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Tempering Expectations or How I Started to Worry About Games Away From Boulder

62-36

Member
Let me preface this by saying that I absolutely love this team and can't stop gushing about the job Tad has been doing. This team plays angry, with confidence, and everyone knows their role and plays it well. But I can't stop thinking about how "lucky" we've been thus far by having such a home-heavy schedule. Granted, we're playing GREAT teams there and winning, but what happens when we have to start playing tough road games? Yeah, we played Baylor and Oklahoma City well at neutral locations, but we did lose both games. We still haven't won a game outside of Colorado. I know we've only played two games out of the state, but that's part of my concern. Are we getting too comfortable playing with the home crowd? Is it going to be too much of a shock to our system when we have to go on the road?

Or am I worrying about nothing and I should just enjoy the run?
 
62-36 said:
Let me preface this by saying that I absolutely love this team and can't stop gushing about the job Tad has been doing. This team plays angry, with confidence, and everyone knows their role and plays it well. But I can't stop thinking about how "lucky" we've been thus far by having such a home-heavy schedule. Granted, we're playing GREAT teams there and winning, but what happens when we have to start playing tough road games? Yeah, we played Baylor and Oklahoma City well at neutral locations, but we did lose both games. We still haven't won a game outside of Colorado. I know we've only played two games out of the state, but that's part of my concern. Are we getting too comfortable playing with the home crowd? Is it going to be too much of a shock to our system when we have to go on the road?

Or am I worrying about nothing and I should just enjoy the run?
Click to expand...

There is legitimate concern because the Pac 12 has a lot of solid teams, especially when those teams are playing in front of their home crowd. I think the road is going to be tough and we're going to have to earn every W. I point to UCLA, UA, ASU and Stanford as huge road games for us. UW, Utah, and Cal will be no walk in the park either.
 
We're going to lose some road games. Some of them to teams we know we are better than. Washington is going to tell us a lot.
 
Go into Seattle and come away with a win and that will tell us a whole lot. UW turned some heads by curb stomping ASU the way they did and taking Dick ***** to the limit.
 
Baylor and OSU are two of the top 10 teams in the country and we'll only face that kind of challenge once in conference play. That said, the Utah, Stanford, Cal set to close the season is brutal and I'd expect at least a couple of road losses before then. Similar to last year, anything above .500 on the road in conference play should be considered a success.
 
Enjoy it. Tad has brought this program to a level most never thought possible.
 
One positive is that I don't think we've seen more than a glimpse of how great Dinwiddie can be if he becomes more aggressive. Let's hope he asserts himself in the away games and helps us keep the ball RollTad'ing...
 
Spencer has talked a lot about winning on the road being the next step in proving this is a great team. Just talk right now, but it sounds like he's on a mission. I think we'll see a 15-2 (4-0) team coming home to Boulder next week.
 
Why worry early in the week? We have no control over it. We'll have a better idea by Sunday. Enjoy it!
 
Buffnik said:
Spencer has talked a lot about winning on the road being the next step in proving this is a great team. Just talk right now, but it sounds like he's on a mission. I think we'll see a 15-2 (4-0) team coming home to Boulder next week.
Click to expand...

I'm concerned but agree completely. I think we come home to Boulder (4-0) in conference play. I also think we then sweep the two SoCal schools before going on the road to AZ. That leaves us 17-2 (6-0), than we head to AZ and go 1-1. I think we sit at 18-3 (7-1) after the next six.
 
I wouldn't count the game in Seattle as 'W' just yet. It seems that UDub is getting their act together. The Buffs get a bit of a break in that they play Wazzou in Spokane on Wednesday night and don't have to play in Seattle until Sunday. That will give them more than the normal amount of time to recover and prepare.

For me the key on the road will be the defense. CU isn't going to be hitting 50+% from the floor, so they'll need to cut down on the turnovers and play better 'D'.
 
We'll see what happens. Unlike the teams of the past few years, we actually have good depth now which is huge for road games in my opinion, more so than at home. With bench players that can step up and put up solid games offensively and defensively, we should be in good shape.

We could still easily drop some winnable games on the road as it's still challenging to win on the road in college basketball, but with the way we're playing and the guts this team seems to have I'm feeling pretty confidant.
 
62-36 said:
Let me preface this by saying that I absolutely love this team and can't stop gushing about the job Tad has been doing. This team plays angry, with confidence, and everyone knows their role and plays it well. But I can't stop thinking about how "lucky" we've been thus far by having such a home-heavy schedule. Granted, we're playing GREAT teams there and winning, but what happens when we have to start playing tough road games? Yeah, we played Baylor and Oklahoma City well at neutral locations, but we did lose both games. We still haven't won a game outside of Colorado. I know we've only played two games out of the state, but that's part of my concern. Are we getting too comfortable playing with the home crowd? Is it going to be too much of a shock to our system when we have to go on the road?

Or am I worrying about nothing and I should just enjoy the run?
Click to expand...
Tougher to win in-conference versus OOC teams of equal caliber IMO. I think OOC is easier because the team's aren't as familiar with us, save for some extent for the front range schools. Now I realize that argument can work both ways, as a worse team could potentially be something we haven't seen before but I think since were so much better now than in previous years, they have to play that much better in our place.

All the teams in the P12 know each other. You always have your eye on how other teams in the league are doing. I think were bound to lose some OOC games, even some unexpected ones.

Seeing us being ranked so high, it's hard to temper expectations, but I try to be realistic as well as optimistic.
 
So I know all the stats people throw around about home court advantage. But are they somewhat inflated as good teams play a bunch of cupcakes at home in the early season? Do they have stats about home court advantage for conference play only? That way the caliber of teams and # of home vs away games are equaled out?
 
GoBuffs!! said:
So I know all the stats people throw around about home court advantage. But are they somewhat inflated as good teams play a bunch of cupcakes at home in the early season? Do they have stats about home court advantage for conference play only? That way the caliber of teams and # of home vs away games are equaled out?
Click to expand...
All of major cbb winning %'s looks better b/c of the cupcakes.
 
GoBuffs!! said:
So I know all the stats people throw around about home court advantage. But are they somewhat inflated as good teams play a bunch of cupcakes at home in the early season? Do they have stats about home court advantage for conference play only? That way the caliber of teams and # of home vs away games are equaled out?
Click to expand...

Well, here are our home/away conference play records for the past few years:

2012/13
Home: 6-3
Away: 4-5

2011/12
Home: 8-1
Away: 3-6

2010/11
Home: 6-2
Away: 2-6

2009/10
Home: 5-3
Away: 1-7

2009-2013 (four seasons) Conference Play Records
Home: 25-9 (74%)
Away: 10-24 (29%)
 
Last edited:
62-36 said:
Well, here are our home/away conference play records for the past few years:

2012/13
Home: 6-3
Away: 4-5

2011/12
Home: 8-1
Away: 3-6

2010/11
Home: 6-2
Away: 2-6

2009/10
Home: 5-3
Away: 1-7

2009-2013 (four seasons) Conference Play Records
Home: 25-9 (74%)
Away: 10-24 (29%)
Click to expand...
I remember when we couldn't win a road game, then a road game outside of Colorado, then a road game in conference. The fact were trying to get better than 500 on the road in-conference is real progress.
 
62-36 said:
Well, here are our home/away conference play records for the past few years:

2012/13
Home: 6-3
Away: 4-5

2011/12
Home: 8-1
Away: 3-6

2010/11
Home: 6-2
Away: 2-6

2009/10
Home: 5-3
Away: 1-7

2009-2013 (four seasons) Conference Play Records
Home: 25-9 (74%)
Away: 10-24 (29%)
Click to expand...

Wait a second, didnt realize this till now, 1 win 2010, 2 wins 2011, 3 wins 2012, 4 wins 2013, 5 wins 2014?
 
The WSU game was ugly, but at least we pulled it out. As for UDub, before Spencer went down I thought we looked pretty good. Remains to be seen what happens now if we do in fact lose the Mayor for the year...ugh.
 
62-36 said:
The WSU game was ugly, but at least we pulled it out. As for UDub, before Spencer went down I thought we looked pretty good. Remains to be seen what happens now if we do in fact lose the Mayor for the year...ugh.
Click to expand...

Team looked much better in the 1st half. Likely would have had a double digit lead going into halftime if it wasn't for the injury. We will see how this week in practice goes. No matter what the injury is buffs will be without Spencer this week at the very least and we have another top 25 team coming to Boulder.
 
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