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Other Games 11/12 - 11/16

CarolinaBuff said:
Not yet. Let's see how they do with Mac Jones which we won't know for 2 more weeks since next week's game is a glorified scrimmage
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I hate that mindset. Poll inertia sucks.

Straight up: is Bama a worse team with Tua out for the season?

If so, why would you wait to drop them? Just so you can wait to see them against a pretty good Auburn team? Self-fulfilling prophecy.
 
CarolinaBuff said:
Not yet. Let's see how they do with Mac Jones which we won't know for 2 more weeks since next week's game is a glorified scrimmage
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And they should be held accountable for their bye week cleverly disguised as a football game. You don't move the Pac 12 teams ahead of them Tuesday you have to next week. If they beat Auburn at JH 59-0 in 2 weeks, I'm open to listening to that. Something tells me they won't though.
 
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The ACC is so bad that it's not unreasonable for Clemson to miss the playoffs even if they win the ACC CCG.
 
I'll be shocked if anyone beats Clemson.

Too many people down on them because of the ACC competition and the fact they didn't come out of the gates looking like the same team that destroyed Bama.

But if you haven't been paying attention, Clemson has woken up and they're barely breaking a sweat to win by 40+ in recent weeks. Lawrence finally used to the WRs he has this year and those new DLs have started dominating. So much talent and the youth is growing up now.
 
Also, I think people have a perception of LSU based a lot on reputation.

Most everyone saw LSU as a team with an elite defense and crazy talent on offense -- except they couldn't ever find a QB.

So the natural reaction people have to their success this season is that all the other stuff has remained the same but LSU finally has a QB.

That take ignores a really important thing: LSU's defense is similar to what OU's been sending to the playoffs the past couple years.
 
Buffnik said:
Also, I think people have a perception of LSU based a lot on reputation.

Most everyone saw LSU as a team with an elite defense and crazy talent on offense -- except they couldn't ever find a QB.

So the natural reaction people have to their success this season is that all the other stuff has remained the same but LSU finally has a QB.

That take ignores a really important thing: LSU's defense is similar to what OU's been sending to the playoffs the past couple years.
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False. Go look at the stats. LSU is top 40 in total D. They were allowing an average of 22 a game before that Plumlee kid went off tonight. OU gave up 27 a game in 2017 and 33 last year. LSU isn't as good as theyve been defensively, but theyve scored at least 35 nine times this year.
 
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I am really hoping for an LSU v Ohio State Championship game!!! Need a break from Clemson - Alabama for a while
 
I hate that Nik is a clairvoyant.

Now I have to live with the insufferable troup of local idots who think the land thieves should be #4 in the playoff hit parade.
 
BehindEnemyLines said:
I hate that Nik is a clairvoyant.

Now I have to live with the insufferable troup of local idots who think the land thieves should be #4 in the playoff hit parade.
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As much as I'd like to see OU in the playoff, they need a lot of help to justify being there. From what we've seen since the middle of the season, OU won't stand much of a chance. But you can't win if you don't enter.
 
OUBuff said:
As much as I'd like to see OU in the playoff, they need a lot of help to justify being there. From what we've seen since the middle of the season, OU won't stand much of a chance. But you can't win if you don't enter.
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Yeah, they need multiple teams to falter. An OU/LSU matchup would be fun to watch with their offenses.
 
OUBuff said:
As much as I'd like to see OU in the playoff, they need a lot of help to justify being there. From what we've seen since the middle of the season, OU won't stand much of a chance. But you can't win if you don't enter.
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Just as there's some bias in favor of Clemson and Alabama due to their performance in CFP, I think Oklahoma will experience negative bias because they have been selected 3 out of the past 4 years and lost every time in the semis.
 
Buffnik said:
Just as there's some bias in favor of Clemson and Alabama due to their performance in CFP, I think Oklahoma will experience negative bias because they have been selected 3 out of the past 4 years and lost every time in the semis.
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I hope the selection committee has the ability to look at each team, each season as different teams. It make no sense to punish or reward a team based upon anything other than their performance in the current year. Of course humans are humans.
 
Buffnik said:
How would they not? No one thinks Alabama is as good without Tua as it was with Tua.
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Yep, and Saban was pitching against that in his on field interview. "Hey we have lots of other good players" always working the media. Mels going to help his bud out this year though.
 
Buffnik said:
Just as there's some bias in favor of Clemson and Alabama due to their performance in CFP, I think Oklahoma will experience negative bias because they have been selected 3 out of the past 4 years and lost every time in the semis.
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I don't think that's going to happen. I think OU will miss the CFP if they go 12-1 because their resume this year isnt good enough. They didn't really test themselves OOC-they played UCLA (bad Pac 12 team), Houston (G5 with a sub .500 record), and South Dakota (Yummy cupcake). They've got one win over a team that will likely be ranked by the committee on Tuesday (I'm making the assumption that Texas is going to fall out of these next rankings). Here's the only way they get in-They need to win out. They need LSU and Ohio State to both hold serve, which eliminates UGA, Penn State, and any far fetched scenario involving Minnesota in the CFP. They need chaos in the Pac 12-they need Utah and/or Oregon to lose a game before the Pac 12 championship, and then they need to have whoever goes into that game with 2 losses to beat the other. About the only team ranked ahead of them I'd put them in over is Alabama.
 
ahoelsken said:
I don't think that's going to happen. I think OU will miss the CFP if they go 12-1 because their resume this year isnt good enough. They didn't really test themselves OOC-they played UCLA (bad Pac 12 team), Houston (G5 with a sub .500 record), and South Dakota (Yummy cupcake). They've got one win over a team that will likely be ranked by the committee on Tuesday (I'm making the assumption that Texas is going to fall out of these next rankings). Here's the only way they get in-They need to win out. They need LSU and Ohio State to both hold serve, which eliminates UGA, Penn State, and any far fetched scenario involving Minnesota in the CFP. They need chaos in the Pac 12-they need Utah and/or Oregon to lose a game before the Pac 12 championship, and then they need to have whoever goes into that game with 2 losses to beat the other. About the only team ranked ahead of them I'd put them in over is Alabama.
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If UGA beats LSU, both are in and P12 winner out.

I’m not sure Bama is done, especially if they win out convincingly, LSU beats UGA and Utah beats Oregon.

I think Oregon will likely jump Bama if they are a conference champion.

I think OU is out in all circumstances.

If PSU beats OSU, then it gets interesting. I don’t see it though.

That’s how I have simplified it to date.

I just love November CFB.
 
Duff Man said:
I like this narrative of Bama winning convincingly over what would then be a 4-loss Auburn team is somehow enough. No one other than Bama would get that type of deference, especially with their best player injured.
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I would hold the same argument for OSU and LSU in the same situation.

Comparative scores matter to the Committee especially in a scenario where several possible CFP teams are involved, including and especially Oregon

The Committee also uses several other measures of comparison between common opponents, including game control and SOR.

Tua being out is a factor, but not now. They have 6 quarters of data with him not playing, albeit against bad opponents. Let’s play, then decide.

I will be interested in seeing where the Committee puts Aub. I think they will be 16-17.
 
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