Cautious optimism?

[seattlebuff]

Seems like we need a catch-all thread for the future of the program ... I've been very critical of the guards and our overall "talent" this year. Knowing these same guys were coming back, and there's no real savior coming in from recruiting or transfers, I was feeling like we were destined to slide back into the old CU hoops malaise. But over the last 4-5 games, there's been some reason to feel a little better about next year:

• Dom was the one guy I never felt too down on ... even when he struggled early, you could still see a court awareness there, and occasional flashes of being a dangerous player. The last 4-5 games, he looks ready to take the next step. If he doesn't stagnate and puts on some muscle, he can be the answer at PG.
• I've also liked Fletch and DT's willingness to attack the basket and overall offensive mindset. With offensive liabilities like JHop, Wes and Talton sucking up minutes, we need someone to have that aggressiveness. They both have major issues with TOs, but I like the hustle.
• We'll miss Ski terribly next year, of course, but there were many times this year (including the 2 first halves in Vegas) where he didn't score and yet we were OK on offense. Maybe more than anyone in the P12, Ski would often penetrate halfway to the hoop, get trapped and then desperately try to find an open man. That throws your offense out of rhythm sometimes. Without that streetball element on the floor for us next year, maybe Tad finds a way to get the Xs and Os dialed in, and get the ball to Josh in better positions.

None of this solves our severe lack of perimeter threats, and our regression on defense. I think we can get back to Tadball on the latter. But the outside shooting remains a glaring issue.

 

[wyobuff]

None of this solves our severe lack of perimeter threats, and our regression on defense. I think we can get back to Tadball on the latter. But the outside shooting remains a glaring issue.

Fortune shot 35% from deep 2013-2014 when with the friars.

 

[Quattro]

Three guys shot over 35% from 3. All three are back (at this point)

The "lack of a perimeter threat" is a very overplayed card this year. What is the acceptable number of guys to have who shoot >35% from 3?

 

[seattlebuff]

Three guys shot over 35% from 3. All three are back (at this point)

The "lack of a perimeter threat" is a very overplayed card this year. What is the acceptable number of guys to have who shoot >35% from 3?

As I've said countless times before, and others have backed up, 3pt shooting percentage is by far not the only measure of 'perimeter threat'. Look at the number of 2 pt jump shots Oregon buried in the second half last night. We need 2-3 guys who can take 2-3 dribbles and hit a jump shot with someone in their face, with reasonable consistency. All the good teams have a few on roster. Ski is the only one for us.

 

[seattlebuff]

Fortune shot 35% from deep 2013-2014 when with the friars.

So basically Fortune replaces Ski ... so we're back to neutral.

 

[Quattro]

As I've said countless times before, and others have backed up, 3pt shooting percentage is by far not the only measure of 'perimeter threat'. Look at the number of 2 pt jump shots Oregon buried in the second half last night. We need 2-3 guys who can take 2-3 dribbles and hit a jump shot with someone in their face, with reasonable consistency. All the good teams have a few on roster. Ski is the only one for us.

You're asking for a NBA level shooter then. Seems reasonable.

 

[Buffnik]

Three guys shot over 35% from 3. All three are back (at this point)

The "lack of a perimeter threat" is a very overplayed card this year. What is the acceptable number of guys to have who shoot >35% from 3?

Exactly.

The main issue with the talent on this year's team was lack of size, length, strength on the perimeter. Tad was bitching about this all the way back in pre-season practices. Buffs could not defend quality guards and also couldn't break down a defense to finish at the rim or get fouled.

Josh Fortune is 6'5" and over 200 lbs. He was well-regarded as a Big East defender. He fits the mold.

Jaron Hopkins is 6'6" and 200 lbs. He also fits the mold if he can settle himself down.

Tre'Shaun Fletcher is 6'7" and over 200 lbs. He fits the mold.

George King is 6'6" and solidly over 210 lbs. He fits the mold.

Beyond that:

Dominique Collier is 6'2" and 170 lbs at most. The height is fine for one of the guards on the court since the other team is generally going to have one quick, small guard. Dom's also got good length to make up for the height a bit. He's also got very quick hands, which makes up for some of the quickness disadvantages he'll have against the Ty Lawson types he'll see in the Pac-12. He has also shown that he can get to the rim and use his length to finish effectively. He needs to hit the weight room in a big way this offseason, though. It will help him so much on defense when he's fighting through screens. It will also make a world of difference when he has the ball in traffic or at the rim.

Xavier Talton is 6'3" and under 200 lbs. He's not big enough for defending a big guard and not athletic enough for a small guard. I think he's capable as a senior of being a limited minutes backup at the 2 if he'll limit his offense to letting it fly when he has an open 3. He's also fairly reliable from the FT line so he can be a 4th ball handler in an end-game situation. His lack of court awareness on both ends despite all the minutes he has played makes me skeptical that there will be a role for him in 2015-16.

Eli Stalzer is 6'3" and around 200 lbs. Same comments as with Talton except that he doesn't have much of a shot to speak of. He was a DNP in 15 games this year and he'd be likely to see even fewer minutes next season. Tad's got walk-ons like Brett Brady who might see more action in 2015-16.

Recruits:

Deleon Brown is 6'4" and around 170 lbs. He'll be here in 2016-17. Needs to get bigger/stronger during his prep school year and further develop his handle so he can play some point guard.

Cameron Satterwhite is 6'4" and around 175 lbs. He'll also be here in 2016-17. Notes are the same as with Brown, but the main thing here is that this is very much about whether he hits his expected growth and is in the Fletch category or taller by the time he arrives.

With 2015 recruiting and guards who can be here for next season, the guy I want is Tyson Jolly. He's 6'4" and around 200 lbs. Solidly built, athletic, defends and is a true point guard. Tad needs to open a spot on this roster and find a way to get him in here as an option besides Dom to run the point.

 

[NW Buff]

Three guys shot over 35% from 3. All three are back (at this point)

The "lack of a perimeter threat" is a very overplayed card this year. What is the acceptable number of guys to have who shoot >35% from 3?

Two of the three had fewer than 45 attempts from 3. Even XJ only had 75 attempts (although he did miss a lot of games). It's more than just the %, it's the willingness to take the shot and sustain that % while doing it. There were a lot of times this year when everybody not named Ski clearly didn't want to take the shot.

 

[MtnBuff]

Can't even think about the future without thinking about Miller.

He proved this season that he can be a physical force in the paint and is athletic enough that he doesn't slow down a team that wants to run and move. He could develop into a nightmare for opponents to defend.

Don't know why Wes seemed to regress in many ways this year but I hold a lot of hope that he will turn it around next year. If he does it means we have a mobile big guy who can rebound and defend and when he is on be enough of a scoring threat to force teams to account for him. He is a key for our next couple years.