Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by wyobuff, Aug 20, 2013.
Anyone ever really get a chance to see him or know what he's capable of?
A really ****ing good one. He's gonna be scoring a lot for us.
What's your ppg prediction for him? I'm at 14
~10, but an efficient ~10. He's gonna be sharing minutes.
Jenkins is the one player I can't get a really good handle on his expectations for next year.
OK, I just want to go on record here with this...
In 2011, Alec Burks led the team with 20.5 ppg. Higgins scored 16.1. Levi & Marcus both had 11. No one else hit double digits.
In 2012, Carlon led the team with 12.6 ppg. Dre had 11.6, Austin has 11.1 and The Mayor had 10.0. No one else hit double digits.
Last year, The Mayor led the team withi 15.3 ppg. Ski (who many have bashed for last season) had 12.5. Dre had 10.9 and Josh had 10.2. No one else in double digits.
that's why 10 ppg is a lot :nod: rep goose ppl.
I like Jenkins - a lot. But there are WAY too many unknown variables to even accurately guess right now. Dre is gone, but his PPG will (IMO) easily be picked up by Scott & XJ. What about Spencer, is he going to score more this year? Ski? Gordon's going to get minutes. Is Jenkins even going to start? I mean, it's concievable that he may not even be the first wing off the bench.
Eventually, Jenkins is going to be a big scorer for us. We don't know if that's going to be this year, next or beyond.
If he can rebound and defend, he will get lots of chances to play, especially early in the season.
I could see him being a big part of our bench offense, and he provides something no one else on the team has proven capable of doing consistently (Mayor sometimes excepted): shoot the mid range to outside jumper.
It depends on how many minutes he gets. I think he will be one of the primary scorers off the bench, and he will average between 5-8 ppg if he gets 15-20 minutes/game, but he will be a very efficient scorer, and I think some games he will go off for 15+ points.
We have so many options this year in the scoring department that I can see us being a very balanced scoring team like 2012's team.
My guess is less than 4ppg and one of the last players off the bench. Thomas and Fletcher will be ahead of him imo
You are arguing with this guy:
The only thing right about that was the W over Wazzou
Honestly, have no damn clue how well Jenkins is going to do this year
I'm hoping he can average 4-6 ppg and has a few nights when he gives us a lift off the bench by hitting a couple bombs.
Statistically, that would be Xavier Talton 3x or 4x from this past season.
I think this is realistic. I just hope he does it on 45% shooting.
Jenkins was recruited as a shooter. If he contributes nothing else but two timely threes a game that would be extremely welcome.
I know he's very tall and long. I wonder how he will contribute in creating turnovers and on defense, especially since we will be pressing a lot this year.
this and also what Nik said.
Im still not sure what to think. It could be a situation like we had last year with sab & XJ. Jenkins could start for most of the non-conf season because he's more familiar with the system and will work better in it until one of the frosh wings proves themselves and gets comfortable in the system. That may happen, it may not. Tad may decide to stick with jenkins because he's a stronger defender and a comparable shooter, or he may decide to have jenkins come off the bench in conf play as an energetic 6th man, similar to the role that ski played during the 2011-2012 season.
Either way, It would be awesome if he was able to chip in about 7-9 pts/game (probably good for 5th/6th leading scorer over the season) and a few assists and a board or two.
There's not much in the way of points to go around as has been pointed out already, but a 7-9 pt effort is probably do-able, and a great improvement from what we had last year (offensively) coming off the bench.
Haha hopefully around 7. Probably less. There aren't a lot of minutes to go around.
Let's break this down a bit because it is important.
I'm sure JG has all the numbers about pace and shots per game that we took, but I'm gonna do it a bit different. here is how many SPG our guys took on average and their %
Booker: 12.7 (36.4%)
Spencer: 9.5 (41.5%)
Scott: 8.2 (48.6%)
XJ: 6.2 (51.5%)
Talton: 1.2 (48.7%)
Stalzer: 1.2 (38.7%)
So looking at this list, the only thing I can tell you is Scott and XJ will probably shoot more than they did last year? In 2012 Booker was taking a shot every 3 minutes (Spencer took a shot every four minutes). Fast forward to 2013 and Booker took a shot every two minutes and 30 seconds while Spencer took a shot about every 3 minutes and 3 seconds. I can see Booker backing off a bit, but only if he plays less than his 32 minutes per game last year.
Stalzer and Talton take about a shot per game, so even if neither play, it still doesn't add a lot of shots. I can see it being a wash with XJ and Scott shooting more.
Dre: 8.9 (48%)
Chen: 4 (41%)
Tunks: 1.4 (36.4%)
Adams: 2.1 (39.1%)
Now here is where jenkins will have potential to get a few extra shots per game. Right now from the group above you are talking about 16.4 shots per game. I think that the majority of us can agree that on opening day 4 of the 5 starters will be Spencer, Booker, Scott, and XJ. You can probably guess that the 5th starter will take between four and 8 shots per game.
So unless Jenkins is that 5th starter or we take more shots on offense thorugh more possesion, more offensive rebounds, less turnovers, etc. He is probably going to take 2 to four shots per game.
^^ He's a better shooter than everyone we lose and a better shooter than most still here. Add in his height and high release, he will be open way more than most players.
Great analysis, tante. Rep.
General rule of thumb is that player will score as many points as shots attempted. Considering that Jenkins is a good FT shooter and won't be asked to create shots, I'd expect that he'll be highly efficient and outscore the number of shots he gets by a little bit.
Simple .... points per game are dependent on the amount of time a player is on the court. With Boyle, the amount of time on court is dependent on how well a player is playing defense. I certainly hope he's worked on his D because we could really use an outside scoring threat.
that is only part of the formula.
What about Alec? He didn't play a lick of D and he played 77% of he available minutes.
Being really good on offense also helps. See ^^^Burks, Alec^^^
Good analysis Tante, Rep. It will be interesting to see how the shots per game work out this year.
A few thoughts:
1)I could see Booker shooting less b/c with any luck there will be more of an "offense" so Booker won't be stuck hucking up a terrible shot as the clock winds down.
2)There's the proverbial "uptempo" talk, if that actually pans out there should be more shots.
3)More depth should lead to more pressure defense and press which should also create more shots.
4)I could see (and I also pray) that Dinwiddie is more assertive on offense and takes the ball to the rack more, so his SPG could increase.
Boyle had that many options the first year he was here?
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