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Wilner's post-spring power ratings

Buffnik

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/05/...he-pac-12-football-post-spring-power-ratings/
  1. Washington
  2. USC
  3. Stanford
  4. Colorado: Defending division champs: Handling the expectations that come with those three words could be as challenging for the Buffs as replacing the lost personnel.
  5. UCLA
  6. Utah
  7. Oregon
  8. Washington State
  9. Arizona State
  10. Oregon State
  11. Cal
  12. Arizona
I'm excited and nervous. After a 3-game opening slate that must result in a 3-0 performance, our Buffs have a schedule that sets up in way could cause us to rise or drop. We miss both Stanford and Oregon, which is good. We get both Washington and USC at home, which provides an opportunity to rise. But, we get UCLA, Utah, Washington State, Arizona State and Oregon State all on the road -- which will all be tough spots that could cause a drop. With our first 2 conference games hosting Washington and at UCLA, we might know a lot about where our Buffs fall into this mix by the end of September. October's "moving month" for our team with Arizona, at Oregon State, at Washington State and vs Cal. That's when CU needs to secure bowl eligibility and, hopefully, position itself for an opportunity to win the South. The November finish then looks nasty with at Arizona State, USC and at Utah. Can't wait!
 
Buffnik said:
http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/05/...he-pac-12-football-post-spring-power-ratings/
  1. Washington
  2. USC
  3. Stanford
  4. Colorado: Defending division champs: Handling the expectations that come with those three words could be as challenging for the Buffs as replacing the lost personnel.
  5. UCLA
  6. Utah
  7. Oregon
  8. Washington State
  9. Arizona State
  10. Oregon State
  11. Cal
  12. Arizona
I'm excited and nervous. After a 3-game opening slate that must result in a 3-0 performance, our Buffs have a schedule that sets up in way could cause us to rise or drop. We miss both Stanford and Oregon, which is good. We get both Washington and USC at home, which provides an opportunity to rise. But, we get UCLA, Utah, Washington State, Arizona State and Oregon State all on the road -- which will all be tough spots that could cause a drop. With our first 2 conference games hosting Washington and at UCLA, we might know a lot about where our Buffs fall into this mix by the end of September. October's "moving month" for our team with Arizona, at Oregon State, at Washington State and vs Cal. That's when CU needs to secure bowl eligibility and, hopefully, position itself for an opportunity to win the South. The November finish then looks nasty with at Arizona State, USC and at Utah. Can't wait!
Click to expand...

If CU is sitting at 4-1 or 5-0 after those first 5 games... Look out.
 
I still don't see ASU as a major threat. Maybe they'll be better. I don't know. They were terrible last year. I'm thinking about heading down there for that game. We should win easily.

The game that worries me most is at UCLA. They're such a thugged out team anymore.
 
I see us taking 3/5 of the UCLA, Utah, Washington State, Arizona State and Oregon State road games and 1/2 of the USC/UW home games.
 
BuffNut99 said:
I see us taking 3/5 of the UCLA, Utah, Washington State, Arizona State and Oregon State road games and 1/2 of the USC/UW home games.
Click to expand...
From your lips to Gods ears. I'd take a 9-3 regular season no questions asked.
 
Darth Snow said:
woah, that is positive. I was thinking it would be down to 6.
Click to expand...

I think it is easy to find five wins (CSU, Texas State, UNC, Arizona, and Cal). The question in my mind is whether we can have a winning conference record with the unbalanced schedule skewed toward the road games.
 
Figure a 3-0 start (anything less would be catastrophic) and highly probable wins against UA, ASU and Cal. That's six right there. Then a group of games that could go either way with UCLA, Utah, WSU and OSU (all on the road). Then the big guns of USC and UW - both at home. Do we go 2-4 in those games? I personally think we should, but crazy stuff happens in College Football. The schedule is kind for bowl eligibility, but decidedly unkind for much beyond that.

OTOH, who would have predicted road wins at Oregon and Stanford this time last year?
 
Duff Man said:
I think it is easy to find five wins (CSU, Texas State, UNC, Arizona, and Cal). The question in my mind is whether we can have a winning conference record with the unbalanced schedule skewed toward the road games.
Click to expand...
Yea, I just can't think of the CSU game as a gimme until we see how our D looks. That feels like a 50/50 game with offensive mistakes being the decisive factor. If you are talking about "likely wins" as more than a 60% likelihood of victory, I really don't see 5, but more like 3: Texas State, UNC, one of CSU/zona/cal (need to figure that out, might be 2 of 3.
 
hard to say what we've got here. we're replacing basically the entire starting defense along with the coordinator, who despite his traitorous behavior, is a great coordinator. on offense, the difference was sefo. he was banged up and not always effective but he rallied that team and didn't usually make mistakes.

i like the dbs we have coming back. i like our wideouts and phil and i think montez can bring some more pop to the offense. i am worried on both sides of the line and we still don't have any proven lbs (had we had stud lbs last year, we would have beat michigan, even with sefo going down, and some other teams who powered up, like usc).

i'll go with 6+ wins in a slight rebuilding year, but i think we get a bowl win this season. we're due.
 
Pretty tough getting only 4 Pac-12 home games and two of those being 90% likely losses.
 
Darth Snow said:
Yea, I just can't think of the CSU game as a gimme until we see how our D looks. That feels like a 50/50 game with offensive mistakes being the decisive factor. If you are talking about "likely wins" as more than a 60% likelihood of victory, I really don't see 5, but more like 3: Texas State, UNC, one of CSU/zona/cal (need to figure that out, might be 2 of 3.
Click to expand...

Agree on the CSU game. Should be a win, but not a gimme.
But Cal and Zona at home are wins.
 
Darth Snow said:
Yea, I just can't think of the CSU game as a gimme until we see how our D looks. That feels like a 50/50 game with offensive mistakes being the decisive factor. If you are talking about "likely wins" as more than a 60% likelihood of victory, I really don't see 5, but more like 3: Texas State, UNC, one of CSU/zona/cal (need to figure that out, might be 2 of 3.
Click to expand...

Fair, although I think we are going to favorites by at least a TD in every one of those games.
 
I would say that this team is definitely built toward 2018 as the year to be a contender. However, it's not unusual at all for a college football team to arrive a year early. Reasonable expectations would be around 7 wins this season. Hard to think it would be much below that. But if this team gets out of September at 4-1 or 5-0 and healthy, with the way momentum builds in college football all bets would be off as we'd be looking at a very manageable October and another 9 or 10 win season.
 
buffaholic said:
I don't see either of those games as 90% losses. I think we are slight dogs to both.
Click to expand...
Might be a slight dog to UW because we are undefeated but that won't last long. Those teams are too talented and I really don't want to see Darnold carve up our new secondary.
 
Will be a very interesting season considering our strongest force, our defense, was entirely gutted coaching staff and all
 
Darth Snow said:
Yea, I just can't think of the CSU game as a gimme until we see how our D looks. That feels like a 50/50 game with offensive mistakes being the decisive factor. If you are talking about "likely wins" as more than a 60% likelihood of victory, I really don't see 5, but more like 3: Texas State, UNC, one of CSU/zona/cal (need to figure that out, might be 2 of 3.
Click to expand...

I think CSU's defense is going to be absolute garbage, and our offense is going to be fire. I have no idea how our defense reacts, but I expect the offense to cover any deficiencies.
 
CSU is going to be good on offense. They have pretty good RBs, their QB has proven himself against MWC competition, and Michael Gallup would fit right in to CU's WR corps. They lose a lot of OL experience, but that hasn't stopped them before. CU's offense will boatrace, though. I can't even imagine the damage a senior Phillip Lindsay will do to the Rams
 
I think if Gallup was a smaller, quicker receiver I would be worried but he seems like the kind of guy Oliver dominates.
 
Looking at our roster, I am not too concerned with our corners. Safety, is another issue. We have Laguda and...
 
Shldr2Shldr said:
Looking at our roster, I am not too concerned with our corners. Safety, is another issue. We have Laguda and...
Click to expand...
I'm very confident in Fisher with Moeller and White in that mix (playing a lot of "Buff" linebacker in a quasi nickel base).
 
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