What programs could compete with only in-state talent?

[Buffnik]

Assuming that all in-state talent would sign with an in-state P5 program, what programs would have a chance?

In CA, talent would be divided by 4 (USC, Cal, UCLA, Stanford). TX divided by 5 (UT, A&M, Baylor, TCU, TTU). FL by 3, GA and PA by 2, and states like OH and LA by 1. Etc.

What P5 programs would have a shot at a national title every year? Which would be in the mix every so often? Which would struggle to have winning seasons? Which may never have much of an opportunity for a winning season?

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I think LSU would be well positioned every year. Otherwise, the Florida programs would probably dominate.

 

[Buffnik]

I think I'd put CU in the bucket of programs that would be fighting for a .500 record. But with that, maybe the best shape of all the non-CA PAC-12 programs.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I think I'd put CU in the bucket of programs that would be fighting for a .500 record. But with that, maybe the best shape of all the non-CA PAC-12 programs.

I think Arizona schools would be okay. CU would really struggle as there are only about 8-10 legit P5 players that come out of the state every year, and I would say half of those end up as depth guys only. Of course, every so often a Christian McCaffrey or Max Borghi would come along and provide an elite talent. Ironically, the OL would be the strong point of the program.

 

[Buffnik]

I think Arizona schools would be okay. CU would really struggle as there are only about 8-10 legit P5 players that come out of the state every year, and I would say half of those end up as depth guys only. Of course, every so often a Christian McCaffrey or Max Borghi would come along and provide an elite talent. Ironically, the OL would be the strong point of the program.

CU would have a pretty good offense, I think. OL, TE, RB, WR and QB have all been solid. Specialists would be very good. It's defense where the roster would be incredibly thin.

 

[GuySmiley]

I think Arizona schools would be okay. CU would really struggle as there are only about 8-10 legit P5 players that come out of the state every year, and I would say half of those end up as depth guys only. Of course, every so often a Christian McCaffrey or Max Borghi would come along and provide an elite talent. Ironically, the OL would be the strong point of the program.

I would agree. I'm pretty surprised with the increase in HS talent in AZ over the past 10 years or so. Outside of our conference, I think NV would be a decent all-State team--UNLV would take most all the top guys. LV HS ball has vastly improved...

Agree LSU and the Florida schools would probably dominate. Maybe UT; but they have stiff in-state competition.

 

[Duff Man]

Rutgers would be a regular contender in the Big 10.

Georgia and LSU would be even better than they have been the last couple decades.

Hawaii would be a G5 power.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

CU would have a pretty good offense, I think. OL, TE, RB, WR and QB have all been solid. Specialists would be very good. It's defense where the roster would be incredibly thin.

2018 - 2021 CO recruiting classes that signed or are likely to sign a P5 scholarship offer... QB would be decent, OL would be solid, but would need a great 2022 class to keep that going, RB would be a one man show with Borghi and nothing after that, TE would be amazing going forward but awful the last few years, WR would be awful, and then the entire defense.... YIKES....

Spoiler: CO Position recruiting breakdown

QB
2018 - Stenstrom (CU)
2019 - McCaffrey (Neb), Evans (NC State), Padilla (Iowa)
2020 - Marsh (KSU)
2021 - Rubley (KSU)

OL
2018 - Lovell (ASU)
2019 - Miller (Stanford), Lynn (Neb), Johnson (CU), Nugent (Stanford), Wiley (CU)
2020 - Gentry (UVA), Rosengarten (Wash), Atteberry (Mich), Lee (CU), Willis (KSU)
2021 - Zuhn (aTm), Zilinskis (Rutgers)

TE
2018 - N/A
2019 - N/A
2020 - Taylor (LSU)
2021 - Ferguson (Oregon), Hart (tOSU), Olsen (CU), Helm (??)

RB
2018 - Borghi (WSU)
2019 - Davis (CU)
2020 - Stacks (CU)
2021 - N/A

WR
2018 - Stanley (CU)
2019 - Pospisil (WSU)
2020 - N/A
2021 - Penry (CU)

DL
2018 - Wildeman (Nebraska)
2019 - Townsend (Oregon)
2020 - Keanaaina (Notre Dame)
2021 - Walker (??), Wood (KSU),

LB
2018 - Jackson (Oregon)
2019 - Pell (CU)
2020 - N/A
2021 - N/A

DB
2018 - Robinson (CU)
2019 - Oliver (CU)
2020 - Lofy (Wisconsin)
2021 - Freyler (Iowa State), Ashford (CU??)

 

[hokiehead]

I think @Buffnik and @TSchekler answered the question fairly well about which programs would still compete for the MNC.

on the question of which schools could still consistently have winning seasons:

• SEC: South Carolina would be in good position for consistent >.500 seasons
• AAC: Central Florida, South Florida and Houston would dominate under this model
• C-USA: Florida Atlantic, LA Tech, Charlotte, So Miss would do well. There's four non-P5 TX schools in that confernece, which I suspect that would cause a dilution between them.
• ACC: UNC-CH and NCSU would benefit largely through stopping the bleed of their recruits leaving the state
• MWC: the three Cali schools would likely have consistent winning seasons

Notre Dame and BYU would die.
Oregon would die.
Boise State would die.
All the service academies would really suffer.

I also note the ACC would get a lot stronger on the national stage (Miami, FSU, GIT) and the B1G would get a lot weaker. The XII may become the top conference in the nation.

The Sun Belt Conference would become really interesting as 9/10 of their schools are located in the top ten states for recruiting.

if we assume the rumors true that many of the big time programs cheat through paying recruits, I would see this trickle down into incentivizing high school students to move to the home state of said university during the recruits Senior year of HS.

 

[Buffnik]

2018 - 2021 CO recruiting classes that signed or are likely to sign a P5 scholarship offer... QB would be decent, OL would be solid, but would need a great 2022 class to keep that going, RB would be a one man show with Borghi and nothing after that, TE would be amazing going forward but awful the last few years, WR would be awful, and then the entire defense.... YIKES....

Spoiler: CO Position recruiting breakdown

QB
2018 - Stenstrom (CU)
2019 - McCaffrey (Neb), Evans (NC State), Padilla (Iowa)
2020 - Marsh (KSU)
2021 - Rubley (KSU)

OL
2018 - Lovell (ASU)
2019 - Miller (Stanford), Lynn (Neb), Johnson (CU), Nugent (Stanford), Wiley (CU)
2020 - Gentry (UVA), Rosengarten (Wash), Atteberry (Mich), Lee (CU), Willis (KSU)
2021 - Zuhn (aTm), Zilinskis (Rutgers)

TE
2018 - N/A
2019 - N/A
2020 - Taylor (LSU)
2021 - Ferguson (Oregon), Hart (tOSU), Olsen (CU), Helm (??)

RB
2018 - Borghi (WSU)
2019 - Davis (CU)
2020 - Stacks (CU)
2021 - N/A

WR
2018 - Stanley (CU)
2019 - Pospisil (WSU)
2020 - N/A
2021 - Penry (CU)

DL
2018 - Wildeman (****braska)
2019 - Townsend (Oregon)
2020 - Keanaaina (Notre Dame)
2021 - Walker (??), Wood (KSU),

LB
2018 - Jackson (Oregon)
2019 - Pell (CU)
2020 - N/A
2021 - N/A

DB
2018 - Robinson (CU)
2019 - Oliver (CU)
2020 - Lofy (Wisconsin)
2021 - Freyler (Iowa State), Ashford (CU??)

You'd also have all the G5 guys who ended up at CSU, WYO and elsewhere to add in. That fills out some of those position groups very well. There are a good number of those guys who would fill up the roster in this scenario. Some who would be high quality starters on a P5 team.

CU would be able to field a team that wasn't great but also didn't suck.

 

[hokiehead]

Rutgers would be a regular contender in the Big 10.

Georgia and LSU would be even better than they have been the last couple decades.

Hawaii would be a G5 power.

I didn't realize NJ was a source for recruits, but you're right.

good call on Hawaii. I didn't mention them b/c they play in a division with three Cali schools, but if they retain ~100% the HI recruits, they'd be in good shape.

 

[Buffnik]

I think @Buffnik and @TSchekler answered the question fairly well about which programs would still compete for the MNC.

on the question of which schools could still consistently have winning seasons:

• SEC: South Carolina would be in good position for consistent >.500 seasons
• AAC: Central Florida, South Florida and Houston would dominate under this model
• C-USA: Florida Atlantic, LA Tech, Charlotte, So Miss would do well. There's four non-P5 TX schools in that confernece, which I suspect that would cause a dilution between them.
• ACC: UNC-CH and NCSU would benefit largely through stopping the bleed of their recruits leaving the state
• MWC: the three Cali schools would likely have consistent winning seasons

Notre Dame and BYU would die.
Oregon would die.
Boise State would die.
All the service academies would really suffer.

I also note the ACC would get a lot stronger on the national stage (Miami, FSU, GIT) and the B1G would get a lot weaker. The XII may become the top conference in the nation.

The Sun Belt Conference would become really interesting as 9/10 of their schools are located in the top ten states for recruiting.

if we assume the rumors true that many of the big time programs cheat through paying recruits, I would see this trickle down into incentivizing high school students to move to the home state of said university during the recruits Senior year of HS.

UNC and NCST would be splitting up all the NC recruits 4 ways because of Duke and Wake. That's more in-state P5s than in FL.

I think Maryland would be a player, especially if we included DC (or gave MD & VA equal opportunity to divide the DC recruits split 3 ways).

 

[manhattanbuff]

I’m confused. When was the last time a QB from Colorado was the regular starter for a top 25 team?

 

[hokiehead]

UNC and NCST would be splitting up all the NC recruits 4 ways because of Duke and Wake. That's more in-state P5s than in FL.

I think Maryland would be a player, especially if we included DC (or gave MD & VA equal opportunity to divide the DC recruits split 3 ways).

yes, but NC bleeds a ton of their recruits to SC and VA. I was thinking they'd gain when that bleeding stopped.

 

[Buffnik]

I’m confused. When was the last time a QB from Colorado was the regular starter for a top 25 team?

Collin Klein maybe?

Lots of 4* QBs, but you're right that we haven't seen many pan out. Cyler Miles is pretty notable due to it being off-field stuff that got in the way for him at UW. McCaffrey at UM looks like a QB you could win with.

 

[GuySmiley]

There was another guy from DPL (I forgot his name) that started a season for Miami, but that was 15-20 years ago... Colorado has not been a hot bed for QB's that pan-out.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

You'd also have all the G5 guys who ended up at CSU, WYO and elsewhere to add in. That fills out some of those position groups very well. There are a good number of those guys who would fill up the roster in this scenario. Some who would be high quality starters on a P5 team.

CU would be able to field a team that wasn't great but also didn't suck.

Yeah, I think it would even out. I wonder what the hit rate is on CO P5 kids? 50% or less? Some of the guys I listed will be no better than depth guys on P5 rosters, while a few G5 level guys each year will prove to be solid players who could start for a mediocre P5 team. End of the day, though, all in-state recruiting for CU would likely be on par with the lower rated MM classes and have the program struggling to get to 6 wins.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I’m confused. When was the last time a QB from Colorado was the regular starter for a top 25 team?

I think Dylan and Luke McCaffrey could be solid QBs, and we'll see on Ty Evans and Rubley. There seem to be more guys coming out of the state in recent years than most other times in the past.

 

[manhattanbuff]

I think Dylan and Luke McCaffrey could be solid QBs, and we'll see on Ty Evans and Rubley. There seem to be more guys coming out of the state in recent years than most other times in the past.

So, the answer is none, right?

Dylan McCaffrey will get a shot this year so long as he can stay on the field and healthy (hasn’t done either yet before his upcoming senior season).

Luke McCaffrey is still firmly behind Adrian Martinez this year and next year. nuh isn’t a top 25 team with either of these at QB.

Ty Evans isn’t the starter in a crowded QB room with other young, talented QBs. NCSU isn’t a top 25 team either.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

So, the answer is none, right?

Dylan McCaffrey will get a shot this year so long as he can stay on the field and healthy (hasn’t done either yet before his upcoming senior season).

Luke McCaffrey is still firmly behind Adrian Martinez this year and next year. nuh isn’t a top 25 team with either of these at QB.

Ty Evans isn’t the starter in a crowded QB room with other young, talented QBs. NCSU isn’t a top 25 team either.

I think we're trying to figure out if CU would be a 6 win team with in-state players, not whether they are a top 25 team. I'm also not sure Luke will be behind AM for two more years. One of them will transfer. Luke is a good player.

 

[manhattanbuff]

I think we're trying to figure out if CU would be a 6 win team with in-state players, not whether they are a top 25 team. I'm also not sure Luke will be behind AM for two more years. One of them will transfer. Luke is a good player.

If the best QBs from California have to stay home, Colorado isn’t a six win team then either. The QBs from Colorado are depth players in most places for good reason.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

If the best QBs from California have to stay home, Colorado isn’t a six win team then either. The QBs from Colorado are depth players in most places for good reason.

A lot of wasted QB talent in California, if this was the case, that's for sure

 

[jizzrag85]

Interesting thought. But for the most part who is good now will continue to be good. Colorado would continue to be a mediocre program, possibly much worse.

 

[patebuff]

Nebraska wouldn't even be able to field a G5 team and it would be glorious

 

[manhattanbuff]

A lot of wasted QB talent in California, if this was the case, that's for sure

When I think of the best QBs in CU program history, only Joel Klatt comes to mind as a playmaker who could also sling it a bit who’s also from Colorado. And yes, I know Hessler and Vogel are from Colorado as well. But, I think that Colorado has produced a serious deficiency at the QB position at this level to other P12 states.

 

[GuySmiley]

When I think of the best QBs in CU program history, only Joel Klatt comes to mind as a playmaker who could also sling it a bit who’s also from Colorado. And yes, I know Hessler and Vogel are from Colorado as well. But, I think that Colorado has produced a serious deficiency at the QB position at this level to other P12 states.

The guy I was thinking of was Ryan Clement... he had a decent career at Miami; he was from Mullen not DPL... I'd say he was the best Colorado bred QB . . . Klatt was good too, but came in much older...

Ryan Clement - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[manhattanbuff]

The guy I was thinking of was Ryan Clement... he had a decent career at Miami; he was from Mullen not DPL... I'd say he was the best Colorado bred QB . . . Klatt was good too, but came in much older...

Ryan Clement - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I know Ryan Clement. The post to which you replied was about Colorado QBs who did well at The University of Colorado.

It’s not a great track record for the state that we’ve only had one player at QB from the state be a regular starter for a top 25 team in Clement.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I know Ryan Clement. The post to which you replied was about Colorado QBs who did well at The University of Colorado.

It’s not a great track record for the state that we’ve only had one player at QB from the state be a regular starter for a top 25 team in Clement.

Who are the best CU players from Colorado, regardless of position? Daniel Graham, Joel Klatt, Ryan Miller, Nate Solder, JJ Billingsley, Phil Lindsay, Dave Logan, Sean Tufts. Any others of note I'm missing? Point is, most outstanding Colorado preps don't go to CU

 

[GuySmiley]

I know Ryan Clement. The post to which you replied was about Colorado QBs who did well at The University of Colorado.

It’s not a great track record for the state that we’ve only had one player at QB from the state be a regular starter for a top 25 team in Clement.

No, we're actually talking about "What programs could compete with only in-State talent," so it is a what if Colorado HS's stayed home and that was CU's team. Correct, Colorado has a poor track record with local QB talent...

The best guys on Defense are pretty thin: JJ Billingsly (you mentioned him) Evan Worthington, and Marques Harris??

 

[manhattanbuff]

Who are the best CU players from Colorado, regardless of position? Daniel Graham, Joel Klatt, Ryan Miller, Nate Solder, JJ Billingsley, Phil Lindsay, Dave Logan, Sean Tufts. Any others of note I'm missing? Point is, most outstanding Colorado preps don't go to CU

Tony Boselli.