CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

[Buffnik]

That format is 100% a massive win for Big 12 and ACC and irrelevant for B1G and SEC.

Option A is 12 teams, 1 B12 auto bid, 7 chances for an at-large.
Option B is 14 teams, 2 B12 auto bids, 3 chances for an at-large.

I'm not sure that the math is any more than a wash on opportunities per year. It limits both upside and downside for the Big 12. But what Option B does do is make it so that a higher percentage of playoff revenue is likely to go to the Power 4 programs by only allowing the G5 3 shots at getting 2 teams instead of 7 shots - plus a payout divided into 14 instead of 12 so the G5 is likely to get less of a share. Option B is very likely to be accepted imo.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Based on this years final CFP rankings, a 14 team playoff with a 3-3-2-2-1 + 3 format would have been:

1. Michigan - B1G1 (Bye)
2. Alabama - SEC1 (Bye)

3. Washington - B1G2
vs
14. Penn State - B1G At Large

4. Texas - SEC2
vs
13. Mizzou - B1G At Large

5. FSU - ACC1
vs
12. Oregon - B1G At Large

6. Georgia - SEC3
vs
11. Liberty - G51

7. Ohio State - B1G3
vs
10. Oklahoma State - Big 122

8. Arizona - Big 121
vs
9. Louisville - ACC2

"Snubs" - #11 Ole Miss, #12 Oklahoma, #13 LSU

This assumes that the Auto bids from each conference all get higher seeds than any At Large team. The area I'm unsure about is conference champs. Do ACC and Big 12 conference champs get seeding preference over the SEC/B1G #2?

 

[Darth Snow]

Conference championship games are about to be much less important

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Option A is 12 teams, 1 B12 auto bid, 7 chances for an at-large.
Option B is 14 teams, 2 B12 auto bids, 3 chances for an at-large.

I'm not sure that the math is any more than a wash on opportunities per year. It limits both upside and downside for the Big 12. But what Option B does do is make it so that a higher percentage of playoff revenue is likely to go to the Power 4 programs by only allowing the G5 3 shots at getting 2 teams instead of 7 shots - plus a payout divided into 14 instead of 12 so the G5 is likely to get less of a share. Option B is very likely to be accepted imo.

I think more at large bids are highly favorable to the B1G and SEC, so even though there would technically be more chances for the Big 12 in Option A, it's unlikely to matter as it plays out. Next year's Big 12 had one team in the top 14 of this year's rankings (Arizona) and only 3 in the top 25. SEC and B1G programs took all 3 at large bids and they would have taken the next 3 as well if there were more spots.

Option B guarantees that two Big 12 teams get in and if there's a year in which there are 3 high end teams, they have a chance at getting an At Large as well.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Conference championship games are about to be much less important

I'd imagine the top 2 that get a Bye will have to be conference champs, and then I wonder about other seeding formats where the Big 12 and ACC conference champs get seeds 3 and 4. That would make for huge incentives to win your conference.

 

[BerkeleyBuff]

That format is 100% a massive win for Big 12 and ACC and irrelevant for B1G and SEC.

This is correct

 

[Denver_sc]

That format is 100% a massive win for Big 12 and ACC and irrelevant for B1G and SEC.

Not entirely true. The first part (massive win for B12 and ACC) is 100% true, but it would cost B1G and SEC.

I went through the past several years and looked at the final rankings here and here under the previously proposed "4 autobids each for the SEC/B1G, 1 autobid each for ACC/B12, and 1 G5 autobid, 3 at large". Changes if they move to this format:

• 2023:
  • #15 Louisville (ACC) and #20 Oklahoma State (B12) would be in
  • #11 Ole Miss (SEC) and #12 Oklahoma (SEC) would be out
• 2022:
  • #13 FSU (ACC) would be in
  • #16 LSU (SEC) would be out
• 2021:
  • #17 Wake Forest (ACC) would be in
  • #15 Oregon (B1G) would be out
• 2019:
  • #21 Cincinnati (ACC) would be in
  • #13 Alabama (SEC) would be out
• 2018:
  • #16 WVU (B12) and #20 Syracuse (ACC) would be in
  • #13 Kentucky (SEC) and #12 Penn State (B1G) would be out
• 2017:
  • #19 Oklahoma State (B12) would be in
  • #13 Stanford (ACC) would be out
• 2016:
  • #12 Oklahoma State (B12) would be in
  • #17 Florida (SEC) would be out

So, the change in format would result in the ACC gaining 5 bids and losing out on 1, the B12 would gain 4 and lose none, the SEC would lose 6 bids, and the B1G would lose 2.

 

[skibum]

So, the change in format would result in the ACC gaining 5 bids and losing out on 1, the B12 would gain 4 and lose none, the SEC would lose 6 bids, and the B1G would lose 2.

In re they bolded: Seems about right for their general level of overratedness.

 

[Big Jim]

Based on this years final CFP rankings, a 14 team playoff with a 3-3-2-2-1 + 3 format would have been:



5. FSU - ACC1
vs
12. Oregon - B1G At Large

Unpossible. @hawg1 has assured us that FSU will never fit the protocol.

 

[Buffnik]

In re they bolded: Seems about right for their general level of overratedness.

You all will probably put me on blast for this, but I think the SEC is actually underrated.

In the BCS & CFP era which began in 1998, we've got 26 national champions.

SEC current members have 15 of them. With new members OU & UT, that goes up to 17. And it is from 8 different schools - half the conference has won a natty in this era.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Not entirely true. The first part (massive win for B12 and ACC) is 100% true, but it would cost B1G and SEC.

I went through the past several years and looked at the final rankings here and here under the previously proposed "4 autobids each for the SEC/B1G, 1 autobid each for ACC/B12, and 1 G5 autobid, 3 at large". Changes if they move to this format:

• 2023:
  • #15 Louisville (ACC) and #20 Oklahoma State (B12) would be in
  • #11 Ole Miss (SEC) and #12 Oklahoma (SEC) would be out
• 2022:
  • #13 FSU (ACC) would be in
  • #16 LSU (SEC) would be out
• 2021:
  • #17 Wake Forest (ACC) would be in
  • #15 Oregon (B1G) would be out
• 2019:
  • #21 Cincinnati (ACC) would be in
  • #13 Alabama (SEC) would be out
• 2018:
  • #16 WVU (B12) and #20 Syracuse (ACC) would be in
  • #13 Kentucky (SEC) and #12 Penn State (B1G) would be out
• 2017:
  • #19 Oklahoma State (B12) would be in
  • #13 Stanford (ACC) would be out
• 2016:
  • #12 Oklahoma State (B12) would be in
  • #17 Florida (SEC) would be out

So, the change in format would result in the ACC gaining 5 bids and losing out on 1, the B12 would gain 4 and lose none, the SEC would lose 6 bids, and the B1G would lose 2.

Oh for sure, going from the 4 autobids to 3 obviously hurts them, but I don't think the 4 autobids was ever going to happen (at least right now). I'm just saying generally, going from the current 12 team format of only 5 autobids and 7 at large to 3-3-2-2-1 + 3 is mostly irrelevant for the B1G and SEC but helps ACC and Big 12. The B1G and SEC were going to get the vast majority, if not all, of the 7 autobids, so if you split those 8-9 spots across both conferences, each conference would likely get around 4 playoff teams, which is exactly what they are going to get in the 3-3-2-2-1 + 3 format.

 

[skibum]

You all will probably put me on blast for this, but I think the SEC is actually underrated.

In the BCS & CFP era which began in 1998, we've got 26 national champions.

SEC current members have 15 of them. With new members OU & UT, that goes up to 17. And it is from 8 different schools - half the conference has won a natty in this era.

I don't disagree that their teams at the very top are quite good, but I generally feel like too many of their teams get the Notre Dame treatment: assume they're really good until proven otherwise.

Sure, one out of every six years or so, ND ultimately deserves their pre season ranking, and another one or two maybe kinda sorta, but three of the six they're just flat out overrated.

Instead of one team over six years to generate our population of data, with the SEC we have 6 teams every year. One of them is definitely worthy, two others sort of are, but the other three, not so much.

 

[Robert Sorell]

Not entirely true. The first part (massive win for B12 and ACC) is 100% true, but it would cost B1G and SEC.

I went through the past several years and looked at the final rankings here and here under the previously proposed "4 autobids each for the SEC/B1G, 1 autobid each for ACC/B12, and 1 G5 autobid, 3 at large". Changes if they move to this format:

• 2023:
  • #15 Louisville (ACC) and #20 Oklahoma State (B12) would be in
  • #11 Ole Miss (SEC) and #12 Oklahoma (SEC) would be out
• 2022:
  • #13 FSU (ACC) would be in
  • #16 LSU (SEC) would be out
• 2021:
  • #17 Wake Forest (ACC) would be in
  • #15 Oregon (B1G) would be out
• 2019:
  • #21 Cincinnati (ACC) would be in
  • #13 Alabama (SEC) would be out
• 2018:
  • #16 WVU (B12) and #20 Syracuse (ACC) would be in
  • #13 Kentucky (SEC) and #12 Penn State (B1G) would be out
• 2017:
  • #19 Oklahoma State (B12) would be in
  • #13 Stanford (ACC) would be out
• 2016:
  • #12 Oklahoma State (B12) would be in
  • #17 Florida (SEC) would be out

So, the change in format would result in the ACC gaining 5 bids and losing out on 1, the B12 would gain 4 and lose none, the SEC would lose 6 bids, and the B1G would lose 2.

Again, this exercise is fundamentally flawed. The realignment fundamentally shifts schedules, and will shift the rankings.

 

[4BienemyTDs]

Looking backwards has no value because I do not think that the other conferences will actually compete with the P2 at the same level. They will have more money and clout to have better facilities, better coaching staffs, better NIL (if it stays the way it is), better game slots and TV exposure, and thus better rosters. Like the Open Cups in soccer it will be cinderella situations. The CFP is so dumb and is not a real college football playoff. This is a distraction from armageddon.

 

[Denver_sc]

Again, this exercise is fundamentally flawed. The realignment fundamentally shifts schedules, and will shift the rankings.

Look, I acknowledge that, but I don't see a better way to imagine what else this might look like. My point is that, given the makeup of the SEC and B1G going forward, it's exceedingly likely that guaranteeing the ACC and B12 a second autobid works against the SEC and B1G a lot more often than it would work for them.

 

[Highlander]

I’d rather be in the B12 with 2 AQs than the B1G or SEC w/ 3 AQs in the near term.

That’s a huge win.

2 AQs could save the ACC, too, but they still need to fix their TV contract.

 

[Buffnik]

Cowherd's take on going to a 14-team model matches mine. His bias is toward getting more big games. So he'd rather see 7 big brands vs 7 big brands than see a focus on protecting bowl games and small programs that he doesn't care about watching unless a big brand dragging it along with its coattails.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Cowherd's take on going to a 14-team model matches mine. His bias is toward getting more big games. So he'd rather see 7 big brands vs 7 big brands than see a focus on protecting bowl games and small programs that he doesn't care about watching unless a big brand dragging it along with its coattails.

So what's his stance on the 14 team model then?

 

[4BienemyTDs]

IF, and this is an if, Colorado with a Coach Prime must strive to be the big dog in the Big12 and always get one of the 2 AQ spots. Full commitment

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Will the two Auto Qualifiers from the ACC and Big 12 just be the two teams that play in the CCG? Then the winner gets a top 4 or 5 seed, while the loser is subject to being seeded wherever they are ranked?

Will At Large bids be able to be seeded ahead of AQ from other conferences?

 

[CarolinaBuff]

I’d rather be in the B12 with 2 AQs than the B1G or SEC w/ 3 AQs in the near term.

That’s a huge win.

2 AQs could save the ACC, too, but they still need to fix their TV contract.

This is more of an insurance for the B1G and SEC that they'll get the guaranteed 3 spots even in those rare years where they would typically only get 2 in if their only guarantee was the conference champ. And if either conference has more than 3 deserving teams there's still the 3 at large spots, or 2 if ND takes ones of them.

The downside of a system like this is when you get a year like 2019 where #24 Virginia would get in.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

This is more of an insurance for the B1G and SEC that they'll get the guaranteed 3 spots even in those rare years where they would typically only get 2 in if their only guarantee was the conference champ. And if either conference has more than 3 deserving teams there's still the 3 at large spots, or 2 if ND takes ones of them.

The downside of a system like this is when you get a year like 2019 where #24 Virginia would get in.

With USC, Oregon and Washington in the B1G and Texas and OU in the SEC, I don't ever see a year where each conference would be sending fewer than 3 programs, so if this is insurance for the B1G and SEC to ensure they get 3 teams in, that's like hurricane insurance on a house in Colorado.

Notre Dame is the team that's screwed the most. They could be a top 12-14 team in the country that easily gets left out, just like #11 Ole Miss, #12 OU, and #13 LSU would have been this past year.

Also, last year would have seen #20 Oklahoma State make it.

It's not a perfect system, but it ensures that every team in a power conference has a legitimate path.

 

[CarolinaBuff]

Will the two Auto Qualifiers from the ACC and Big 12 just be the two teams that play in the CCG? Then the winner gets a top 4 or 5 seed, while the loser is subject to being seeded wherever they are ranked?

Will At Large bids be able to be seeded ahead of AQ from other conferences?

To your first paragraph, I would think that the 2 AQ teams for the ACC and Big 12 would be the 2 highest ranked teams after the CCG, so it's quite feasible that the loser of the CCG could get left out if they do it this way.

To the 2nd paragraph, I would doubt that the the top 5 conference champs would be seeded 1-5. The likely format would be the top 2 conference champs get the 1-2 seeds and a bye, while the next 2 highest ranked conference champs gets seeds 3 and 4. After that the remaining 10 seeds would just be in order of where they finish in the CFP rankings.

 

[CarolinaBuff]

With USC, Oregon and Washington in the B1G and Texas and OU in the SEC, I don't ever see a year where each conference would be sending fewer than 3 programs, so if this is insurance for the B1G and SEC to ensure they get 3 teams in, that's like hurricane insurance on a house in Colorado.

Notre Dame is the team that's screwed the most. They could be a top 12-14 team in the country that easily gets left out, just like #11 Ole Miss, #12 OU, and #13 LSU would have been this past year.

Also, last year would have seen #20 Oklahoma State make it.

It's not a perfect system, but it ensures that every team in a power conference has a legitimate path.

Yea I guess that's true about the SEC and B1G, I wasn't taking into account the new power programs they both added.

As for ND, they are guaranteed a spot if they finish in the top 14 of the rankings.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

To your first paragraph, I would think that the 2 AQ teams for the ACC and Big 12 would be the 2 highest ranked teams after the CCG, so it's quite feasible that the loser of the CCG could get left out if they do it this way.

To the 2nd paragraph, I would doubt that the the top 5 conference champs would be seeded 1-5. The likely format would be the top 2 conference champs get the 1-2 seeds and a bye, while the next 2 highest ranked conference champs gets seeds 3 and 4. After that the remaining 10 seeds would just be in order of where they finish in the CFP rankings.

I don't think they can give 5 autobids but then say only the top 4 get seeds 1-4, especially because there aren't 4 byes. I mean, they certainly could, but that would seem fairly arbitrary.

As for the first part, I think that would really create a bad precedent where, in a divisionless conference, a team that wasn't good enough to play for it's conference title gets the nod over the losing team that was. Punishing a team for playing in the CCG just doesn't seem like the best idea.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

As for ND, they are guaranteed a spot if they finish in the top 14 of the rankings.

Is that a specific rule that's been talked about? I must have missed it in the initial article if so.

 

[CarolinaBuff]

Is that a specific rule that's been talked about? I must have missed it in the initial article if so.

Yup, unfortunately

As for Notre Dame, sources told ESPN that the most likely option being discussed is that the Fighting Irish would earn a spot in the 14-team CFP if the selection committee ranks them in the top 14 on Selection Day.

Sources: Optimism building for 14-team CFP

There is optimism and "momentum" for a 14-team College Football Playoff starting in 2026, sources told ESPN, with an effort to reach a deal in the coming weeks.

www.espn.com

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Yup, unfortunately

Sources: Optimism building for 14-team CFP

There is optimism and "momentum" for a 14-team College Football Playoff starting in 2026, sources told ESPN, with an effort to reach a deal in the coming weeks.

www.espn.com

That's lame and basically ensures that they stay Independent, IMO. I think Notre Dame as an institution is perfectly fine not making the playoff if they are legitimately not a top 15 team in the country. You also know if it's even remotely close at the end of the season, where they are ranked anywhere between 15-18, the committee is giving them that bump and putting them in.

Only a handful of other programs in the country would get that botd.

 

[PAC MAN]

Is that a specific rule that's been talked about? I must have missed it in the initial article if so.

They will find a way to get ND into the CFP one way or the other.

With the three auto bids for the B1G & SEC each, two for the Big 12 and ACC each, ND doesn't have to join a conference after all which is the only downside to all of this.

I was iffy with the initial four team B1G & SEC autobids but this 3-3-2-2-1 set up is much better and I'm more likely to continue with CFB after all.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

Who doesnt like a rigged system? I wouldnt be surprised if its 9 to 10 teams from the B1G and SEC every year and 4 or 5 spots for everyone else