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WBB Arizona @ CU
- Thread starter PAC MAN
- Start date
Another poster and I have had problems all season watching the live stream and getting sound. After a twitter rant, I have to thank Curtis Snyder for getting the issue fixed tonight. It's long in to the season, but as long as it stays fixed, it's good.
Kennedy Leonard, Alexis Robinson and Haley Smith in double figure scoring. Buffs hit free throws when it mattered down the stretch. Ariana Freeman had a career high in rebounds.
And we got a W! Have to see what happens Sunday. Arizona State easily handled Utah tonight.
Also, UCLA got upset by Washington State tonight.
Kennedy Leonard, Alexis Robinson and Haley Smith in double figure scoring. Buffs hit free throws when it mattered down the stretch. Ariana Freeman had a career high in rebounds.
And we got a W! Have to see what happens Sunday. Arizona State easily handled Utah tonight.
Also, UCLA got upset by Washington State tonight.
First of all congratulations to the Buffs in getting a conference win! They have been very scarce and difficult to come by the past two seasons. This is just the Buffs third conference win in two seasons. Right now the Buffs are 3-18 for Pac-12 games in the 2015-16 and 2016-17 seasons.
The Buffs certainly needed this conference win. Arizona is the only team with a Sagarin rating lower than the Buffs. Per the Sagarin ratings this game was a matchup of Arizona being the 122nd best team in NCAAW with a rating of 70.96 versus Colorado being the 47nd best team in NCAAW with a rating of 81.35. Arizona is the only team that Colorado has a rating better than in the Pac-12. Arizona has the 12th lowest Sagarin rating, and Colorado has the 11th. The ratings gap from Colorado to Arizona is about the same as the ratings gap from Oregon State to Colorado, to put that in context.
So let's give Arizona, which is just an awful Pac-12 team some credit. Arizona really played well in the second half, as I think the Buffs were only +1 in the second half. Unfortunately, for Colorado, we don't get to play Arizona again on the road. Which is one of the significant reasons the Buffs are going to have a tough time finding conference wins this season. Every other team in the Pac-12 has a better rating than the Buffs, other than Arizona and even WITH the current 3.11 home court ratings bonus CU will only manage a better composite home rating than Southern Cal and Washington State. So on paper, CU should win those two games. Any other conference wins this season at home, based on how the Sagarin NCAAW ratings currently look, would be an upset for CU. Any road win whatsoever would be an upset for CU. So on paper this is just one of three games the Buffs would be favored to win this season in Pac-12 play.
So let's enjoy this one. Hat's off to Arizona for the effort. Congratulations to our Buffs for getting the win. Tough to come by in this conference. Congratulations to JR Payne for getting her first Pac-12 conference win.
It will be interesting to see if the Buffs can get a dead cat bounce ratings improvement from the win. They've taking a beating of late in the Sagarin ratings from the losses. Arizona per the ratings is about on par with the team JR Payne was coaching last season: Santa Clara. Arizona has a 70.96 rating and Santa Clara currently has a 70.29 rating. If JR Payne can beat Stanford with a team like Arizona, the Buffs have a great coach. This was a great hire, and this coach will restore this program back to national prominence and relevance. I think the AP ranking this non-conference season was a bit premature, and ignored the Buffs non-conference strength of schedule. That being said, the Buffs did beat a ranked team in UK, and just won a Pac-12 game after winning only two all last season, losing the other sixteen.
Arizona State is next. Sagarin has them as the 25th best team in the country by rating at 86.98, and the Buffs at 47th with a rating of 81.35 with the 3.11 home court advantage will bump to 84.46. The Buffs aren't favored to win the game…but that's why you play the games. That's a close enough ratings gap that it should be a ball game if the Buffs show up.
Arizona State beat Utah tonight. Arizona had the 86.98 rating and Utah had the 85.66 rating. However, Utah had the 3.11 home court bonus in their favor and still lost 44-66. Utah is a better team than Arizona State per the ratings with the home court bonus, and just got destroyed. Utah is definitely a better team than the Buffs have been the past couple of weeks. Hopefully the Buffs don't have those same offensive struggles versus the Sun Devils. I can't imagine the Buffs barely putting up 40pts but who knows what might happen. Maybe this is a one step forward two steps back kind of thing. Right now I'm intimidated by Arizona State. I think if they trounced Utah by 22 points they should annihilate our Buffs. However, again…that's why they play the games.
The Buffs enjoyed a 46 to 35 rebounding advantage over Arizona, which is nice to see considering the Buffs struggles to rebound of late. Leonard took about 1/4 of the Buffs attempts on the night, but that's fine. The Buffs as a team only shot 37% whereas Leonard was shooting 6/15 on the night for 40%. The Buffs were marginally better off with her taking every shot versus the team (in theory). However, I'd sure like to see her play when her teammates are all hitting. Leonard found 9 assists on a night where the team wasn't shooting particularly well against a very poor Pac-12 team. I'd like to think she could have had an unreal night distributing had her teammates just hit some shots. Leonard did have 4 TOs on the 9 Assists which isn't the ratio we'd like to see, but I don't think anyone understands how difficult it is to run the point on a bad team. In terms of the starting PG roles, it should be said that Leonard probably has the toughest job running the offense of just about every program, save Arizona. Its hard to figure out how to get blood from a turnip, as they say. Correal only played fifteen minutes with only three fouls. That seems peculiar. We need her playing long minutes throughout the Pac-12 portion of the schedule or the rebounding disparity could get ugly. Haley Smith was one rebound away from a double-double. As Leonard was as well needing one more Assist. That would have been awesome with two double-doubles. One thing to note, last season Robinson played a lot more minutes. This year Robinson is playing significantly fewer minutes than Leonard in the Backcourt. In this game it was 36' for Leonard and 27' for Robinson. There are 80' of Guard minutes to allocate in the game, and Caylao-Do had 14' herself. Leonard and Caylao-Do missed every three pointer they took. For whatever strange reason both have had tough nights shooting together when one or the other has a tough night, for some games. Maybe that's just a sign of good perimeter defense in match ups this season? Both can certainly shoot well. Watts played 7' and had four rebounds and three points. Good for her. Freeman only played 13' but dominated to the tune of eight rebounds and four points.
JR Payne really leaned on Ellis, Leonard and Smith to play the majority of the minutes in the game. Jones played for about 3'. The bench only had thirteen attempts total and nine points. I'm not sure this Buffs team is talented enough, but we'd certainly like to see more balanced scoring. I can't imagine the pressure on Leonard to have to carry the bulk of the scoring load all season. With the defense keying in on her, and her passing lanes, it can't be easy for her to find good looks and to find good passes for teammates. However, she did it once again. She's a heck of a basketball player with the 20point 9 Assist 3 Rebound effort. She doesn't have to be one of the bestest players in the conference (there are just incredible players in this conference) for us to appreciate just how really really good she is. I think that point has been lost recently. I think we can all agree she's really really good. I'd certainly hate to see the state of this Buffs team if she were to miss a game. It could get ugly very quickly. This was just not a good Arizona team, and did the Buffs really show deserving the lofty national ranking from earlier in the season?
Arizona played AP #21 California to a home Loss -10 result
Arizona played AP #13 Stanford to a home Loss -22 result
Arizona played unranked Colorado to a road Loss -9 result
I think the Buffs have some things to work on, but considering the Buffs won the game, we shouldn't nitpick not winning by more at home. Right now, let's just enjoy every win we can get because on paper there are only three in conference play.
As fans, if you aren't getting out for these games you really need to. We need to get attendance back to where it used to be. This program is back on the upswing people. I'd really like to see everyone come back and support this team through these tough times. These players really are playing their hearts out and doing their best. The Pac-12 is just a very very tough conference to play basketball in. Still the #1 Conference per the Sagarin ratings in ALL three conference metrics.
Congratulations Buffs! Congratulations JR Payne!
Let's put together a run of wins now! Create a culture of winning. 'Sko Buffs!
The Buffs certainly needed this conference win. Arizona is the only team with a Sagarin rating lower than the Buffs. Per the Sagarin ratings this game was a matchup of Arizona being the 122nd best team in NCAAW with a rating of 70.96 versus Colorado being the 47nd best team in NCAAW with a rating of 81.35. Arizona is the only team that Colorado has a rating better than in the Pac-12. Arizona has the 12th lowest Sagarin rating, and Colorado has the 11th. The ratings gap from Colorado to Arizona is about the same as the ratings gap from Oregon State to Colorado, to put that in context.
So let's give Arizona, which is just an awful Pac-12 team some credit. Arizona really played well in the second half, as I think the Buffs were only +1 in the second half. Unfortunately, for Colorado, we don't get to play Arizona again on the road. Which is one of the significant reasons the Buffs are going to have a tough time finding conference wins this season. Every other team in the Pac-12 has a better rating than the Buffs, other than Arizona and even WITH the current 3.11 home court ratings bonus CU will only manage a better composite home rating than Southern Cal and Washington State. So on paper, CU should win those two games. Any other conference wins this season at home, based on how the Sagarin NCAAW ratings currently look, would be an upset for CU. Any road win whatsoever would be an upset for CU. So on paper this is just one of three games the Buffs would be favored to win this season in Pac-12 play.
So let's enjoy this one. Hat's off to Arizona for the effort. Congratulations to our Buffs for getting the win. Tough to come by in this conference. Congratulations to JR Payne for getting her first Pac-12 conference win.
It will be interesting to see if the Buffs can get a dead cat bounce ratings improvement from the win. They've taking a beating of late in the Sagarin ratings from the losses. Arizona per the ratings is about on par with the team JR Payne was coaching last season: Santa Clara. Arizona has a 70.96 rating and Santa Clara currently has a 70.29 rating. If JR Payne can beat Stanford with a team like Arizona, the Buffs have a great coach. This was a great hire, and this coach will restore this program back to national prominence and relevance. I think the AP ranking this non-conference season was a bit premature, and ignored the Buffs non-conference strength of schedule. That being said, the Buffs did beat a ranked team in UK, and just won a Pac-12 game after winning only two all last season, losing the other sixteen.
Arizona State is next. Sagarin has them as the 25th best team in the country by rating at 86.98, and the Buffs at 47th with a rating of 81.35 with the 3.11 home court advantage will bump to 84.46. The Buffs aren't favored to win the game…but that's why you play the games. That's a close enough ratings gap that it should be a ball game if the Buffs show up.
Arizona State beat Utah tonight. Arizona had the 86.98 rating and Utah had the 85.66 rating. However, Utah had the 3.11 home court bonus in their favor and still lost 44-66. Utah is a better team than Arizona State per the ratings with the home court bonus, and just got destroyed. Utah is definitely a better team than the Buffs have been the past couple of weeks. Hopefully the Buffs don't have those same offensive struggles versus the Sun Devils. I can't imagine the Buffs barely putting up 40pts but who knows what might happen. Maybe this is a one step forward two steps back kind of thing. Right now I'm intimidated by Arizona State. I think if they trounced Utah by 22 points they should annihilate our Buffs. However, again…that's why they play the games.
The Buffs enjoyed a 46 to 35 rebounding advantage over Arizona, which is nice to see considering the Buffs struggles to rebound of late. Leonard took about 1/4 of the Buffs attempts on the night, but that's fine. The Buffs as a team only shot 37% whereas Leonard was shooting 6/15 on the night for 40%. The Buffs were marginally better off with her taking every shot versus the team (in theory). However, I'd sure like to see her play when her teammates are all hitting. Leonard found 9 assists on a night where the team wasn't shooting particularly well against a very poor Pac-12 team. I'd like to think she could have had an unreal night distributing had her teammates just hit some shots. Leonard did have 4 TOs on the 9 Assists which isn't the ratio we'd like to see, but I don't think anyone understands how difficult it is to run the point on a bad team. In terms of the starting PG roles, it should be said that Leonard probably has the toughest job running the offense of just about every program, save Arizona. Its hard to figure out how to get blood from a turnip, as they say. Correal only played fifteen minutes with only three fouls. That seems peculiar. We need her playing long minutes throughout the Pac-12 portion of the schedule or the rebounding disparity could get ugly. Haley Smith was one rebound away from a double-double. As Leonard was as well needing one more Assist. That would have been awesome with two double-doubles. One thing to note, last season Robinson played a lot more minutes. This year Robinson is playing significantly fewer minutes than Leonard in the Backcourt. In this game it was 36' for Leonard and 27' for Robinson. There are 80' of Guard minutes to allocate in the game, and Caylao-Do had 14' herself. Leonard and Caylao-Do missed every three pointer they took. For whatever strange reason both have had tough nights shooting together when one or the other has a tough night, for some games. Maybe that's just a sign of good perimeter defense in match ups this season? Both can certainly shoot well. Watts played 7' and had four rebounds and three points. Good for her. Freeman only played 13' but dominated to the tune of eight rebounds and four points.
JR Payne really leaned on Ellis, Leonard and Smith to play the majority of the minutes in the game. Jones played for about 3'. The bench only had thirteen attempts total and nine points. I'm not sure this Buffs team is talented enough, but we'd certainly like to see more balanced scoring. I can't imagine the pressure on Leonard to have to carry the bulk of the scoring load all season. With the defense keying in on her, and her passing lanes, it can't be easy for her to find good looks and to find good passes for teammates. However, she did it once again. She's a heck of a basketball player with the 20point 9 Assist 3 Rebound effort. She doesn't have to be one of the bestest players in the conference (there are just incredible players in this conference) for us to appreciate just how really really good she is. I think that point has been lost recently. I think we can all agree she's really really good. I'd certainly hate to see the state of this Buffs team if she were to miss a game. It could get ugly very quickly. This was just not a good Arizona team, and did the Buffs really show deserving the lofty national ranking from earlier in the season?
Arizona played AP #21 California to a home Loss -10 result
Arizona played AP #13 Stanford to a home Loss -22 result
Arizona played unranked Colorado to a road Loss -9 result
I think the Buffs have some things to work on, but considering the Buffs won the game, we shouldn't nitpick not winning by more at home. Right now, let's just enjoy every win we can get because on paper there are only three in conference play.
As fans, if you aren't getting out for these games you really need to. We need to get attendance back to where it used to be. This program is back on the upswing people. I'd really like to see everyone come back and support this team through these tough times. These players really are playing their hearts out and doing their best. The Pac-12 is just a very very tough conference to play basketball in. Still the #1 Conference per the Sagarin ratings in ALL three conference metrics.
Congratulations Buffs! Congratulations JR Payne!
Let's put together a run of wins now! Create a culture of winning. 'Sko Buffs!
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My cheering is done from home as I live about 1000 miles from Coors. I have been cheering for this program since Day 1 way back in 1975 and I will cheer for it as long as I live.
I'm happy that after 3 seasons of languishing on the bench, Bri Watts is getting playing time. Kid deserved a better career than she has had. A lot of things could have been handled differently during her CU career, but she is getting in games this season and that makes me smile.
I'm happy that after 3 seasons of languishing on the bench, Bri Watts is getting playing time. Kid deserved a better career than she has had. A lot of things could have been handled differently during her CU career, but she is getting in games this season and that makes me smile.
CUoldtimer
Well-Known Member
Holy crap. The posts get longer and longer. Sagarin ratings mean very little right now as most teams have weak schedules up to this point. Those ratings mean way more in feb/March. That being said, we are going to have a hard time getting to 6 PAC 12 wins. We are extremely undermanned inside. Just hoping they keep improving and they lose due to lack of talent, not effort or mental mistakes like turnovers, etc.
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Deleted member 807
Guest
Congrats. Ladies on track.
CUoldtimer
Well-Known Member
I kept wondering in the 3rd if she was being too passive but she turned it on in the 4th with key baskets and assists. She was off from 3s but had a good game.
Buffballer
Well-Known Member
moved to new thread
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Try to keep straight which screen name you're loggin in under. It must be confusing.
I don't think I've ever met a more ignorant or outright disingenuous post on AllBuffs. Maybe you truly have zero higher level education, and understand absolutely nothing about advanced metrics, algorithms, or statistical models. If that is truly the case then why, exactly, are you offering an opinion about something in which you know absolutely nothing about? However, I doubt that. I think its pretty clear who you are, and more than one other AllBuff fan has commented that they've made the same conclusion. Just stop. Enough already. Believe what you want to believe in your heart, but please stop with all the disingenuous nonsense.
The Sagarin Ratings, of which there are many different component ratings on the site tell us many things, and are informative AND meaningful if one has even the most basic formal eduction in data models, statistics, or analytics:
http://www.rpiratings.com/womrate.php
There is the actual named Sagarin Rating, which itself is modeled to include and take into consideration the actual competitive level of the teams a team has played. So to the point that: "Sagarin ratings mean very little right now as most teams have weak schedules up to this point" nothing could actually be further from the truth. In fact, even on its face it just isn't even statistically probably that "most" teams have weak schedules. Even a cursory overview of the Sagarin site would shot you that EVERY team of the 349 Div-I NCAAW teams has a rating, and the Strength of Schedule is tracked, and furthermore a more detailed metric called Schedule Rating actually communicates EXACTLY the rating a given team would need to have won half the games the team actually played. Schedule Rating specifically takes into consideration where the games were played (home court or away, or neutral).
However, beyond that it is just profoundly disingenuous to suggest that in a data set that "most" of anything would be low. If we have 349 teams, exactly 174 have a lower strength of schedule than the mean, and exactly 174 have a higher strength of schedule than the mean. It could not be more disingenuous to suggest that "most" teams have a low strength of schedule. That's not even a statistical possibility. You know that. Many of use here believe you're just posting under a 2nd screen name continuing your narcissistic agenda in a completely disingenuous fashion.
The Sagarin ratings DEFINITIVELY are meaningful because they SPECIFICALLY control for strength of schedule. Sagarin ratings do not consider data from games from teams not in Div-I. Colorado has the 139th best SOS of the 349 Div-I NCAAW teams. Colorado currently has an 81.26 rating, but the Sagarin ratings were always an accurate reality check reminding us that the the Buffs were undefeated through the Wyoming game of non-conference that they really weren't as good as their AP rating suggested. Case in point, the Buffs are 11-3 with an 81.26 rating, but the Sagarin ratings tell us that the woeful Buffs non-conference schedule is so bad a team with a rating of 67.67 would still be 7-7, just four wins less. For context that woeful Boston College team we saw at the Omni Classic currently has a rating of 68.60. That Boston College team would have won 7 of the 11 games the Buffs have won.
So exactly the opposite of your point that the Sagarin ratings don't mean anything because of low SOS, every team has a different SOS. There is a team in NCAAW with the #1 top SOS, Which would actually be UCONN right now, and there is a team with the #349th the lowest of any Div-I team, that would be Jackson St. currently. The Sagarin ratings not only control for SOS, they specifically control for the quality of the opponent. That's innate in what the ratings actually mean. There could not be a more profoundly ignorant statement than to suggest that the ratings don't control or account for the variance in team strength or SOS, that's exactly what the ratings consider, account for, control for, and provide meaningful data as a result of. That's why variance in ratings, Schedule rating, and SOS ranking actually has meaning. The very opposite of what you suggested.
However, just as not every great basketball player is capable of playing at the highest level, such as in the Pac-12 not every person is capable or learned enough or had the opportunity to receive an education. Perhaps you're a high school graduate, and just a fan of the likes of Colorado and Stanford, Pac-12 schools. That would be ironic, but possible. Like an ignorant person posting things to an Ivy League fan forum. Just a little bit strange, but okay.
I don't believe that. I and others realize you're using multiple screen names at this point, and are completely disingenuous. Just stop.
CUoldtimer
Well-Known Member
If you could see how hard I'm laughing at you right now. I'm sure the mods can tell you in a private message that I'm not a relative of anybody on the team. I'm just a fan that thinks you're a poster with an agenda that posts the longest and most boring posts I've ever seen on any message board or social media.
CUoldtimer
Well-Known Member
Finally got thru this bs. My point was the sample size isn't great enough. That's why I said it will mean more later. It's like college football ratings after sept. Two thirds of the season to go, genius. If you were half as smart as you thought you were, you really would be a genius.
Yep. All of them are wonky right now. RPI, Sagarin, etc. Mostly because it's hard to factor in strength of schedule appropriately at the 1/3 point of the season.
Last night in MBB, Nevada was down 14 to New Mexico with under 2 minutes left... and won.
That is what I was referring to, but it was not to be in this game. All those 3's by Nevada were unreal!
What you truly don't understand is that there are more data points after just non-conference play in NCAAW basketball than there are after even non-conference, conference and postseason and bowl games are completed in College Football. The sample size is bigger, comparatively.
Where you are getting confused is thinking about polls in College Football versus ratings in College Basketball. There are not enough data points in College Football. That is never the problem in College Basketball. College Football has the problem of not enough teams playing enough other teams. Again not the problem in College Basketball. Teams in College Football don't even want to play all Div-I opponents. In the Sagarin NCAAW rankings games against non-Div-I opponents don't even count.
You made an erroneous statement that quite frankly couldn't have been more ignorant. Let it go. We all say stupid things at one time or another. Move on. Insulting people and name calling are even more profoundly ignorant. If you don't want to be called out for saying stupid stuff, don't. Insulting others doesn't change the conversation.
Just not true. The Sagarin ratings definitively factor in strength of schedule, up to and as-of every day games are played. Just because people don't understand statistics, data modeling and how to calculate an ELO rating please don't assume that other people don't. Not everything we don't understand is myth & magic. My goodness people if you're going to root for ol' CU maybe take a class or two on campus. Start with Statistics. These are inane points being made.
Which is why many fans were frustrated when CU was highly ranked, but learned fans that followed the Sagarin ratings knew that CU wasn't anywhere near that good of a team. Exactly because CU's strength of schedule wasn't good and thus they never could get a higher rating, and were grossly overrated in the AP poll and at the end the USA Today/Coach's votes.
You can't factor it in appropriately right now because the data is circular and we don't know how good anyone really is right now.
CUoldtimer
Well-Known Member
Now that's funny coming from you. Yes or no. Does Sag ratings mean more March 1 or January 1? I think you know the answer although you will probably write a book on here dodging the question. Go take statistics 101 again and pay attn to sample size this time. 12 or so non conference games with mostly patsies doesn't tell you near as much as a power 5 conference schedule.
CUoldtimer
Well-Known Member
Lol. You think anybody thought they were going to stay ranked? I knew they wouldn't by watching them. Their Sag ratings mean very little after 5 games. 10 games. Etc. You think they stay top 40 in Sag by end of the season? The answer would be no. Some of us actually played the game for 20 years and some of us look at numbers.
CUoldtimer
Well-Known Member
Nonsense. With the right numbers, formulas, etc., you can know within 5 games. Sarcasm.
