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Official 2016 Bubble Watch Thread

Seton Hall with a dominant win over Providence. Up to RPI 37, Friars down to RPI 43.

Duke handled FSU rather easily in the 2nd half. Seminoles at RPI 76.
 
Teams that should be in:California, USC
Work left to do:Oregon State, Colorado, Washington
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Colorado [20-9 (9-7), RPI: 30, SOS: 40] Colorado knocked off Arizona, and none of the court-storming students got punched by Kaleb Tarczewski: All in all, Wednesday night was a rousing success. The Buffaloes are a rare breed, in that they're both (A) probably in the tournament field as of today and (B) being outscored by their conference opponents on a per-possession basis. Recording 1 point per trip and allowing 1.02 is not exactly the best predictor for postseason success, but hey, crazier things have happened.
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All season long CBS has favored us more than ESPN.

ESPN: 10 seed
CBS: 7 seed
USA Today: 8 seed

CBS has Oregon, USC, Cal, Utah, and Oregon St all ranked as higher seeds than ESPN. Only ESPN likes Arizona better. Hard not too feel the east coast/sec bias.
 
Lunardi should've followed up his possession statement with, "though CU gets several more offensive possessions because of the beast mode rebounding with Flash Gordon and the Young Fundamental down low...!"
 
Saturday games to keep an eye on:

Cincinnati 20-8 (10-5) @ East Carolina 11-17 (3-12): Everything about Cincy's resume is mediocre. RPI is 60. They do have a sweep of fellow conference bubbler UConn up their sleeve, though. A loss to ECU would result in a bubble pop. A win won't do anything, but it will keep the Bearcats alive. Lunardi has Cincy in his "Last Four In", while Palm has them "First Four Out".

Butler 18-9 (7-8) @ Georgetown 14-14 (7-8): RPI 65. Butler is Lunardi's last team in. Palm has them as a 10 (seems too high). Butler's remaining schedule is comprised of games like this one: opponents good enough to beat them, but not good enough to result in any major changes to their resume.

Temple 17-10 (11-4) vs UCF 11-15 (5-10): RPI 57. Temple stands a good chance of being the 1 seed in the AAC Tournament (SMU ineligible). The Owls are currently seen as an 11 seed. Remaining schedule is UCF, Memphis, and Tulane. Can't drop any of those.

VCU 20-8 (12-3) @ George Washington 21-7 (10-5): RPI: GW 48, VCU 63. Double bubble. VCU is coming off a disastrous loss to George Mason which has likely knocked them out of the field for the time being (Palm has VCU "First Four Out"). George Washington also has a collection of puzzling losses to go with solid wins, also placing them as "First Four Out" in both Lunardi and Palm's brackets. Both sides desperately need this one.

Syracuse 18-10 (8-7) vs NC State 14-14 (4-11): RPI: 59. Currently seen as holding one of the final byes. Case's remaining schedule is tricky: @ UNC, @ FSU. A 1-2 finish to the regular season is likely. A loss to NCSU would be a disaster, but as long as Cuse can get another win or two between now and the selection, they'll be in.

Providence 19-9 (7-8) vs DePaul 9-18 (3-12): RPI 42. The Friars are just 2-6 since their win at Villanova. They'll fallen quite a ways from the team that cracked the top 10 in January. As long as they don't do anything stupid, they'll be fine. Remaining games are DePaul, Creighton, St. John's. They'll be in as long as they can avoid anymore horrendous losses (easier said than done for a team that has already managed to lose to DePaul this season).

St. Bonaventure 19-7 (11-4) vs UMass 12-15 (5-10): RPI 36. Palm's last team in, Lunardi's "First Four Out". It's going to come down to the wire for the Bonnies, but if they finish the regular season 3-0 (UMass, St. Joseph's, St. Louis) and have a decent A10 Tournament, they'll be in. Anything less than that and it gets extremely dicey.

Vanderbilt 17-11 (9-6) vs #16 Kentucky 21-7 (11-4): RPI 56. Vandy won at Florida to keep their hopes alive. Lunardi has Vandy "Last Four In", Palm "First Four Out". This may well be the game that determines Vandy's fate. The SEC only offers so many chances for decent wins.

Alabama 16-11 (7-8) vs Auburn 11-16 (5-10): RPI 52. The Tide need to win their remaining 3 (Auburn, Arkansas, Georgia) and have a strong SEC Tournament

Gonzaga 22-7 (14-3) vs BYU 22-8 (13-4): RPI 69. The Zags have wins over UConn and Washington to their name, and that's about it. Everything about their resume is mediocre. Gonzaga should be planning to take the auto-bid route, even with a win at BYU.

Florida 17-11 (8-7) @ LSU 16-12 (9-6): RPI 44. Gators are likely still in the field as of now, but they've dropped 3/4. LSU, Kentucky, and Missouri remain. They'd be wise to pick up a win against LSU or Kentucky and not do anything stupid against Mizzou. And I know at least one person is reading this going "BUT WAT ABOUT LSU AND BEN SIMMONS". LSU's RPI is 91. No.

St. Mary's 23-4 (14-3) @ San Francisco 15-13 (8-9): RPI 55. If St. Mary's wins, they're the regular season WCC champ. The resume is such that it gets dicey if they don't get the auto-bid. OOC they've got a win over Stanford to their name, and that's it. They've swept Gonzaga, but that doesn't carry anything close to the weight it usually does (Gonzaga's RPI is 69). St. Mary's will be right on the fence if they lose in the WCC Tournament
 
VCU wins at GW in that bubble battle.VCU up to 51. GW down to 54.

Butler with an OT win at GTown that they had to have. Butler now 59
 
FSU about to go final with a blowout win over #23 Notre Dame which will put FSU's record at 17-12 (7-10). RPI has been hovering around 70. They've got Syracuse in Tallahasee as their final regular season game. They aren't even being discussed as a bubble team right now, but I don't think you can 100% write off an ACC team that's 18-12 heading into the ACCT. The Noles would need a very impressive ACCT. They do have the talent, there's no question about that.
 
CVilleBuff said:
Vanderbilt beats #16 Kentucky. Vandy now 18-11 (10-6), RPI 46. This likely puts Vandy in the field for now
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Vandy would be a very dangerous team to come in as an 11/12. I love their pieces, but it's only been in the past few weeks I've started to like their team.
 
RPI 44 SDSU just dropped a home game to RPI 98 Boise State. Aztecs now at RPI 61. MWC will almost certainly be a 1-bid league this season, since they were the one team that could have possibly snagged an at-large bid.
 
Florida falls at LSU. Gators are another side that need to be questioned. Lunardi loves to pimp them as like a 9 seed, but they aren't. They're 17-12, have lost 4/5, and now sit at 46.
 
CVilleBuff said:
Florida falls at LSU. Gators are another side that need to be questioned. Lunardi loves to pimp them as like a 9 seed, but they aren't. They're 17-12, have lost 4/5, and now sit at 46.
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Host Kentucky on Tuesday. Might be a make or break game.
 
Seton Hall 20-7 (10-5) RPI 38 is up 19 on Xavier late in the first half. A win would certainly lock them in. Keep an eye in Seton Hall. Potential opponent for CU.
 
One question I'm interested in on Selection Sunday is: "SEC or A10?"

SEC: #6 RPI Conference with OOC win % of 66.48
A10: #7 RPI Conference with OOC win % of 65.66

SEC possible teams: #15 Kentucky, #22 Texas A&M, #40 South Carolina, #46 Florida, #52 Vanderbilt, #58 Alabama
A10 possible teams: #24 Dayton, #26 St. Joseph's, #34 St. Bonaventure, #43 VCU, #61 George Washington, #67 Davidson

Are they both 4-bid leagues? 3? ESPN and other SEC jock sniffers have been pimping them for as many as 7 or 8 (all of the above + LSU and Ole Miss or UGA -- which have RPIs in the 80s and 90s).
 
Pitt beats Duke. You can pretty much lock Pitt in for a bid now despite this only being their second top 50 win
 
Tulsa falls at a pretty poor Memphis side. Tulsa was considered to be just barely in before this, they're very likely on the wrong side of the fence now
 
USC is now 19-10 (8-8) with an RPI down to 38. They're in for now, but they're sliding. If they make a mess of things at home against OSU and UO, they could find themselves in a nervy situation.
 
Buffnik said:
One question I'm interested in on Selection Sunday is: "SEC or A10?"

SEC: #6 RPI Conference with OOC win % of 66.48
A10: #7 RPI Conference with OOC win % of 65.66

SEC possible teams: #15 Kentucky, #22 Texas A&M, #40 South Carolina, #46 Florida, #52 Vanderbilt, #58 Alabama
A10 possible teams: #24 Dayton, #26 St. Joseph's, #34 St. Bonaventure, #43 VCU, #61 George Washington, #67 Davidson

Are they both 4-bid leagues? 3? ESPN and other SEC jock sniffers have been pimping them for as many as 7 or 8 (all of the above + LSU and Ole Miss or UGA -- which have RPIs in the 80s and 90s).
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I do NOT get the SEC love this year. I think they are a very weak conference overall. Two mediocre P12 teams beat the two "best" teams in the SEC pretty handily, and all of those teams are flawed:

  • Kentucky is basically a better version of UCLA- capable of beating anyone on a neutral court, but also susceptible to head-scratching losses, especially on the road.
  • A&M has 0 quality wins outside the state of Texas, and couldn't beat ASU- something that Sacramento State did.
  • South Carolina got fat off of a weak OOC schedule and has some questionable losses- like to #210 Missouri
  • Florida has been (to put it kindly) uneven and basically their entire resume comes down the fact that they beat West Virginia and St. Joseph's
Would you take any of those teams to finish in the top 4 of the P12, Big 12, Big 10 or ACC? Maybe Kentucky.
 
Lunardi has LSU (RPI 85) as just missing out. That tells you all you need to know about where ESPN stands with the SEC
 
CVilleBuff said:
Lunardi has LSU (RPI 85) as just missing out. That tells you all you need to know about where ESPN stands with the SEC
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The second golden rule. He with the most gold gets to make the rules.

I'm this case, gold equals broadcast rights and selection politics.

Every dollar that ESPN earns by screwing over Larry Scott's P12N and the teams of the P12 is a dollar that they otherwise wouldn't have.

Those checks ESPN writes to the SEC schools don't fund themselves.
 
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