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College Football Realignment

Btw, I don't believe for a second that the ACC's GoR stops anything. ESPN owns the media rights and will shuffle the deck in the way that makes them the most money. If that means eating some losses to have UNC, UVA, Duke, Clemson, FSU and Miami playing to big numbers on the B1G or SEC slates instead of playing Wake on ACCN, then that is what will happen.
 
Jens1893 said:
I don't see what Cal and Stanford bring to the table purely as football programs when you ignore their location.
Click to expand...

Remembering that todays Oregon school could be tomorrows CU with just a few missteps. And vise versa. Success today matters for sure but might not be completely and totally all that important. Cinderella stories attract a lot of eyeballs when they happen (CU? Stanford?)

It could be about, probably is mostly about, the size of the TV markets B1G football will penetrate into.
  • Los Angeles, Seattle, San Francisco are the top 3 in the P12 footprint. That makes Stanford, Cal, Udub potentially attractive after SC/UCLA
  • Next tier is Phoenix, Denver, Portland, Salt Lake,. Which makes the Arizona Schools, Oregon, CU, And UU a possibility on some level.
  • But who says the other targets are in the P12? Dallas and Houston are very big TV markets too....
  • Given this is Fox overlay some NFL CFB cross selling value too (LA, San Fran, Seattle, Denver, Phoenix, Dallas, Houston)
 
If this is purely about money, when does the B1G/SEC get coldblooded and boot out the ****ty teams in their conferences? I can't imagine Indiana adds much to the B1G
 
Buffnik said:
Btw, I don't believe for a second that the ACC's GoR stops anything. ESPN owns the media rights and will shuffle the deck in the way that makes them the most money. If that means eating some losses to have UNC, UVA, Duke, Clemson, FSU and Miami playing to big numbers on the B1G or SEC slates instead of playing Wake on ACCN, then that is what will happen.
Click to expand...
maybe. that would be an awfully big **** you to conferences already under tv deals. it is one thing to **** over the pac and timing it with the expiration of the deal. it is quite another to poach from your own contracted conference and it may even be something that can be litigated.

big is in the cat bird seat right now and can decide how they want to expand, if at all, now that they have the LA market and usc especially. wilner says don't expect the big is done. i would say don't expect they are not done either. are any of the remaining 17 academically aligned schools (and that doesn't subtract for those already in good tv deals) going to be in better or worse shape in a year from now in their negotiating position to find a new home? and, really, does the big care if the sec were to descend from on high and scoop up say oregon? i don't think they do care. this was a power move to get usc and ucla. everything else is gravy.
 
MiamiBuffs said:
Remembering that todays Oregon school could be tomorrows CU with just a few missteps. And vise versa. Success today matters for sure but might not be completely and totally all that important. Cinderella stories attract a lot of eyeballs when they happen (CU? Stanford?)

It could be about, probably is about, the size of the TV markets B1G football will penetrate into.
  • Los Angeles, Seattle, San Francisco are the top 3 in the P12 footprint. That makes Stanford, Cal, Udub potentially attractive after SC/UCLA
  • Next tier is Phoenix, Denver, Portland, Salt Lake,. Which makes the Arizona Schools, Oregon, CU, And UU a possibility on some level.
  • But who says the other targets are in the P12? Dallas and Houston are very big TV markets too....
Click to expand...
Yep. Pretty much look at where pro leagues are putting franchises to figure out where the B1G and SEC will look.

CU, despite myriad problems and a joke of a football program, checks a lot of boxes for the B1G:

1. Denver market
2. Colorado population (only program that could represent the Front Range super metro)
3. AAU member
4. Nebraska rivalry that draws a big national number

We've got a shot.

USC and UCLA are the top prizes.
Next is Notre Dame (they'd make an AAU concession).
Then there's a big group of Colorado, Oregon, Washington, Cal, Stanford, Arizona, Utah, Missouri, Kansas, Virginia, North Carolina, Utah, Arizona State, Duke and Syracuse that would all have an argument and a prayer. Possibly GA Tech if geography isn't an issue (and it doesn't appear to be).

We need to hope the B1G goes to 24.
 
Liver said:
maybe. that would be an awfully big **** you to conferences already under tv deals. it is one thing to **** over the pac and timing it with the expiration of the deal. it is quite another to poach from your own contracted conference and it may even be something that can be litigated.

big is in the cat bird seat right now and can decide how they want to expand, if at all, now that they have the LA market and usc especially. wilner says don't expect the big is done. i would say don't expect they are not done either. are any of the remaining 17 academically aligned schools (and that doesn't subtract for those already in good tv deals) going to be in better or worse shape in a year from now in their negotiating position to find a new home? and, really, does the big care if the sec were to descend from on high and scoop up say oregon? i don't think they do care. this was a power move to get usc and ucla. everything else is gravy.
Click to expand...
ESPN just did that to their Big 12 partner with confidential meetings it orchestrated between the SEC and UT/OU.
 
Buffnik said:
ESPN just did that to their Big 12 partner with confidential meetings it orchestrated between the SEC and UT/OU.
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did they do enough to get dirty? i dunno. the devils in the details.

we have an outside shot to land in the big. it won't be our call. more likely we end up in the left-behinds that form something from the remnants of the b12 and p12 and maybe pull a couple non-p5 teams in too to round it out.
 
Buffnik said:
Btw, I don't believe for a second that the ACC's GoR stops anything. ESPN owns the media rights and will shuffle the deck in the way that makes them the most money. If that means eating some losses to have UNC, UVA, Duke, Clemson, FSU and Miami playing to big numbers on the B1G or SEC slates instead of playing Wake on ACCN, then that is what will happen.
Click to expand...

I would assume that the schools granted their rights to the ACC and then the ACC sold them to ESPN - I don't think ESPN can just decide to circumvent the ACC for a selection of schools since they were sold as a package.
 
InTheBuff said:

List of television stations in North America by media market - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

Phoenix #11 - Has NFL Team
Seattle #12 - Has NFL Team
Denver #16 - Has NFL Team
Portland #21 - Too bad, soooo sad 😢

what kind of pull does this have ?
Click to expand...

Fixed for humor purposes. ;)

However you left off
In all seriousness NFL is hands down ratings #1 sport. There is compelling cross sell for Fox which I believe was already pumping up B1G pumping up the NFC in a constant loop to drive ratings for awhile now. Fox also doesnt really have a streaming product to hide games behind a paywall like ESPN.

Im really super super curious who is behind this. CBS / Paramount is kind of ****ed after losing SEC. Disney ESPN has already paid a boat load for SEC. I think its Fox and theyre cementing their position.
 
NCTX said:
I would assume that the schools granted their rights to the ACC and then the ACC sold them to ESPN - I don't think ESPN can just decide to circumvent the ACC for a selection of schools since they were sold as a package.
Click to expand...
GoR lawsuit success hinges on material harm. If ESPN pays each remaining ACC member the same rate for the rest of the agreement term, where was the harm?

Also, if OU and UT don't wait until the Big 12's GoR expires to join the SEC (which is what's expected), there will be a legal settlement on the books soon for breaking GoR.
 
Jens1893 said:
Way less than most people think.

The key independent variables here are general support for the football program and commitment to the football program at an institutional and fan level with the key dependent variable being (recent) football success, but the 2 independent ones are the key predictors for future success.
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Advertising rates charged to advertisers directly correlate to TV ratings. Ad revenue pays for the contract to the conference. Its all about eyeballs and people tuning in. Just ask Jake from State Farm. People sitting in the stands dont have as much value to the TV people. A school with poor attendance might have better ratings as people tune in.

And you cant predict who the next Oregon is going to be. Back in the Big8 years where CU was a God of football Oregon was no better than WSU and UW and Don James was a declining Kingdom.

There is a reason the NFL moved teams to LA, the #2 TV market in the US. What a coincidence that one was an AFC team and one was an NFC team. Another example is the rumored BigXII expansion a few years back which died/was squashed: TV refused to give new money to the two new schools. I.e., TV didnt see anything worthwhile ratings wise.
 
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MiamiBuffs said:
Remembering that todays Oregon school could be tomorrows CU with just a few missteps. And vise versa. Success today matters for sure but might not be completely and totally all that important. Cinderella stories attract a lot of eyeballs when they happen (CU? Stanford?)

It could be about, probably is mostly about, the size of the TV markets B1G football will penetrate into.
  • Los Angeles, Seattle, San Francisco are the top 3 in the P12 footprint. That makes Stanford, Cal, Udub potentially attractive after SC/UCLA
  • Next tier is Phoenix, Denver, Portland, Salt Lake,. Which makes the Arizona Schools, Oregon, CU, And UU a possibility on some level.
  • But who says the other targets are in the P12? Dallas and Houston are very big TV markets too....
  • Given this is Fox overlay some NFL CFB cross selling value too (LA, San Fran, Seattle, Denver, Phoenix, Dallas, Houston)
Click to expand...
and how long is the Phil Knight gravy train going to last. DO they even have any other major donors? He's 85 and his wife and kids don't share the same level of affinity for the school that he does. Unless he leaves billions to the AD at UO prior to death, they'll never be able to maintain competitiveness in NIL
 
Reminds me of the absolute rock bottom moment in CU football fandom when old and senile Bill McCartney along with a douchey and petulant Joel Klatt decided to run Mike Bohn out of town publicly for having the audacity to fire the completely hapless and unqualified Jon Embree...

Anyway I guess I'm saying we get what we deserve.
 
Liver said:
mizzery isn't an academic fit and brings no meaningful additional tv markets they don't already have with nebraska and iowa.
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Kansas City? St Louis? You egotistical mimosa sipping coastal elite. You have no understanding of the Blue Collar man and the flyover states he lives in.
 
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