Just on paper, I had a chance to evaluate the conference. This doesn't mean anything till the Spring game. I've done this a couple times before but I am more clear right now since i know who's enter the draft, transferred via the portal, and what's arriving.
Utah is the team to beat. Why? They return most of their impact guys but did lose Eliss, Laumea, Bishop, and their best player, Vaki. Even lost Matthews and Jackson but replaced them with Singer and Woods who really has good tape. Because of injuries, they played so many guys. Their weak spot was clearly at QB but they return Cam Rising who's one of the best players in college football. This is definitely the early favorites. They don't have any great players outside of Rising for this level, hell not even any really good players but this team is stacked with depth and they got their QB back. I would wage on Utah if I just made a general bet.
After that, you have the safe teams tier: This is the poor man's Utah tier. All of these teams are like Utah but don't recruit as well overall. But excellent coaching, great recruiting plans, has a prototype they go for and schools they like to recruit from. They are generally safe bets, probably would be average as hell in the PAC-12 last year but for the Big 12, they are reliable.
That's Okla State, KS State, and Kansas. All are going off the same template and doing it well. Different styles. OSU likes to run, run, and run and use the pass to make you pay for overplaying the pass. KSU likes to mix it up and use their QB to force you to play to their physical style. Kansas is a speedy team that uses their athletes in space to punish you. When Daniels is healthy, they are a hoot to stop. All three of these teams really did much of anything in the portal. They rely on HS and JUCO recruiting. KSU got hit the hardest in the portal but they had replacements already on their squads. I just don't see much downturn with these three teams. While I don't see them as true contenders either, I see them as teams that will be tough to beat for anyone in the Big XII.
Next tier: We are good but can we contend: This is the West Virginia and Iowa State tier. Both of these teams are going to be good and were solid last year but is it enough? Neither team got blasted or added much in the portal. Both have strong running games and a QB of the future. Greene and White feel like White/Slaton in the 2000s. Greene is one of the best QBs in the nation and White is expected to be one of the best RBs. It's the rest of the team that you want to see what they will do in 2024. Both of these teams are likely better to contender than OSU, KSU, and KU but things can go downhill as they aren't complete teams yet. Still, watch for these two teams.
What the hell are we tier, we can contend or go straight to the bottom: This is Colorado, TCU, and Texas Tech tier. On paper, each of these teams had critical issues and seemed to address them in the portal and HS/JUCO recruiting. That said, on paper. We need to see it. Colorado is the most talented team in the conference, on paper. Texas Tech looks like it's gonna break through, on paper. TCU fixed all of their issues, on paper and Ken Seals is a superior QB to Chandler Morris. You put Seals in the scheme and with that personnel, he will look like an all-Big-XII performer. So much of these teams' success will rely on how it all comes together, fit, development, and coaching.
On paper, these three teams look like contenders. I like them better than OSU, KSU, KU, WV, and ISU who are ahead of them. But in reality, I feel much safer with the safe schools and I know Iowa State and West Virginia are good right now. I am confident in that. Of these three schools, TCU and Texas Tech flash very good and are average too much and CU was average but had superstars and legit talent but were too young with limited chemistry. All three had moments in 2023.
Sleepers, UCF, Cincinnati, and Baylor. UCF loses some studs like their top CB to Louisville and Plumlee is out of eligibility. But they landed Jefferson from Arkansas who's a stud and they really had a good portal and HS recruiting class. I think teams are sleeping on them. Maybe 2024 isn't their year but it could be. Cincy returns all of the OL from one of the best from last year. This team should really be solid. They have studs, just way too many holes due to the portal and the loss of Fiskel. Baylor has a lot of good players but like Cinny, loaded with holes. Like Cincy, I don't know if they filled them. All three aren't bad at all.
Colorado 2023 - Arizona 2024. You have one of the best QBs returning in Noah F and one of the best players in the nation in T-Mac returning. You even return back three OL, what could go wrong? Fisch leaves, defense gets killed via the portal, depth gets killed via the portal, and you lose your best running back who's also one of the best players in the nation via the portal. The draft takes your all-world LT and slot WR as well. This should be a squad that for at least the first 3-4 weeks, shows the nation they got the game but once injuries happen and expect them to happen, they will falter regardless of the best players' efforts.
I am just not that high on them: Arizona State, BYU, and Houston. Two got killed by the portal. ASU gets a lot of solid players but loses very good players as did Houston. BYU is doing BYU. They are just adjusting to the Big XII and I still think they have a couple HS recruiting classes to go till they are fully ready for the jump. They were so used to playing a mixed schedule. Just wasn't ready. Arizona State should be better this year than last but losing impact players and replacing them with solid players isn't a formula of success. That said, if Arizona State is better than Arizona, I wouldn't be shocked.
I look forward to seeing all of these team's in the spring game. The spring game tells me a lot.
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