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2017 Football Advanced Stats & Analysis thread

J.R. Ewing said:
According to S&P+ we're the 87th best team in the country, one spot behind the University of Buffalo. We have the 77th offense, the 82nd Defense, and 21st STs (go figure).

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-colorado-advanced-statistical-profile
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Don't really have the energy to look at the stats this week. We are what we are at this point. Defense could show more improvement with Javier coming back (he played on Saturday), but I'm befuddled by the offense to the point of throwing my hands up and rooting for Phil to break one.
 
https://theathletic.com/137093/2017/10/25/sec-football-coach-turnover/

Got a shout out for being the most average team in the nation!!

I’m a lifelong BYU (1-7) and Alabama (8-0) fan. With so many games for either team that aren’t competitive, I am struggling to enjoy watching football. Only the Alabama-LSU game next week gets me a little excited for either team’s schedule between now and the Iron Bowl. Is there anything that can help me find some passion for college football over the next month?
Jared Abrams, Preston, Idaho


Sounds like you need to find some middle ground. I recommend you adopt Colorado, which, according to Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings, is the most average team in all of FBS — 65th out of 130.
The Buffs are three-point home favorites against Cal this week, which means it’s essentially a toss-up. It should be a lot more fun than watching your 1-7 Cougars face 1-7 San Jose State, or Alabama play “idle.”
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I thought he would drop after an inefficient near 100 yards last week, but I guess accounting for 60% of your team's offense counts for something in this metric that I don't understand:

https://theathletic.com/138058/2017...-the-r-stands-for-royce-reliable-and-records/
Here are the top 45 players in FBS running back efficiency entering Week 9 (minimum 82 carries):
RankNameSchoolRating
1Bryce LoveStanford8.37
2Saquon BarkleyPenn State7.60
3Josh AdamsNotre Dame7.33
4Rashaad PennySan Diego State7.30
5Royce FreemanOregon7.08
6Damien HarrisAlabama7.07
7Jonathan TaylorWisconsin6.98
8Phillip LindsayColorado6.92
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 
Now #74 in S&P. Our best win so far? CSU.

DateOpponentOpp. S&P+ RkScoreW-LWin
Expectancy		Adj. Scoring
Margin		Percentile
Performance		Off.
Percentile		Def.
Percentile
1-Sepvs. Colorado State3817-3W94%13.879%26%87%
9-SepTexas State11237-3W100%31.491%54%96%
16-SepNorthern ColoradoN/A41-21W97%16.879%89%58%
23-SepWashington410-37L1%-22.016%21%31%
30-Sepat UCLA6423-27L18%-8.531%36%45%
7-OctArizona3042-45L32%-4.143%79%15%
14-Octat Oregon State11836-33W41%-2.144%69%29%
21-Octat Washington State230-28L0%-26.312%9%38%
28-OctCalifornia10144-28W99%22.685%89%54%
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Best remaining chance for a win? ASU. Weird seeing USC & Utah basically having the same shot. Predicts us to have a 79% chance of making a bowl game record of 6-6 or better. So, not winning any of these last three games would have to be considered a real failure by all measures and a disappointment considering this team's past performance.

DateOpponentOpp. S&P+ RkWin
Probability		Proj.
W-L		Proj.
Margin		Proj.
Score		Cumulative
Proj. Wins
4-Novat Arizona State9351%W0.430.1 - 29.85.51
11-NovUSC2034%L-7.126.7 - 33.85.85
25-Novat Utah5135%L-6.524.5 - 31.16.20
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Rushing attack is a horror show outside of Lindsay.
Passing defense is creeping up.
Special teams is #14. What an improvement that area has been.
 
Fun stat of the day. We fell from 18th to 91st in S&P+. Over the past 3 years going back to the '14 season, only 2 other teams had fallen more than that in one year. North Texas fell 74 spots from '13 to '14, and Bowling Green fell 86 spots from '15 to '16.
 
J.R. Ewing said:
S&P+ projects CU at 89 based on 5 year recruiting rankings, returns production, and recent history. Ouch.

https://www.allbuffs.com/threads/2017-football-advanced-stats-analysis-thread.127990/page-3
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Makes sense based on the numbers. Although having McMillan will drastically soften the blow of losing Lindsay and I don't think anyone is expecting a huge dropoff from Bobo, Fields and Ross to Winfree, Shenault, Ento and Nixon. Mostly comes down to how much the offensive line can improve because their number in the run and pass game were downright awful last year.
 
onealcd said:
Makes sense based on the numbers. Although having McMillan will drastically soften the blow of losing Lindsay and I don't think anyone is expecting a huge dropoff from Bobo, Fields and Ross to Winfree, Shenault, Ento and Nixon. Mostly comes down to how much the offensive line can improve because their number in the run and pass game were downright awful last year.
Click to expand...
Yep. I get what's behind the outside perspective. But the 2018 team simply looks a lot better to me than the 2017 team. And I see a Pac-12 that lost a lot of great or veteran QBs while we have a returning starter.
 
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