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Official 2014 Bubble Watch Thread

Goose said:
Have to wonder if it hurts them with the play in games being in Dayton. Will the committee avoid them to avoid giving them an advantage?
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They've said they won't put them at advantage or disadvantage to send or not to send them to the play-in game, whether you believe them or not is a different story.
 
I kind of hope Dayton gets in the First Four so we can see all the outrage from people who haven't paid attention to Dayton all year. Nothing is better than fake outrage.
 
cubuffs85 said:
They've said they won't put them at advantage or disadvantage to send or not to send them to the play-in game, whether you believe them or not is a different story.
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If there's any way to avoid it, they will. Getting shipped to Dayton to play a road game against the Flyers would be such a raw deal for anyone. No one goes to that round except Dayton locals. Obviously losing revenue and looking like **** on tv would lead them to never do this, but playing in an empty arena would be far more fair. A lot of early Big Dance games are nearly empty anyway.
 
CVilleBuff said:
If there's any way to avoid it, they will. Getting shipped to Dayton to play a road game against the Flyers would be such a raw deal for anyone. No one goes to that round except Dayton locals. Obviously losing revenue and looking like **** on tv would lead them to never do this, but playing in an empty arena would be far more fair. A lot of early Big Dance games are nearly empty anyway.
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The Tourney has some of the worst atmospheres of any major sports events. Atleast they're no longer playing non-Final Fours in domes.
 
Minnesota going down to Wisconsin. Badgers were in control throughout. Gophers will drop to 20-13. Right on the cut-line, will be an anxious wait for them
 
Would be nice to see a team punch its ticket by beating someone good.
 
CVilleBuff said:
Maybe NCSU can make a surprise run. Resume kinda sucks but if they beat 'Cuse their RPI will be in the mid to lower 50s and they'd have 21 wins.
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Well hell, Cuse goes down to NC State. But I actually wouldn't mind seeing State make a run plus it's great to see them playing on Saturday while the holes are done in this tournament. :lol:
 
CarolinaBuff said:
Well hell, Cuse goes down to NC State. But I actually wouldn't mind seeing State make a run plus it's great to see them playing on Saturday while the holes are done in this tournament. :lol:
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Unfortunately they'd probably have to beat Duke to get a bid and beating Cuse and Duke back to back is rough. RPI is up to 52 though now. They have a chance
 
Providence tops Seton Hall by 6. Seton Hall's RPI is well below 100, but with hardly any bubble teams making moves, this is good for Providence's chances.
 
Southern Miss falls to LA Tech. USM has a healthy RPI but their resume is dog ****. Lunardi's 2nd team out heading into today
 
That last possession by Cuse was crazy, 6 missed shots. If the Orange doesn't get some offense in a hurry they won't get past the first weekend.
 
CarolinaBuff said:
That last possession by Cuse was crazy, 6 missed shots. If the Orange doesn't get some offense in a hurry they won't get past the first weekend.
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I've been suspecting they're headed for an early exit for a few weeks now. I actually like Boeheim. You think they hold a 3 seed, or drop to a 4?
 
CVilleBuff said:
I've been suspecting they're headed for an early exit for a few weeks now. I actually like Boeheim. You think they hold a 3 seed, or drop to a 4?
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I think they can still hold onto a 3 because of their overall body of work. The bigger question is will they still get placed in the East where the regionals are in MSG. They should at least get sent to Buffalo but with losing 5 of their last 7 even that's not a given anymore.
 
Saturday:

Tennessee 21-11 (11-7) vs #1 Florida 30-2 (18-0): Lunardi has Tennessee holding one of the final byes, while Palm has them 2nd to last in. RPI is 41, SOS 30. Tennessee beat South Carolina on Friday, Gamecocks are well below 100 so a win did nothing for the resume. However, other bubble teams have been failing left and right so the Vols have likely gotten a little more comfortable by default. A win over Florida would lock up a bid, no doubt. In the likely case of a loss, things will be dicey. The Vols will likely get in, but they stand a good chance of being shipped to Dayton.

NC State 21-12 (9-9) vs #7 Duke 25-7 (13-5): Lunardi has NC State in his "Next Four Out". Palm only lists first four out and the Wolfpack aren't there. RPI is 52, SOS 40. NC State beat Syracuse on Friday. Sometimes it feels like we reach a point in late February where the same group of bubble teams are rehashed no matter how much they lose, while a team coming on strong late is ignored. NC State has won 4 straight including Syracuse on a neutral court and @ Pittsburgh. They won @ Tennessee earlier in the year. They have 2 bad losses, one to a 27 win North Carolina Central squad whose RPI is 104, and 111 Wake Forest. The truth is, NCSU's addition of wins over Syracuse and Pitt away from home has brought their resume on the verge of being the caliber of any other bubble squad out there. If they lose to Duke they'll fall short and probably deservedly so, but if they beat Duke it's time to clear some of these bubble teams that failed to do anything aside and give this Wolfpack squad that went out and seized the moment a bid.

Providence 22-11 (10-8) vs #14 Creighton 26-6 (14-4): Lunardi has Providence 2nd to last in, Palm has them 3rd to last in. The Friars stumbled by Seton Hall on Friday, but Seton Hall is well below 100 so a win didn't do anything for the Friars' resume. RPI 48, SOS 67. Here's a golden opportunity for Providence to get a high quality win and lock up a bid. If they lose, it's totally up in the air. Neither the RPI nor SOS is impressive, but it's not like the group of teams waiting on the outside have much to offer in terms of impressive numbers, either.

St. Joseph's 22-9 (11-5) vs St. Bonaventure 18-14 (6-10): Lunardi has St. Joseph's holding one of the final byes, while Palm has them all the way up as a 9 seed (projected to face CU). RPI 39, SOS 61. St. Joseph's win over Dayton almost certainly has them in the field (and leaves Daytom sweating it out) but I'm listing St. Joes here still because they're facing a St. Bonaventure team that is barely inside the top 100 and has been bad all year. If St. Joseph's were to lose this, it would be a bad last impression to leave for the committee. Still, hard to see them falling all the way out even with a loss.
 
I would hope when they look at "bad losses" for these bubble teams that it's not as simple as it's either a bad loss or it isn't. Even though the cutoff for what's considered a bad loss to be the top 100 RPI, in the example you mentioned above regarding NC State there 2 bad losses were to teams barely outside the top 100. It would look much worse if say their 2 bad losses were to sub-150 RPI teams.
 
Some good news for bubble teams, which is that only 3 potential bid stealers are still alive in conference tournaments - NCSU in the ACC, St. Bonaventure in the A10, and UGA in the SEC. Although NCSU could also get in even if they don't win the ACC tourney if they beat Duke this afternoon as CVille mentioned.
 
Tennessee loses to Florida by 7. Vols probably get in, but no guarantee.

St. Joes leading St. Bonaventure by 15. St. Joes will be safe as long as they hold on.
 
Watching ohio state michigan... this is the team that won the b1g? Kind of surprised zona played them close
 
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