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Races thread- Cross Country (#3 women/ #8 men) at 2018 NCAA Championships (Sat., 11/17, 9:45 AM MT)

AztecBuff

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Best wishes to the men and women XC squads at (a cold and possibly snowy) Madison this Saturday as they race in THE NCAA Cross Country Championships!

Preview-


Direct link - https://cubuffs.com/news/2018/11/14...epped-for-ncaa-championships-on-saturday.aspx

"
BOULDER — The University of Colorado cross country teams are both looking to end the season on a high note as both will compete at the 2018 NCAA Championships this Saturday, November 17, in Madison, Wis.

The women enter the meet tied for third in the country, while the men are ranked eighth overall. This will be the 27th straight NCAA appearance for men, which is the longest active streak on the men's side. For the women, it's the 26th appearance in the last 27 years.

Head coach Mark Wetmore is excited for the meet and has his teams ready to compete.

"Our women's team will be a very strong contender," he said. "Our men's team will go in ranked eighth hoping to move up a little bit. The weather conditions are forecast to be useful for our purposes, kind of wintery I think. Everyone is pretty healthy and we are excited."

The women's 6-kilometer race is slated first and is scheduled for a 9:45 a.m. MT/10:45 a.m. CT start. The men will run the 10k course second at 10:45 a.m. MT/11:45 a.m. MT at Thomas Zimmer Championship Course. An awards ceremony will follow both races.
...

The weather could be a concern with North winds expected between 5-10 miles per hour and highs near 33 on Saturday. There is also a 20 percent chance of snow on Friday night.

"Whatever we wake up to on Saturday morning, we won't panic," Wetmore said. "We've faced that here. Day before yesterday (Nov. 11) we had 12 or 13 inches of snow in Boulder, so the "coaching up" for conditions takes place all year round and while we have one of the best indoor facilities in the country for track, and even specifically for distance runners, we try not to use it unless we absolutely have to. We were in 32 and sleet three or four weeks ago and went out. So that's how we coach it up, we face it whenever we can."

2018 NCAA DIVISION I CROSS COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIP
Saturday, November 17, 2018
Madison, Wis. (Thomas Zimmer Championships Course)
9:45 a.m. (MT) - Women's 6k Race
10:45 a.m. (MT) - Men's 10k Race
Live Stream: FloTrack.org (subscription required)
Results: NCAA.com
"
______________________________________________________________

Host (U. of Wisconsin) Championships home page - https://uwbadgers.com/sports/2018/2/8/Cross-Country-Meet-Central.aspx

Buff Notes - https://cubuffs.com/documents/2018/11/14//2018_XC_Notes_NCAA_Notes.pdf

Initial Entries List - https://www.rtspt.com/events/ncaa/d1xc18/d1_entries.pdf
(Note that this preliminary list everyone the teams entered as ELIGIBLE to run, so includes some harriers that won't be on the course as part of the 7 runners who actually get to race Saturday. The Buffs initial entries, for example, include 10 women and 9 men.)

Video (Only available for those with Flotrack premium subscription. Link is to Flotrack Championships home page, which also contains other information.) - https://www.flotrack.org/events/6180217-2018-di-ncaa-xc-championships
(Saw someone wondering in a running message board, as do I- is cross country the only NCAA sport that has its Championship(s) video coverage only available behind a premium subscription paywall?)

Live entries, results and times - https://www.rtspt.com/events/ncaa/d1xc18/
 
Some more on the Championships-

Buff press conference with Coach Wetmore and Dani Jones from a few days ago-

______________________________________________________________________

An article of potential weather issues in Madison (cooler (probably in the 20's and possibly a little snow on the ground- which could benefit the Buffs against some teams) - https://cubuffs.com/news/2018/11/14/buffs-prepared-for-cold-at-ncaa-cross-country-championships.aspx

"
Buffs Prepared For Cold At NCAA Cross Country Championships

By: Neill Woelk, Contributing Editor
Release: November 15, 2018

BOULDER — If all goes well for the Colorado Buffaloes at Saturday's NCAA Cross Country Championships, they will have favorable weather conditions on their side.
So far, the forecast looks promising. Saturday's weather in Madison, Wis., is predicted to be cloudy, a high of 33 degrees, a chance of rain and/or snow, and enough wind to add some chill to the course.
"The weather conditions are forecast to be useful for our purposes," CU head coach Mark Wetmore said earlier this week. "And we are ready to go. Everyone is pretty healthy and we are excited."
Wetmore wasn't joking. CU's cross country teams have always taken pride in competing in tough conditions — and they have delivered in such. In 2000, led by Kara Grgas-Wheeler (now Kara Goucher), CU's women won the program's first NCAA championship, conquering brutal conditions in Ames, Iowa, to claim the title. Since then, CU has added six more titles to its collection, with several of those coming in less than friendly conditions.
"In Colorado, we experience every possible kind of weather," Wetmore said. "While there may be some teams that are disappointed or surprised at difficult conditions, we have no right to be. … We face it whenever we can."
...
"
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

There's also a lot more from outside media, with all the websites that have college running as interest having previews and/ or prediction articles.

From Letsrun.com (One possibly worrying thing from the Buffs perspective in the women's team preview linked to below (although assume it applies to both genders) - "One other thing: when we spoke to Mark Wetmore on Tuesday, he told us that “everybody” on his team was battling illness. At that point, we were still four days out from the meet, which means that CU’s runners have time to rest up. But it’s not a good sign in a race where a few points could be the difference between first and third.")

Women's team race - http://www.letsrun.com/news/2018/11...goes-3rd-title-4-years-deep-field-contenders/
(They pick New Mexico (already winners 2 of the last 3 years) based on the belief they'll get enough from their 5th (and to a lesser extent 4th) runners to win based on having by far the top 3 with the strongest resumes (including probably the 2 top individual favorites). I would say, however, it is closer than previous years, and with 5-6 teams possibly contending (led by New Mexico, Oregon, Colorado, Boise State, Arkansas and maybe Villanova), there are a lot more contenders than usual in this race, including Colorado.)

Part of what the article says about the Buffs (who they have guessed finishing in 3rd but, again, the margin between 1st and 5th or 6th this year is VERY narrow on the women's side.) -
"
Why they will win: Depth. Colorado’s recipe for victory at NCAAs is the same one they used to win the Nuttycombe meet on this course seven weeks ago. In that race, Colorado put four in the top 20 and six in the top 40 — they had six in before anyone else in the field had five. Colorado’s hope is that in a big field like NCAAs, they can wind up with five women in the top 50 and win with the best #4 and #5 runners in the field.

Why they won’t: Firepower. This Colorado team is very similar to the 2016 and 2017 squads. Both of them were built to win the same way — with depth — and that depth was on display at NCAAs.

In 2016, Colorado had the best #4 and #5 runners in the field.

In 2017, Colorado had the best #5 in the field and was 0.3 of a second away from having the best #4 (Makena Morley finished just behind San Francisco’s Marie Bouchard).

The problem? Both of those teams finished third.
...
")

Women's individual - http://www.letsrun.com/news/2018/11...-monson-look-derail-ednah-kurgats-repeat-bid/ (As noted above, most of the expectation is that one of two New Mexico women will probably win, with a Wisconsin runner the main underdog pick. However, Dani Jones is also mentioned. "Dani Jones, senior, Colorado: The winner of the Pac-12 title the last two years, Jones was 10th at NCAAs last year and 4th at Nuttycombe this year. Her savage kick (4:07 1500 pb) allowed her to capture NCAA 3k and DMR titles in 2017. Kelati, Kurgat, et al. would be smart to drop her before the final straight as she’s tough to beat in a sprint.")

On the Men's side, 8th ranked CU don't get much if any mention on the champion-contender side in the Letsrun articles linked to below, and I'd say if they get close to a podium finish (which is top 4 in cross country) would be a GREAT result for the team. Note that 2 defending champion Northern Arizona is a pretty heavy favorite, but less so than normal years, because BYU is also considered a ridiculously strong and deep team that would have won in most previous years.
(Note this is similar to last year, where the thought is BYU went out a little hard to stay with the Lumberjacks, and burned out a little late to "only" finish 3rd, with Portland snagging the runner-up spot in a pretty major upset.)

Men's team preview - http://www.letsrun.com/news/2018/11...orthern-arizona-lumberjacks-chase-three-peat/
Men's individual preview (Re the top-ranked Buff individual, it does mention "Joe Klecker, junior, Colorado: The Mountain Region champion the last two years, Klecker finished a disastrous 67th last year. Look for him to make up for that in a big way, as the 13:30 5k man has a good shot to finish in the top 10." ) - http://www.letsrun.com/news/2018/11...grant-fisher-can-hold-off-nau-duo-baxter-day/

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

As would be expected, the company broadcasting the race, Flotrack.org, also has a lot of content.

They actually went and asked 25 former NCAA cross country stars for their predictions for all the individual and team winners - https://www.flotrack.org/articles/6267765-former-ncaa-stars-make-their-xc-predictions
(3 (but none of the same 3) predict Dani Jones or Colorado winning.)

Women's preview - https://www.flotrack.org/articles/6...e-down-new-mexico-kelati-goes-for-first-title
(Re the Buffs I think, (like the below also notes), that Ms. Hurta's (2 out of 2 All-American years so far for the junior) finish is the most obvious determining factor as to how high (if at all) on the podium the Buffs end up finishing, although either in a positive or negative way, it will probably also be various other runners finishing 5-10 spots higher or lower (which can sometimes be determined by as little as 5-10 seconds over an 19+ minute race) which will determine the podium positiion for all the teams.) -
"
Colorado cruised through their regional meet, crossing the finish line literally holding hands. Dani Jones is a guaranteed top-10 finisher and Makena Morley could join her as a single-digit point scorer. Sage Hurta was Colorado’s third runner in the Nuttycombe victory, but was 28th at Pac-12s and didn’t race at regionals.

Colorado’s season was a bit jumpy (at least from a rankings perspective). They shot to the top after the Nuttycombe upset, raced a B team at Pre-Nationals, dropped after finishing second to Oregon at their conference meet, and then held steady after qualifying behind New Mexico at their regional. If the September version of Hurta is on the line on Saturday, Colorado’s odds increase. If not, someone from their pack the will need to bridge the gap between Colorado’s second and third runners.
"

Men's preview - https://www.flotrack.org/articles/6267572-nau-goes-for-three-fishermcdonald-finally-meet
(Buffs not mentioned- hope this kind of thing makes the men HUNGRY! I'd say the main question mark for the Buffs, as Coach Wetmore has also since before the season even started, is that (at least based on the season to date) they probably only have 5 runners who can finish high enough to have the Buffs contend for a podium spot (vs. the favored schools like NAU or BYU which have 12+ runners to choose from), so there is no margin of error for those 5. And, all 5 need to have GOOD to GREAT races to have a chance at the podium, with the 4th and 5th finishers position being especially important.)

I think in the past I've seen some drone flyovers before races, which are always cool to see and get at least a LITTLE idea of what the course feels like. I haven't seen that yet, but Flotrack does have a couple basic videos showing the basic course for each of the races-

Women's 6K -
https://www.flotrack.org/video/6239516-thomas-zimmer-xc-course-6k-flyover

Men's 10K -
https://www.flotrack.org/video/6239519-thomas-zimmer-xc-course-10k-flyover

And, I did, after writing the above, find the below from host Wisconsin which, although not covering every step, at least gives an idea of some of the ups, downs, narrows and turns the course will have, which of course will I'm sure be extra spicy should any snow, slush or run make the course sloppy-
 
Nice cubuffs.com is giving the XC teams quite a bit of coverage.

Here's another article, this one on senior Makena Morley-


Direct link - https://cubuffs.com/news/2018/11/15/cross-country-unfinished-business-looms-for-morley-at-ncaas.aspx

"
BOULDER – When Makena Morley graduated high school, she did not move far away from her hometown of Big Fork, Mont., heading to the University of Montana in Missoula, Mont. to continue her running career.

But after just one semester, which included winning the individual title at the Big Sky Conference Championships, she knew she needed a change. And thankfully for the University of Colorado, she had several connections that helped bring her to Boulder.
...

"Cross has never turned out how I'd like it to be, especially at the end," she said. "I have raced okay during the middle of the seasons, but I have just never done what I wanted to do at nationals."

But more importantly, Morley wants to help her team win a national championship.

"More than anything, I'd like to help my team win," she said. "This is the last chance for Dani, Val and I, along with a couple other seniors, so I want to go for that."

In the last couple of years, the Buffs have been the top-ranked team in the USTFCCCA Coaches Poll heading into the championship, but this year they are tied for third with Boise State behind New Mexico and Oregon. Being the underdog could be just what Colorado needs.

"I think there are four teams out there that could all win and it's basically who has the best day that day, and I hope it's us," Morley said. "I also think it's better to not come in ranked number one. It's nice to be ranked high but it takes a little of the pressure off because we have obviously never quite raced to our potential at nationals."
"
 
I live not far from Madison. While it's cloudy and gray, it isn't snowing. It isn't predicted to snow until evening. Hopefully both Buffs teams will be off the course by the time it snows.
 
buffgal said:
I live not far from Madison. While it's cloudy and gray, it isn't snowing. It isn't predicted to snow until evening. Hopefully both Buffs teams will be off the course by the time it snows.
Click to expand...

With the races being tomorrow, I'd assume all the runners will have some wet feet with (at least per https://weather.com/weather/today/l/Madison+WI+USWI0411:1:US) 1-3 inches of snow expected overnight, but it of course can almost always be worse.
(Buff great Sara (now) Slattery posted the below Instagram of support describing what sounds like a tough race she and the other runners ran that year (although I'm sure the Championship made it feel worth it).)

 
Current weather status, 90 miles east of Madison. It's snowing lightly, about 2 inches on the ground and it's cold. Here it's 30, with a feels like temperature of 21.

Go Buffs!
 
It's CHAMPIONSHIPS DAY!



And, (1) looks like Buff volunteer asst. coach (and one of the best distance runners in U.S. history) Jenny Simpson is there in support and (2) looking like REAL cross country weather. Go get'um Buffs!

 
The Live Results AND entries link I put at the bottom of the original post has now whittled down the potential participants down to declared athletes only (https://www.rtspt.com/events/ncaa/d1xc18/declared.pdf). For the Buffs, the list is down to 8 women, and the men are down to what I assume has to be the final 7.

Thankfully, looks like all the familiar names I'd expect, which I assume at this point means there haven't been any last minute injuries. (As I mentioned in the LONG 2nd post I made in this thread, Letsrun.com in their preview said that Coach Wetmore told them a lot/ most of the team was sick as of Tuesday; hopefully whatever it was was minor and all is well that way.)

Declared Women (1st number I believe may(???) be their bib #''s?)-
51 Holly Bent F FR Colorado
52 Mackenzie Caldwell F SR Colorado
53 Val Constien F SR Colorado
54 Sage Hurta F JR Colorado
55 Dani Jones F SR Colorado
57 Makena Morley F SR Colorado
58 Tabor Scholl F JR Colorado
60 Tayler Tuttle F SR Colorado

Men:
442 John Dressel M JR Colorado
444 Ryan Forsyth M SR Colorado
445 Ethan Gonzales M SR Colorado
446 Eduardo Herrera M SO Colorado
447 Joe Klecker M JR Colorado
448 Gus Newcomb M FR Colorado
450 Paxton Smith M SO Colorado
 
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Buffs showing in 1st at the 4K with a group of 20-25 with a little gap. 3 Buffs in that group.
 
Unless the stats are way off- 5 Buffs showing in top 24. It's looking good for the team!
 
Sooooo incredible!!!!! Gooo Buffs!!!

CU scoring was SO strong you could take away Dani Jones’ finish and CU would still win over the favorite NM, as our top 6 finish in the top 30!!! That is a beat down victory!!!

Just wish it was Nationally Televised as it should be...
 
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Below is a capture of the (still unofficial) results for the Buffs and 2nd place New Mexico. With the top 40 of each gender earning All-American status, SIX of the All-Americans on the women's side will be Golden Buffaloes!

Womens XC top 2 team finishes.png
 
In a truly just world, this upset would be a headline on ESPN all day!!! National Champs and running away with it!!!
 
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