1[SUP]st[/SUP], wanted to highlight that, in the weekly NCAA Volleyball Coaches Poll released yesterday (http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/volleyball-women/d1/avca-coaches), it’s nice to see the Buff getting votes again, coming in with the 31[SUP]st[/SUP] most votes in the country. With the Buffs going into LA this weekend and playing (both ranked) USC and UCLA, a win over both would I assume give them a good chance to get into the Top 25 as early as next week.
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Then- having too much much time on my hands (and using as inspiration the Buff basketball fan(atic)s who start doing this for BBall pretty early in the season), thought I’d pass along this record, ranking and rating information for the Pac 12 for the soccer and volleyball teams. Then, I wrote a few notes adding hopefully relevant points as far as NCAA tournament selection for the two Buff teams.
So 1st, here is some standing, ranking and rating info for the Pac 12:
Soccer:
Volleyball
(*In case anyone cares to know why, I included this "Pablo" rating since, in the Volleyball forum I frequent, most of the posters seem to think it's a MUCH better indicator of how good a team actually is as opposed to RPI. As I understand it, the main things it factors in its calculation/ algorithm that RPI doesn’t is (a) how close the various team’s and their opponents match scores have been, as well as (b) looking at whether wins or losses are at home or on the road. If you're a stats or very detail oriented person and have some time to waste, Pablo’s explanation of his rating can be found at http://www.richkern.com/vb/rankings/PabloFAQ.asp (warning- as a non-stats/ math/ detail person, it made my head hurt so I stopped reading quickly.) Regarding the Pablo rankings listed above, did want to thank my source, the following post in the main volleyball forum -http://volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/55571/pac-12-week-3 .)
Notes
Of course, as a Buff fan, I wanted to say early on my hopes are that both soccer and volleyball will win the rest of their matches, in which case soccer will end up 9-2 and near the top of the Pac 12, and volleyball will be 18-2 and end up Pac 12 champions.
My notes are based on trying to see how the Buff teams are looking assuming they end up similar to last year (Soccer at 4-4-2, volleyball at 9-11). With both I believe being tournament “bubble” teams last year, If either or both do much better this year, they should safely get into the tournament(s) , while if either or both do very much (or maybe AT ALL) worse they won’t make it in (and obviously won’t deserve to).
I’m probably one of the least knowledgeable people as to what goes into tournament selection, RPI, etc., so apologize in advance for anything inaccurate, and definitely will appreciate corrections.
Notes on Soccer
Based on what I see, it’s looking like the soccer team may need/ want to do a little better this year than last year’s 4-4-2. Thinking this because:
1) RPI- Currently (granted with most of the conference still to play), the Buffs are 10[SUP]th[/SUP] in conference RPI. Last year, the conference received six tournament selections, so, assuming the league isn’t showing as massively improved overall, the Buffs at minimum probably will want to be in the conference top 5-6 in every way possible (Pac-12 standings, RPI, etc.). (I couldn’t easily find how the Buffs RPI last year was in relation to the rest of the conference at selection time, but at the end of the year (which obviously was probably helped by their big DU and BYU wins in the tournament) they ended up 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in conference RPI at #22 nationally.)
2) RPI- Part 2- On the bright side, the Buffs are close to RPI #40 (again, #45 right now), which is what many say makes it “pretty” safe that a team will get into the tournament, but there have been some cases when teams around 40 have NOT been selected (although those generally seem to be in “non-power” conferences). I did find this info for 2006-2012 (couldn’t find more current) for Men’s Basketball as to lowest RPI teams who did NOT make their tournament and visa versa (from http://www.collegerpi.com/subs/rpitrivia.html ):
The highest rated team left out: #21 Missouri St, #30 Hofstra (2006), #30 Air Force (2007)....
among the big six (conferences): #40 Cincinnati (2006).
The lowest rated teams to get at-large bids (ALB): #67 USC, #64 Marquette (2011), #63 NC State (2005), #63 Stanford (2007).
3) Good Wins and Bad Losses- I believe I’ve heard in the past this is another thing selection committees like to look at. (I believe good being defined as beating highly poll and or RPI ranked teams, bad being the opposite.) Obviously, wins like the one against pretty highly ranked USC last weekend are great- KEEP THEM COMING! Unfortunately, Buffs soccer (like volleyball last year when they lost to RPI #137 Wyoming), probably already has one “bad” loss this year, to last year-end RPI #154 and this week RPI #142 Kent State. Looking forward, the only potential “bad” loss the Buffs could suffer in conference would be to RPI #203 Oregon State, while there are at least a few more opportunities for “good” wins in the tough Pac 12, so hopefully the Buffs can get some to improve them in the eyes of their selection committee.
4) Of course, in the wacky world of RPI- I believe how the Buffs non-conference opponents do (and how THEIR opponents do) the rest of the year is somewhat important- so go DU, CSU, Kent State, etc.!
Volleyball
1) RPI-Re RPI, they’re already pretty high at 34, and pretty much only play other high and at WORSE middle of the road RPI teams the rest of the way in the BRUTAL Pac 12, so I think if the Buffs can get to 9 wins in the Pac 12 like last year, it would take some stange circumstances for them not to get into the tournament. The Pac 12 volleyball conference is so strong, and is even stronger relatively this year than last; it will probably get at minimum 9 teams into the tournament, as it did last year. (Last year, average conference RPI ended up at 40. To date, this year is at 26.)
2) One thing that could (although I think it unlikely to matter) occur is that, if the Buffs overall winning % isn’t high enough, they could have a good enough “resume” to get selected, but not meet the minimum NCAA winning record requirement. I believe there is a requirement, but don’t know exactly what it is. Does anyone else know- is the rule that you need a WINNING record? Or, do you only need to be AT .500 OR better? (The reason I wonder about this is the Buffs could have 8 conference wins, be in the top 7-8 or so in conference, still be around 40 in RPI, but that 8 conference wins would only give them a 16-16 overall record.)
3) Big Wins and Bad Losses- The win against AZ gave the Buffs I assume their 1[SUP]st[/SUP] big win- KEEP IT UP! As to bad losses, it looks like the Buffs won’t have any this year, as no loss in the Pac 12, at least in the RPI sense, looks like it would be a “bad” loss to a committee. And, thankfully, it looks to me like all the teams the Buffs lost to in non-conference are doing well, so I don’t think any of those non-conference losses this year will end up being considered “bad “ ones, at least to the committee:
a. Illinois is still ranked (Ranked 15[SUP]th[/SUP] in the country, #11 RPI),
b. Northwestern (entered the Top 25 at #24 this week, #22 RPI),
c. Creighton (Receiving votes nationally (so unofficially #28 ranked), #41 RPI),
d. South Dakota (#56 RPI- A little nervous about this one since I assume their conference is relatively weak, so their RPI will go down some as their opponents won’t have high RPI’s. However, they do seem to be doing well (5-0 in conference so far), so I can’t imagine them falling below RPI #100, which seems to be a dividing line as to when a loss might be considered “bad” to a selection committee.)
General Notes
1) I did find out that this is the formula for RPI (from Wikipedia), but my mind spins when trying to figure out what it means in the real world as to what causes it to go up and go down. (On the face of it, it looks like it’s more important how your opponents and THEIR opponents do than actually winning games/ matches yourself, which seems macabre to me.):
“In its current formulation, the index comprises a team's winning percentage (25%), its opponents' winning percentage (50%), and the winning percentage of those opponents' opponents (25%). The opponents' winning percentage and the winning percentage of those opponents' opponents both comprise the strength of schedule (SOS). Thus, the SOS accounts for 75% of the RPI calculation and is 2/3 its opponents' winning percentage and 1/3 its opponents' opponents' winning percentage.”
2) Had never looked it up before, but found a couple things direct from the selection committee rules. (Note- These were from Basketball’s committee last year (http://www.ncaa.com/content/di-principles-and-procedures-selection ), but since they are so general assume they are similar or identical for other sports.)
A) The overall goal of the committees are (assume predictably) very basic “The committee selects the 36 best teams not otherwise automatic qualifiers for their conference to fill the at-large berths. There is no limit on the number of at-large teams the committee may select from one conference;” (Note/ question- not sure if soccer and volleyball have the exact same # of at large teams or not?)
B) What the committees have as resources- “Among the resources available to the committee are complete box scores, game summaries and notes, pertinent information submitted on a team’s behalf by its conference, various computer rankings, injury reports, head-to-head results, chronological results, Division I results, non-conference results, home, away and neutral results, rankings, polls and the NABC regional advisory committee rankings.”
__________________________
Then- having too much much time on my hands (and using as inspiration the Buff basketball fan(atic)s who start doing this for BBall pretty early in the season), thought I’d pass along this record, ranking and rating information for the Pac 12 for the soccer and volleyball teams. Then, I wrote a few notes adding hopefully relevant points as far as NCAA tournament selection for the two Buff teams.
So 1st, here is some standing, ranking and rating info for the Pac 12:
Soccer:
Volleyball
(*In case anyone cares to know why, I included this "Pablo" rating since, in the Volleyball forum I frequent, most of the posters seem to think it's a MUCH better indicator of how good a team actually is as opposed to RPI. As I understand it, the main things it factors in its calculation/ algorithm that RPI doesn’t is (a) how close the various team’s and their opponents match scores have been, as well as (b) looking at whether wins or losses are at home or on the road. If you're a stats or very detail oriented person and have some time to waste, Pablo’s explanation of his rating can be found at http://www.richkern.com/vb/rankings/PabloFAQ.asp (warning- as a non-stats/ math/ detail person, it made my head hurt so I stopped reading quickly.) Regarding the Pablo rankings listed above, did want to thank my source, the following post in the main volleyball forum -http://volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/55571/pac-12-week-3 .)
Notes
Of course, as a Buff fan, I wanted to say early on my hopes are that both soccer and volleyball will win the rest of their matches, in which case soccer will end up 9-2 and near the top of the Pac 12, and volleyball will be 18-2 and end up Pac 12 champions.
My notes are based on trying to see how the Buff teams are looking assuming they end up similar to last year (Soccer at 4-4-2, volleyball at 9-11). With both I believe being tournament “bubble” teams last year, If either or both do much better this year, they should safely get into the tournament(s) , while if either or both do very much (or maybe AT ALL) worse they won’t make it in (and obviously won’t deserve to).
I’m probably one of the least knowledgeable people as to what goes into tournament selection, RPI, etc., so apologize in advance for anything inaccurate, and definitely will appreciate corrections.
Notes on Soccer
Based on what I see, it’s looking like the soccer team may need/ want to do a little better this year than last year’s 4-4-2. Thinking this because:
1) RPI- Currently (granted with most of the conference still to play), the Buffs are 10[SUP]th[/SUP] in conference RPI. Last year, the conference received six tournament selections, so, assuming the league isn’t showing as massively improved overall, the Buffs at minimum probably will want to be in the conference top 5-6 in every way possible (Pac-12 standings, RPI, etc.). (I couldn’t easily find how the Buffs RPI last year was in relation to the rest of the conference at selection time, but at the end of the year (which obviously was probably helped by their big DU and BYU wins in the tournament) they ended up 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in conference RPI at #22 nationally.)
2) RPI- Part 2- On the bright side, the Buffs are close to RPI #40 (again, #45 right now), which is what many say makes it “pretty” safe that a team will get into the tournament, but there have been some cases when teams around 40 have NOT been selected (although those generally seem to be in “non-power” conferences). I did find this info for 2006-2012 (couldn’t find more current) for Men’s Basketball as to lowest RPI teams who did NOT make their tournament and visa versa (from http://www.collegerpi.com/subs/rpitrivia.html ):
The highest rated team left out: #21 Missouri St, #30 Hofstra (2006), #30 Air Force (2007)....
among the big six (conferences): #40 Cincinnati (2006).
The lowest rated teams to get at-large bids (ALB): #67 USC, #64 Marquette (2011), #63 NC State (2005), #63 Stanford (2007).
3) Good Wins and Bad Losses- I believe I’ve heard in the past this is another thing selection committees like to look at. (I believe good being defined as beating highly poll and or RPI ranked teams, bad being the opposite.) Obviously, wins like the one against pretty highly ranked USC last weekend are great- KEEP THEM COMING! Unfortunately, Buffs soccer (like volleyball last year when they lost to RPI #137 Wyoming), probably already has one “bad” loss this year, to last year-end RPI #154 and this week RPI #142 Kent State. Looking forward, the only potential “bad” loss the Buffs could suffer in conference would be to RPI #203 Oregon State, while there are at least a few more opportunities for “good” wins in the tough Pac 12, so hopefully the Buffs can get some to improve them in the eyes of their selection committee.
4) Of course, in the wacky world of RPI- I believe how the Buffs non-conference opponents do (and how THEIR opponents do) the rest of the year is somewhat important- so go DU, CSU, Kent State, etc.!
Volleyball
1) RPI-Re RPI, they’re already pretty high at 34, and pretty much only play other high and at WORSE middle of the road RPI teams the rest of the way in the BRUTAL Pac 12, so I think if the Buffs can get to 9 wins in the Pac 12 like last year, it would take some stange circumstances for them not to get into the tournament. The Pac 12 volleyball conference is so strong, and is even stronger relatively this year than last; it will probably get at minimum 9 teams into the tournament, as it did last year. (Last year, average conference RPI ended up at 40. To date, this year is at 26.)
2) One thing that could (although I think it unlikely to matter) occur is that, if the Buffs overall winning % isn’t high enough, they could have a good enough “resume” to get selected, but not meet the minimum NCAA winning record requirement. I believe there is a requirement, but don’t know exactly what it is. Does anyone else know- is the rule that you need a WINNING record? Or, do you only need to be AT .500 OR better? (The reason I wonder about this is the Buffs could have 8 conference wins, be in the top 7-8 or so in conference, still be around 40 in RPI, but that 8 conference wins would only give them a 16-16 overall record.)
3) Big Wins and Bad Losses- The win against AZ gave the Buffs I assume their 1[SUP]st[/SUP] big win- KEEP IT UP! As to bad losses, it looks like the Buffs won’t have any this year, as no loss in the Pac 12, at least in the RPI sense, looks like it would be a “bad” loss to a committee. And, thankfully, it looks to me like all the teams the Buffs lost to in non-conference are doing well, so I don’t think any of those non-conference losses this year will end up being considered “bad “ ones, at least to the committee:
a. Illinois is still ranked (Ranked 15[SUP]th[/SUP] in the country, #11 RPI),
b. Northwestern (entered the Top 25 at #24 this week, #22 RPI),
c. Creighton (Receiving votes nationally (so unofficially #28 ranked), #41 RPI),
d. South Dakota (#56 RPI- A little nervous about this one since I assume their conference is relatively weak, so their RPI will go down some as their opponents won’t have high RPI’s. However, they do seem to be doing well (5-0 in conference so far), so I can’t imagine them falling below RPI #100, which seems to be a dividing line as to when a loss might be considered “bad” to a selection committee.)
General Notes
1) I did find out that this is the formula for RPI (from Wikipedia), but my mind spins when trying to figure out what it means in the real world as to what causes it to go up and go down. (On the face of it, it looks like it’s more important how your opponents and THEIR opponents do than actually winning games/ matches yourself, which seems macabre to me.):
“In its current formulation, the index comprises a team's winning percentage (25%), its opponents' winning percentage (50%), and the winning percentage of those opponents' opponents (25%). The opponents' winning percentage and the winning percentage of those opponents' opponents both comprise the strength of schedule (SOS). Thus, the SOS accounts for 75% of the RPI calculation and is 2/3 its opponents' winning percentage and 1/3 its opponents' opponents' winning percentage.”
2) Had never looked it up before, but found a couple things direct from the selection committee rules. (Note- These were from Basketball’s committee last year (http://www.ncaa.com/content/di-principles-and-procedures-selection ), but since they are so general assume they are similar or identical for other sports.)
A) The overall goal of the committees are (assume predictably) very basic “The committee selects the 36 best teams not otherwise automatic qualifiers for their conference to fill the at-large berths. There is no limit on the number of at-large teams the committee may select from one conference;” (Note/ question- not sure if soccer and volleyball have the exact same # of at large teams or not?)
B) What the committees have as resources- “Among the resources available to the committee are complete box scores, game summaries and notes, pertinent information submitted on a team’s behalf by its conference, various computer rankings, injury reports, head-to-head results, chronological results, Division I results, non-conference results, home, away and neutral results, rankings, polls and the NABC regional advisory committee rankings.”
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