CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

[Alfred91]

Oregon could go independent. Washington needs a conference.

I don't think Oregon could pull it off. ND pulls it off because as a national brand, they're off the charts. But even still, they found that they had to sign an agreement with the ACC to consistently get the quality opponents they needed to get into the CFP.

Oregon isn't going to be able to do that, imo. Once the P5 get into their conferences schedules, Oregon would be stuck playing G5 schools, and they'd be cooked nationally.

 

[chitownbuff]

We have to weaken the B12 if we want to convince the networks that we can be the 3rd best conference. Let the P2 fight over the ACC schools and that legal ****hole.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I don't think Oregon could pull it off. ND pulls it off because as a national brand, they're off the charts. But even still, they found that they had to sign an agreement with the ACC to consistently get the quality opponents they needed to get into the CFP.

Oregon isn't going to be able to do that, imo. Once the P5 get into their conferences schedules, Oregon would be stuck playing G5 schools, and they'd be cooked nationally.

Yeah a Pac 12 schedule Oregon already gets **** on nationally and isn’t taken all that seriously for the CFP, so I’m not sure what an independent Oregon schedule would do for them. Also, if Oregon brought enough money to the table to be sustainable as a big time independent, they’d have gotten the B1G invite.

Let’s be real, if it weren’t for Phil Knight and Nike subsidizing the program, Oregon would be a middling P5 program.

 

[DBT]

Wilner has a vested interest in seeing the Pac whatever the **** it is now remain viable. He was tweeting earlier today about some sort of out of the box solution......and you guys don't think Mvher is credible? Neither's he. Canzano is the same animal right now.....but the people on here who care more about wine and cheese will be all over what both of them say I'm sure.

I'm done with CU athletics if the idiots who run this ****ing school stick in this stale-ass league that gives more of a **** about water polo than they do football. Better ways to invest my entertainment money than on this ****.

At the rate it’s going, it’ll be called “The 6 Pac”

 

[Mb2658]

Wilner has a vested interest in seeing the Pac whatever the **** it is now remain viable. He was tweeting earlier today about some sort of out of the box solution......and you guys don't think Mvher is credible? Neither's he. Canzano is the same animal right now.....but the people on here who care more about wine and cheese will be all over what both of them say I'm sure.

At the rate it’s going, it’ll be called “The 6 Pac”

6 PAC. Fits with the whole west coast fitness vibe.

 

[MtnBuff]

In the new order of college football at the top level I don't see being an independent as viable. They are going to be going to an expanded playoff with the race to the playoff and automatic bids and seeding being part of the selling points (NFL light.) Eventually ND is going to have to get in line if they want the big money.

The PAC could tell UO and UW to sign a massive GOR to which the schools would respond by telling them to pound sand. Without those two schools and with $C and UCLA already gone the PAC becomes one step above the MWC, and not a giant step.

Normally GORs are based on conference revenue. Based on past memory it isn't unusual to base the GOR buy out on two years of conference revenue, the media money.

Hypothetically lets assume that conference revenues per school in the PAC stay around $30 million per school. The assumption was that they would be going up substantially but without the LA schools that is unlikely. Sign the two schools to a contract for four years at this amount or roughly $120 million per school, double the traditional rate.

They leave anyways for the B1G where payouts are at say $100 million per school but as a cost of entry that conference assesses them two years revenue split over four years.

If they had stayed they would have gotten $120 million over the four years, instead they are getting $200 million over four years and have to pay $120 of that to the PAC. At the end of four years they are down $40 million but the next year and each year following they come out $70 million ahead,

No question, even with a big GOR they are gone but as this post started I doubt the PAC could get them to sign on to that deal.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Dodd breaks it down a bit. Says media industry sources call UW and UO tweeners for realignment. Bad geography, good brands, but neither bring enough money to warrant inclusion.

 

[ahoelsken]

"and Oregon has put in their reserves as they increase their lead over CU by 35 headed to the half. this inaugural season in the Pac 12 for the Buffs has been rough."

Btw, this was not even a hypothetical. This actually happened in 2011, if you remember.

35-0 Oregon at half time IN Boulder.

Don't remind me. I was at that game.



What the **** is this, Wilner? One, every CFB fan with half a brain knows FOX was behind this, just like ESPN orchestrated OU/Texas to the SEC. Two, this is an eat or be eaten world. Nobody wants to hear you bitch.

 

[Buffnik]

Frankly, if we're keeping the Pac together and we get a strong legal opinion that the ACC GoR will hold, I think it would make sense to mirror their GoR language and term.

Do everything on the conference level to make as much money as possible with as wide of distribution as possible for the next dozen years. While, as CU, investing like crazy to be attractive for that next round of realignment.

 

[MtnBuff]

Frankly, if we're keeping the Pac together and we get a strong legal opinion that the ACC GoR will hold, I think it would make sense to mirror their GoR language and term.

Do everything on the conference level to make as much money as possible with as wide of distribution as possible for the next dozen years. While, as CU, investing like crazy to be attractive for that next round of realignment.

Unfortunately unless there are huge changes in Boulder that we all know are highly unlikely that investing like crazy in winning isn't going to happen. This is a school that wants to pretend like it is above such mundane things like competing in football.

If somehow we got another President like Gordon Gee and a cooperative BOR it might happen but don't bet your kids milk money on it happening.

 

[FLounder]

You would thinking offering the leagues a free win in a destination city would be enough.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Frankly, if we're keeping the Pac together and we get a strong legal opinion that the ACC GoR will hold, I think it would make sense to mirror their GoR language and term.

Do everything on the conference level to make as much money as possible with as wide of distribution as possible for the next dozen years. While, as CU, investing like crazy to be attractive for that next round of realignment.

I wouldn’t want it through 2036. Still want to have more flexibility than the ACC programs, but yeah maybe a 10 year GoR, but I would also try to poach at least a couple Big 12 programs as well, if for nothing else to reduce that conference to a clear #5 in the pecking order for the next 10 years and put the Pac12/14 on par with the ACC for #3, knowing that in all likelihood, ACC will dissolve in 12 years and you need to be #3

 

[SuperD]

I get why everyone feels the football interest the B12 is a lot higher but there is some evidence that the P12 presidents aren't wrong in that the TV data may show that the P10 is a stronger league for TV viewership than then rump B12. Andy Staples article in the Athletic on the number of games schools had with over 1 million plus viewers in the non-P2 over the last 7 years was interesting.

Clemson is clearly the belle of the ball, but Oregon and Washington weren't that far behind. Colorado fared better than expected given our terrible record over that stretch and the number of games we play on the P12 network, better than ASU actually, which makes me think our brand is actually bit stronger than the perception if we could just pull our head out of our ass and win some effing games. It may also be because Colorado has historically been willing to schedule hard OOC match ups. WSU was actually surprisingly strong...higher than us but that may have been propped up a bit by interest in the Apple Cup, and people forget just how much raw entertainment the Pirate's Wazzou teams had. However, other than Okie State the rump B12's highest team was Baylor who was actually behind us. The P12 also still has a pretty significantly higher population footprint.

The metric Staple's used for the analysis may somewhat bias for the P12 though given our ownership of the night window, and I think its likely the networks care more about the potential for 4 million plus games rather than 1 million plus. The data also does seem to indicate our general consensus, if the P2 consolidation settles at 18 or 20 schools per league we're likely out, if its 24 we're in. I think they are likely to not go any higher than 20 though if the leagues' focus is on maximizing short term revenues.

I think the data also clarifies what no one wants to admit, the best way to save the most remaining ACC/P10/B12 schools would be to blow up all 3 leagues to take the top 6 or 7 schools from both the ACC and P12 and poach a couple of B12 schools, as well as likely pull in a third content player to push the marketing for that league and provide more prime time viewing slots.

SIAP - https://theathletic.com/3410274/2022/07/08/college-football-realignment-tv-viewers/

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I get why everyone feels the football interest the B12 is a lot higher but there is some evidence that the P12 presidents aren't wrong in that the TV data may show that the P10 is a stronger league for TV viewership than then rump B12. Andy Staples article in the Athletic on the number of games schools had with over 1 million plus viewers in the non-P2 over the last 7 years was interesting.

Clemson is clearly the belle of the ball, but Oregon and Washington weren't that far behind. Colorado fared better than expected given our terrible record over that stretch and the number of games we play on the P12 network, better than ASU actually, which makes me think our brand is actually bit stronger than the perception if we could just pull our head out of our ass and win some effing games. It may also be because Colorado has historically been willing to schedule hard OOC match ups. WSU was actually surprisingly strong...higher than us but that may have been propped up a bit by interest in the Apple Cup, and people forget just how much raw entertainment the Pirate's Wazzou teams had. However, other than Okie State the rump B12's highest team was Baylor who was actually behind us. The P12 also still has a pretty significantly higher population footprint.

The metric Staple's used for the analysis may somewhat bias for the P12 though given our ownership of the night window, and I think its likely the networks care more about the potential for 4 million plus games rather than 1 million plus. The data also does seem to indicate our general consensus, if the P2 consolidation settles at 18 or 20 schools per league we're likely out, if its 24 we're in. I think they are likely to not go any higher than 20 though if the leagues' focus is on maximizing short term revenues.

I think the data also clarifies what no one wants to admit, the best way to save the most remaining ACC/P10/B12 schools would be to blow up all 3 leagues to take the top 6 or 7 schools from both the ACC and P12 and poach a couple of B12 schools, as well as likely pull in a third content player to push the marketing for that league and provide more prime time viewing slots.

SIAP - https://theathletic.com/3410274/2022/07/08/college-football-realignment-tv-viewers/

Washington State went to 6 bowl games over the 2015-2019 and 2021 time frame Staples uses, which is the real difference maker in those 1m viewer numbers. I’m also willing to bet CU is one of the only programs in the upper half of that list that only went to 1 or fewer bowl games during that time frame. Had they gone to 6 bowl games as well, I imagine they would be right there tied for 6th on that list with Washington State, if not higher due to them naturally being better and playing in bigger games.

Basically, I think you’re right, the national perception of Colorado is higher than what Colorado fans think of ourselves, likely because the majority of CFB viewers remember CU as a good program.

 

[SuperD]

Washington State went to 6 bowl games over the 2015-2019 and 2021 time frame Staples uses, which is the real difference maker in those 1m viewer numbers. I’m also willing to bet CU is one of the only programs in the upper half of that list that only went to 1 or fewer bowl games during that time frame.

Basically, I think you’re right, the national perception of Colorado is higher than what Colorado fans think of ourselves, likely because the majority of CFB viewers remember CU as a good program.

I think he said he pulled out any games against OU/UT, USC/UCLA, or schools in the B1G or SEC, which means the games against TAMU and NU that pulled great numbers aren't even in there.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I think he said he pulled out any games against OU/UT, USC/UCLA, or schools in the B1G or SEC, which means the games against TAMU and NU that pulled great numbers aren't even in there.

I said it before ITT and laid out the attendance/ticket sales numbers at Folsom over the same time frame as that article. CU can be a brand again and people will tune in to watch, if they’re winning. Need to administration to use this as a wake up call and decide to gtfo of the way and invest in making them competitive.

 

[ahoelsken]

I get why everyone feels the football interest the B12 is a lot higher but there is some evidence that the P12 presidents aren't wrong in that the TV data may show that the P10 is a stronger league for TV viewership than then rump B12. Andy Staples article in the Athletic on the number of games schools had with over 1 million plus viewers in the non-P2 over the last 7 years was interesting.

Clemson is clearly the belle of the ball, but Oregon and Washington weren't that far behind. Colorado fared better than expected given our terrible record over that stretch and the number of games we play on the P12 network, better than ASU actually, which makes me think our brand is actually bit stronger than the perception if we could just pull our head out of our ass and win some effing games. It may also be because Colorado has historically been willing to schedule hard OOC match ups. WSU was actually surprisingly strong...higher than us but that may have been propped up a bit by interest in the Apple Cup, and people forget just how much raw entertainment the Pirate's Wazzou teams had. However, other than Okie State the rump B12's highest team was Baylor who was actually behind us. The P12 also still has a pretty significantly higher population footprint.

The metric Staple's used for the analysis may somewhat bias for the P12 though given our ownership of the night window, and I think its likely the networks care more about the potential for 4 million plus games rather than 1 million plus. The data also does seem to indicate our general consensus, if the P2 consolidation settles at 18 or 20 schools per league we're likely out, if its 24 we're in. I think they are likely to not go any higher than 20 though if the leagues' focus is on maximizing short term revenues.

I think the data also clarifies what no one wants to admit, the best way to save the most remaining ACC/P10/B12 schools would be to blow up all 3 leagues to take the top 6 or 7 schools from both the ACC and P12 and poach a couple of B12 schools, as well as likely pull in a third content player to push the marketing for that league and provide more prime time viewing slots.

SIAP - https://theathletic.com/3410274/2022/07/08/college-football-realignment-tv-viewers/

Not the way things stand IMO. The Pac 10 has to have another network TV bidder IMO. I've seen nothing on CBS being willing to bid for the Pac 10's rights when they can get involved. Same goes with Turner. I don't think you can roll with only being what ESPN puts on at 8pm MT or later, and FOX doesn't want it for two reasons. One, they can feasibly take the Big 10's schedule on a given Saturday and set it to where they have Ohio State at 10am MT, Michigan in that 1:30pm window, and USC in prime time. If you're them, you're probably fine with the Mountain West as your late night TV inventory given you have the Big 10. Does Amazon or Apple work and are they even interested? From what I've seen, no.

 

[PAHIBuff]

It checks out, which is sad. It was a mistake gettin in bed with these boring, pretentious mother****ers in the first place. It’s not like they were killin it before they took us in, that’s how they thought Larry Scott was some kind of genius. We shoulda known better

 

[MiamiBuffs]

It checks out, which is sad. It was a mistake gettin in bed with these boring, pretentious mother****ers in the first place. It’s not like they were killin it before they took us in, that’s how they thought Larry Scott was some kind of genius. We shoulda known better

we couldnt stay where we were. Texas had already nuked the BigXII which is why A&M, NU, and CU left. They blocked a conference network with their longhorn network and they were already getting more money then the rest.

 

[ahoelsken]

I wouldn’t want it through 2036. Still want to have more flexibility than the ACC programs, but yeah maybe a 10 year GoR, but I would also try to poach at least a couple Big 12 programs as well, if for nothing else to reduce that conference to a clear #5 in the pecking order for the next 10 years and put the Pac12/14 on par with the ACC for #3, knowing that in all likelihood, ACC will dissolve in 12 years and you need to be #3

How do you match the Big 12's TV revenue?

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

How do you match the Big 12's TV revenue?

Because you have the two most profitable programs and convince 2-4 of the current Big12 programs to come be part of it

 

[CarolinaBuff]

I get why everyone feels the football interest the B12 is a lot higher but there is some evidence that the P12 presidents aren't wrong in that the TV data may show that the P10 is a stronger league for TV viewership than then rump B12. Andy Staples article in the Athletic on the number of games schools had with over 1 million plus viewers in the non-P2 over the last 7 years was interesting.

Clemson is clearly the belle of the ball, but Oregon and Washington weren't that far behind. Colorado fared better than expected given our terrible record over that stretch and the number of games we play on the P12 network, better than ASU actually, which makes me think our brand is actually bit stronger than the perception if we could just pull our head out of our ass and win some effing games. It may also be because Colorado has historically been willing to schedule hard OOC match ups. WSU was actually surprisingly strong...higher than us but that may have been propped up a bit by interest in the Apple Cup, and people forget just how much raw entertainment the Pirate's Wazzou teams had. However, other than Okie State the rump B12's highest team was Baylor who was actually behind us. The P12 also still has a pretty significantly higher population footprint.

The metric Staple's used for the analysis may somewhat bias for the P12 though given our ownership of the night window, and I think its likely the networks care more about the potential for 4 million plus games rather than 1 million plus. The data also does seem to indicate our general consensus, if the P2 consolidation settles at 18 or 20 schools per league we're likely out, if its 24 we're in. I think they are likely to not go any higher than 20 though if the leagues' focus is on maximizing short term revenues.

I think the data also clarifies what no one wants to admit, the best way to save the most remaining ACC/P10/B12 schools would be to blow up all 3 leagues to take the top 6 or 7 schools from both the ACC and P12 and poach a couple of B12 schools, as well as likely pull in a third content player to push the marketing for that league and provide more prime time viewing slots.

SIAP - https://theathletic.com/3410274/2022/07/08/college-football-realignment-tv-viewers/

I think he said he pulled out any games against OU/UT, USC/UCLA, or schools in the B1G or SEC, which means the games against TAMU and NU that pulled great numbers aren't even in there.

These numbers are interesting for sure. I don't have access to the article but this tweet gives you the gist of it. The population numbers undoubtedly help the Pac12 over the Big 12 schools, but I also wonder how many Pac12 teams benefitted from being in an exclusive 10:30pm EST window on ESPN/ESPN2/FS1 (see 2nd tweet below)

 

[Liver]

A few more observations… the reason CU hasn’t jumped at the big 12 offer is math. Gotta evaluate what the leftover pac is worth and compare. Also does Oregon want a larger rev share?

 

[ahoelsken]

Because you have the two most profitable programs and convince 2-4 of the current Big12 programs to come be part of it

At somewhere between $20-30M in TV revenue? Right.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

A few more observations… the reason CU hasn’t jumped at the big 12 offer is math. Gotta evaluate what the leftover pac is worth and compare. Also does Oregon want a larger rev share?

Maybe if you were able to lock them into a long term GoR deal that they weren’t able to get out from for 10 years, but otherwise I wouldn’t give Oregon or UW any concessions. They don’t have any more options than CU or Arizona does at this point.

 

[CarolinaBuff]

I don't think Oregon could pull it off. ND pulls it off because as a national brand, they're off the charts. But even still, they found that they had to sign an agreement with the ACC to consistently get the quality opponents they needed to get into the CFP.

Oregon isn't going to be able to do that, imo. Once the P5 get into their conferences schedules, Oregon would be stuck playing G5 schools, and they'd be cooked nationally.

If BYU did it then Oregon can do it too. The problem with going independent is your non-football sports but BYU has managed that by joining the WCC for most other sports.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

At somewhere between $20-30M in TV revenue? Right.

That’s exactly what the Big 12 is likely looking at for their TV deal that would include the 6 Pac 10 schools. The B12 isn’t going to be better off, which is why nobody has moved yet

 

[ahoelsken]

That’s exactly what the Big 12 is likely looking at for their TV deal that would include the 6 Pac 10 schools. The B12 isn’t going to be better off, which is why nobody has moved yet

Will the Power 5 soon become the Power 2? Unpacking new TV revenue projections for a 12-team CFP world

Updated projections indicate the SEC and the Big Ten stand to make nearly twice as much as the Big 12, Pac-12 and ACC by 2026.

theathletic.com

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

If BYU did it then Oregon can do it too. The problem with going independent is your non-football sports but BYU has managed that by joining the WCC for most other sports.

BYU has been a G5 level program in the relevant era and has never been considered a candidate for playoff consideration. Oregon can make independence work, but they won’t be considered for the playoff, like ND had been and will continue to be.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Will the Power 5 soon become the Power 2? Unpacking new TV revenue projections for a 12-team CFP world

Updated projections indicate the SEC and the Big Ten stand to make nearly twice as much as the Big 12, Pac-12 and ACC by 2026.

theathletic.com

You’re using projections from March before the entire landscape changed and Fox went all in on B1G? Dude, everything has changed in the last 9 days. The projections for the Pac 10 is around $30m/school right now. The numbers put out by your boy from West Virginia said $500-$600m for a Big18 which is around the same $30m/school. Removing Oregon and UW from that equation doesn’t bring more money per school.