Wilner's take on whether Pac-10 expansion was worth it or not

[BuffaloSoldier76]

I was talking about how the Phoenix market included Prescott which is 100 miles away from Phoenix. Colorado Springs is 85 miles away from Boulder. So i was saying if Phoenix gets to include cities like Prescott then Denver should be able to include Colorado Springs.

Silly I know, but I don't think Colorado Springs is really far enough away to justify its own media market.

Colorado Springs has their own set of television stations. That is why they get to have their own media market.

 

[dply]

Colorado Springs has their own set of television stations. That is why they get to have their own media market.

I know but now that denver basically has spread all the way down there it seems a bit silly. i do like watching the news when i stay down there. It feels like I'm in another state but the news is all the same. :lol:

 

[BuffaloSoldier76]

I know but now that denver basically has spread all the way down there it seems a bit silly. i do like watching the news when i stay down there. It feels like I'm in another state but the news is all the same. :lol:

So true! My mom lives in Pueblo, so we end up watching their news every time we visit. She was so mad when Comcast killed her access to Denver stations for the news.
What was weird was growing up in the farther southern reaches of the state, and we used to get both Denver and Albuquerque networks on cable, but we didn't get the Springs/Pueblo stations at all. DMA footprints are a strange thing to map out...almost like congressional district maps.

 

[Maxer]

Interesting views on CU from there. People actually looking at the history of our program rather than the past 5 years. And it seems like while skeptical of Utah, people are leaning towards it being a good move. I believe that once Utah gets rolling with the recruiting of Pac-12 caliber athletes the Utes will be a force as well. Its going to be fun seeing power in the south being fought for each season. The north seems locked up right now, and with Phil Knight U having what it does, it is almost impossible to recruit against them in the North.

Cal (being the program I know the most about) has beaten Oregon on quite a number of recruits recently. No one can compete with their facilities, which are palatial (I linked to them in another thread) but their recruiting, for a team that just went to the NCG, has been good but not great. Despite all the money and facilities and 100+ uniform combinations, they are still located in Eugene, OR and don't have a "natural" recruiting hotbed to draw from.

So to say that "no one can recruit against them in the North" isn't true. To speak to your point of them having the North "all locked up" -- as much as it pains me to say it, I think Stanford could very well be better than they are this year. I guess time will tell.

 

[Maxer]

Wilner still isn't a big fan of CU but at least he is more accurate on his reporting. I'm still waiting for Chip to address the 35 million dollars that CU and NU allegedly would owe the Big XII lol!

We're all convinced he's a Stanford homer. That said, he's generally pretty fair (and critical in general).

 

[Buffarino]

Yes, but the 1.57 million number is based on Nielsen's determination of the number of "TV homes" within the coverage area. It is guesstimation on their part with some logic behind it, but it is also the number that is used by everybody for determining things like advertising rates.

Gotcha.

 

[GoBeers]

I was talking about how the Phoenix market included Prescott which is 100 miles away from Phoenix. Colorado Springs is 85 miles away from Boulder. So i was saying if Phoenix gets to include cities like Prescott then Denver should be able to include Colorado Springs.

Silly I know, but I don't think Colorado Springs is really far enough away to justify its own media market.

I was talking about how the Phoenix market included Prescott which is 100 miles away from Phoenix. Colorado Springs is 85 miles away from Boulder. So i was saying if Phoenix gets to include cities like Prescott then Denver should be able to include Colorado Springs.

Silly I know, but I don't think Colorado Springs is really far enough away to justify its own media market.

Media markets are essentially defined by the FCC who gives licenses to the broadcast stations. the springs has its own TV stations,hence separate media market. Just dividing up media markets and assigning them to schools is a very simplified way of doing this worth by TV sets equation and it's easy to see why it's not that simple when talking about whether to include various cities in a school's footprint. Take Arizona for instance - ASU is in Phoenix and UofA in Tucson... but there are plenty of UofA grads in Phoenix. Do you have to divide the state markets 50/50 between the two schools? Do you consider that UofA is half the size of ASU in terms of student body? Or that UofA is a better school by far with better professional programs and more national recognition? Are there some residents that like both schools or choose a school to root for based on factors other than which media market is closest? Same with Colorado - lots of Rams and Air Force fans/grads, so it's not like Denver or CS are entirely captured by CU... but being the only BCS school in the state, is it better to say 75% to 80% of the Denver market will be CU's?

One thing to consider with Cal/Stanford/the Bay Area market is that Stanford has very limited local support. Also, Sacramento (+1.4 million households) should most definitely be included in Cal territory. Cal's local media partner, Comcast Sports California was originally a joint venture between the Kings and Comcast and now carries both the A's and Sharks in the Bay Area and Sacramento.

If I were to rank media presence of the new pac 12 schools, CU would be well ahead of the Oregon and Arizona schools due to those states being split. UW absolutely dominates Seattle and WSU. I would think a ranking like this makes sense:

1. USC
2. UCLA
3. UW
4. Cal (could be #3 depending on how market is split with Stanford)
5. CU (there might be some arguments that they could be close to tying for #4 due to some Bay Area sports apathy)
6. ASU
7. UofA
8. Stanford
9. Oregon (even if you split Oregon/Portland unevenly in favor of Oregon, the state is still much smaller than Colorado
10. Utah (BYU has tons of fans in Utah/SLC)
11. OSU
12. WSU

What is a plus about Utah and Colorado is that they are delivering an entire market to the Pac12. That might not make a big difference when a national broadcast is selected by ABC/ESPN/Fox, but it definitely matters when the Pac 12 network is getting monthly subscription payment from cable. I'm sure the goal is the Big Ten Network's $.88 per month per basic cable subscriber that they are paid within the Big Ten cable footprint... even 40-50 cents would be great for the pac12, IMO. The Pac 12 is going to get that rate from Utah and Colorado by having only one team... there was no need for another paired team like BYU or CSU to get that money, where as in markets like portland and phoenix, that money is really shared.

 

[dply]

Media markets are essentially defined by the FCC who gives licenses to the broadcast stations. the springs has its own TV stations,hence separate media market. Just dividing up media markets and assigning them to schools is a very simplified way of doing this worth by TV sets equation and it's easy to see why it's not that simple when talking about whether to include various cities in a school's footprint. Take Arizona for instance - ASU is in Phoenix and UofA in Tucson... but there are plenty of UofA grads in Phoenix. Do you have to divide the state markets 50/50 between the two schools? Do you consider that UofA is half the size of ASU in terms of student body? Or that UofA is a better school by far with better professional programs and more national recognition? Are there some residents that like both schools or choose a school to root for based on factors other than which media market is closest? Same with Colorado - lots of Rams and Air Force fans/grads, so it's not like Denver or CS are entirely captured by CU... but being the only BCS school in the state, is it better to say 75% to 80% of the Denver market will be CU's?

One thing to consider with Cal/Stanford/the Bay Area market is that Stanford has very limited local support. Also, Sacramento (+1.4 million households) should most definitely be included in Cal territory. Cal's local media partner, Comcast Sports California was originally a joint venture between the Kings and Comcast and now carries both the A's and Sharks in the Bay Area and Sacramento.

If I were to rank media presence of the new pac 12 schools, CU would be well ahead of the Oregon and Arizona schools due to those states being split. UW absolutely dominates Seattle and WSU. I would think a ranking like this makes sense:

1. USC
2. UCLA
3. UW
4. Cal (could be #3 depending on how market is split with Stanford)
5. CU (there might be some arguments that they could be close to tying for #4 due to some Bay Area sports apathy)
6. ASU
7. UofA
8. Stanford
9. Oregon (even if you split Oregon/Portland unevenly in favor of Oregon, the state is still much smaller than Colorado
10. Utah (BYU has tons of fans in Utah/SLC)
11. OSU
12. WSU

What is a plus about Utah and Colorado is that they are delivering an entire market to the Pac12. That might not make a big difference when a national broadcast is selected by ABC/ESPN/Fox, but it definitely matters when the Pac 12 network is getting monthly subscription payment from cable. I'm sure the goal is the Big Ten Network's $.88 per month per basic cable subscriber that they are paid within the Big Ten cable footprint... even 40-50 cents would be great for the pac12, IMO. The Pac 12 is going to get that rate from Utah and Colorado by having only one team... there was no need for another paired team like BYU or CSU to get that money, where as in markets like portland and phoenix, that money is really shared.

Rep for indulging my non-sense. I would never include CSU fans cause they only watch one game per year and then switch over to the Broncos. Denver really is a unique market. My dad used to live in Cody, wyoming and they still received some denver channels. Bottom line is the buffs need to start winning again and the tv sets will follow. If we continue what we've done for the past 5 years then it won't matter how big the market is, only the faithful will watch.

 

[sackman]

The strange thing is that I believe Ft. Collins/Loveland/Greeley is considered part of the Denver TV market. :lol:

 

[Maxer]

Media markets are essentially defined by the FCC who gives licenses to the broadcast stations. the springs has its own TV stations,hence separate media market. Just dividing up media markets and assigning them to schools is a very simplified way of doing this worth by TV sets equation and it's easy to see why it's not that simple when talking about whether to include various cities in a school's footprint. Take Arizona for instance - ASU is in Phoenix and UofA in Tucson... but there are plenty of UofA grads in Phoenix. Do you have to divide the state markets 50/50 between the two schools? Do you consider that UofA is half the size of ASU in terms of student body? Or that UofA is a better school by far with better professional programs and more national recognition? Are there some residents that like both schools or choose a school to root for based on factors other than which media market is closest? Same with Colorado - lots of Rams and Air Force fans/grads, so it's not like Denver or CS are entirely captured by CU... but being the only BCS school in the state, is it better to say 75% to 80% of the Denver market will be CU's?

One thing to consider with Cal/Stanford/the Bay Area market is that Stanford has very limited local support. Also, Sacramento (+1.4 million households) should most definitely be included in Cal territory. Cal's local media partner, Comcast Sports California was originally a joint venture between the Kings and Comcast and now carries both the A's and Sharks in the Bay Area and Sacramento.

If I were to rank media presence of the new pac 12 schools, CU would be well ahead of the Oregon and Arizona schools due to those states being split. UW absolutely dominates Seattle and WSU. I would think a ranking like this makes sense:

1. USC
2. UCLA
3. UW
4. Cal (could be #3 depending on how market is split with Stanford)
5. CU (there might be some arguments that they could be close to tying for #4 due to some Bay Area sports apathy)
6. ASU
7. UofA
8. Stanford
9. Oregon (even if you split Oregon/Portland unevenly in favor of Oregon, the state is still much smaller than Colorado
10. Utah (BYU has tons of fans in Utah/SLC)
11. OSU
12. WSU

What is a plus about Utah and Colorado is that they are delivering an entire market to the Pac12. That might not make a big difference when a national broadcast is selected by ABC/ESPN/Fox, but it definitely matters when the Pac 12 network is getting monthly subscription payment from cable. I'm sure the goal is the Big Ten Network's $.88 per month per basic cable subscriber that they are paid within the Big Ten cable footprint... even 40-50 cents would be great for the pac12, IMO. The Pac 12 is going to get that rate from Utah and Colorado by having only one team... there was no need for another paired team like BYU or CSU to get that money, where as in markets like portland and phoenix, that money is really shared.

I don't understand how you can put Stanford at 8 and UW ahead of Cal. Or CU at #4. Here are some population numbers:

Greater Los Angeles Area: 17,786,419
Greater SF Bay Area: 9,400,000
Greater Phoenix Area: 4,192,887
Greater Seattle Area: 3,344,813
Greater Denver Area: 2,500,000
Greater Portland Area (partly in WA State): 2,226,009
Greater Sacramento Area (part of the Cal/Stanford footprint): 2,461,780
Greater Salt Lake City: 1,130,293

You can talk about nebulous ideas of "apathy" all you want, but the more people, the more media value. Period.

 

[NashBuff]

Plus doesn't the Denver channels go into the western parts of Kansas and Nebraska too?

 

[BuffaloSoldier76]

Plus doesn't the Denver channels go into the western parts of Kansas and Nebraska too?

Here is a decent DMA coverage map so you can sort of interpret what geographical areas these DMAs cover. The Denver DMA stretches into the vast uninhabited wilds of Wyoming and Western Nebraska, but not into Kansas. This map is just divided by county, and it isn't necessarily as simple as that, but it is probably the best/simplest representation to get the gist of it.

 

[Buffnik]

Plus doesn't the Denver channels go into the western parts of Kansas and Nebraska too?

:nod:

We've got to pick up another several hundred people there. :wink2:

Really, if we want to reach the people in Nebraska and western Kansas all we need to do is open up a Pac-12 shop in Estes Park. :smile2:

 

[NashBuff]

:nod:
Really, if we want to reach the people in Nebraska and western Kansas all we need to do is open up a Pac-12 shop in Estes Park. :smile2:

Genius! Anyone have Larry Scott's e-mail address?

 

[GoBruinz]

There are a LOT more markets than just the "home cities" of the Pac 12 schools. You could call San Diego USC/UCLA territory. Sacramento is probably Cal/Stanford territory. Las Vegas is filled with people from Southern California. Colorado Springs is probably full of CU fans (Air Force aside). Honolulu, Fresno, Anchorage, and Boise were all in the Pac 10 footprint previously. You could legitimately say that due to CU and UU, not only Salt Lake City and Denver have been added, but really all of Utah, all of Colorado including CO Springs, Pueblo, etc., Albuquerque, and potentially even El Paso.

When you look at the TV map for Saturday afternoon on ABC, the amount of additional Pac 12 territory added to the viewing area is the real value the schools added from a TV perspective.

 

[NashBuff]

There are a LOT more markets than just the "home cities" of the Pac 12 schools. You could call San Diego USC/UCLA territory. Sacramento is probably Cal/Stanford territory. Las Vegas is filled with people from Southern California. Colorado Springs is probably full of CU fans (Air Force aside). Honolulu, Fresno, Anchorage, and Boise were all in the Pac 10 footprint previously. You could legitimately say that due to CU and UU, not only Salt Lake City and Denver have been added, but really all of Utah, all of Colorado including CO Springs, Pueblo, etc., Albuquerque, and potentially even El Paso.

When you look at the TV map for Saturday afternoon on ABC, the amount of additional Pac 12 territory added to the viewing area is the real value the schools added from a TV perspective.

Try telling that to the Big 12-2 fans that believe losing CU is no big deal especially when the Pac-12 will have at least 1/3 to 40% of the entire United States as its geographical footprint. I have watched the TV maps for years and sometimes the Big 12 TV footprint would go into the non-Pac-10 states except for Idaho.

I didn't expect to see how large the SLC TV coverage is but along with the Denver TV coverage, the Pac-12 did gain a nice share of TV coverage.

Now if the Pac-16 does happen, that's half of the US the Pac-16 will own.

 

[BuffaloSoldier76]

There are a LOT more markets than just the "home cities" of the Pac 12 schools. You could call San Diego USC/UCLA territory. Sacramento is probably Cal/Stanford territory. Las Vegas is filled with people from Southern California. Colorado Springs is probably full of CU fans (Air Force aside). Honolulu, Fresno, Anchorage, and Boise were all in the Pac 10 footprint previously. You could legitimately say that due to CU and UU, not only Salt Lake City and Denver have been added, but really all of Utah, all of Colorado including CO Springs, Pueblo, etc., Albuquerque, and potentially even El Paso.

When you look at the TV map for Saturday afternoon on ABC, the amount of additional Pac 12 territory added to the viewing area is the real value the schools added from a TV perspective.

Absolutely, and most of those will be included in the footprint, but everybody wants to focus on the "crown jewel" markets where the majority of eyes are reached. You could count Oregon's DMA as just Eugene, but the prize is the Portland market that it brings with it. There are certainly subsidiary markets that are added in...not to denigrate a top 20 market like Sacramento or a 1MM plus market like San Diego at all, but they aren't the primary markets that people have their eyes on here since the 4 California schools bring with them all of the DMAs in California, which were already accounted for in the Pac-10. Everyone looks to the Los Angeles and San Francisco markets, and as they go, so goes all of California.

 

[GoBeers]

I don't understand how you can put Stanford at 8 and UW ahead of Cal. Or CU at #4. Here are some population numbers:

Greater Los Angeles Area: 17,786,419
Greater SF Bay Area: 9,400,000
Greater Phoenix Area: 4,192,887
Greater Seattle Area: 3,344,813
Greater Denver Area: 2,500,000
Greater Portland Area (partly in WA State): 2,226,009
Greater Sacramento Area (part of the Cal/Stanford footprint): 2,461,780
Greater Salt Lake City: 1,130,293

You can talk about nebulous ideas of "apathy" all you want, but the more people, the more media value. Period.

I've never seen Greater Bay area listed at 9.4 million. It really all depends on where you draw the lines, but if you wanted to include Sac, that's believable, though the SF-Oak-SJC metro areas totals 4.7 million.

It was a gut feeling to put UW above Cal - it's really close, and I should make a distinction - I was doing more than just adding up market size. market size will absolutely says how many cable subscribers are going to pony up per household, but it doesn't say how many will be watching. Ratings are also important for advertising and UW is located in an area that will tune at a higher % than the Bay Area. Beyond that, i admit it's rather nebulous to cite fan apathy, but it's most definitely true in the Bay Area, and on top of that there are 2 NFL teams. LA schools get a huge boost due to no NFL teams as well. Another factor - under the unequal revenue sharing regime, UW trailed Cal in revenue by a small amount in both 2007-08 and 2008-09. They were also an awful 0-12 in 2008. They were bad in 2007 as well. that does somewhat indicate the pull of UW and how many fans watch.

One thing that would most definitely push Cal's 'worth' over UW is how the millions of unaccounted for TV households beyond Sacramento and SD in California are divided up. There are probably 5 million+ TV households that are unaccounted for and if they are paying Pac 12 Network subscriptions (who freaking cares if they are even watching), it's because of not just one school, but the fact all 4 CA schools have a following at some level in any CA location.

With that said, I shouldn't not have said CU could be a #4 due to Bay Area fan apathy - I am still rather down on the Bay Area as a college sports market. the local coverage of CU blows away the local coverage of Cal, but there are overwhelming population advantages. It really isn't all that close and on top of that the Broncos are king in Colorado. But still denver is a nice market that delivers a lot of viewers without being divided. CA's a big freaking state. That's why it was definitely unfair for wilner to bag on CU for diluting the p12 market. They dilute it no more than any other non CA school, except maybe UW.

 

[Maxer]

I've never seen Greater Bay area listed at 9.4 million. It really all depends on where you draw the lines, but if you wanted to include Sac, that's believable, though the SF-Oak-SJC metro areas totals 4.7 million.

I don't know where you're getting those numbers, but they aren't correct. The population total (taken from the U.S. Census website) for Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Sonoma, Solano, and Marin Counties totals 7,238,049 people. That does not include Napa or Sacramento counties.

Here's a link: http://factfinder.census.gov/servle...00US06&-format=ST-2&-tree_id=809&-context=gct

It was a gut feeling to put UW above Cal - it's really close, and I should make a distinction - I was doing more than just adding up market size. market size will absolutely says how many cable subscribers are going to pony up per household, but it doesn't say how many will be watching. Ratings are also important for advertising and UW is located in an area that will tune at a higher % than the Bay Area.

I'll take your word for it that a higher percentage of people in the Seattle area will watch. Even given that, the ratings matter, somewhat, to the networks showing the game, which I suppose could affect the next media deal in 12 years or however long it is. Of much more importance to the Pac-12 is the overall number, which is already determined, and the number of households that will get the Pac-12 network in their basic cable/satellite packages. Advertising revenue will be the (much smaller) cherry on top, but what will drive revenues (and why ESPN/Fox was willing to pay so much) is the per-subscriber price they can charge the cable/satellite companies. Live sports enables them to increase that price.

Beyond that, i admit it's rather nebulous to cite fan apathy, but it's most definitely true in the Bay Area, and on top of that there are 2 NFL teams. LA schools get a huge boost due to no NFL teams as well. Another factor - under the unequal revenue sharing regime, UW trailed Cal in revenue by a small amount in both 2007-08 and 2008-09. They were also an awful 0-12 in 2008. They were bad in 2007 as well. that does somewhat indicate the pull of UW and how many fans watch.

Sure. Doesn't really matter, as I outlined above.

One thing that would most definitely push Cal's 'worth' over UW is how the millions of unaccounted for TV households beyond Sacramento and SD in California are divided up. There are probably 5 million+ TV households that are unaccounted for and if they are paying Pac 12 Network subscriptions (who freaking cares if they are even watching), it's because of not just one school, but the fact all 4 CA schools have a following at some level in any CA location.

Yes. But the population is so much greater in California, all 4 of the California schools are "worth" more than any others in the PAC. That said, you can't have a 4 team conference, so the revenue split makes sense as well.

With that said, I shouldn't not have said CU could be a #4 due to Bay Area fan apathy - I am still rather down on the Bay Area as a college sports market. the local coverage of CU blows away the local coverage of Cal, but there are overwhelming population advantages. It really isn't all that close and on top of that the Broncos are king in Colorado. But still denver is a nice market that delivers a lot of viewers without being divided. CA's a big freaking state. That's why it was definitely unfair for wilner to bag on CU for diluting the p12 market. They dilute it no more than any other non CA school, except maybe UW.

Agreed.