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Official CFP Selection Freakout Thread

Buffnik said:
There's a part of me that wants to see Bama win, Oregon to knock off Washington, and FSU to struggle to victory... with the Selection Committee then pissing everyone off and turning this into a farce by making it Michigan, Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia with a "our job was to pick the 4 best teams" rationale.
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You should stab that part until it dies.

EDIT: Here's to hoping it's a non-vital small part.
 
Buffalo Brad said:
I am an Iowa fan this weekend for sure. That could keep the whole Big1G out of this thing. That would be beautiful
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Between UM & OSU I think the only P5 non-conference win was OSU over Notre Dame and there isn't much positive at all on the B1G's OOC resume to elevate conference wins.
 
If Bama beats Georgia and Oregon wins a tight decision over Washington...IMO Oregon and UW should get in. Bama hasn't done enough to be in. Neither Bama or Georgia have been very impressive in a so-so SEC.

Texas should still go in over them, no matter what happens.

It's going to end up Georgia, Michigan, FSU, and the winner of UW and Oregon though.
 
Buffnik said:
That Iowa team should be 11-1 if not for getting hosed by the refs vs Minnesota. I'm not picking an upset and am not even confident of them keeping it within 2 scores, but they're a very good football team.
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Their QB completes 49% of his passes, and they can barely manage two scores a game from the offense.

They are not good. The defense is outstanding, but that team is not good. They're going to get smoked.

The fact they would have needed that miracle punt return to beat Minny shows you how good they are.
 
Imo, the committee is going place the emphasis on these criteria, in order:

1. P5
2. Record (ie, 13-0 trumps 12-1)
3. Conference champion
4. Head to head

In that case, this is my percentage chance on who gets into the playoff (should they win this weekend):

Michigan: 100%
Washington: 100%
Florida State: 100%
Georgia: 100%
Oregon: 95%
Texas: 50%
Alabama: 25%
Ohio State: 2%
Field: 0%
 
Robert Sorell said:
Far too much time on my hands, but here goes.

There's 32 possible outcomes for 5 games, I'm going to assume a Michigan and Texas win, but here's how I think the other 8 scenarios could play out.

1. Oregon, Georgia, FSU win

Should be: 1. Georgia, 2. Michigan, 3. FSU, 4. Oregon; could easily justify Texas over Oregon though.

Committee goes: 1. Georgia, 2. Michigan, 3. Oregon, 4. FSU; gives a B1G/Pac Rose Bowl semi-final prepares the Big XII for future experiences never getting an at-large bid.

2. Washington, Georgia, FSU win

Should be: 1. Georgia, 2. Michigan, 3. Washington, 4. FSU

Committee does the same; four undefeated P5 conference champs makes their lives really easy

3. Oregon, Bama, FSU win

Should be: 1. Michigan, 2. FSU, 3. Oregon, 4. Texas

Committee does: 1. Michigan, 2. Oregon, 3. Texas, 4. Bama;

Unless FSU gets a lights out game from Tate Rodemaker, then there's a small chance they do the right thing and go 1. Michigan, 2. FSU, 3. Oregon, 4. Texas

4. Oregon, Georgia, L'ville win

Should be: 1. Georgia, 2. Michigan, 3. Oregon, 4. Texas; committee does the same

5. Washington, Bama, FSU win

Should be: 1. Michigan, 2. Washington, 3. FSU, 4. Texas, as above committee maybe does this if Rodemaker has a stellar game

Committee does: 1. Michigan, 2. Washington, 3. Texas, 4. Bama

6. Washington, Georgia, L'ville win

Should be: 1. Georgia, 2. Michigan, 3. Washington, 4. Texas, committee does the same

7. Oregon, Bama, L'ville win

Should be: 1. Michigan, 2. Oregon, 3. Texas, 4. Bama, committee does the same

8. Washington, Bama, L'ville win

Should be: 1. Michigan, 2. Washington, 3. Texas, 4. Bama, committee does the same

I'm trying to think of a pathways for Ohio State; I guess the only way would be Okie Lite, Georgia, Michigan, Washington, L'ville winning which would give: 1. Georgia, 2. Michigan, 3. Washington, 4. Ohio State

Of course, all of that is probably nonsense, and somehow Bama and Georgia both end up in.
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Awesome breakdown thanks. And now I'm sold that Iowa will somehow win 😅
 
Buffnik said:
That Iowa team should be 11-1 if not for getting hosed by the refs vs Minnesota. I'm not picking an upset and am not even confident of them keeping it within 2 scores, but they're a very good football team.
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They just have no offense. They're only shot at a TD is a defensive or special teams score.
 
manhattanbuff said:
Unless the B1G fixes the game, Iowa is drawing dead.
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That's where I'm at. I believe that Iowa is a good team - legit Top 20. I'm expecting like when UM played Penn State (24-15), but PSU is better on both sides of the ball than Iowa and that was a road result in Happy Valley.
 
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Buffnik said:
That's where I'm at. I believe that Iowa is a good team - legit Top 20. I'm expecting like when UM played Penn State (24-15), but PSU is better on both sides of the ball than Iowa and that was a road result in Happy Valley.
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Plus PSU beat Iowa like 37-7.

Edit: actually it was 31-0.

Still think Iowa's only chance at points is defense or special teams.
 
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If Alabama beats Georgia - I don't see any reason why Georgia should be ahead of Alabama.
 
Hank said:
And why Georgia over Alabama?
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Bama lost at home
Georgia lost a neutral site game. And last year's championship biases the committee

Assumes the SEC game is close and assumes the committee weighs early and late season games the same.
 
Hank said:
This is brain teaser. I'm rooting for this.

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1. Michigan
2. Oregon
3. Bama
4. Georgia

Committee Comments:

1. FSU without their starting QB is not the same team. Not enough quality wins

2. Texas. Oklahoma loss looked worse as the year went on. Alabama win was early in the year
 
hokiehead said:
Bama lost at home
Georgia lost a neutral site game. And last year's championship biases the committee

Assumes the SEC game is close and assumes the committee weighs early and late season games the same.
Click to expand...

Obviously margins matter - but not a bad point.
 
Buffnik said:
That's where I'm at. I believe that Iowa is a good team - legit Top 20. I'm expecting like when UM played Penn State (24-15), but PSU is better on both sides of the ball than Iowa and that was a road result in Happy Valley.
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betting Iowa unders has been as lucrative as fading CU last year. Their offense is putrid and have a solid D. Problem is that UMich is so much more talented on their OL that they make above avg DLs look like HS teams.
 
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