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CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

They are thinking the P12 deal still looks OK.
But if there is nothing left of the PAC but OSU and WSU, even that ****ty deal has to be gone. Espically if rumors that the deal hinges on 2 specific members being part of it. P5 becomes the P4.
 
adding those four teams, coupled with USC and UCLA makes that a very solid western pod for the B1G. It’s a good move for them. It also pretty much forces the B12 to take all four corner schools. Hilarity in Utah ensues.
 
Nobody in the BIG12 really cares much for Utah. It's pretty funny.
Bah. They’d be a good addition and if the B12 is thinking clearly, they’ll see it, too. BYU will put up a stink, but they’re brand new members too. OTOH, if it’s a choice between Utah and, oh say Tulane, well, then it sucks to be Utah.
 
So, the latest check of how the winds are blowing:

OU, UW, Cal & Stanford all counting on a B1G life raft & the B1G is evaluating

UA expected to announce for the Big 12

Big 12 might or might not want to expand beyond 14

I don't see taking all 5 from the Pac-9 if the B1G takes 4. I think that there's interest in having flexibility in the near future after some G5s have invested & shown results along with having room if the ACC breaks. I "think" 16 is the max number right now unless something dramatic happens with the ACC based on whatever FSU is doing.

If this comes to fruition, games in Corvallis and Pullman this season are gonna be lit!
 
From a business standpoint, I don't see the 4 going to B1G. Even at a partial share, the money has to come from somewhere, and no existing team is going to agree to lower their payment by even $1 for the 4 except maybe UCLA since they are still on the hook to cal for some money which may end up a wash if cal gets into B1G.

So the networks would need to pay more. Most notably Fox, which already has the B1G's premiere games locked up. Cbs? Nbc? Maybe more streaming in peacock.

I'm sure the 4(or 2) probably went to the B1G as a group and said take us! We will come over for almost anything! But the money still needs to be gotten from somewhere. Sell a 4th tier? Who is going to pay for that? Apple? Lol.

Maybe ESPN says, B12...we give you more money to secure them, but I doubt it. Fox can probably get them alot cheaper in the B12 as well. Fox would be paying more for them to play in the B1G than they can have them in the B12? That makes no sense for them.

The networks still and do hold all the cards here. At best the conferences can ask for more money, but the networks will decide where teams go ultimately. What real benefit does any network have with paying any of these 4 even a partial share in the B1G when they can bide their time and get them and their inventory cheaper.

If the best the PAC 9 could get is 20m on apple, they probably aren't getting anymore from the networks by dropping asu, Utah, OSU and wsu and going to the B1G. Someone has to pay them and it ain't gonna be the current conference members.
 
Bah. They’d be a good addition and if the B12 is thinking clearly, they’ll see it, too. BYU will put up a stink, but they’re brand new members too. OTOH, if it’s a choice between Utah and, oh say Tulane, well, then it sucks to be Utah.
I can see both arguments if Arizona makes 14.

1. With the Big 12 having the only Power Conference schools remaining in AZ & UT, ASU & Utah don't add much value. Maybe should just stay at 14. Also, if we did go to 16 now we need to consider that while they are bigger brands today, maybe UConn & SDSU have much higher future potential while also making our conference's hoops strength so high that a new football D1 power league and/or playoff couldn't leave us out because we'd have so much NCAA bball tourney & hoops programming leverage with the media companies.

2. Fan engagement is what drives things. These are 2 good P5 football programs that have had their great moments, are in large & growing metros, have very large enrollment & alumni numbers, would 2 conference rivalries that media partners would love, and give ESPN the western time zone inventory it needs with Fox owning USC, UCLA, UW, UO and also maybe Cal & Stanford.
 
From a business standpoint, I don't see the 4 going to B1G. Even at a partial share, the money has to come from somewhere, and no existing team is going to agree to lower their payment by even $1 for the 4 except maybe UCLA since they are still on the hook to cal for some money which may end up a wash if cal gets into B1G.

So the networks would need to pay more. Most notably Fox, which already has the B1G's premiere games locked up. Cbs? Nbc? Maybe more streaming in peacock.

I'm sure the 4(or 2) probably went to the B1G as a group and said take us! We will come over for almost anything! But the money still needs to be gotten from somewhere. Sell a 4th tier? Who is going to pay for that? Apple? Lol.

Maybe ESPN says, B12...we give you more money to secure them, but I doubt it. Fox can probably get them alot cheaper in the B12 as well. Fox would be paying more for them to play in the B1G than they can have them in the B12? That makes no sense for them.

The networks still and do hold all the cards here. At best the conferences can ask for more money, but the networks will decide where teams go ultimately. What real benefit does any network have with paying any of these 4 even a partial share in the B1G when they can bide their time and get them and their inventory cheaper.

If the best the PAC 9 could get is 20m on apple, they probably aren't getting anymore from the networks by dropping asu, Utah, OSU and wsu and going to the B1G. Someone has to pay them and it ain't gonna be the current conference members.
This is part I cant get my head around.
 

Where is all this money going to come from to pay for these moves? The networks are cash strapped and they are going to pay more money when they already hold their rights? Also, Oregon and Washington are worth $20 million in the P12 but are worth $70 million now that they are going to be playing Iowa and Illinois?
 
Possible dominoes:

B1G to 20 through UW, UO, Cal & Furd. Looking at ACC + ND to finish at 24. Targets believed to be UVA, UNC and Miami.

SEC will not want to be at 16 with the B1G at 24. I think they're going to have trouble seeing value after their first 4 selections out of the ACC. Do they look at Big 12 properties?
 
Wish I could have seen the look on those school presidents faces when he made the presentation. Unless they fire him I Can't imagine any of them stay on.

 
Possible dominoes:

B1G to 20 through UW, UO, Cal & Furd. Looking at ACC + ND to finish at 24. Targets believed to be UVA, UNC and Miami.

SEC will not want to be at 16 with the B1G at 24. I think they're going to have trouble seeing value after their first 4 selections out of the ACC. Do they look at Big 12 properties?
Who would be the #1 target out of the Big12 in that scenario?
 
I realize Utah is a decent draw, but I'm struggling to see why they would be an add over 14 with BYU already doing the Utah thing.

I'm also not seeing why the B1G would add stanford AND cal in addition to Oregon and UW.

Through the looking glass.
If the take UO and UW and stick Cal with a $500 million stadium bill the CA legislators will get involved.

Almost better for B10 to let UO/UW go to B12 so they can have plausible deniability that they killed the P12
 
Big gets bigger than 16 and everyone will be suing everyone. And Congress. Watch. And doj.

This is about to go from awful to hilariously expensive and discoverable awful.

Sec is done for now and will wait for their chance to grab the acc teams it wants. Later.

If the big adds anyone the **** is going to hit the fan and the more they add the uglier it will be.

in about 6 months things are going to be so seriously ****ed up that no one outside the sec will have any confidence in what conference they will end up in and no one will have any idea who is in charge or has authority to fix things.
 
Who would be the #1 target out of the Big12 in that scenario?
Kansas. Improves their hoops profile and reunites them with Missouri and provides cannon fodder for the rest of the football teams who are running out of patsies.
 
Big gets bigger than 16 and everyone will be suing everyone. And Congress. Watch. And doj.
Is that the Merrick Garland Biden DOJ?

I love the monikers that K McCarthy and Marjorie T Green put on things.

Seriously, this conference shifting is downright ridiculous and completely unregulated.

It does NEED some regulation to "right the ship."
 
Who would be the #1 target out of the Big12 in that scenario?
KU is a rivalry pairing with Mizzou with some value.

4 Corners give some value and western content & time zones if that's an impetus.

WVU is a cultural and regional fit with the conference DNA.

Other than getting into NC & VA, their other ACC options are to put a 2nd team in a state they already dominate. Exceptions would be FSU (FL is too big & FSU's too big of a brand to think they dominate FL without them) and Clemson since they're the top brand in SC and one of the premier properties in the southeast. That's how I got to 4 no-brainers for a 20-team SEC. I'm not sure other market repeats like Louisville & GT create ratings and they don't expand the footprint so Im skeptical. Which leads to the Big 12 for the other 4 - and I can't see them diluting the OK/TX market when they could relegate competitors so that OU, UT and aTm can completely dominate that market.
 
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