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What's your prediction for our conference schedule?

The thing that's starting to give me a little more hope for the road games has nothing to do with the Buffs. So far, the trend has been that Pac-12 teams haven't been good at home in conference play.
 
I'm not seeing the improvement I'd hoped for. That includes coaching, QB play, OL, DL and, by default related to QB play, WR. WR criticism is probably unfair since guys are continually getting open only to not having throws come their way. That has to be frustrating.
 
DBT said:
Now that we've had a chance to evaluate the Buffs and our conference opponents, how do you think we will do?
Click to expand...

I just got done reading the threads about yesterdays game. I am going base my predictions off of those threads.

Oregon: They beat us by 62 points
Arizona St:. They beat us by 28 points
Arizona: They beat us by 42 points
Oregon St. They beat us by 14 points
UCLA They beat us by 56 points
Stanford They beat us by 42 points
USC They beat us by 56 points
Washington St: They beat us by 21 points
Utah: They beat us by 100 points.

Sefo gets suppended before Utah for clubbing a baby seal.
 
Buffnik said:
The thing that's starting to give me a little more hope for the road games has nothing to do with the Buffs. So far, the trend has been that Pac-12 teams haven't been good at home in conference play.
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Great point, it's been unexpected, we'll see if the trend holds up.
 
Duff Man said:
Can we at least admit road victories for this team have been very hard to come by? To me, that is the biggest question mark for this team going forward.
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I haven't said they weren't, but there's a difference between that and saying virtually impossible.

And actually 6-7 is most likely according to maths.

67% chance to beat WSU
55% chance to beat OSU
49% chance to beat Oregon
38% chance to beat Arizona
34% chance to beat Arizona State
35% chance to go to a bowl game

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/team/colorado-buffaloes/projections
 
'Tini said:
I haven't said they weren't, but there's a difference between that and saying virtually impossible.

And actually 6-7 is most likely according to maths.

67% chance to beat WSU
55% chance to beat OSU
49% chance to beat Oregon
38% chance to beat Arizona
34% chance to beat Arizona State
35% chance to go to a bowl game

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/team/colorado-buffaloes/projections
Click to expand...
Since Barnett left, this program has a grand total of 4 road conference victories, none by this coach or this QB. In that time frame we have been more likely to go winless on the road in conference than get a single win.

It's virtually impossible until this team proves otherwise.
 
While thinking about Pac-12 teams we face, it's hard to forget we lost to Hawaii. We don't need the maths to know our best shots are against OSU and WSU, and that's my prediction.
 
In the final minutes of the Giants-Cowboys game on opening week, the Giants had a 98% chance of winning. The math is interesting, but people get in the way. I wouldn't hang my hat on those predictive statistics.

So, if you had to put a paycheck down on the Buffs winning the WSU game... would you? 2/3 of the time, you are doubling your pay... decent odds? Given the recent history of this team, I don't think a rational person would even consider this bet.
 
'Tini said:
I haven't said they weren't, but there's a difference between that and saying virtually impossible.

And actually 6-7 is most likely according to maths.

67% chance to beat WSU
55% chance to beat OSU
49% chance to beat Oregon
38% chance to beat Arizona
34% chance to beat Arizona State
35% chance to go to a bowl game

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/team/colorado-buffaloes/projections
Click to expand...

Sure, but who cares about that difference? You understood the point the poster was making, everyone did.

And after last season, let's take win projections with a grain of salt. No one really knows what we have with this team.
 
Encouraged by ASU being awful this season and Arizona being bad yesterday. We have a chance in those. Sticking with 5-8 (2-7) for now though. We beat Wazzu or OSU and one of the AZ schools.
 
tini optimism aside, the P12 is definitely not that great this year. It sure would be nice to take advantage of that, I'm just not sure this team is capable of it.
 
Duff Man said:
Sure, but who cares about that difference? You understood the point the poster was making, everyone did.

And after last season, let's take win projections with a grain of salt. No one really knows what we have with this team.
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No thanks, I'll stick with my unbiased math.
 
How has CU been against the spread over the year, last year and last 5 years? Not sure where I would find this data.

I think the odds makers would be considered "unbiased" makers of math.
 
OUBuff said:
How has CU been against the spread over the year, last year and last 5 years? Not sure where I would find this data.

I think the odds makers would be considered "unbiased" makers of math.
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Odd makers don't create lines to predict the outcomes, they aim to get even money on both sides
 
'Tini said:
Odd makers don't create lines to predict the outcomes, they aim to get even money on both sides
Click to expand...
Thanks, I didn't know that the odds are no indication of the predicted outcome. Wow, you are right again, as always.... amazing.

So, when they figure the odds, I assumed they review the relative strengths of the teams to come up with a line that would entice betters to wager money on both sides of the line, but that would provide some indication to the outcome of the contest. I was obviously wrong in that assumption. Perhaps the odds makers actually search fan sites to figure out the number of fans on each side of a contest are likely to make dumb ass bets in favor of their team regardless of their team's relative strengths against an opponent.

Oh, and you didn't answer the question... would you really place a significant amount of money on CU winning that road game even if your fancy-shmancy unbiased statistics said so?

Hey, I'm a fan. I'm a believer, I think they will win that WSU game, but I'm not betting on it. Hell, I think they will beat Oregon (because I'm going and damn it, it's about time for something good to happen). But it is all wishful thinking, my rational self wouldn't wager a pay check on it.
 
We win 3

Oregon: last night was no fluke, this is a team that has some serious issues on defense and at the QB position. I have seen things all season that would concern me as a Ducks fan. Utah exposed them pretty well last night.
I think CU hangs with them for a half and then allows some big plays in the second half and Oregon pulls away. Ducks 48 Buffs 31

@ASU: The Buffs will likely face a Sun Devils team on a 2 game losing streak as the Devils travel to Pasadena to face a red hot Bruins team this week. We have never really played that well in Tempe and it continues.
Sun Devils 35 Buffs 17

Arizona: This is not a very good Mildcat team. It's homecoming for the Buffs and I Think this is a good chance for a win.
Buffs 34 Mildcats 28

@OSU: Buffs win their second straight conference game and look to get on a roll, bad news is Pasadena is next.
Buffs 41 Beavs 31

@UCLA: After last night, I don't want to think about this. Bruins roll.
Bruins 49 Buffs 14

Stanford: Earlier in the season I thought this was a real winnable game. Don't feel that way anymore.
Trees 31 Buffs 10

USC: The Trojans look to be no joke and even on Senior night, the Butfs don't stand a chance.
Buffs 38 Buffs 17

@WSU: Buffs win a wild one.
Buffs 52 Cougs 49

@Utah: somehow th Buffs have always played the Utes close, the Utes are for real this year and that close nail biter won't be the case this year.
Utes 42 Buffs 20
 
OUBuff said:
Thanks, I didn't know that the odds are no indication of the predicted outcome. Wow, you are right again, as always.... amazing.

So, when they figure the odds, I assumed they review the relative strengths of the teams to come up with a line that would entice betters to wager money on both sides of the line, but that would provide some indication to the outcome of the contest. I was obviously wrong in that assumption. Perhaps the odds makers actually search fan sites to figure out the number of fans on each side of a contest are likely to make dumb ass bets in favor of their team regardless of their team's relative strengths against an opponent.

Oh, and you didn't answer the question... would you really place a significant amount of money on CU winning that road game even if your fancy-shmancy unbiased statistics said so?

Hey, I'm a fan. I'm a believer, I think they will win that WSU game, but I'm not betting on it. Hell, I think they will beat Oregon (because I'm going and damn it, it's about time for something good to happen). But it is all wishful thinking, my rational self wouldn't wager a pay check on it.
Click to expand...

Using overall spreads and comparing them to historical win% is a good method to predict the winner.

And yes I would bet money if I bet on CU. I would take those odds and would bet that we finish 5-8. We spend so much time critiquing our issues but don't do the same with other teams. That's why I like using outside statistics, they help paint the whole picture instead of half of one.

Does PFF give a damn if Sefo is any good? Does the site I linked care if CU goes to a bowl game or if they win another game? Not at all.
 
'Tini said:
I haven't said they weren't, but there's a difference between that and saying virtually impossible.

And actually 6-7 is most likely according to maths.

67% chance to beat WSU
55% chance to beat OSU
49% chance to beat Oregon
38% chance to beat Arizona
34% chance to beat Arizona State
35% chance to go to a bowl game

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/team/colorado-buffaloes/projections
Click to expand...

This is funny. Would you mind keeping AB updated on these numbers weekly, primarily just a running total for the previous game and the pending one? If there's a genius calculation available it would be a big favor for us all.

Seriously, I would be interested to know how well the outcomes match the predictions. And if the Nicholls state math was less than 98% CU, it's not very credible. The only way the buffs lose that one is by forfeit.
 
Predicted 2 wins before the season and I'm sticking with that. Hopefully we win in Corvallis since I should be at that one.
 
Burrito Palazzo said:
**** a duck!
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dog-on-duck-1.jpg
 
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