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CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

Buffnik said:
Do you think there's value in breaking the MWC?
Click to expand...
I don't think you're asking the right question. Any move to break the MWC involves probably 4 teams. If you're taking that many teams when maybe San Diego State's the only team from that league that adds any value......you're diluting your own value to a large extent.

Does that make sense? To me.........no.
 
Buffnik said:
Do you think there's value in breaking the MWC?
Click to expand...

The MWC does have viable FCS candidates that could join the conference. NDSU & SDSU and maybe the Montana schools will bite this time around. Southern Utah & Utah Tech could possibly move up since that state lacks a NFL team at this point. There are at least a couple of FCS teams from Texas that could make the move.

The Sun Belt has a good blueprint and the MWC & C-USA would be wise to mimic. I listed at least eight FCS schools that potentially could make the move up to the MWC so I'm not sure it's possible to break the MWC at this point. You add the right members, the MWC could become the best G5 conference again.
 
ahoelsken said:
I don't think you're asking the right question. Any move to break the MWC involves probably 4 teams. If you're taking that many teams when maybe San Diego State's the only team from that league that adds any value......you're diluting your own value to a large extent.

Does that make sense? To me.........no.
Click to expand...
Part of my thinking is that much of the P5 is there due to traditional affiliation and not based on maximizing media value with respect to current US population.

When considering that, the Pac taking a strategy of bringing up some G5 and owning the west has some merit.

Since I don't feel like working, I decided to play with state population and the number of P5 programs per capita within those states.

While there are certainly other factors which matter besides in-state population such as national brand, I think that playing in a P5 conference and winning/getting ranked quickly changes that. So I'm thinking in terms of where you might make bets that the elevated G5 has the resources to turn into a significant asset.

1. CA. 39.2M pop. 4 P5. 9.8M per P5.
2. TX. 29.5M pop. 6 P5. 4.9M per P5.
3. FL. 21.8M pop. 4 P5. 5.5M per P5.
4. NY. 19.8M pop. 1 P5. 19.8M per P5.
5. PA. 13.0M pop. 2 P5. 6.5M per P5.
6. IL. 12.7M pop. 2 P5. 6.5M per P5.
7. OH. 11.8M pop. 2 P5. 5.9M per P5.
8. GA. 10.8M pop. 2 P5. 5.4M per P5.
9. NC. 10.6M pop. 4 P5. 2.7M per P5.
10. MI. 10.1M pop. 2 P5. 5.1M per P5.
11. NJ. 9.3M pop. 1 P5. 9.3M per P5.
12. VA. 8.6M pop. 2 P5. 4.3M per P5.
13. WA. 7.7M pop. 2 P5. 3.9M per P5.
14. AZ. 7.3M pop. 2 P5. 3.7M per P5.
15. MA. 7.0M pop. 1 P5. 7.0M per P5.
16. TN. 7.0M pop. 2 P5. 3.5M per P5.
17. IN. 6.8M pop. 3 P5. 2.3M per P5.
18. MO. 6.2M pop. 1 P5. 6.2M per P5.
19. MD. 6.2M pop (6.9M w DC). 6.2-6.9M per P5.
20. WI. 5.9M pop. 1 P5. 5.9M per P5.
21. CO. 5.8M pop. 1 P5. 5.8 M per P5.
22. MN. 5.7M pop. 1 P5. 5.7M per P5.
23. SC. 5.2M pop. 2 P5. 2.6M per P5.
24. AL. 5.0M pop. 2 P5. 2.5M per P5.
25. LA. 4.6M pop. 1 P5. 4.6M per P5.
26. KY. 4.5M pop. 2 P5. 2.3M per P5.
27. OR. 4.2M pop. 2 P5. 2.1M per P5.
28. OK. 4.0M pop. 2 P5. 2.0M per P5.
29. CT. 3.6M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
30. UT. 3.3M pop. 2 P5. 1.7M per P5.
31. IA. 3.2M pop. 2 P5. 1.6M per P5.
32. NV. 3.1M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
33. AR. 3.0M pop. 1 P5. 3.0M per P5.
34. MS. 2.9M pop. 2 P5. 1.5M per P5.
35. KS. 2.9M pop. 2 P5. 1.5M per P5.
36. NM. 2.1M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
37. NE. 2.0M pop. 1 P5. 2.0M per P5.
38. ID. 1.9M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
39. WV. 1.8M pop. 1 P5. 1.8M per P5.
40. HI. 1.4M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
41. NH. 1.4M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
42. ME. 1.4M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
43. RI. 1.1M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
44. MT. 1.1M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
45. DE. 1.0M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
46. SD. 0.9M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
47. ND. 0.8M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
48. AK. 0.7M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
49. VT. 0.6M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
50. WY. 0.6M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.

Taking the above, here's what the Pac expansion possibilities would bring in state population.

SDSU: 7.8M by itself; 6.5M with FSU.
FSU: 7.8M by itself; 6.5M with SDSU.
SMU: 4.2M by itself; 3.7M with UTSA.
UTSA: 4.2M by itself; 3.7M with SMU.
UNLV: 3.1M
CSU: 2.9M, but it splits a Pac market.
UNM: 2.1M
BSU: 1.9M

The above are raw numbers. Then you'd have to look at home metro and what share of the market care about college sports + what share of the P5 pie they would get + national appeal (which dramatically inflates a Notre Dame, for example).

Based on this, I think a Pac-12 which added SDSU and FSU would be the way to go. For a Pac-14, SMU and UNLV are the next 2. I don't see going past that.
 
Last edited:
Buffnik said:
Part of my thinking is that much of the P5 is there due to traditional affiliation and not based on maximizing media value with respect to current US population.

When considering that, the Pac taking a strategy of bringing up some G5 and owning the west has some merit.

Since I don't feel like working, I decided to play with state population and the number of P5 programs per capita within those states.

While there are certainly other factors which matter besides in-state population such as national brand, I think that playing in a P5 conference and winning/getting ranked quickly changes that. So I'm thinking in terms of where you might make bets that the elevated G5 has the resources to turn into a significant asset.

1. CA. 39.2M pop. 4 P5. 9.8M per P5.
2. TX. 29.5M pop. 6 P5. 4.9M per P5.
3. FL. 21.8M pop. 4 P5. 5.5M per P5.
4. NY. 19.8M pop. 1 P5. 19.8M per P5.
5. PA. 13.0M pop. 2 P5. 6.5M per P5.
6. IL. 12.7M pop. 2 P5. 6.5M per P5.
7. OH. 11.8M pop. 2 P5. 5.9M per P5.
8. GA. 10.8M pop. 2 P5. 5.4M per P5.
9. NC. 10.6M pop. 4 P5. 2.7M per P5.
10. MI. 10.1M pop. 2 P5. 5.1M per P5.
11. NJ. 9.3M pop. 1 P5. 9.3M per P5.
12. VA. 8.6M pop. 2 P5. 4.3M per P5.
13. WA. 7.7M pop. 2 P5. 3.9M per P5.
14. AZ. 7.3M pop. 2 P5. 3.7M per P5.
15. MA. 7.0M pop. 1 P5. 7.0M per P5.
16. TN. 7.0M pop. 2 P5. 3.5M per P5.
17. IN. 6.8M pop. 3 P5. 2.3M per P5.
18. MO. 6.2M pop. 1 P5. 6.2M per P5.
19. MD. 6.2M pop (6.9M w DC). 6.2-6.9M per P5.
20. WI. 5.9M pop. 1 P5. 5.9M per P5.
21. CO. 5.8M pop. 1 P5. 5.8 M per P5.
22. MN. 5.7M pop. 1 P5. 5.7M per P5.
23. SC. 5.2M pop. 2 P5. 2.6M per P5.
24. AL. 5.0M pop. 2 P5. 2.5M per P5.
25. LA. 4.6M pop. 1 P5. 4.6M per P5.
26. KY. 4.5M pop. 2 P5. 2.3M per P5.
27. OR. 4.2M pop. 2 P5. 2.1M per P5.
28. OK. 4.0M pop. 2 P5. 2.0M per P5.
29. CT. 3.6M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
30. UT. 3.3M pop. 2 P5. 1.7M per P5.
31. IA. 3.2M pop. 2 P5. 1.6M per P5.
32. NV. 3.1M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
33. AR. 3.0M pop. 1 P5. 3.0M per P5.
34. MS. 2.9M pop. 2 P5. 1.5M per P5.
35. KS. 2.9M pop. 2 P5. 1.5M per P5.
36. NM. 2.1M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
37. NE. 2.0M pop. 1 P5. 2.0M per P5.
38. ID. 1.9M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
39. WV. 1.8M pop. 1 P5. 1.8M per P5.
40. HI. 1.4M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
41. NH. 1.4M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
42. MN. 1.4M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
43. RI. 1.1M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
44. MT. 1.1M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
45. DE. 1.0M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
46. SD. 0.9M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
47. ND. 0.8M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
48. AK. 0.7M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
49. VT. 0.6M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
50. WY. 0.6M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.

Taking the above, here's what the Pac expansion possibilities would bring in state population.

SDSU: 7.8M by itself; 6.5M with FSU.
FSU: 7.8M by itself; 6.5M with SDSU.
SMU: 4.2M by itself; 3.7M with UTSA.
UTSA: 4.2M by itself; 3.7M with SMU.
UNLV: 3.1M
CSU: 2.9M, but it splits a Pac market.
UNM: 2.1M
BSU: 1.9M

The above are raw numbers. Then you'd have to look at home metro and what share of the market care about college sports + what share of the P5 pie they would get + national appeal (which dramatically inflates a Notre Dame, for example).

Based on this, I think a Pac-12 which added SDSU and FSU would be the way to go. For a Pac-14, SMU and UNLV are the next 2. I don't see going past that.
Click to expand...
True-I don't think breaking the MWC so you force FOX to buy a package of Saturday evening/late night games from you is that worthwhile.

I would add SDSU and Fresno. That gets back to 12 and probably the two prettiest girls among what's a fairly gross bunch.
 
Buffnik said:
Part of my thinking is that much of the P5 is there due to traditional affiliation and not based on maximizing media value with respect to current US population.

When considering that, the Pac taking a strategy of bringing up some G5 and owning the west has some merit.

Since I don't feel like working, I decided to play with state population and the number of P5 programs per capita within those states.

While there are certainly other factors which matter besides in-state population such as national brand, I think that playing in a P5 conference and winning/getting ranked quickly changes that. So I'm thinking in terms of where you might make bets that the elevated G5 has the resources to turn into a significant asset.

1. CA. 39.2M pop. 4 P5. 9.8M per P5.
2. TX. 29.5M pop. 6 P5. 4.9M per P5.
3. FL. 21.8M pop. 4 P5. 5.5M per P5.
4. NY. 19.8M pop. 1 P5. 19.8M per P5.
5. PA. 13.0M pop. 2 P5. 6.5M per P5.
6. IL. 12.7M pop. 2 P5. 6.5M per P5.
7. OH. 11.8M pop. 2 P5. 5.9M per P5.
8. GA. 10.8M pop. 2 P5. 5.4M per P5.
9. NC. 10.6M pop. 4 P5. 2.7M per P5.
10. MI. 10.1M pop. 2 P5. 5.1M per P5.
11. NJ. 9.3M pop. 1 P5. 9.3M per P5.
12. VA. 8.6M pop. 2 P5. 4.3M per P5.
13. WA. 7.7M pop. 2 P5. 3.9M per P5.
14. AZ. 7.3M pop. 2 P5. 3.7M per P5.
15. MA. 7.0M pop. 1 P5. 7.0M per P5.
16. TN. 7.0M pop. 2 P5. 3.5M per P5.
17. IN. 6.8M pop. 3 P5. 2.3M per P5.
18. MO. 6.2M pop. 1 P5. 6.2M per P5.
19. MD. 6.2M pop (6.9M w DC). 6.2-6.9M per P5.
20. WI. 5.9M pop. 1 P5. 5.9M per P5.
21. CO. 5.8M pop. 1 P5. 5.8 M per P5.
22. MN. 5.7M pop. 1 P5. 5.7M per P5.
23. SC. 5.2M pop. 2 P5. 2.6M per P5.
24. AL. 5.0M pop. 2 P5. 2.5M per P5.
25. LA. 4.6M pop. 1 P5. 4.6M per P5.
26. KY. 4.5M pop. 2 P5. 2.3M per P5.
27. OR. 4.2M pop. 2 P5. 2.1M per P5.
28. OK. 4.0M pop. 2 P5. 2.0M per P5.
29. CT. 3.6M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
30. UT. 3.3M pop. 2 P5. 1.7M per P5.
31. IA. 3.2M pop. 2 P5. 1.6M per P5.
32. NV. 3.1M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
33. AR. 3.0M pop. 1 P5. 3.0M per P5.
34. MS. 2.9M pop. 2 P5. 1.5M per P5.
35. KS. 2.9M pop. 2 P5. 1.5M per P5.
36. NM. 2.1M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
37. NE. 2.0M pop. 1 P5. 2.0M per P5.
38. ID. 1.9M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
39. WV. 1.8M pop. 1 P5. 1.8M per P5.
40. HI. 1.4M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
41. NH. 1.4M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
42. MN. 1.4M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
43. RI. 1.1M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
44. MT. 1.1M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
45. DE. 1.0M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
46. SD. 0.9M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
47. ND. 0.8M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
48. AK. 0.7M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
49. VT. 0.6M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
50. WY. 0.6M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.

Taking the above, here's what the Pac expansion possibilities would bring in state population.

SDSU: 7.8M by itself; 6.5M with FSU.
FSU: 7.8M by itself; 6.5M with SDSU.
SMU: 4.2M by itself; 3.7M with UTSA.
UTSA: 4.2M by itself; 3.7M with SMU.
UNLV: 3.1M
CSU: 2.9M, but it splits a Pac market.
UNM: 2.1M
BSU: 1.9M

The above are raw numbers. Then you'd have to look at home metro and what share of the market care about college sports + what share of the P5 pie they would get + national appeal (which dramatically inflates a Notre Dame, for example).

Based on this, I think a Pac-12 which added SDSU and FSU would be the way to go. For a Pac-14, SMU and UNLV are the next 2. I don't see going past that.
Click to expand...
I don't think any of this really matters because it does not include a measure of engagement. By the numbers Rutgers should be the most valuable program in the country with over 8 times the market of Alabama. What it doesn't say is that most fans in New York state don't engage much in college football while the Alabama fans live it, even when they no longer live in that state and are included in somebody else,s numbers.

An example is we keep seeing SDSU mentioned. They are the only game in a large, affluent, and growing city, one that no longer has an NFL franchise. Problem is that the people in San Diego couldn't care less about that team. Even when they are ranked and winning their conference people don't show up. Their TV ratings both locally and nationally are poor. It should work but doesn't.

Another is to look at schools in Texas. Texas is a college football crazy state. Any given Saturday afternoon in the fall if they aren't in a stadium large numbers of Texans are in front of a game on TV. So why not grab a couple of Texas schools? Because even though they have quality programs all over the state a big portion of those fans are dedicated to 1. the Longhorns or 2. the Aggies, with a smaller number locked in to 3. Baylor and with some other programs with dedicated statewide fan bases as well. The numbers left over for an SMU, UTSA, etc. just aren't enough to move the needle the direction it needs to go.

Long term the answer is not going to be in expanding and diluting the P5 level, it is going to be in shrinking and consolidating it This is going to be painful for many schools but if anybody outside of the SEC/B1G other than Notre Dame wants a realistic shot at success both financially and on the field it has to happen.
 
Buffnik said:
Part of my thinking is that much of the P5 is there due to traditional affiliation and not based on maximizing media value with respect to current US population.

When considering that, the Pac taking a strategy of bringing up some G5 and owning the west has some merit.

Since I don't feel like working, I decided to play with state population and the number of P5 programs per capita within those states.

While there are certainly other factors which matter besides in-state population such as national brand, I think that playing in a P5 conference and winning/getting ranked quickly changes that. So I'm thinking in terms of where you might make bets that the elevated G5 has the resources to turn into a significant asset.

1. CA. 39.2M pop. 4 P5. 9.8M per P5.
2. TX. 29.5M pop. 6 P5. 4.9M per P5.
3. FL. 21.8M pop. 4 P5. 5.5M per P5.
4. NY. 19.8M pop. 1 P5. 19.8M per P5.
5. PA. 13.0M pop. 2 P5. 6.5M per P5.
6. IL. 12.7M pop. 2 P5. 6.5M per P5.
7. OH. 11.8M pop. 2 P5. 5.9M per P5.
8. GA. 10.8M pop. 2 P5. 5.4M per P5.
9. NC. 10.6M pop. 4 P5. 2.7M per P5.
10. MI. 10.1M pop. 2 P5. 5.1M per P5.
11. NJ. 9.3M pop. 1 P5. 9.3M per P5.
12. VA. 8.6M pop. 2 P5. 4.3M per P5.
13. WA. 7.7M pop. 2 P5. 3.9M per P5.
14. AZ. 7.3M pop. 2 P5. 3.7M per P5.
15. MA. 7.0M pop. 1 P5. 7.0M per P5.
16. TN. 7.0M pop. 2 P5. 3.5M per P5.
17. IN. 6.8M pop. 3 P5. 2.3M per P5.
18. MO. 6.2M pop. 1 P5. 6.2M per P5.
19. MD. 6.2M pop (6.9M w DC). 6.2-6.9M per P5.
20. WI. 5.9M pop. 1 P5. 5.9M per P5.
21. CO. 5.8M pop. 1 P5. 5.8 M per P5.
22. MN. 5.7M pop. 1 P5. 5.7M per P5.
23. SC. 5.2M pop. 2 P5. 2.6M per P5.
24. AL. 5.0M pop. 2 P5. 2.5M per P5.
25. LA. 4.6M pop. 1 P5. 4.6M per P5.
26. KY. 4.5M pop. 2 P5. 2.3M per P5.
27. OR. 4.2M pop. 2 P5. 2.1M per P5.
28. OK. 4.0M pop. 2 P5. 2.0M per P5.
29. CT. 3.6M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
30. UT. 3.3M pop. 2 P5. 1.7M per P5.
31. IA. 3.2M pop. 2 P5. 1.6M per P5.
32. NV. 3.1M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
33. AR. 3.0M pop. 1 P5. 3.0M per P5.
34. MS. 2.9M pop. 2 P5. 1.5M per P5.
35. KS. 2.9M pop. 2 P5. 1.5M per P5.
36. NM. 2.1M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
37. NE. 2.0M pop. 1 P5. 2.0M per P5.
38. ID. 1.9M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
39. WV. 1.8M pop. 1 P5. 1.8M per P5.
40. HI. 1.4M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
41. NH. 1.4M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
42. MN. 1.4M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
43. RI. 1.1M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
44. MT. 1.1M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
45. DE. 1.0M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
46. SD. 0.9M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
47. ND. 0.8M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
48. AK. 0.7M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
49. VT. 0.6M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
50. WY. 0.6M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.

Taking the above, here's what the Pac expansion possibilities would bring in state population.

SDSU: 7.8M by itself; 6.5M with FSU.
FSU: 7.8M by itself; 6.5M with SDSU.
SMU: 4.2M by itself; 3.7M with UTSA.
UTSA: 4.2M by itself; 3.7M with SMU.
UNLV: 3.1M
CSU: 2.9M, but it splits a Pac market.
UNM: 2.1M
BSU: 1.9M

The above are raw numbers. Then you'd have to look at home metro and what share of the market care about college sports + what share of the P5 pie they would get + national appeal (which dramatically inflates a Notre Dame, for example).

Based on this, I think a Pac-12 which added SDSU and FSU would be the way to go. For a Pac-14, SMU and UNLV are the next 2. I don't see going past that.
Click to expand...

Outside of the South (includes TX and OK) and parts of the Midwest, the consistent interest in college football is very dicey.
 
PAHIBuff said:
Outside of the South (includes TX and OK) and parts of the Midwest, the consistent interest in college football is very dicey.
Click to expand...

That's why I said basketball needs to be more of a focus in this expansion push. SDSU is a great addition. I'm not as sold on UNLV as I would be in the past since there could be a NBA team in Sin City before long.
 
PAC MAN said:
That's why I said basketball needs to be more of a focus in this expansion push. SDSU is a great addition. I'm not as sold on UNLV as I would be in the past since there could be a NBA team in Sin City before long.
Click to expand...
I love basketball, it's my favorite sport by far. Basketball is almost completely irrelevant in this discussion. The Big East is THE major basketball conference without football, with more valuable brands than SDSU. Their Fox Media deal pays $4.6 million per school annually. AKA chump change.
 
torero said:
I love basketball, it's my favorite sport by far. Basketball is almost completely irrelevant in this discussion. The Big East is THE major basketball conference without football, with more valuable brands than SDSU. Their Fox Media deal pays $4.6 million per school annually. AKA chump change.
Click to expand...

www.espn.com

Sources: Gonzaga in talks on joining Big 12

Gonzaga is in talks with the Big 12 about the possibility of joining the conference, sources told ESPN.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

Gonzaga in talks with Big 12.
 
PAC MAN said:
I think people here were under the belief that the P12 wasn't going to offer non-football membership.
Click to expand...
Football is where the money is. I get that, but the Big 12 is being creative in muscling in on the western footprint. PAC 12 seems to get caught flat-footed. There is still time to come up with some winning formula, but I have my doubts.
 
wilner has been a lot more bold and upbeat lately... seems to think the pac is going to land a deal as good or better that b12 with a streaming service and covering the lower tier rights and other sports too.

also, the cal regents are meeting about ucla soon--- that would be a huge win if they are forced to stay. add just sdsu and roll.
 
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Liver said:
wilner has been a lot more bold and upbeat lately... seems to think the pac is going to land a deal as good or better that b12 with a streaming service and covering the lower tier rights and other sports too.

also, the cal regents are meeting about ucla soon--- that would be a huge win if they are forced to stay. add just sdsu and roll.
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1) A deal that's equivalent to the Big XII but relegated to streaming would suck. Exposure for the conference would plummet.
2) I'd bet my left nut ("Lefty", as he is known) that the regents ain't blocking UCLA
 
Creebuzz said:
I mentioned in jest a few months ago, but the play for the PAC really is to try and dominate two time zones by poaching the remaining key football schools in the mountain and pacific time zones. SDSU, UNLV, and Boise State are definitely the ones that make sense. That would kill the Mountain West conference and I think New Mexico and Hawaii might consider dropping football altogether.

I would also bar any member in the PAC 12 from playing USC and UCLA in ANY sport. Freeze them out. Make it painful on UCLA.

I’m not sure if it would work, but I’d explore expansion on the the basketball only side to include St. Mary’s and Gonzaga, and New Mexico if they dropped football.
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Grrrr
 
If the PAC was aggressive, this is how I’d operate:

1. Cut a deal with UCLA to stay. Pay them a sign on bonus to remain, out of the TV money with a new contract. Gets UCLA out of a fiscal mess and solves a political headache for them
2. Snag SDSU to fill in for USC, who gets the deep freeze from everyone regionally
3. Raid Big 12 for best four members, offering a bigger payout than the big 12 because you just secured the SoCal market with UCLA and sdsu
4. Snag several basketball only schools
 
Gonzaga would be a weird move for the Big 12. It seems like everything else they've done has been about long-term stability. Road trips to Spokane & the Zags traveling like crazy doesn't seem sustainable to me.

I thought if the Zags did it and made that travel sacrifice, it would be through the Big East since those are all similar type colleges.

St. Louis + Gonzaga (private Catholic unis) was the expansion I was expecting as most likely.
 
BerkeleyBuff said:
1) A deal that's equivalent to the Big XII but relegated to streaming would suck. Exposure for the conference would plummet.
2) I'd bet my left nut ("Lefty", as he is known) that the regents ain't blocking UCLA
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There are 5 pac teams in the rankings. An all streaming deal is far from first choice but if we get paid right it might be ok. We have no program bargaining power right now. Continued access to the playoffs with revenue that matches everyone not in the sec or big is the best we can hope for.

and we dont have to get in bed with Baylor and the like.

not my preference by a huge margin but far better than we deserve at this point.

I agree about ucla but I can dream.
 
Buffnik said:
Part of my thinking is that much of the P5 is there due to traditional affiliation and not based on maximizing media value with respect to current US population.

When considering that, the Pac taking a strategy of bringing up some G5 and owning the west has some merit.

Since I don't feel like working, I decided to play with state population and the number of P5 programs per capita within those states.

While there are certainly other factors which matter besides in-state population such as national brand, I think that playing in a P5 conference and winning/getting ranked quickly changes that. So I'm thinking in terms of where you might make bets that the elevated G5 has the resources to turn into a significant asset.

1. CA. 39.2M pop. 4 P5. 9.8M per P5.
2. TX. 29.5M pop. 6 P5. 4.9M per P5.
3. FL. 21.8M pop. 4 P5. 5.5M per P5.
4. NY. 19.8M pop. 1 P5. 19.8M per P5.
5. PA. 13.0M pop. 2 P5. 6.5M per P5.
6. IL. 12.7M pop. 2 P5. 6.5M per P5.
7. OH. 11.8M pop. 2 P5. 5.9M per P5.
8. GA. 10.8M pop. 2 P5. 5.4M per P5.
9. NC. 10.6M pop. 4 P5. 2.7M per P5.
10. MI. 10.1M pop. 2 P5. 5.1M per P5.
11. NJ. 9.3M pop. 1 P5. 9.3M per P5.
12. VA. 8.6M pop. 2 P5. 4.3M per P5.
13. WA. 7.7M pop. 2 P5. 3.9M per P5.
14. AZ. 7.3M pop. 2 P5. 3.7M per P5.
15. MA. 7.0M pop. 1 P5. 7.0M per P5.
16. TN. 7.0M pop. 2 P5. 3.5M per P5.
17. IN. 6.8M pop. 3 P5. 2.3M per P5.
18. MO. 6.2M pop. 1 P5. 6.2M per P5.
19. MD. 6.2M pop (6.9M w DC). 6.2-6.9M per P5.
20. WI. 5.9M pop. 1 P5. 5.9M per P5.
21. CO. 5.8M pop. 1 P5. 5.8 M per P5.
22. MN. 5.7M pop. 1 P5. 5.7M per P5.
23. SC. 5.2M pop. 2 P5. 2.6M per P5.
24. AL. 5.0M pop. 2 P5. 2.5M per P5.
25. LA. 4.6M pop. 1 P5. 4.6M per P5.
26. KY. 4.5M pop. 2 P5. 2.3M per P5.
27. OR. 4.2M pop. 2 P5. 2.1M per P5.
28. OK. 4.0M pop. 2 P5. 2.0M per P5.
29. CT. 3.6M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
30. UT. 3.3M pop. 2 P5. 1.7M per P5.
31. IA. 3.2M pop. 2 P5. 1.6M per P5.
32. NV. 3.1M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
33. AR. 3.0M pop. 1 P5. 3.0M per P5.
34. MS. 2.9M pop. 2 P5. 1.5M per P5.
35. KS. 2.9M pop. 2 P5. 1.5M per P5.
36. NM. 2.1M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
37. NE. 2.0M pop. 1 P5. 2.0M per P5.
38. ID. 1.9M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
39. WV. 1.8M pop. 1 P5. 1.8M per P5.
40. HI. 1.4M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
41. NH. 1.4M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
42. MN. 1.4M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
43. RI. 1.1M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
44. MT. 1.1M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
45. DE. 1.0M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
46. SD. 0.9M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
47. ND. 0.8M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
48. AK. 0.7M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
49. VT. 0.6M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.
50. WY. 0.6M pop. 0 P5. N/A per P5.

Taking the above, here's what the Pac expansion possibilities would bring in state population.

SDSU: 7.8M by itself; 6.5M with FSU.
FSU: 7.8M by itself; 6.5M with SDSU.
SMU: 4.2M by itself; 3.7M with UTSA.
UTSA: 4.2M by itself; 3.7M with SMU.
UNLV: 3.1M
CSU: 2.9M, but it splits a Pac market.
UNM: 2.1M
BSU: 1.9M

The above are raw numbers. Then you'd have to look at home metro and what share of the market care about college sports + what share of the P5 pie they would get + national appeal (which dramatically inflates a Notre Dame, for example).

Based on this, I think a Pac-12 which added SDSU and FSU would be the way to go. For a Pac-14, SMU and UNLV are the next 2. I don't see going past that.
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As a Mainer I feel obligated to point out the abbreviation is ME. Napoleon syndrome at the state level.
 
torero said:
I love basketball, it's my favorite sport by far. Basketball is almost completely irrelevant in this discussion. The Big East is THE major basketball conference without football, with more valuable brands than SDSU. Their Fox Media deal pays $4.6 million per school annually. AKA chump change.
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A voice of the round ball...$4.6 Mill a yr for a sport that doesn't pull the train. There was a time when the Pit @ UNM was must watch TV.
 
Every totero post makes me automatically think of Otero Juco in La Junta...funny thing is there's no real history of b-ball success...Otero has produced some really good baseball players...shameless plug for CU Baseball
 
Always BUFF said:
Every totero post makes me automatically think of Otero Juco in La Junta...funny thing is there's no real history of b-ball success...Otero has produced some really good baseball players...shameless plug for CU Baseball
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a hundred and fifty or so years ago, i played in a pickup game against a dude from there... i got abused in every possible way--- he was stronger, bigger, faster, more athletic, and better at bb than i could ever hope to be. but, i do agree about otero... i think i probably still carry some emotional scars.
 
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