Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by DBT, Jan 12, 2011.
will need 20 or 21 which means a win or 2 in the Conference Tourney and 1 or 2 road upsets.
If we go 9-7 in the Big 12 to get to 20 wins, it's going to be hard for the committee to keep us out of the tourney.
if we do that, they will want us in the tourney just to showcase Burks and his 25 ppg average with numerous highlight dunks. :smile2:
ding ding ding. If we start at 4-1 in our 1st 4 conference games we should be good to go. This Mizzou was a great win and got us off to a great start.
ppl need to temper their expectations... the koolaid always flows strongest after a nice win.
9-7 in conference and an rpi at or below about 45-50 gets us on the bubble. 8-8 gets us in the discussion, but probably out.
20 wins by itself is a cosmetic number that is like passing for 2000 yards in football...a stat from bygone days. lots of team win 20 and miss the Dance, lots of teams make the Dance with less than 20.
exactly...9-7 just gets us on the bubble...nothing more. 10-6 improves our chances a lot, but still bubble. I say we need 10-6 conf record and 1 Big 12 Tournament win.
10-6 in the Big 12 would probably be good enough for 4th or 5th in the league. That's plenty good enough for the tournament.
9-7 should do the trick, I think. That would put us between 6th and 8th. The league usually puts in 7 teams, sometimes 8. It's a deep and talented league again this year.
Be careful, position in the conference doesn't guarantee a spot in the tournament. In '04 we finished with a 10-6 conference record, 4th in the league, and failed to make the tournament. Same thing happened in '06 when we finished 9-7, good for 5th, and still missed the dance. It's the overall "body of work," as the NCAA selection committee would want me to point out, that matters. San Francisco will definitely be viewed as a "bad loss", and time will tell on Harvard and Georgia (although the Bulldogs beating Kentucky really helps us out) With as weak a non-conference schedule as we played this season, an 11-4 non-con record means that it's an uphill climb to the big dance, regardless of our final conference record.
That said, 10-6 (21-10) with a win in the conference tourney should get us into the dance, IMO. Any less than 10 wins and we're playing in the NIT.
We need to be careful setting such high expectations. We need to not be disapointed in a NIT bid, in '06 (I think) we went to the NIT when we though we should be in the NCAA, we came out incredably flat and a Old Dominion team beat us here at CECC. We clearly showed that we were not that excited to be in the NIT, where we sould have been incredably excited just to be playing in March. I will be extremely happy if we make the NCAA, but a NIT bid I would also be very happy for, as I think we could possibly win the NIT, we wont win the NCAA, or at least I would put some serious money on that we wont win it all.
good examples. in 04, we are tied with Tech in the conference standings....beat them in Boulder but they beat us in essentially a "play-in" game in the conference tournament. they win the 2nd meeting, Tech gets the invite. Also, i remember thinking at the time that it didn't help that their coach was Bobby Knight and ours was Ricardo Patton vis a vis "ratings" for the NCAA. 06, another "play-in" game in the conference tournament with ATM. they win handily, get invited, we don't. it's not much solace but that Tech team made the Sweet 16 and the ATM squad as well (16) with Acie Law lost on a last second shot to Big Baby and LSU. Both of those CU teams were capable of winning a first round game at least.
06 was close but didn't cheese me off as badly as 04 (where i thought we got hosed in a big way and the RMK factor also worked against us). this also coming off the year we get Izzo and MSU in the first round (the worst draw you can get, a reg season underachieving Izzo team in the NCAA**).....Izzo's guys hit the boards like their hair is on fire, Ricardo's guys.....well.
if i thought we were going to have Burks for another year, the NIT wouldn't be a total disappointment given where we've been the last 5 years.....but, the NCAA would really, really mean a lot for the program going forward THIS year.
**if Morandais can make a friggin FT at Nebraska, we are out of that disaster and a better seed. Instead, well you know the rest.
what's Colorado's RPI ? I have a feeling that even with the win over Mizzou it's still too low at this point.
Statistically, RPI won't have much meaning for another couple weeks until conference play around the country is fully in swing. once we get games like Baylor, KSU, KU (twice), OK State on the books....we'll be in the picture as long as we hold serve at home and sneak some W on the road (OU, ISU, NU, etc.) here and there. i figure we need 3 road wins minimum this year to get to where we need to be.
We've gone over this before, RPI right now is completely irrelevant before conference play, the numbers are completely out of whack.
One of the main points I was thinking of has already been brought up, which is that we were left out with a 10-6 conference record in '04, therefore 9-7 is far from a guarantee of getting into the tourney. The big thing isn't so much how good your record is in conference, but more importantly who you beat in conference. If we get enough quality wins against the likes of KU, Misery, KSU, A&M, etc, then we'll be fine with 8 or 9 wins. In past years there have been a few grumblings about teams with .500 or even sub-500 records getting in over teams in the same conference with better conference records, and it always comes down to not only who you have beat but who was on your schedule, because the 12-team conferences have unbalanced conference schedules. Which bodes well for us, because we play 6 games against 3 of the better teams in the conference, therefore our 9-7 would look better than a 9-7 record from a team in the Big 12 South.
They could probably get in @ 9-7, but they had better get to the 3rd round of the conference tourney if they do. The '03 team went 9-7 and only won a game in the conference tourney(thx for the choke job K-State), then got knocked out in the 2nd round by Okie. What got them in that year was beating KU and Texas in Boulder that year. Both teams in the top 5, and both games on national tv. Also went undefeated at home in conference, and the only home loss was that debacle against Georgia.
Losing to both Pepperdine and Iowa State on the road didn't help in '04. Pepperdine didn't have any business being on the same floor as the Buffs, but Patton found a way to lose that game anyway. The Iowa State game was one of Patton's bigger choke jobs.
Don't they also weigh a lot more highly how you finish the season as opposed to how you start. Don't they look for teams that are hot down the finish. Also, didn't they add another play in slot or two this year? Oh well, its a long season. It's sure be nice if we could finish against KState tonight. Tied at half time and our O hasn't gotten really going yet.
They added 3 more teams so the field is now 68.
They win this game and that would give them two signature wins....and we always seem to play Kansas tough in Boulder
So, do back to back wins over top 20 teams, one at home and one on the road, help any?
Soicher leads off with the ****ing Broncos. Asshole.
Oh yeah it does. The selection committee looks at a lot of things -- road and neutral court wins are favorable. Wins against ranked foes are also favorable, especially when the opponent's RPI is considered.
gotta love the Denver media
I was waiting for sportscenter to show the buffs and they kept pushing it back. when they finally showed it, it was about 30 seconds long and they mispronounced levi's name they said leavy. what a bunch of punks.
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