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Can the Buffs do the impossible?
If you’re here on Ralphie Report, it’s probably safe to assume that means you know about college basketball. Or, at the very least, you like reading about it. You probably listen to informative podcasts about both Buffs teams or make a bunch of brackets each year; you’re the type of person to get angry about the disparity between the the coaches poll and KenPom rankings. You definitely know how many Quad 1 wins the Buffs have this year, and like all of us, you definitely, totally, know what Quad 1 wins means. Things like NET rankings don’t confuse you at all!
But let’s just say, hypothetically, you’re more casual than that. I know you’re not – me neither – but let’s just say you are. Let’s say that you want to keep an eye on how the Buffs are doing this March without screaming at the TV about the efficiency of their half court offense. You’re still a Buffs fan – and want to commiserate with other Buffs fans in your life about Tad Boyle’s rotations – but just a more casual one. Maybe you have a job that “doesn’t let you watch basketball at 11:30 in the morning” or something archaic like that. Well, reader, you’re in luck: this is the guide for you. If you’re looking for three minutes of convo to fill the space before your Zoom meeting officially starts, we’ve got you covered. This is the casual’s guide to a Colorado final four run.
Up First: Boise State
The Buffs’ first game is against the Broncos, which feels like an appropriately-topical mascot matchup for two Western schools. It’s a First Four matchup between two potential 10-seeds, and why 10-seeds have to play First Four games is a good question that I have no real answer for. Boise finished 3rd in the Mountain West conference this season, and lost in their conference tournament to the eventual winner, New Mexico (the 6-seed!). Frankly, the Buffs’ should win – per KenPom, the Buffs’ offense is notably better, and while Boise’s defense is slightly more stingy, it’s marginal. The boring ol’ regular numbers back that up, too: the Broncos averaged 72 points per game while holding opponents to 64, while the Buffs averaged 79 and held opponents to 72. A good line to use in small talk: if the Buffs can get into their normal offensive rhythm, they should be able to take care of this W easily.
After that: Florida
So the Buffs have made it past the weird First Four round and into the actual tournament. Now it’s a Friday afternoon game against Florida, which sounds more daunting than it is. Thanks to our friend Ken Pomeroy, we know that the fancy stats mostly point out that the Gators are actually a lesser team than the Buffs too (so maybe make yourself a nice lil’ chunk of change on those 7-10 game odds you’ll get). This one’s going to feature a bunch of points – efficiency-wise, both teams are above average on offense and below average on defense. The Gators’ had the SEC’s 3rd best offense in terms of points per game, and the 3rd worst defense by the same metric. A good line to use in small talk: the Buffs need to hit their shots to stay with Florida, but if they can lock in on defense just a little, they can really surprise some people.
After that: Marquette
It’s a brutal turnaround, but that’s life when you’re a 10-seed. This is where the Buffs’ three-point shooting can save them: Marquette was just an okay team – on both offense and defense – from three, ending the year 5th in Big East 3-pt margarin. The Buffs were the best 3-point shooting team in the Pac-12, so if they stay hot from beyond the arc (or really just stay within their season averages) maybe they can keep it close. A good line to use in small talk: Marquette finished the season as one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the Big East, so a close game benefits the Buffs (who finished 1st in the Pac-12 there).
After that: Kentucky
In theory, this could also be either Texas Tech or NC State, but for argument and word count’s sake we’re going to say Kentucky gets past them both. The Buffs also head into this game as true underdog, but not by that much! KenPom has Kentucky as the 21st best team in the country, only four spots above Colorado. The Wildcats are an interesting group: of their top-5 guys in terms of minutes played, two are seniors and three are freshmen. Slowing them down will be huge – they have the 9th fastest adjusted tempo in the country. They don’t play defense, though, which again bodes well for CU. A good line to use in small talk: this will be a great battle between two potential NBA lottery picks, KU’s Reed Sheppard and the Buffs’ Cody Williams. Winner gets to play for the Pistons!
After that: Houston/Duke
We’re in uncharted waters now. The good news is that, at this point, it’s been an exciting run and spirits in Boulder are high. The second weekend! Who’d have thought. The bad news is that Duke is very good, and Houston is better. Houston is perfectly happy to slow things down and play hellish defense – they have the 2nd best adjusted defensive numbers in the country, and rank 348th in possessions per 40 minutes. Basically, imagine that scene in Batman where Bane just slowly breaks every bone in Bruce’s body over like 15 minutes. That’s Houston. Duke is a little more of CU’s speed – their offense is better than their defense, but both are still Top-25 units – and they also have a lottery prospect in Kyle Filipowski. Good line to use: This is where the Buffs’ size can help – none of Houston’s three most-played guards are anywhere close to as tall as J’Vonne Hadley, and Duke’s lack of rebounding (comparatively speaking – they were good in the ACC) could be their Achilles heal against a team with the size that CU has.
After that: Final Four
You’re on your own now. Just remember to drink water too.
by camellis
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