No more divisions
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2023 Season Record Prediction
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
No more divisions
There is for scheduling
Your post made it sound like you were saying things could change w/r/t the outcome of the South division, that's all
SeanMSan
Well-Known Member
That SC player used their helmet to uppercut Rising, but obviously the announcers know who will be cutting that bonus check, so no foul there…but LOOK at that OBVIOUS hold…
College teams on the upswing often deliver results a year earlier than most folks realistically expect.
I think a realistic expectation for this year is 4-5 wins, but given the truism above, my prediction is 7 (I'd say 6.5, but I'm an optimist).
I think we will see one upset game, pick one: USC, Oregon, TCU, Utah (I want USC to be this upset so badly...)
I think CSU, Stanford and the nubs go in the "surprised if we lose" bin,
and then we win 50% of the remaining 5 - within that 5 I expect to lose one we "should" have won, and win one we "should" have lost.
% chance of making P12 championship game is 5%, and honestly, if it does happen it will say more about how bad the other teams are rather than how good the buffs are (this year).
Oh, and I have enough $ on the win total over (3.5 and 4) that bowl game travel costs will be covered by the payoff.
I think a realistic expectation for this year is 4-5 wins, but given the truism above, my prediction is 7 (I'd say 6.5, but I'm an optimist).
I think we will see one upset game, pick one: USC, Oregon, TCU, Utah (I want USC to be this upset so badly...)
I think CSU, Stanford and the nubs go in the "surprised if we lose" bin,
and then we win 50% of the remaining 5 - within that 5 I expect to lose one we "should" have won, and win one we "should" have lost.
% chance of making P12 championship game is 5%, and honestly, if it does happen it will say more about how bad the other teams are rather than how good the buffs are (this year).
Oh, and I have enough $ on the win total over (3.5 and 4) that bowl game travel costs will be covered by the payoff.
How are you quantifying your first sentence?
he did his research
How? Did he Google “college football teams on the upswing through history” and then look at the records? And then, even if you did that, how would you determine that they beat their upswing prediction by a year?
The metric you’re looking for is median upswing, not wins/upswing
I have the same impression. Conventional wisdom is based on how a team did the previous season. People also tend to focus on upperclassmen returning starters. Therefore, teams seem to bust through and rise a year ahead of when it's expected. It's expected within conventional wisdom after the team sent notice and established itself.
Yes, it's nothing more than teams needing to prove it before getting the respect and therefore higher expectations.
However, in CU's case for 2023, there are some people who are on Colorado as a legitimate top 25 caliber team this year. RJ Young from Fox Sports is one who has routinely included CU in his preseason top 25. Of course, you'll never get that from any of the prominent analysts and media members as their credibility relies on them not really making many, if any, bold predictions.
I appreciate you explaining your impression. My question was more if there is actually any evidence that backs that up, or how someone would even quantify that.
It seems like a flaw in the logic to just look at teams that had a better than expected season and reach the conclusion that they broke through a year early, and that somehow signifies a trend across college football as a whole. What about all the teams around the country that don’t?
Maybe I’m misunderstanding the original point?
I think you got it right, but mostly being a dick about it.
Kind of.
A lot of pundits will say things like "this team is building towards being a contender in ____," and then what often happens is that they overachieve in ___ minus one.
I think there's a lot of "the talent is in the pipeline, and it will take a year or two to work," but the thing is, talent often separates itself earlier than expected - and college football is more about talent on the field than most coaches and pundits want to admit.
So, I see a lot of folks saying CU will struggle to get to .500 this year, but assuming it all goes to plan, they'll compete for the conference championship (not "win" it, but "compete" for it) in 2024.
I think that competing for the conference championship is probably a step too far this year, but I think they're going to demolish the "struggle to get to .500" prediction.
I suppose one could "quantify it" by looking at over/under win totals from the betting houses. I'm not going to do the work, but my impression is that teams trend up faster than prediction markets anticipate, and they also trend down faster than anticipated.
At least 247 recognizes that all the attrition from last year was a good thing. I saw one publication talk about Heisman odds and while Shedeur wasn't included, Travis Hunter was tied for the best odds by a "defensive player". In the explanation the writer said (paraphrasing), "Colorado is expected to be dreadfully bad, however, so it's hard to see a player from a 2-3 win team winning the award".
Pretty sure the "expected to be dreadfully bad" perception is just coming from the season win totals out of Vegas.
Pretty sure the "expected to be dreadfully bad" perception is just coming from the season win totals out of Vegas.
If Penix has another season like last season and UW manages to keep losses at 1 or zero he could be in the heisman picture.
Penix, last year:
#2 in nation 4641 PYds
#1 357 PYpg,
#1 Total Off 364 Ypg
UW, last year:
#2 Total off 515 Ypg
#1 Passing Off 369 Ypg
#1 3rd down conv .568%
#5 1st Down Off 354
#8 Red Zone .917%
Penix did lose his favorite WR target. Caleb Williams at USC was also right there with Penix on some of the stats
This was the article I read. Penix is 4th behind Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Quinn Ewers
2024 Heisman Trophy Odds: Five Quarterbacks to Watch
While bettors wait for the 2024 Heisman odds market to post, here's an early look at some of the likely preseason favorites.
sports.betmgm.com
There is one Major media outlet that is projecting the following:
CU undefeated and wins the National Championship
Shadeur Sander wins the Heisman Trophy (stats below)
When I say major media outlet, I am referring to me
CU undefeated and wins the National Championship
Shadeur Sander wins the Heisman Trophy (stats below)
48 TD's, 2 Int's
4870 Yards passing
370 PYpg
When I say major media outlet, I am referring to me
SeanMSan
Well-Known Member
JFC - isn’t Jayden Daniels 35 now?! Him, Bo Nix, DTR, and Adrian Martinez have like 60 years of experience between them…the latter two were at least found out and can no longer play!This was the article I read. Penix is 4th behind Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Quinn Ewers
2024 Heisman Trophy Odds: Five Quarterbacks to Watch
While bettors wait for the 2024 Heisman odds market to post, here's an early look at some of the likely preseason favorites.
This will be Penix' 6th season as well.
Print it!