CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

[hawg1]

What are they based on, though? Hard to imagine guys like Mandel and Feldman not using those projections if they were based on something reputable or concrete.

I understand their consulting business to include media rights expertise. Often quoted. Doesn’t make them right, though.

 

[hawg1]

It will be better, and I'd guess in the neighborhood of $7-10M better. Listen to that podcast, they don't say that specifically about the B12 and low $20M. They're just making guesses based on the existing 8 leftover B12 schools, and not what the geographic locations for new schools factoring in would be. Again, the consensus has the new B12 sans OUT to be north of $30M. We are talked about in the $22-25M range sans USC/UCLA. Our problem is there are zero schools or group of schools we can add west of the rockies that bump that up.

Someones data rework from Navigate

Thanks. I had not see this. B12 looks high relative to others. Who knows?

 

[hawg1]

The ESPN shills? Yeah, no reason at all for them craft a narrative.

They don’t work for ESPN.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

You keep saying this and ignore what 99% of analysts and sports people are saying. Its' an argument that UO & UW are the best two brands left. I'd argue as a whole and not just football centric - the Kansas Jayhawks are the biggest brand. But even if by whatever twisted metric inside of your head you are using for logic, the new B12 from top to bottom is a better and deeper conference, playing in geographic locations that care about their college football and basketball significantly more than they do west of the rockies. Thats just a fact.

KU is a terrible brand in the only thing that matters, possibly the worst brand in the country outside of Rutgers (maybe the luckiest program of all time). If MBB mattered even slightly, they'd be in the B1G or SEC by now.

This guy has followed realignment in multiple sports at different levels, he knows the finances of schools and conferences, and he goes after that $$$ information via foia request. It's not clear cut

 

[J.R. Ewing]

It is pretty weird to me that such a wealthy area doesn't have a top notch school in close vicinity. It seems like other regions throughout the country that are similar to the Denver/Front Range area have a local school that makes the decision between staying home and going out of state for a top tier education pretty difficult.

I could be incorrectly assuming that funding for a school impacts its academic prestige but this discussion of conference alignment and its impact on people's perception of the academics of universities has me wondering what the true drivers are that boost academic prestige over time. It doesn't seem like it is a very fluid landscape.

After some cursory research it looks like the thing most correlated with a large bump in academic rankings is a large decrease in acceptance rate. There haven't been many big movers over the last 25 years but Stanford, USC, Texas, UChicago, and WUSTL stand out. I find this interesting as Stanford, USC, and Texas have all had extremely successful football programs within that time period and anecdotally, I received a ton of mail in high school from USC, UChicago, and WUSTL. It seems that marketing is important for application rates and football success is a large part of that. Jack Kroll be damned.

Want a smaller acceptance rate? Get more applicants. Ways to do that? Make your school more visible by being relevant at athletics. If frickin knuckle dragging Alabama can increase out of state applicants, we can too.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

The ESPN shills? Yeah, no reason at all for them craft a narrative.

Uhhh Mandel has worked for SI, Fox and now The Athletic and Feldman was suspended by ESPN a long time ago, and now works for Fox and The Athletic.

Take a lap, but make me a sandwich before you do, new guy

 

[Not Sure]

It is pretty weird to me that such a wealthy area doesn't have a top notch school in close vicinity. It seems like other regions throughout the country that are similar to the Denver/Front Range area have a local school that makes the decision between staying home and going out of state for a top tier education pretty difficult.

Colorado does have this. In fact, there are three schools that meet this definition - Mines, DU and CC. Only Mines is public and it has a narrow academic focus. Schools like Harvard and Stanford will always attract from all over, but those three schools are top 100 schools nationwide and do offer the opportunity to get a highly rated education locally. CU is a middle of the road large public University. It’s fine for a lot of things, but it’s far from elite.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

You can call Wilner a Pac 12 schill, but...

 

[iWillDuYu]

KU is a terrible brand in the only thing that matters, possibly the worst brand in the country outside of Rutgers (maybe the luckiest program of all time). If MBB mattered even slightly, they'd be in the B1G or SEC by now.

This guy has followed realignment in multiple sports at different levels, he knows the finances of schools and conferences, and he goes after that $$$ information via foia request. It's not clear cut

Well, wrong. They've been an absolute sh1t program the last 12 years. That Jayhawk is much more recognizable than any other brand in the PAC or B12. You can say they suck at football, you're right. The point wasn't whether they can get in the B1G or not, it was who are the best brands in the LPAC and LB12. We may not want to admit it, but their brand is huge, ESPN loves them and puts them on prime TV once or twice a week. They will only get bigger if they can somehow fix football. We don't exactly have much to crow about either.

I'll take numbers from Navigate over anyone else. I know people just want to refuse to accept it, but we will be behind B12 numbers, only question is by how much. But hey, maybe our academic friends in Cal and Stanford can get us a pay bump in our next contract! We need to follow the money, and where we can rebuild our football, and get more exposure. That's playing east of the Rockies

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Well, wrong. They've been an absolute sh1t program the last 12 years. That Jayhawk is much more recognizable than any other brand in the PAC or B12. You can say they suck at football, you're right. The point wasn't whether they can get in the B1G or not, it was who are the best brands in the LPAC and LB12. We may not want to admit it, but their brand is huge, ESPN loves them and puts them on prime TV once or twice a week. They will only get bigger if they can somehow fix football. We don't exactly have much to crow about either.

I'll take numbers from Navigate over anyone else. I know people just want to refuse to accept it, but we will be behind B12 numbers, only question is by how much. But hey, maybe our academic friends in Cal and Stanford can get us a pay bump in our next contract! We need to follow the money, and where we can rebuild our football, and get more exposure. That's playing east of the Rockies

Kansas is in a small market with an irrelevant football program that nobody watches. Again, basketball does. not. matter. Not even a little bit.

 

[Preston Slaughter]

Colorado does have this. In fact, there are three schools that meet this definition - Mines, DU and CC. Only Mines is public and it has a narrow academic focus. Schools like Harvard and Stanford will always attract from all over, but those three schools are top 100 schools nationwide and do offer the opportunity to get a highly rated education locally. CU is a middle of the road large public University. It’s fine for a lot of things, but it’s far from elite.

I actually went to Mines as a local kid but I knew I wanted to be an engineer. I discounted them because, as you said, "they have a narrow academic focus" and don't appeal to the majority of prospective college applicants.

 

[iWillDuYu]

You can call Wilner a Pac 12 schill, but...

Yes, he positioned his argument well in that tweet. P12 Wilner absolutely doesn't want that to be true.

 

[Not Sure]

So people who shill for the P12 are not to be trusted, but those who shill for the B12 are?

 

[Goose]

Kansas is in a small market with an irrelevant football program that nobody watches. Again, basketball does. not. matter. Not even a little bit.

I saw someone (maybe Wilner? God only knows) say that football is 85% of the decision making. Honestly, he's probably understating that by at least 10%.

 

[iWillDuYu]

Kansas is in a small market with an irrelevant football program that nobody watches. Again, basketball does. not. matter. Not even a little bit.

Again, you're wrong. But i'm not here to argue over Kansas. But you just maintain your P12 biased logic, and your narrow view on the landscape today - it's gotten us so far since we left. Have a good day my friend

 

[iWillDuYu]

So people who shill for the P12 are not to be trusted, but those who shill for the B12 are?

That guy is an Alabama fan lol. Navigate doesn't shill for anyone either.

 

[onealcd]

The consensus has been north of $30M for the new B12. Not sure where they're getting that idea. Even if money is equal, I want us in the B12 where they are playing geographically where people care about football and basketball. This is also why the B12 will get more money than us. What has being in a better academic conference gotten us? Absolutely nowhere, in fact we're kinda lost right now. Our sports exposure has suffered greatly ever since joining the PAC. Our academics won't suffer making a move to a conference that has Baylor, Kansas, IAST, BYU, TCU. Being in a conference with Stanford and Cal have done absolutely nothing for us but lose money and exposure. The best thing for our football program, and hence our school, is to move it to where people care about football and basketball. Period. Build ourselves back up the nest 7-10 years there and see where the chips land when the ACC GOR expires and SEC/B1G is on the hunt to wrap up this P2 breakaway

That was never the consensus, when it happened the rumor was less than 20 million per year.

 

[GB8]

What CU should be focused on is making itself as attractive as possible to the B1G.

That's mostly about winning football and Folsom improvements.

But I'd put everything on the table in a strategic plan to achieve that goal.

Academic plan looking for strategic partnerships with B1G members while focusing on improving the metrics they care about.

Athletic plan that improves or adds non-football sports they care about. If hockey could put us over the top vs other similar schools, find a way to make it happen. Or whatever moves the needle that little bit.

Marketing to increase exposure in B1G country, attract more students from their footprint and build Buff Club chapters in their backyard.

The future of the university is in the balance on this.

Can we buy DU's hockey team?

One thing that drives me crazy in all of this is how the premiere academic institutions of the Western US now need to grovel to some admins in the dust bowl and rust belt. I recognize it is the economic reality of the athletics business and the LA schools sold all of us out, but that YouTube video where the B1G guys carved up the Pac schools like trading cards based on how much value they brought to Midwesterners was incredibly painful to watch. Football PLUS TV do have that power today in this moment, but hard to see that as sustainable with long term demographic and economic changes....

 

[hokiehead]

I saw someone (maybe Wilner? God only knows) say that football is 85% of the decision making. Honestly, he's probably understating that by at least 10%.

no question football in king in this, but do you really think it's 95% though?

the NCAA men's basketball tourney brings in $1b in annual revenue. that's not insignificant wrt the football numbers getting thrown around.

if basketball really matters "not a bit" in this discussion, that implies, for example, that Duke has virtually no hope of landing a P2 spot. do we really believe that?

 

[leftybuff]

That guy is an Alabama fan lol. Navigate doesn't shill for anyone either.

He could be an Auburn fan pretending to be a Bama fan....

 

[241Volcanos]

Again, you're wrong. But i'm not here to argue over Kansas. But you just maintain your P12 biased logic, and your narrow view on the landscape today - it's gotten us so far since we left. Have a good day my friend

We sitting in here -we’re supposed to be a franchise brand, and we in here talking about Kansas? I mean, listen, we talking about Kansas. Not a brand. Not a brand. We talking about Kansas..

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I saw someone (maybe Wilner? God only knows) say that football is 85% of the decision making. Honestly, he's probably understating that by at least 10%.

I think football accounts for 85% of TV money, but yeah, I'm pretty sure that equates to at least 95% of the actual decision making power.

 

[Goose]

no question football in king in this, but do you really think it's 95% though?

the NCAA men's basketball tourney brings in $1b in annual revenue. that's not insignificant wrt the football numbers getting thrown around.

if basketball really matters "not a bit" in this discussion, that implies, for example, that Duke has virtually no hope of landing a P2 spot. do we really believe that?

100%.

Football is driving the show. Basketball makes $1b in revenue, but that's all for the NCAA. NCAA isn't involved in realignment. They're screwed. Football is the big money driver. Football gets the TV ratings. The #1 game in college hoops last year was Duke - UNC in Coach K's last home game. It would have been the 56th best football game. College hoops' second best game pulled in the same ratings as Michigan - Rutgers in week 4.

Football is at least 95%. The other 5% is a mash up of hoops, women's hoops, Olympic sports and random things that presidents of universities care about.

 

[Goose]

I think football accounts for 85% of TV money, but yeah, I'm pretty sure that equates to at least 95% of the actual decision making power.

That makes sense that it's 85% of money. Honestly, thought it was higher than that.

 

[H.E. Pennypacker]

Sex is totally off of the menu then, huh? Damn.

He informed everyone in the vacation thread that she got her period. I'm sure Hank will keep us up to date on when that is done.

 

[hokiehead]

100%.

Football is driving the show. Basketball makes $1b in revenue, but that's all for the NCAA. NCAA isn't involved in realignment. They're screwed. Football is the big money driver. Football gets the TV ratings. The #1 game in college hoops last year was Duke - UNC in Coach K's last home game. It would have been the 56th best football game. College hoops' second best game pulled in the same ratings as Michigan - Rutgers in week 4.

Football is at least 95%. The other 5% is a mash up of hoops, women's hoops, Olympic sports and random things that presidents of universities care about.

ok, yeah. I'm assuming the NCAA is out of the picture in the short term and that revenue comes back to the conferences.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Again, you're wrong. But i'm not here to argue over Kansas. But you just maintain your P12 biased logic, and your narrow view on the landscape today - it's gotten us so far since we left. Have a good day my friend

Again, I have been vocal about my desire for CU to move to the Big 12, I'm simply saying there are a very wide range of projections being thrown around about the various media deals. And I'm not wrong. The last two National Championship basketball programs and two of the biggest hoops brands in the country (KU is possibly the top hoops brand) reside in the Big 12 and aren't even in the discussion as a potential target for the big boy conferences. Why? Because basketball doesn't drive the TV money. Same with Arizona and Gonzaga.

no question football in king in this, but do you really think it's 95% though?

the NCAA men's basketball tourney brings in $1b in annual revenue. that's not insignificant wrt the football numbers getting thrown around.

if basketball really matters "not a bit" in this discussion, that implies, for example, that Duke has virtually no hope of landing a P2 spot. do we really believe that?

The TV revenue has been said to be 85/15 split, so when it comes to decision making, it's easily 95/5 or even 100/0 in favor of football driving the boat. No conference is making a decision to bring in a school because of their basketball program. I think there are a handful of schools where the hoops program can tip the scales in the event of a tie.

 

[torero]

Again, I have been vocal about my desire for CU to move to the Big 12, I'm simply saying there are a very wide range of projections being thrown around about the various media deals. And I'm not wrong. The last two National Championship basketball programs and two of the biggest hoops brands in the country (KU is possibly the top hoops brand) reside in the Big 12 and aren't even in the discussion as a potential target for the big boy conferences. Why? Because basketball doesn't drive the TV money. Same with Arizona and Gonzaga.

The TV revenue has been said to be 85/15 split, so when it comes to decision making, it's easily 95/5 or even 100/0 in favor of football driving the boat. No conference is making a decision to bring in a school because of their basketball program. I think there are a handful of schools where the hoops program can tip the scales in the event of a tie.

The Big East brings schools in because of their basketball programs. The Big East doesn't have football. If the Big XII were to die, Kansas would probably go independent in football and move to the Big East. Duke would probably do the same thing if the ACC were to implode. Big East has a great TV deal for a basketball only conference, it's laughable in comparison to the TV numbers that the football conferences bring in. First article I read said $4.6 million per year per school.

 

[Hank]

Really digging that Spanish siesta, huh?

I don't need no stinking fiesta.

My preference here would be to just shift the schedule a couple of hours based on sunset. In the US, I normally go to bed around 11pm and wake up at 6:30am. Here (and on vacation), I would rather go to bed at 1am and wake up at 8:30am.

 

[PAHIBuff]

…Our administration does though. They are academic jock sniffers

Some of the Admins, and some Allbuffers, seem to think that because you're in the PAC you're automatically drinking Stags Leap and solving the world's (...er, the "planet's") weighty problems, and conversely if you're in the B12 you automatically have cow crap on your shoes and and you're chewing on a wooden matchstick. This is partly the result of CU not having much of an identity of its own. Newcomers to Colorado in the last 15 years or so don't understand how little the state itself, and many of the state's long term lifers, identifies with CU and how little it gives it a second thought.

We're just talking about sports leagues here folks. Sports leagues and nothing more. I'd suggest that the real semi-crisis/issue for CU football is NIL and not conference placement. Texas Tech NIL is going to pay 95 guys $25,000 each. That's a functional used car and a heck of a lot of pizza and beer......and Tech isn't pulling in a lot of Cherry Creek HS types for whom $25,000 is small potatoes. Without some meaningful NIL, CU's recruiting becomes a greater uphill battle IMO.