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College Football Realignment

Liver said:
a hundred and fifty or so years ago, i played in a pickup game against a dude from there... i got abused in every possible way--- he was stronger, bigger, faster, more athletic, and better at bb than i could ever hope to be. but, i do agree about otero... i think i probably still carry some emotional scars.
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Not quite 150 yrs ago...growing up in La Junta in my time b-ball was an afterthought there were 2 seasons football & baseball.
Given your probably younger than I am...I watched Tippy Martinez & Joe Duanes play in their high school days before I was 12
 
On the UCLA situation, I have to wonder what their math looks like if they stayed. Trading USC for SDSU, how large is the P12 media deal? Is there a way, when looking at that number along with cost savings, where the Pac-12 could offer a guaranteed minimum which took the finances out of the equation and made sense for the Bruins to stay?
 
Buffnik said:
On the UCLA situation, I have to wonder what their math looks like if they stayed. Trading USC for SDSU, how large is the P12 media deal? Is there a way, when looking at that number along with cost savings, where the Pac-12 could offer a guaranteed minimum which took the finances out of the equation and made sense for the Bruins to stay?
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If the guaranteed minimum is anything less than about $60-$70m/year, it doesn't make sense for them, and if the Pac 12 makes that concession to keep them, it certainly won't make sense for any of the other 11 programs.
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
If the guaranteed minimum is anything less than about $60-$70m/year, it doesn't make sense for them, and if the Pac 12 makes that concession to keep them, it certainly won't make sense for any of the other 11 programs.
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That would be my assumption, too. But Commish K has been making bold statements on the numbers so he should present something along these lines if he's talking reality rather than blowing smoke & playing PR games.
 
Buffnik said:
That would be my assumption, too. But Commish K has been making bold statements on the numbers so he should present something along these lines if he's talking reality rather than blowing smoke & playing PR games.
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The problem is that neither Oregon or Washington are all of the sudden going to want to stay in the conference just because UCLA stays and neither of them are going to be OK with reducing their payouts to keep them.

You'd basically have to go to the bottom feeders with no options like Oregon State and Washington State (ironically, CU isn't part of that), along with SDSU and say, "sorry, but we need part of your cut to keep UCLA happy" and have uneven rev share, but then you'd also probably have to give Oregon and Washington the same amount as well.

If UCLA staying brought total number per year to a very generous $450m (for the sake of argument), that works out to $37.5m/per school, at which point, you'd probably have to give UCLA, Oregon, and Washington $50m/each at the very least, but probably more, which leaves about $33.3m for the remaining 9 schools, and I think that's the most optimistic hypothetical. In all likelihood, it would probably take something like $60m/year for UCLA to stay, which would leave $30m for the rest of the programs and I don't think any of the other 9 (except for SDSU) would sign that and fall $30m/year behind 3 of their own conference members.
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
The problem is that neither Oregon or Washington are all of the sudden going to want to stay in the conference just because UCLA stays and neither of them are going to be OK with reducing their payouts to keep them.

You'd basically have to go to the bottom feeders with no options like Oregon State and Washington State (ironically, CU isn't part of that), along with SDSU and say, "sorry, but we need part of your cut to keep UCLA happy" and have uneven rev share, but then you'd also probably have to give Oregon and Washington the same amount as well.

If UCLA staying brought total number per year to a very generous $450m (for the sake of argument), that works out to $37.5m/per school, at which point, you'd probably have to give UCLA, Oregon, and Washington $50m/each at the very least, but probably more, which leaves about $33.3m for the remaining 9 schools, and I think that's the most optimistic hypothetical. In all likelihood, it would probably take something like $60m/year for UCLA to stay, which would leave $30m for the rest of the programs and I don't think any of the other 9 (except for SDSU) would sign that and fall $30m/year behind 3 of their own conference members.
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Probably. We're guessing at numbers for the most part, though. K needs to lay out his cards to UCLA if there's a way to eliminate the financial reason for changing conferences. I don't believe it's there, but he keeps saying it is.
 
If UCLA ends up staying, the B1G could contact Stanford and if Stanford accepts, that could mean Norte Dame isn't far behind.
 
If you retain UCLA, add SDSU, and then snag top 4 big 12, the value goes up substantially for that 16 team PAC 12. It would leave either ESPN or Fox with little programming in the entire western half of the country.

A $1 bottle of water becomes a $10 bottle in the desert.

The media companies have the schools acting like desperate independent contractors. The pac 12 should be acting like a cartel to cut off whole regions. That is how you win.
 
Creebuzz said:
If you retain UCLA, add SDSU, and then snag top 4 big 12, the value goes up substantially for that 16 team PAC 12. It would leave either ESPN or Fox with little programming in the entire western half of the country.

A $1 bottle of water becomes a $10 bottle in the desert.

The media companies have the schools acting like desperate independent contractors. The pac 12 should be acting like a cartel to cut off whole regions. That is how you win.
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If that was the plan, I think BYU would be a must add to ensure that conference gets nothing beyond CTZ, along with getting the Holy War rivalry game. On top of that, go get TCU, OSU and KU.
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
If that was the plan, I think BYU would be a must add to ensure that conference gets nothing beyond CTZ, along with getting the Holy War rivalry game. On top of that, go get TCU, OSU and KU.
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Yes, I agree. There would be debate over some schools, but the ones you don’t want are UCF, Cincinnati, West Virginia because Fox and ESPN already have programming in those areas.
 
Paying one member substantially more than the others is a recipe for disaster. I can see allowing them to keep more of their tier 3 rights, but beyond that, you’re really playing with fire if you guarantee one school a significant amount more than the rest of the conference.
 
if ucla gets held up and oregon or uw or stanford get a replacement bid, it is still a big net win for us and the pac.

sdsu feels like a no-brainer as one of the 2 we would need to add. go with the biggest western market out there... whatever that is by however these guys are calculating ****. there are many worse results for CU than this one.
 
Not a great team this year, but likely a bowl team, and they are already offering deeply discounted ticket prices for their remaining games at their brand new stadium that holds 35k people.

 
CarolinaBuff said:
Sounds like Pac12 material!
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Nobody actually cares about Stanford football, but they're a "big brand" for some reason, so they are attractive to the B1G.

Nobody actually cares about SDSU football, and they're a small brand (non existent brand if we're being honest), but they're also somehow attractive for the Pac 12 and Big 12. This is because all the households in SD that aren't going to games and don't turn on the TV to watch?
 
The BYU move to the B12 hasn’t happened yet. If we want to be aggressive, we go get them in the P12 along with (SDSU/Fresno/UNLV/Boise).
If by some miracle UCLA stays, just get BYU and then renegotiate the media contract. BYU isn’t a complete replacement for USC, but it’s a lot better than the other schools that have been named.
 
Not Sure said:
The BYU move to the B12 hasn’t happened yet. If we want to be aggressive, we go get them in the P12 along with (SDSU/Fresno/UNLV/Boise).
If by some miracle UCLA stays, just get BYU and then renegotiate the media contract. BYU isn’t a complete replacement for USC, but it’s a lot better than the other schools that have been named.
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I think the better play is BYU and then try to take OSU, TCU and KU. At that point, the Big 12 would be reduced to a G5 conference with no MTZ or PTZ presence and their top brands being taken. They could try to raid the Mountain West and take SDSU, Fresno, UNLV, Boise, but without OSU, TCU and KU, I don't think that conference moves the needle much.
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
Not a great team this year, but likely a bowl team, and they are already offering deeply discounted ticket prices for their remaining games at their brand new stadium that holds 35k people.

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just checked. tickets start at $40 / each before fees.

I'm shocked SDSU was getting anyone to pay $80 or more for a game.
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
Not a great team this year, but likely a bowl team, and they are already offering deeply discounted ticket prices for their remaining games at their brand new stadium that holds 35k people.

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Tickets for Saturday’s Mountain West game against UNLV that were priced from $78 to $103 are now $50 and tickets priced from $128 to $203 are now $75 (not including service charges).

Those were kind of pricey to watch UNLV.
 
sdsu is investment spending to try to break through. their donors are energized and their administration appears unified to make things happen. the seat prices reflect that aspirational thinking. ****, they just added a phd program (first time a cal state school has been allowed to do that) and that eliminates one of the perceived barriers to being considered pac worthy.

also, it is not at all certain that the big will feel the need to pull a partner for usc if ucla gets held back. sure, oregon and others will go begging for the invite, but no replacement from the pac is going to be as accretive as locking down the entire LA market.

i think maybe they stand pat at an uneven number and wait to see how things further shake out.

pac with the current cast of characters less usc and with ucla/sdsu is interesting. it would actually be pretty fun and the path to the playoff is a whole lot better than either the sec or the big.

i hope the regents listen to bill walton. heh.
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
I think the better play is BYU and then try to take OSU, TCU and KU. At that point, the Big 12 would be reduced to a G5 conference with no MTZ or PTZ presence and their top brands being taken. They could try to raid the Mountain West and take SDSU, Fresno, UNLV, Boise, but without OSU, TCU and KU, I don't think that conference moves the needle much.
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That would be a better play. It also is a lot tougher to pull off. BYU isn’t actually a member of the B12 yet. Those other teams are.
 
Not Sure said:
The BYU move to the B12 hasn’t happened yet. If we want to be aggressive, we go get them in the P12 along with (SDSU/Fresno/UNLV/Boise).
If by some miracle UCLA stays, just get BYU and then renegotiate the media contract. BYU isn’t a complete replacement for USC, but it’s a lot better than the other schools that have been named.
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The other thing is that if UCLA stayed and Stanford left with USC, we'd have no private schools. That would mean no ability for the Pac to keep its full books out of public disclosures. BYU (or SMU) become extra valuable in that scenario.
 
Buffnik said:
The other thing is that if UCLA stayed and Stanford left with USC, we'd have no private schools. That would mean no ability for the Pac to keep its full books out of public disclosures. BYU (or SMU) become extra valuable in that scenario.
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I've read that on message boards previously but I've never seen a source explaining what that really means.

can you cite any sources that explain, for example, what bookkeeping the Pac can legally remain opaque about today that the MWC cannot?
 
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