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Week nine of the college football season is officially upon us! The Buffs play in the nightcap slot this week, kicking off at 8:15 pm local against Cincinnati on Saturday. That means we’ll have plenty of time to watch football in the morning/afternoon, so why not spice it up by betting a little bit?
The Ralphie Report guys are here to help you out with that. We’ll give you our best bets for the week, so you don’t have to rack your brain looking at all the lines on your sports book. We also went 6-1 on our picks last week, so we’re on a bit of a hot streak...
Bet Kansas State to cover the -9.5-point spread against Kansas.
A -9.5-point spread is pretty high to be betting on covering, but I think the Wildcats have it in them this week. K-State hit its stride, beating a good Colorado team on the road and killing West Virginia in Morgantown last weekend. Their rushing attack is potent and Avery Johnson is starting to settle in at quarterback, so I think this team is about to reach their peak.
Plus, Kansas is not good. Jalon Daniels has struggled greatly with turnovers. Their defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed in the 4th quarter and their season is officially lost. They’re going to be playing in Manhattan for the Sunflower Showdown, which won’t be an easy environment to play in. I just don’t think the Jayhawks have it in them, so give me Kansas State to win by double digits—sorry KU fans. At least basketball season starts soon!
Bet Utah to cover the -4.5-point spread against Houston
Houston is awful, let’s just get that out of the way. They were never supposed to be good this year in their first season under Willie Fritz, but they’re just an incomplete football team. They don’t really do anything particularly well and got blown out by another bad team in Kansas last weekend.
Utah may not have a quarterback with Cam Rising out for the season, but they still have the talent on this team to make this game uncompetitive. As long as Isaac Wilson (yes, he’s Zach Wilson’s little brother) can distribute the ball to Dorian Singer and Brant Kuithe, and Micah Bernand can work on the ground, this is gonna be a blowout. This is a no-brainer bet, in my opinion.
Bet BYU Moneyline (+110) vs UCF
Let’s flashback to a few weeks ago when the Buffs played the Knights in Orlando. What did we see from UCF? A middling secondary, a struggling front seven, and a running game that was stifled by CU’s defensive line.
BYU has a good QB and good receivers, and is fully capable of airing out the ball. They have a better rushing attack than CU (although probably everyone does), and a defensive line that’s near the same caliber as CU’s. This matchup doesn’t look great for UCF, so bet on BYU.
Plus, UCF has benched KJ Jefferson and is rolling with an inexperienced Jacurri Brown under center. UCF winning would help the Buffs greatly on their quest for the Big 12 title game in Dallas, but I’m not sure if that’s in the cards this week.
Bet #21 Mizzou to cover the +18-point spread against #15 Alabama
After three really tough weeks for the Kalen DeBoer-led Crimson Tide, Vegas is still high on Bama. I’m not so convinced. Alabama’s defense hasn’t been great, although they looked much better last week against Tennessee. Their offense also had trouble scoring points against the Vols and South Carolina.
I don’t think Mizzou’s defense is that great and I think Bama will win this game convincingly, but that 18-point spread is ridiculous. There’s too much talent on that Mizzou roster for me to not bet on the Tigers to cover. Brady Cook has underwhelmed by most standards this season, but he’s still a productive SEC-caliber QB. The Tigers also have a top-five receiver in the nation in Luther Burden. Bama has had some trouble with their secondary in their recent three-game stretch, so the Cook-to-Burden connection could be in for a big day on Saturday in Tuscaloosa.
Remember, the Gamecocks hung in with Bama in Tuscaloosa and gave them a run for their money. What’s to say that Mizzou won’t at least keep it within two touchdowns?
Bet #20 Illinois to cover the +21.5-point spread against #1 Oregon
Okay, hear me out on this one. I know Oregon is the #1 team in the country and Illinois is... well... Illinois, BUT I think the Fighting Illini will keep this one closer than most do.
Oregon has shown that they’re mortal this season against FCS Idaho and Boise State. The Ducks have found their footing since then and deserve their ranking of #1 in the nation, but don’t sleep on Illinois.
I know when I mention Illinois football your first thought is mediocrity and basketball, but this year’s team is different. They’re a damn tough group. Quarterback Luke Altmyer has done a good job distributing the ball and their rushing attack is underrated, especially for Big Ten standards. Their front seven is stout and capable of stopping Oregon's ground game.
The real question is will Illinois be able to slow Oregon’s prolific passing attack? I don’t think so and I am confident in Oregon winning this game, but not by 3+ touchdowns. Give me Illinois to cover.
About the Buffs...
You might have noticed that I didn’t include CU in my best best, and that’s for good reason. I just don’t like any of the lines, at all. The initial opening line of CU -3.5 was GREAT, but that has since ballooned to -6.5 in recent days. That’s too high for me. I think the Buffs will win by a touchdown, but that .5-point wiggle room from the -6.5-point spread is too risky for me.
The over/under of 57 points seems about right for me too. With the Moneyline sitting at only -245, it’s not even worth your time and money to bet on. It would be better to save it for the better bets above honestly.
by RylandScholes
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