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New Rivals rankings out

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Shane Dillon kept his 4th star but dropped out of the 250

About the only change I see. Maybe Norgard and Hennington got moved up but I can't remember their previous rankings.

Rivals
 
Do not see anything wrong with Dillon's new rating.

Me neither. He's right on that border between 4* and 3*. It sounds like a bigger deal than it is. The difference in evaluation between a 5.7 (3*) and a 5.8 (4*) is negligible even though the difference in perception is huge.
 
Tini why are you looking at this from the Michigan part of Rivals?
Was looking at Eric Magnasuns new ranking among others.

Not too big of a deal considering Landry Jones was a 5.7 3* out of high school, all depends on coaching.
 
I wanna make sure I back up my statement as i've been trying to do research to see if there's any solid variables you can count on when looking at the rankings. So far between most of the big ones, I haven't found ANY..........which is frustrating as *&^%! So you guys tell me if i'm wrong cause i'm ready to give up. The evaluation factors I thought were:

1) Solid seasonal numbers
2) Good highlight tape
3) Solid summer camp season
4) Consistent performances (everyone has bad games)
5) Face to face evaluations

Now when I compare listed players, those that are on and those that came off.......i'm not seeing consistency in any of these. Seems like most of the rankings come from:

1) Writers preferences
2) Which athletes sell subscriptions

Before I continue on this path of rant.........let me know if you want to see more. Cause I don't understand. In Shane's case, ok......he was on the bubble but his showing was decent at the Elite 11. How do you get pulled off of the list and others are put on there but haven't done anything new? I'm just sayin!
 
I wanna make sure I back up my statement as i've been trying to do research to see if there's any solid variables you can count on when looking at the rankings. So far between most of the big ones, I haven't found ANY..........which is frustrating as *&^%! So you guys tell me if i'm wrong cause i'm ready to give up. The evaluation factors I thought were:

1) Solid seasonal numbers
2) Good highlight tape
3) Solid summer camp season
4) Consistent performances (everyone has bad games)
5) Face to face evaluations

Now when I compare listed players, those that are on and those that came off.......i'm not seeing consistency in any of these. Seems like most of the rankings come from:

1) Writers preferences
2) Which athletes sell subscriptions

Before I continue on this path of rant.........let me know if you want to see more. Cause I don't understand. In Shane's case, ok......he was on the bubble but his showing was decent at the Elite 11. How do you get pulled off of the list and others are put on there but haven't done anything new? I'm just sayin!

So much of the ratings are based on film/performance/hype/offers/camps from the junior year. That's one of the biggest things that people need to keep in mind.

Next, it's subjective. Scouting is far from an exact science. The NFL draft is a great example. Some teams may have a 1st round grade on a guy that other teams put a 2nd or 3rd round grade on.

Finally, it is influenced by a consensus of opinion. If a prospect is "hot" and is pulling in a bunch of offers from prestigious programs (or commits to a top recruiting program), the services are likely to re-evaluate and adjust his rating up. Whether this has anything to do with making subscribers happy (the prestigious programs drive revenues) or if it's solely due to being sensible (a lot of big offers = big time prospect)... is up to debate. I personally think it's a mix but that "being sensible" is the overriding motivation.

I think the ratings systems are very good, actually. Despite tons of outliers, there is strong statistical correlation between the ratings and the success of the player or team. Due to limits on resources, the ratings are better at the top and they usually have a good handle on scouting the top 100-200 guys. Where it breaks down is when you're talking about the 3* prospects who haven't done all the camps and maybe play for a lesser known high school program or with 2* prospects that didn't develop until their senior year (Rodney Stewart is a great example of this). There are a ton of opportunities for programs to get great talent with midling grades if those programs focus on players that fit their system, finding guys who weren't hyped during their junior seasons, and reserve some scholarship offers for late developers rather than filling their classes by June.
 
Would be very surprised if Dillon doesn't go back up with a strong senior year. Committing to us definitely hurt his ranking.
 
Would be very surprised if Dillon doesn't go back up with a strong senior year. Committing to us definitely hurt his ranking.



If Andrew Luck transferred to CU he would drop to 3 stars and would no longer be considered the second comming.
 
So much of the ratings are based on film/performance/hype/offers/camps from the junior year. That's one of the biggest things that people need to keep in mind.

Next, it's subjective. Scouting is far from an exact science. The NFL draft is a great example. Some teams may have a 1st round grade on a guy that other teams put a 2nd or 3rd round grade on.

Finally, it is influenced by a consensus of opinion. If a prospect is "hot" and is pulling in a bunch of offers from prestigious programs (or commits to a top recruiting program), the services are likely to re-evaluate and adjust his rating up. Whether this has anything to do with making subscribers happy (the prestigious programs drive revenues) or if it's solely due to being sensible (a lot of big offers = big time prospect)... is up to debate. I personally think it's a mix but that "being sensible" is the overriding motivation.

I think the ratings systems are very good, actually. Despite tons of outliers, there is strong statistical correlation between the ratings and the success of the player or team. Due to limits on resources, the ratings are better at the top and they usually have a good handle on scouting the top 100-200 guys. Where it breaks down is when you're talking about the 3* prospects who haven't done all the camps and maybe play for a lesser known high school program or with 2* prospects that didn't develop until their senior year (Rodney Stewart is a great example of this). There are a ton of opportunities for programs to get great talent with midling grades if those programs focus on players that fit their system, finding guys who weren't hyped during their junior seasons, and reserve some scholarship offers for late developers rather than filling their classes by June.

Buffnik............I hear what you're saying. I know we need some type of benchmark. My husband and I are trying to start recruiting parent classes and this is one of the topics that's very hard to give advice on because it is so subjective.

A new story came out about a top recruit that flagged him as ineligible to play for his senior year because he will be 20 in a few weeks. He is a star in 3 sports. In the new rankings his stock hasn't dropped. Another one I saw drop off the list was Cope Fitzpatrick, but articles have raved about him during camp circuit. It's just confusing.......and seems to be more than limited resources. If I, as a female parent with a 9 to 5 can find out the same information as guys that are actually getting paid to do this..........something is wrong.
 
Buffnik............I hear what you're saying. I know we need some type of benchmark. My husband and I are trying to start recruiting parent classes and this is one of the topics that's very hard to give advice on because it is so subjective. A new story came out about a top recruit that flagged him as ineligible to play for his senior year because he will be 20 in a few weeks. He is a star in 3 sports. In the new rankings his stock hasn't dropped. Another one I saw drop off the list was Cope Fitzpatrick, but article have raved about him during camp circuit. It's just confusing.......and seems to be more than limited resources. If I, as a female parent with a 9 to 5 can find out the same information as guys that are actually getting paid to do this..........something is wrong.

What can I say except that I'm glad our coaches don't use the services to determine who to offer?

I think it's a nice resource for fans, since we'd otherwise be totally in the dark. If you want to advise other parents, the most important thing they can do is make sure that the high school coach is an advocate and makes game film available to recruiters (or to the parents if he doesn't want to be bothered with it himself). Beyond that, camp and make unofficial visits as resources allow. Also, the player should try to connect via social media with any D1 players he knows from camps and high school football to build that network and get a good word put in with college coaches through these back channels. Parents can do some networking, too, and should.
 
What can I say except that I'm glad our coaches don't use the services to determine who to offer?

I think it's a nice resource for fans, since we'd otherwise be totally in the dark. If you want to advise other parents, the most important thing they can do is make sure that the high school coach is an advocate and makes game film available to recruiters (or to the parents if he doesn't want to be bothered with it himself). Beyond that, camp and make unofficial visits as resources allow. Also, the player should try to connect via social media with any D1 players he knows from camps and high school football to build that network and get a good word put in with college coaches through these back channels. Parents can do some networking, too, and should.

Good stuff! Thanks!
 
Anybody who saw "The year of the Quarterback" on ESPN knows how special a kid Dillon is. Here's a guy who finished 7th out of the top 24 high school quarterbacks in the country and he gets his ranking dropped? Moronic. Like these guys know more than Trent Dilfer and the rest of the coaches that put on the Elite 11? I'd be embarassed for them if I really cared.
 
Everyone keeps bringing up how great Dillon was at the Elite 11 but isin't that like a hyping a player as a first round pick because they did well at the combine? Al Davis would be proud.
 
Everyone keeps bringing up how great Dillon was at the Elite 11 but isin't that like a hyping a player as a first round pick because they did well at the combine? Al Davis would be proud.
**** you. You're not understanding the logic. He was named the #7 QB at the Elite 11 and was ranked as the #7 pro-style QB in the previous rankings and the people at the Elite 11 know QBs much better than some guy sitting behind his desk in California. The fact that he was named the #7 overall QB at the Elite 11 but dropped down to the #13 pro-style QB in the rankings is a bit odd. And their reasoning for his stock dropping wasn't very sound either:

Dillon looked good at the Elite 11 at times but he doesn't have one of the stronger arms and he dips the ball on his release so he needs mechanical adjustments. There are other pro-style quarterbacks that have emerged and improved their stock while his has dipped.
http://footballrecruiting.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1246635

He's a prospect, not a ****ing pro QB. Isn't that what the rankings are for? Projecting their success in college? And it was also reported that Dillon had one of the stronger arms at the Elite 11, especially from one knee.
 
Good post, tini. There was nothing to evaluate Dillon on between the last ratings and the new one besides that Elite 11 competition. I could understand Rivals moving other guys up based on recent performances, but nothing they had explains a move from a 5.8 to a 5.7 rating.
 
Good post, tini. There was nothing to evaluate Dillon on between the last ratings and the new one besides that Elite 11 competition. I could understand Rivals moving other guys up based on recent performances, but nothing they had explains a move from a 5.8 to a 5.7 rating.
:nod:

I understand the the reason for him being out of the top 250 because of that, but just because he didn't go to every QB camp and camp at USC or what have you doesn't mean he should drop from a 5.8 4* to a 5.7 3*. Looks better when potential recruits look at his ranking but I'll trust QBs who have played in the pros and not some person sucking USC off while he sits behind his desk.
 
I am guessing Rivals just expected a bit more than what they saw at the Elite 11 camp. Is it really that hard to believe? Hell, three of the top eight pro style QBs are committed to BYU, TCU, and Pitt respectively. Is Rivals pandering to those large subscriber bases with those rankings?
 
I am guessing Rivals just expected a bit more than what they saw at the Elite 11 camp. Is it really that hard to believe? Hell, three of the top eight pro style QBs are committed to BYU, TCU, and Pitt respectively. Is Rivals pandering to those large subscriber bases with those rankings?

Yes. Just as no bad officiating call has ever been made in CU's favor.

Where do you think you are, son? :lol:
 
Yes. Just as no bad officiating call has ever been made in CU's favor.

Where do you think you are, son? :lol:

:lol:

When you look at the list overall, I think it has to give you some confidence in Rip Scherer more than anything. We only offered a select number of pro-style QBs (six) and every one of them is ranked in the top 13. And we either the first to offer or one of the first teams to offer a few of those guys.
 
I am guessing Rivals just expected a bit more than what they saw at the Elite 11 camp. Is it really that hard to believe? Hell, three of the top eight pro style QBs are committed to BYU, TCU, and Pitt respectively. Is Rivals pandering to those large subscriber bases with those rankings?

Agreed.
 
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