you get some serious wtf?

I mean like, how do we statistically plot the value of an OL player? Sacks allowed/pancakes/TD blocks/penalties? Hard to really know that kind of stuff I guess.

I am pretty surprised vertical jump and the agility drills weren't more useful. And the 40 was randomly useful for some OL. The QB stuff sounds promising for Montez, though.
 
Some of the ones I've seen feel kinda like defensive stats in baseball. They're usually pretty accurate, but sometimes you get some serious wtf?

I mean like, how do we statistically plot the value of an OL player? Sacks allowed/pancakes/TD blocks/penalties? Hard to really know that kind of stuff I guess.

I am pretty surprised vertical jump and the agility drills weren't more useful. And the 40 was randomly useful for some OL. The QB stuff sounds promising for Montez, though.
Yeah the OL 40 is a weird one, I would have thought shuttle would be a lot more useful
 
To the OP, statistics mean a lot to a population, but nothing to an individual punt return, and not much to an individual game. And as someone else said, statistics can be made to say what you want. For example in this case, maybe punt returns don't mean a lot to a population for points the way the data was collected, but still have a big effect. What I'm getting at is they did do some obvious things like eliminate garbage points (but is that really valid?), they said nothing about looking at point tendencies for follow-on drives. How many times have we heard this is a game of field position? So you don't score right after the great punt, but you pin the opponent close to their end and score the next time.
 
Football is probably the toughest sport to model because of the amount of factors involved. Advanced football stats is still pretty new, and the NFL is far ahead of college so it'll be interesting to see what discoveries happen going forward
Where are you Nate Silver? :lol:
 
At least the kids have now found something for which math skills are useful. If I were a math instructor, I'd figure out a way to have them do some saber metric sports exercise.
 
I think having a dynamic returner would be valuable. When the PA announces, “Back to return #1 Ben Kelly” or “Jeremy Bloooom” the crowd starts buzzing. This team needs any kind of excitement it can get. And what play is more exciting than a return for a TD? It’s Boulder, we need entertaining football to sell tickets.
 
I would not expect punt returns to have an impact on winning percentage. When you average out punt returns over the course of a season across many teams - the variation is not that significant. Plus most teams average less that 2.5 returns per game (fair catches don't count in returns). A more important stat is field position advantage which returns and coverage are part of. I think in football sometimes the statistics just bear out the quality of the team.
 
I would not expect punt returns to have an impact on winning percentage. When you average out punt returns over the course of a season across many teams - the variation is not that significant. Plus most teams average less that 2.5 returns per game (fair catches don't count in returns). A more important stat is field position advantage which returns and coverage are part of. I think in football sometimes the statistics just bear out the quality of the team.
I can see the win loss logic, but you would see the value show up when you look at the offensive output, but we don't.
 
I want to say that the data the coaches look at says that if you fair caught every single punt while avoiding any penalties on the plays, that you'd be in better than average shape. Penalties, fumbles & uncaught punts bouncing downfield create more negatives for your scoring potential than positive returns deliver over the course of a season.

On that note, I'm surprised that more programs don't put 2 guys back to catch while rushing with 9. A punt block is a big ****ing deal for your team.
 
I want to say that the data the coaches look at says that if you fair caught every single punt while avoiding any penalties on the plays, that you'd be in better than average shape. Penalties, fumbles & uncaught punts bouncing downfield create more negatives for your scoring potential than positive returns deliver over the course of a season.

On that note, I'm surprised that more programs don't put 2 guys back to catch while rushing with 9. A punt block is a big ****ing deal for your team.

Then again, the refs seem to be calling roughing the kicker pretty tight. I wonder what the ratio of Penalty First Downs / Blocked Punts is? My guess is greater than 2:1
 
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I can see the win loss logic, but you would see the value show up when you look at the offensive output, but we don't.

Why would it show up in offensive production (output)? The trouble with looking at punt returns as a stand alone stat is that it does not factor in the importance of field position. If the returner fields the punt at the 10 and returns it out to the 25 - that is a decent return. Another returner fields the punt at the 50 and returns it 2 yards to the 48. The worst return has a higher likely hood of points because of field position. Many times the short punts are not returned at all (not counted in the stats) but result in scoring because of better field position. By itself punt returns do not impact winning but Field Position advantage does.
 
Why would it show up in offensive production (output)? The trouble with looking at punt returns as a stand alone stat is that it does not factor in the importance of field position. If the returner fields the punt at the 10 and returns it out to the 25 - that is a decent return. Another returner fields the punt at the 50 and returns it 2 yards to the 48. The worst return has a higher likely hood of points because of field position. Many times the short punts are not returned at all (not counted in the stats) but result in scoring because of better field position. By itself punt returns do not impact winning but Field Position advantage does.

I'm not sure if you're understanding the stat, it accounts for field position.

I was interested in identifying the national average expectations for a punting team in terms of field-position value and then measuring each punt for each team against that value. I first collected the data from every non-garbage time punt in the last three years, 19,862 punts in all. From each drive-ending punt position, I then calculated the average starting field position for the opponent's next drive. For instance, the 403 punts from midfield in the last three years netted an average starting field position for the opponent at its own 18-yard line. The 413 punts from a team's own 20-yard line in the last three years netted an average starting field position for the opponent at its own 41-yard line.

Every yard line translates into an expected field-position value. An average offense against an average defense is expected to score 1.2 points per possession from its own 18-yard line and 2.2 points per possession from its own 41-yard line. In the same manner that offensive efficiency is calculated, Punting Efficiency (PE) is simply the actual value of post-punt field position divided by the expected value of post-punt field position, minus one (in order to represent a team's efficiency above or below average). A good punt team will have a PE below zero, pinning opponents with less starting field position value than expected. A good punt return team will have a PE above zero, creating more starting field position value than expected.

It is important to note that this metric should be attributed to the respective punt unit and punt return unit, not just the punter or punt returner involved. It does not take into account the hang time or roll of the punt, the coverage, etc. Rather, the resulting field position of the entire play is taken into account. Punts returned for a touchdown are credited with a field position value of 6.96 points. Punts that are fumbled are credited with the field position value of the recovered fumble. PE does not include any adjustment for the strength of opposition faced.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/fei-ratings/2010/fei-everybody-punts
 
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