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Looking forward to the CSU game next year
- Thread starter J-R-K
- Start date
And the argument changes again. Troll your facts are quite wrong. Also, good thing CSU doesn't have what it takes to get into a better conference.
Idk about the Big 12 as they can move east.
The Pac-12 really doesn't have many options as they like to stay regional and have academic standards. Unless they want to start plucking Texas or Oklahoma (who it looks like are staying in the Big 12 anyway), CSU seems like one of the only viable choices in the West that meets their academic standards.
The Pac-12 may never expand, but I'd rather try for it than sit here and do nothing
So you admit that CSU is putting all it's eggs in the Pac-12 basket, without any assurances from the Pac 12 that it will ever expand, and even if it does, that CSU is anywhere on it's short list? That's effing brilliant.
Conferences look at CSUs >22k average home attendance and non-existant TV ratings, end of story. Even in the few years that CSU wa good on the field the average home attendance barely went over 28k. Even if you took the most optimistic fantasy view of the whole thing by taking the highest ever attendance of 28k plus another 25% boost for a new stadium that puts you at 35,000 per game or roughly half of what some other schools in contention draw even when they aren't at their peak. By the way the ICON figures were based on CSU becoming a top 20 program again. What has happened to make you think that CSU is anywhere outside the bottom 20 or is this one of those magical transformations that will also happen because "they deserve it?" When was the last time CSU was on national TV on a major network? Why is it that long, because nobody wants to watch them.
Big XII or the PAC aren't going to happen, All the dreaming in the world won't get you there. A more than half empty new stadium that wouldn't get you there full definately won't get you there.
I don't know what JG's plans are.
And no. We're putting all our eggs into getting better. Nothin wrong with that
You're trying to get better in the hopes that by doing so, you'll be invited to the Pac 12. This is a very risky gamble.
There is when you don't have the revenue to pay for the eggs.
We are still waiting to hear the names of these magical mystery donors who are going to dump millions of dollars down the s***hole that is CSU football to pay for all these fantasies that Jack Graham keeps announcing.
Such as?
You guys insult ICON's projections, when every single one of your projections is based on CSU not improving AT ALL
Historical trend is historical.
Can you read. I gave you credit for the most optimistic projections, a top 20 team (which isn't going to happen) and a 25% increase in attendance over the highest ever attendance when CSU had a top 20 team. That still puts you at a number well below what would interest the PAC or the Big XII.
I would say that those two factors are way better than not giving credit for improving at all, they are allowing for fantasy level improvements of the most optimistic nature.
You guys aren't going to be a top 20 team unless you crush all the teams in the MWC, and then schedule almost all our OOC against Top 15 teams.
In your opinion. So what would be a viable attendance IYO to get into the Pac then?
You are taught in every statistics and risk management class that using experience is the most effect method of projections.
Here is a simple question. Do you think that adding CSU to the Pac12 will increase or decrease the revenue distribution per conference teams?
Considering that CSU does not have a TV market in which it dominates probably 55k+
Utah averages about 43k but and this is the big difference, they are the top draw in a media market that is close to being in the top 20 in the nation and doesn't have a pro franchise in it. CSU isn't even in the top 10-15 sports draws in it's own TV market.
This is the part you don't get. CSU does not add revenue value to a major conference. Even if they got a new stadium and filled it to 42,500 per game they don't make money for the rest of a major conference.
I think you'd have to be at 35k as a minimum.
I also think the Pac would have to be in a position where it was forced to go to 16 and had almost no options available to it that delivered new media markets (cable providers). The philosophy has been to expand with new markets and get away from the old Pac-10 model that fit well in 1980 and made a lot of sense with paired rivalries and travel partners as the focus... but in today's dynamics created a situation where they had 10 teams and only 5 markets. Larry Scott saw this as the single biggest problem with the conference makeup in terms of being able to drive larger media contracts and make expansion economically viable.
From an economics standpoint, expansion considerations go like this:
1- New television market
2- Largest possible market (Texas is #1 priority with national following #2, i.e., Nebraska is valuable despite Lincoln being a tiny market)
3- Central Time Zone is valuable because it gives an earlier start time for games which gives additional national broadcasts
4- Academic & Cultural fit with the Pac-12
Based on that, the ideal expansion plan for the Pac-12 would be if there was a way to break up the Big 12 and bring in Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and either Texas Tech or Oklahoma State for the next round of expansion.
If we assume that the Pac-12 cannot poach programs from the existing Big 12, the list gets fairly short.
Houston is likely the #1 target. For that to work, we'd probably need another program in Texas. Texas Tech would be the hope (if we could get them away from the Big 12). If not, we'd have to swallow some reservations about religious affiliation/academic freedom and look at SMU.
New Mexico is very possible. Albuquerque is growing, there are a ton of Californians living/working there, and it expands the footprint.
Boise State and San Diego State are possible, but there are academic and market concerns with the former with repeat market concerns on the latter (and a major reluctance to have another program in California competing for recruits).
BYU would be very possible if not for politics and academic freedom issues. They have everything else you'd want due to their international following.
UNLV would cement the Las Vegas market, but there are a lot of other issues.
CSU comes in somewhere after all that. Academics would work. Cultural would work. But there's really not much else that CSU does for the conference. Financially, it's probably not viable because there's very little gain beyond additional games on the conference schedule that can be sold to media outlets.
It was 3-4 pages ago in this thread that we were talking about the actual recruit in question, but I'd like to think that I didn't waste 10 minutes looking through twitter for nothing. Here are the letters Marcus Holt posted:
http://yfrog.com/ob82yhnj (Memphis)
http://yfrog.com/gyabtdmgj (Mizzou)
Do you see how incredibly easy it is to cite sources on the internet?
Interestingly, I also saw a re-tweet of a Xavier Johnson tweet. Does anyone know if these guys actually know each other?
http://yfrog.com/ob82yhnj (Memphis)
http://yfrog.com/gyabtdmgj (Mizzou)
Do you see how incredibly easy it is to cite sources on the internet?
Interestingly, I also saw a re-tweet of a Xavier Johnson tweet. Does anyone know if these guys actually know each other?
NashBuff
CSU Knob-Slobberer
I wouldn't sleep on CSU joining the Pac-12 over the long term. I could see a Pac-16 East division that includes the Mountain schools plus BYU, CSU, UNM, and UNLV. That would be a very basketball centric division and I am glad for the basketball practice facility. I wouldn't be shocked if Mike Bohn actually knows who the last four Pac-16 teams will be after the Tex-OK schools decided to not join. I can't see BYU remaining in the WCC for decades before the fans demand better competition and the Big 12 probably won't take them at this point.
UNLV appears to have gotten the go-ahead to construct a 60k seat domed stadium and their basketball facilities are at least equal to ours. BYU has a large stadium and basketball arena. New Mexico has The Pit and their football stadium is supposed to get some additions. CSU is planning on building a new football stadium on campus and their basketball arena expansion is on the drawing boards.
The Pac-8 schools still want their own division although they are thrilled to have Utah and CU in the Pac-12.
I know Houston is a popular choice but who will their dance partner be? Does the UH brand resonate more than CSU, BYU, UNM, or UNLV? The same question was asked of CU for years when they were flirting in the Pac-10 beginning in the 1990's. First it was to be BYU then Utah got hot and BYU was replaced by Utah as a result.
All of this might not happen for 15-20 years. Suppose CSU sees that kind of oppournity to join the Pac-12...I don't blame them for having this type of urgency in Ft. Collins.
UNLV appears to have gotten the go-ahead to construct a 60k seat domed stadium and their basketball facilities are at least equal to ours. BYU has a large stadium and basketball arena. New Mexico has The Pit and their football stadium is supposed to get some additions. CSU is planning on building a new football stadium on campus and their basketball arena expansion is on the drawing boards.
The Pac-8 schools still want their own division although they are thrilled to have Utah and CU in the Pac-12.
I know Houston is a popular choice but who will their dance partner be? Does the UH brand resonate more than CSU, BYU, UNM, or UNLV? The same question was asked of CU for years when they were flirting in the Pac-10 beginning in the 1990's. First it was to be BYU then Utah got hot and BYU was replaced by Utah as a result.
All of this might not happen for 15-20 years. Suppose CSU sees that kind of oppournity to join the Pac-12...I don't blame them for having this type of urgency in Ft. Collins.
I will bet anyone $100 that BYU will never be invited to the 12PAC
Which of the teams you mention have the ability to bring an additional $30+ million in revenues to the league each year for distribution. The idea that the conference is going to expand at the cost of reducing the payouts for the existing teams by millions of dollars per year to pay new members is not logical.
:lol:
I'll take you up on that bet. The only way it gets settled is if BYU gets the invite.
Only in the scenario where the big 4 conferences aren't making a push to kill the NCAA. If they're trying to kill the NCAA, the Pac will need an extra four teams. Without the NCAA, the Pac (& other three mega conferences) would stand to make a lot more money, and thus would be more willing to take in a straggler like UNLV, CSU, UNM, SDSU, BSU, etc.
If they want to kill the NCAA they don't have to have 64 teams to do it. They can do it just as well with 50-60 and uneven conferences. If they want to have 64 or some other number they can also do it with 5 conferences instead of 4. This would allow the conferences to keep more of a regional identity, have more conference champs, and would allow for the fifth conference, likely the remnants of the ACC and Big East plus ? to pay out less per team than the other conferences while still being part of the new organization.
No matter how they do it, even if it means going to an alignment of 4/16 CSU is so far down the list of who they would consider it makes little sense to worry about the form it would take.
Deleted member 807
Guest
Is CSU a better school academically than Okie State or Kansas State or TCU or Baylor or Mississippi State or Washington State or Nebraska? Arguements could be made. But those schools are in AQ conferences and CSU is not. Why are these potentially inferior schools in a better athlethic conference than CSU? Endowment? Academics? Quality of life? Population? Because they are more deserving?
Why isn't CSU taken seriously as other schools? Why oh why oh why?
Answer: CSU doesn't take its football seriously enough and this included the alumni, all 12K fans, the FoCo community. Everyone. CSU's forebearers didn't defend the Fort in the 1960's through 2000's in the chess game of conference allignment. Now you show up at closing time looking for some.respect. Last call was years ago. And what beer is still being served is warm, skunky and flat.
Maybe Jack Graham and Tony Franks can undo several decades of neglect. Maybe. Go ahead and hold your breath because CSU is just about to pop.
CU has a horrible recent football record going into the Pac. However CU has been positioning itself with the Big 8, Big 12 and now Pac 12 for decades. CSU was nowhere to be seen.
CU has been at the big boy table alligned with big schools, playing athletic conference chess.
CSU has been at the kiddy table playing Candyland.
Checkmate.
Last edited by a moderator:
Skidslapped
NashBuff
CSU Knob-Slobberer
Exactly. One other reason to get those schools such as BYU, CSU, UNLV, and UNM is that the Pac-12 would have locked up every far western state in the country except Hawaii and Alaska. The Pac-12 will be in better shape than the B1G when it comes to the long term since people are moving away from the midwest to the south or to the west.
The Pac-12 and B1G are usually lock step when it comes to the number of teams. I don't think the B1G is finished expanding due to the demographics but like the Pac, they can take their time to do it right.
To reiterate, expansion is driven by a simple equation.
Will the addition of the school equal more conference revenue for existing members?
The unfortunate answer for many hopefuls is that very few have the home markets and/or national cache to move the needle.
Will the addition of the school equal more conference revenue for existing members?
The unfortunate answer for many hopefuls is that very few have the home markets and/or national cache to move the needle.
The question is, who gets ND?
I read that as "who gets VD"