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Revenue for 2011

Scotty,

Correct me if I am wrong here:
-they are still floating us the $7mm for the exit fee, we still get a Conf Champ. Game distribution which should be on the order of 1-1.5 million?
-We are picking up 2mm from the OSU game?
-The pac-10 is still under it's old revenue deal so we'd only be looking at 1/12th of 53 million even if we got a full share?

The issue really comes down to cash flow timing, we will be "short" in 2010-11 by the $6.9MM withheld from the Big 12, so the Pac-12 floating us the exit fee isn't the same as a revenue distribution, it merely makes up for the lack of distribution that the Big 12 will not be "giving" us in the early summer/spring of 2012 for the 2011-12 sports year.

Starting in the 2011-12 revenue year is where CU will fall short until things are officially worked out...

The CCG "should" generate about $10 million in revenue (between TV and other sources), typically the games cost about $1 million to put on. That leaves $9 million to divide among 12 members equally (as was stated by Larry Scott). That means CU's take would be around $750k. Those funds would be part of the 2011-12 distribution that we would get in 2013 (not sure when exactly the Pac will distribute funds).

The lost home game is a net $1.3MM loss for CU, so it is only a partial problem, which is offset by the $1.4MM from the Ohio State game (less some hefty travel costs as well). That is certainly a plus, but only a partial replacement of the money we stand to miss out on if the conference doesn't kick in some.

So, with no Big 12 distribution for 2011-12 season, we are only guaranteed to get (estimates only):
Football Ticket revenue: $8.5 MM if we only have 4 home conference games + "Rocky Mountain Showdown" (CU gets 60% IIRC)
M&W Basketball tickets: $1MM
Game Guarantees: $1.4 MM (Ohio State game gross revenue)
School media rights: $900K
Football Concession/Parking/Programs: $375K (again based on 5 home games)
M&W Basketball Conc/Park/Programs: $135K
Advertisements/Sponsorships: $3MM
Camps/Other: $350K

Contributions: $1.4MM
Student Fees: $1.5MM
Direct Institutional Support: $1.6MM
Endowments: $6.2MM

That takes us to $26.36MM in revenues, while we still will have $35MM + in expenses (not to mention any buyouts for coaches, or increased salaries for new coaches over existing salaries).

The $9MM "hole" is approximately the Big 12 revenue distribution that we are used to getting. The Pac-12 has not yet agreed to give us a 100% share of 2011 revenues. The Pac-12 TV contract is not updated until the 2012 season, so no new revenues are yet available to help offset another "mouth to feed". Utah will play in the Pac-12 in 2011 but will not receive any share of the conference revenues unless "new revenue" is created (by their TV partners bumping the revenue paid out of the generosity in their hearts). Would the 10 members of the Pac-10 be willing to drop from an average $5.3 MM payout to $4.8MM payout (1/11th) for the 2011 season? Most of those schools are struggling to maintain their existing sports programs and face huge scholarship increases as it is.

A second BCS team would net an additional $4.5MM for the conference, of which $400K would be CU's share if they received a 1/11th share.

So the "best case" scenario without an adjustment to the TV deal is for CU to get 1/11th in 2011, two Pac-12 teams make the BCS, the combination of which would help offset $5.2 MM of the $9MM shortfall, leaving $3.8MM left for donors and the school to pick up.

Our best hope is for ABC/ESPN to "kickstart" negotiations for the Pac-12's future TV deal by offering up at least a $12MM increase for the 2011 season.

The current contracts are:
Football - ABC/ESPN $25MM/year for 20 games per year (first choice of matchups)
Football - FSN $19.4 MM/year for 13 games on FSN and 5 sublicensed to Versus (18 total of "second choice" games)
Basketball - ABC/ESPN $8.75MM/year (not sure the exact details).

So, the ABC/ESPN payout of $33.75MM to the conference, would need a 36% increase to get a $12MM bump. That would give all current members at least a slight increase while getting CU at least $5.4 MM distribution (remember Utah gwould get a share in 2011 if the TV revenues increased).

Is CU and Utah's football and basketball rights going to enrich the conference and TV partners to the tune of $12MM for the 2011 season? maybe

Would ABC/ESPN offer up that deal if they felt threatened by Fox or Comcast/NBC for future contracts? not sure
 
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Oh yeah, and I messed up in my earlier post. I had looked at an old schedule, so we don't have any more non-conference home game options.
9/13: @ Hawaii
9/17: CSU (Invesco)
9/24: @ Ohio State
10/8: Fresno State

plus 9 conference games = 13.

So, unless the Pac-12 gives us 5 home games we "lose" the benefit of the Hawaii road game by having our "13th Game" as a road game (Ohio State) and the other home game is the "neutral site" game at Invesco vs CSU. Cancelling the road game to Hawaii doesn't do any good because we would still be at 12 other games, the NCAA limit.
 
Possible money maker -- home game at Folsom (with no return) with Northern Colorado. Could come to near capacity if we "sell" it to NCU students/grads (like getting transportation arranged), and could sell to Denver TV.
 
Possible money maker -- home game at Folsom (with no return) with Northern Colorado. Could come to near capacity if we "sell" it to NCU students/grads (like getting transportation arranged), and could sell to Denver TV.

No room on the 2011 schedule. We have 4 OOC games (Hawaii, CSU, Ohio State, and Fresno State) plus a 9 game conference slate = 13 max games for the season.
 
There's so much talk that I don't know what's true any more. Yesterday people were saying that Fresno got cancelled to make room for the Ohio State game. People were also saying that Ringo got his story wrong. I don't know what to believe.
 
There's so much talk that I don't know what's true any more. Yesterday people were saying that Fresno got cancelled to make room for the Ohio State game. People were also saying that Ringo got his story wrong. I don't know what to believe.

I read that they moved the Fresno game to Oct 8 when they scheduled the Buckeye game. Wierd to cancel it, unless it conflicts with conference scheduling. But then we will be shopping for another home OOC team to replace Fresno and probably won't get that good of an opponent (maybe they don't want a tough one?) The obvious spot would be the 9/8 slot that has Cal right now. Talk about moving that back to normal "conference game weeks" might make that one open.

In either case it doesn't get us an additional home game if we drop Fresno and replace them with someone else.

And I really hope that Ringo's report turns out to be "chicken little", but it isn't "false". He stated that "as things currently stand" we won't get a distribution from the Pac in 2011. So, until it is officially announced, there is a valid concern there. Of course the AD is aware of the situation and probably already knows something of what will happen, but Ringo is stating that fans/supporters shouldn't rush to judgement that we are "OK" financially next season until things get worked out. 2012 is a different story.

Even if we get a share of the existing 2011 revenues, we will still have some shortfalls as it isn't enough to offset what we are used to getting from the Big 12. Add in $2MM buyout of Hawkins and we have a bigger gap to overcome.

Hopefully the buyout money that was "in place" last season (confirmed by Chris Fowler and others) is still available (and hopefully growing due to the Pac-12 move) and will be more than enough to get through the cash crunch. It sucks that those millions can't be used on facilities, new coaching salaries, etc. but we will have to do what we can going forward.
 
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