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Researching A Theory

moett88

Well-Known Member
Hey my recruiting gurus.....I have returned and I am doing some research for a class I'm giving and need your help. A new list of top 10s for Texas came out on a very respected source. I pulled the top WRs and TE list and added numbers. I'm not adding rankings or additional info cause I want you to do an at glance look and tell me what you think. Then I will provide some history on a few things. Let me know what you guys have got!

Receiver #1 71 1043 14.69 5 Texas
Receiver #2 59 1077 18.13 13 Texas
Receiver #3 (was used as QB past 2 years) Texas A&M
Receiver #4 (was used as athlete) Texas Tech
Receiver #5 64 1273 19.9 16 Texas (flipped from Tech, to A&M to Texas
Receiver #6 (was used as cornerback) Baylor
Receiver #7 30 344 11.5 3 Texas A&M (used some as RB)
Receiver #8 22 473 21.5 10 Uncommitted
Receiver #9 16 384 6 Arkansas
Receiver #10 70 1256 17.94 18 Uncommitted


Tight End #1 53 1019 19.23 18 TCU
Tight End #2 45 583 13.0 2 Uncommitted
Tight End #3 25 370 14.80 3 Iowa State
Tight End #4 40 619 15.48 7 TCU
Tight End #5 (no stats available) Kansas
Tight End #6 (injured) Colorado
Tight End #7 (no stats available) Rice
Tight End #8 9 67 7.44 1
Tight End #9 (no stats for season) Kansas State
Tight End #10 (no stats for season) Boise State

They are ranked in order from 1 to 10th.
 
And sorry for some of the kids.....I usually check 4 to 6 sites and either their numbers were no where to be found, or if I put in a disclaimer it means their numbers were low or non existent at the position they were being ranked and I wanted to be fair (which is another theory i'm working on).
 
so let me guess you are going to try and prove star ratings have a lot to do with the school selected?
 
tante said:
so let me guess you are going to try and prove star ratings have a lot to do with the school selected?
Click to expand...

I have a few things going on with this.......but really the biggest thing was to find out if there is a basic or foundation criteria of how athletes are rated and ranked. Wanting to let other parents know what they are in for and what things they should have their athlete improve on has been very hard because i'm coming to the conclusion that rankings are just subjective. Kinda ready to give up and just inform them of that and use examples on the variations so they can be prepared. Most of the athletes above I have been following for 4 years......thru camps and invite only combines as well as their seasons. A few of the kids on each list are late bloomers, so I was glad to see the consideration but others have moved around alot with strange reason (from what I can figure out).
 
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moett88 said:
The most of the athletes above I have been following for 4 years......thru camps and invite only combines as well as their seasons. A few of the kids on each list are late bloomers, so I was glad to see the consideration but others have moved around alot with strange reason (from what I can figure out).
Click to expand...

and this is exactly why I trust what you say about the kids. I know that you have seen this kids a lot and the more you look at them the more you realize if they can play at the next level or not. I think this is really cool and would love to see the results, but it is going to be really hard to get something accurate out of it. there are probably over 1,000 high school football teams in Texas alone some have great QBs some run all the time, I can't even imagine the job that recruiters have to do in evaluating the talent alone. So you can post all the stats you want and I'll see a player like TE #1 and think he is incredible, but if you tell me you don't think is going to make it, I am going to take your word for it because I know that you know what you are talking about. I am even more amazed that you can find stats on these players because that still doesn't happen good enough in high school football.
 
HISTORY:

Receiver #1's team won 2 games for this season. I've seen others stock drop because of this but not this one.

Tight End #1 and #3 started as true WRs before the summer of senior year. #1 was moved to TE mid summer and stock/rankings shot up. #3 was moved to athlete at the beginning of summer season and with this last ranking just moved to TE (i'm sure to help his ranking and allow room for new athletes to be ranked).

Receiver #6 has bounced back and forth between WR and ATH (heard there were some off the field issues).

Receiver #8 just popped onto the scene, I believe because his team just won 4A DII state title, but numbers are low.

Receiver #9 has had an interesting journey. Has blazing fast speed and did well in combines the last several years but numbers are low. Not sure what has happened. Don't know if there was an injury there.

Last 2 TE have come out of nowhere........haven't gotten a hold of film but last one, again team won state.

So just trying to figure it all out an not having alot of success.
 
tante said:
and this is exactly why I trust what you say about the kids. I know that you have seen this kids a lot and the more you look at them the more you realize if they can play at the next level or not. I think this is really cool and would love to see the results, but it is going to be really hard to get something accurate out of it. there are probably over 1,000 high school football teams in Texas alone some have great QBs some run all the time, I can't even imagine the job that recruiters have to do in evaluating the talent alone. So you can post all the stats you want and I'll see a player like TE #1 and think he is incredible, but if you tell me you don't think is going to make it, I am going to take your word for it because I know that you know what you are talking about. I am even more amazed that you can find stats on these players because that still doesn't happen good enough in high school football.
Click to expand...

Thank you! Thank you! After this year I have even MORE respect for the recruiters out there. I don't know how they do their jobs, stay objective, make sure they "get it right", while having to worry about their jobs! The BEST ride I've gotten to see was Receiver #5. When looking at film, his quickness is NUTTY. His stops and starts really can be a playmaking difference and I will be curious to see how he does at the college level. But the politics behind how he got his Texas offer were amazing......a family member has been ranting and raving for a YEAR on a site. This kid went from truly known by only a few people to being ranked, to moving up the ranks, to committing to Texas Tech, A&M, and now Texas. Funny part about it is now that family member is complaining that the kid should be a 4 star instead of a 3 star. I will crack up if he gets it!
 
moett88 said:
HISTORY:

Receiver #1's team won 2 games for this season. I've seen others stock drop because of this but not this one.

Tight End #1 and #3 started as true WRs before the summer of senior year. #1 was moved to TE mid summer and stock/rankings shot up. #3 was moved to athlete at the beginning of summer season and with this last ranking just moved to TE (i'm sure to help his ranking and allow room for new athletes to be ranked).

Receiver #6 has bounced back and forth between WR and ATH (heard there were some off the field issues).

Receiver #8 just popped onto the scene, I believe because his team just won 4A DII state title, but numbers are low.

Receiver #9 has had an interesting journey. Has blazing fast speed and did well in combines the last several years but numbers are low. Not sure what has happened. Don't know if there was an injury there.

Last 2 TE have come out of nowhere........haven't gotten a hold of film but last one, again team won state.

So just trying to figure it all out an not having alot of success.
Click to expand...

so when can you start as a recruiter coordinator for CU? Based on the numbers alone these are my top WR's and TE's in the order I like them, but I have absolutely no idea the level of competition they played against and basing it just on the numbers you provided. You can probably convince me to flip WR #10 and #5 pretty easily:

Receiver #10 70 1256 17.94 18 Uncommitted
Receiver #5 64 1273 19.9 16 Texas (flipped from Tech, to A&M to Texas
Receiver #2 59 1077 18.13 13 Texas

Tight End #1 53 1019 19.23 18 TCU
Tight End #4 40 619 15.48 7 TCU
Tight End #2 45 583 13.0 2 Uncommitted
 
Realistically the PR from subscription sites is INVALUABLE.........and anyone that says different is kidding themselves. The power of "googling" an athlete is ridiculous and it can make or break many. I've seen it so much over my last 6 years (cause basketball recruiting starts at 6th/7th grade alot of times) its almost shocking.
 
moett88 said:
Realistically the PR from subscription sites is INVALUABLE.........and anyone that says different is kidding themselves. The power of "googling" an athlete is ridiculous and it can make or break many. I've seen it so much over my last 6 years (cause basketball recruiting starts at 6th/7th grade alot of times) its almost shocking.
Click to expand...

this may sound weird, but maybe you should start a PR business for high school athletes. I don't even know if it is legal to do, but to get videos of kids online and get their stats posted and their name out there on opposing fans boards. It might be a way to make some decent money.
 
tante said:
so when can you start as a recruiter coordinator for CU? Based on the numbers alone these are my top WR's and TE's in the order I like them, but I have absolutely no idea the level of competition they played against and basing it just on the numbers you provided. You can probably convince me to flip WR #10 and #5 pretty easily:

Receiver #10 70 1256 17.94 18 Uncommitted
Receiver #5 64 1273 19.9 16 Texas (flipped from Tech, to A&M to Texas
Receiver #2 59 1077 18.13 13 Texas

Tight End #1 53 1019 19.23 18 TCU
Tight End #4 40 619 15.48 7 TCU
Tight End #2 45 583 13.0 2 Uncommitted
Click to expand...

That's pretty funny! Honestly I still have alot to learn. Its kinda scary that my house tvs stay on some sports channel these days as I absorb..........but the family seems to like it.....LOL!

BTW I do think Receiver #10 plays in a weaker district and that may be why they are where they are. I guess that's why when I go thru my own meltdowns its because of watching film and then comparing the ranking. One of the other things I've noticed is the difference from state to state. What is wonderful in one state may not fly in another. So evaluating a 4* in AZ or NJ is different than in AL or TX. I sometimes have to use my own example........originally from CA moving to TX. I think the experience my own has had in TX, could not have gotten any better.......but I wonder if his ranking would've been better had we stayed in CA. Always analyzing and strategizing. My brain hurts!
 
Stats are just part of the equation, which makes it difficult to make comparisons sometimes. This is especially true at tight end. Depending on the system, colleges are looking for very different traits in tight ends.

I think I might like Bralon Addison (#3 WR) more than any other player on that list. Everyone sees something a little bit different.
 
tante said:
this may sound weird, but maybe you should start a PR business for high school athletes. I don't even know if it is legal to do, but to get videos of kids online and get their stats posted and their name out there on opposing fans boards. It might be a way to make some decent money.
Click to expand...

Too funny! My husband and I have actually started a recruiting support business for parents and athletes. We have to be careful not to come across as recruiters because there are a different set of rules with recruiting businesses. So really we want to inform as many as possible because unless you've gone thru recruiting with a kid, it is really hard to grasp some concepts (like giving birth). And mine would be considered a "bubble kid" according to rankings. i can only imagine what a "blue chip' recruit is going thru right now. I thought Corporate America was bad!
 
Boulder Buff said:
Stats are just part of the equation, which makes it difficult to make comparisons sometimes. This is especially true at tight end. Depending on the system, colleges are looking for very different traits in tight ends.

I think I might like Bralon Addison (#3 WR) more than any other player on that list. Everyone sees something a little bit different.
Click to expand...

So true! That's where I'm starting to learn the difference, other than the obvious, between WR and TEs. I've heard to find a true TE is very difficult because they are usually a hybrid between Possession WR and a Lineman. Having to carry more weight but still maintain some speed while being an effective blocker that can turn the defense and open up a hole. Alot of jobs all at once. So I realize that their numbers are gonna be lower than a WR. What I find funny is just how the positions are intermingled and used in the way of rankings to help boost a kid.
 
moett88 said:
Too funny! My husband and I have actually started a recruiting support business for parents and athletes. We have to be careful not to come across as recruiters because there are a different set of rules with recruiting businesses. So really we want to inform as many as possible because unless you've gone thru recruiting with a kid, it is really hard to grasp some concepts (like giving birth). And mine would be considered a "bubble kid" according to rankings. i can only imagine what a "blue chip' recruit is going thru right now. I thought Corporate America was bad!
Click to expand...

I know if I was a parent and I had a "bubble kid" I would pay for this.
 
I too think Bralon got lost in the shuffle because he was used at QB for his team. But did get to see him on a few invite only events a WR. He's pretty complete. Got to meet him and his dad a few times. Enjoyed them alot. Which also opens up another theory on does the high school "fit" hurt some athletes when being evaluated for college level positions?
 
tante said:
I know if I was a parent and I had a "bubble kid" I would pay for this.
Click to expand...

That's what i'm hoping. LOL! So many kids are "bubble kids" and don't know it until their offers are pulled because they waited too long to commit. Many times listening to coaches and family telling them to "hold out" or changing committments several times which sheds a questionable light on them. Had a kid I was following in our district go thru this and it was tough to watch. QB was committed to Oregon and decommitted to go to Baylor. Senior season didn't pan out so well (not sure if he had many WR to throw to), Baylor pulled their offer and now he's been left to fight for a spot. There are some schools circling back around for him but only on a conditional basis......as all of their offers are out now. Watched another kid, RB, get an offer from Auburn in January. Wanted to wait it out and received several offers. Decided to commit to Auburn in July, but Auburn pulled back their scholarship. Currently committed to ASU but might be opening up his recruitment. Just risky!
 
My question in all this is if TE #7 or #9 suddenly was offered and committed to Texas how long would it take before this ranking had him as #1?
 
MtnBuff said:
My question in all this is if TE #7 or #9 suddenly was offered and committed to Texas how long would it take before this ranking had him as #1?
Click to expand...

And there lies the million dollar question. I questioned that along with a few other subscribers and it has been downhill ever since. I told myself I would wait to start asking the tough questions until the son was in Boulder. I jumped the gun and I do see "things have changed". A full list of the state rankings came out a week or so before this. I guess its just another gasoline can in the fire to make sure the son help CU kick butt over the next 4 years.

I guess I should've let that OTHER family member add it to his rants so I wouldn't come off as the protective mom. #notbitterjustinformed:bang:
 
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In looking at the potential market out there, are there many scouting services that offer high quality material to depict players' skills? Most of the films I see uploaded to YouTube are grainy, the kids are hard to see, footwork/mechanics difficult to decipher. It would be yeoman's work to get high quality product produced and posted; but, I believe that big time high schools, well-to-do parents, and FBS programs would pay a premium to have a service that can help focus recruiting efforts.
 
manhattanbuf said:
In looking at the potential market out there, are there many scouting services that offer high quality material to depict players' skills? Most of the films I see uploaded to YouTube are grainy, the kids are hard to see, footwork/mechanics difficult to decipher. It would be yeoman's work to get high quality product produced and posted; but, I believe that big time high schools, well-to-do parents, and FBS programs would pay a premium to have a service that can help focus recruiting efforts.
Click to expand...

Good questions.

To expand on this most of the films out there are highlight tapes and don't reflect what a player looks like on a play by play basis. Want to see that a kid is a superior athlete, that doesn't take much. Just show the kid blowing by a couple of quality teams for big plays, the typical recruit film shows this.

What might set a kid appart is if schools could see a more detailed demonstration of how he plays on an every play basis. Show a close up of the kid applying skills in a game situation. Show him blocking, show a reciever running routes, show a RB blocking and on plays where he doesn't get the ball. On each of these get close enough so an evaluator can see the guys footwork, see his hand technique when he is in contact with opponents, see how a defensive player moves, bases up and tackles.

It may even be good to have some form of taped workout on the practice field. Run a 40 with an electronic timer, show some timable drills with a close-up on the feet, show some of the drills run at camps to evaluate players, provide some of what the coaches would want to see if they were allowed to work a kid out (which they can't by NCAA rules.)

For the kids on the top end this stuff may not be as important. The kids who really stand out will show that. The top programs have the budgets to send a coach to watch a kid play. The kids who this may really help are the kids who are the lower FBS/upper FCS kids and lower. These kids may not have big NFL hopes but a scholly can make a huge difference in their lives.

The lower division schools don't have the staff or budget to get out and see a lot of the kids outside of their areas or at schools that are not as prominent or easily accessable. There are a lot more kids competing for these spots so if a kid can show a coach that he is worth looking at in a tangible way instead of just with highlights it may make a big difference. Also these coaches working on limited budgets may start giving a serious preference to kids who go through the service that provides this kind of tape because they are getting the information that makes their decisions easier to justify without having to put out the time and money.
 
what we are going to see in the future IMO. is all NFL and college players wearing a sensor sewn into their jersey, then they are easy to identify on film since it will all be digitized. Want to see only the plays they are in the game, one mouse click. Want to see the plays where they are within 2 yards of the ball, another mouse click (another sensor will be in the ball). There is still a lot of work to do to get to this level and the PAC:12 network will be a big part of it. Once we see this happen in the college ranks some of the better and ($$$$$) high school conferences will do the same thing and then recruiting will get really crazy.
 
You can't statistically demonstrate that players are highly-rated as a product of where they attend school unless you have a method for dealing with the omitted variable bias and reverse-causality problems inherent in your question. You will need to account for at least two problems:

Players both go to top schools and are highly-rated because they are good prospects. You will need to control for how well-regarded the player is as a prospect; looking at their stats in high school is a mediocre way to do this.

You will also need to control for the fact that top schools may be interested in players that are regarded as top prospects because they are regarded as top prospects. This will probably require the use of an instrumental variable: good luck on that one.

What you are proposing to demonstrate requires a fairly sophisticated application of statistics.
 
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