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Pac-12 Bubble Watch Comparison

How Many PAC-12 Teams Make The Tourney?

  • 1

    Votes: 3 4.5%

  • 2

    Votes: 50 75.8%

  • 3

    Votes: 13 19.7%
  • Total voters
    66
jgisland

jgisland

Club Member
There has been a lot of talk on here recently about CU's tourney chances, I think we can all agree that the P12 will most likely get no more than 1 at-large bid. So how CU compares to the other P12 teams is vitally important.

Spurred by this post on rushthecourt.net I put together a "Pac12 Bubble Watch" comparison. I will try to update this after the Saturday games each weekend throughout the rest of the season.

A couple of things to note -
-Only Division 1 games count, so when you tell me CU's win % is better 70% I will point you back to this where I am telling you that the Ft. Lewis game and the New Orleans game don't count towards their RPI.
- The RPI Forecast is taken from rpiforecast.com, I used the RPI forecast that includes the conf tourney's. They have CU forecast to end up at 19-11, (they are 14-7 now, remember DII games don't count). So that means with 7 conf games remaining they are projecting CU to play in 2 conf tourney games. Going 4-3 in regular season play and going 1-1 in the tourney. This is better than KenPom.com has CU projected, he has them 3-4 only winning against Utah, ASU and Stanford.
- A couple of the "bad losses" P12 teams had against out of conf opponents early on don't look so bad now. Specifically UW's loss to South Dakota St who possess a RPI of 57 and UCLA's loss to Loyola Marymount who now has an RPI of 114.


[TD="class: xl65, width: 81"]Team[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 64"]Win %[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 64"]RPI[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 64"]SoS[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 95"]RPI Projection[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 64"]KenPom[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 84"]RPI Proj + KP[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 269"]Qualtiy Wins (RPI 1-100)[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 261"]Bad Losses (RPI 150+)[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65"]California[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.76[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]47[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]93[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]32[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]15[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]47[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]None[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]WSU
[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65"]Washington[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.666667[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]75[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]76[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]79[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]75[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]154[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Oregon, Stanford, Arizona[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]None[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65"]Arizona[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.68[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]57[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]64[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]81[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]40[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]121[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]California [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]None[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65"]Oregon[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.708333[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]67[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]94[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]75[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]90[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]165[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Nebraska, Stanford, Arizona[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]None[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65"]Colorado[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.636364[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]74[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]72[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]77[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]77[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]154[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Washington, Arizona, Oregon [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]None[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65"]Stanford[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.666667[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]100[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]126[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]95[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]61[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]156[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]CSU, NC State,CU[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]None[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65"]Oregon St.[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.608696[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]136[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]172[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]124[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]87[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]211[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]California, Texas, Oregon[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Idaho, ASU[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65"]UCLA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.565217[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]116[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]82[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]108[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]48[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]156[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Arizona, CU[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]None[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65"]WSU[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.521739[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]150[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]137[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]153[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]114[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]267[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]California, Stanford [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]UC Riverside , Utah, ASU[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65"]ASU[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.333333[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]226[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]111[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]250[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]242[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]492[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]None[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]6 Losses to +150 RPI Teams[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65"]USC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.24[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]227[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]57[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]239[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]213[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]452[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]TCU[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Cal Poly, ASU[/TD]

[TD="class: xl65"]Utah[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.173913[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]273[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]81[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]274[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]305[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]579[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]None[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]5 Losses to +150 RPI Teams[/TD]
 
Last edited:
Wow the pac12 is bad. We would be no better than 8th in the big 12 right now
 
Great post.

CU is 72nd according to the most recent RPI update I saw. Arizona is 65th.
Others of note: Cal 48th, Washington 75th, Oregon 84th

liverpi.com has CU finishing 20-10 (12-6)
 
CVilleBuff said:
Great post.

CU is 72nd according to the most recent RPI update I saw. Arizona is 65th.
Others of note: Cal 48th, Washington 75th, Oregon 84th

liverpi.com has CU finishing 20-10 (12-6)
Click to expand...

Ya for some reason we are projected to lose to OSU...
 
CVilleBuff said:
Great post.

CU is 72nd according to the most recent RPI update I saw. Arizona is 65th.
Others of note: Cal 48th, Washington 75th, Oregon 84th

liverpi.com has CU finishing 20-10 (12-6)
Click to expand...

I used realtimerpi.com for my current rpi's, they haven't updated it yet through last night's late games. So I am sure you are right CU is higher than 81.
 
Here is my take on what CU needs to do to get in:

UW, Arizona and Oregon all possess higher RPI's than CU but CU has beat them all at home. CU needs to absolutely win either the road Arizona or Oregon game, they need to sweep 1 of these teams. CU doesn't play UW again and UW stocked up on home games early in the season (as did CU). UW only has 2 more home games, we need UW to pick up some road losses to jump ahead of them. CU then needs to bascially win out figuring they lose either to Oregon or Arizona on the road, that means home wins against CAL and Stanford, finishing 20-7. Then comes the conf tourney, figuring the above happens CU will get a first round bye, if they get 2 wins in the tourney that gets them to 22 wins and into the P12 champ game and I belive that gets CU in.
 
tante said:
Wow the pac12 is bad. We would be no better than 8th in the big 12 right now
Click to expand...

If we're talking about past recent years when the Big XII has been loaded, yes. This year, Mizzou, KU and Baylor are obviously loaded, but there's a huge drop off after that. Iowa State is in 4th place.
 
I think the Pac 12 will get 3 teams in. CU has a shot if they win at either Oregon or Arizona and do well in Pac 12 tourney.
 
jgisland said:
Here is my take on what CU needs to do to get in:

UW, Arizona and Oregon all possess higher RPI's than CU but CU has beat them all at home. CU needs to absolutely win either the road Arizona or Oregon game, they need to sweep 1 of these teams. CU doesn't play UW again and UW stocked up on home games early in the season (as did CU). UW only has 2 more home games, we need UW to pick up some road losses to jump ahead of them. CU then needs to bascially win out figuring they lose either to Oregon or Arizona on the road, that means home wins against CAL and Stanford, finishing 20-7. Then comes the conf tourney, figuring the above happens CU will get a first round bye, if they get 2 wins in the tourney that gets them to 22 wins and into the P12 champ game and I belive that gets CU in.
Click to expand...


Actually think Washington will get in and wouldn't mind having them win out. It will help our RPI
 
Unless I misunderstand the way RPI is calculated, we would want the schools we play twice to do well and the schools we play once to do poorly against those schools we play twice. So even though Washington is considered a quality win, from a pure RPI perspective we would want them to lose every game they play the rest of the way except for against Wazzu and the LA schools where we would be RPI neutral.
 
tante said:
Wow the pac12 is bad. We would be no better than 8th in the big 12 right now
Click to expand...

I think some could argue that we would be lucky to be 8th in the Big 12 right now. The Pac12 is pretty bad. But I have faith that in a few years the Pac12 will be much stronger than the Big 12.
 
CVilleBuff said:
If we're talking about past recent years when the Big XII has been loaded, yes. This year, Mizzou, KU and Baylor are obviously loaded, but there's a huge drop off after that. Iowa State is in 4th place.
Click to expand...

Have you watched Iowa State this year? They're not the same old Iowa State. They're still not a powerhouse, but that's a good team. I could see them making a tiny bit of noise in the tourney if they get decent matchups.
 
jgisland said:
Here is my take on what CU needs to do to get in:

UW, Arizona and Oregon all possess higher RPI's than CU but CU has beat them all at home. CU needs to absolutely win either the road Arizona or Oregon game, they need to sweep 1 of these teams. CU doesn't play UW again and UW stocked up on home games early in the season (as did CU). UW only has 2 more home games, we need UW to pick up some road losses to jump ahead of them. CU then needs to bascially win out figuring they lose either to Oregon or Arizona on the road, that means home wins against CAL and Stanford, finishing 20-7. Then comes the conf tourney, figuring the above happens CU will get a first round bye, if they get 2 wins in the tourney that gets them to 22 wins and into the P12 champ game and I belive that gets CU in.
Click to expand...

we need to have a big road win. Most likely we will lose to both Oregon AND Arizona on the road, but they need to find a way to win one of those games if they want a shot. Since we usually play better on Thursday, I can't decide if going up against Arizona first is good or bad for us.
 
Beyond the arc started their bubble talk today.


PAC-12
Locks: None | Should Be In: None | Bubble: Arizona, California, Colorado, Oregon, Stanford, Washington

Colorado (13-7 | 7-3) | RPI: 80 | SOS: 85 | – The Buffaloes have to stay with the Pac-12 leaders and probably win a regular-season title to earn an at-large bid. Georgia is Colorado’s best non-conference victory and that wont’ help much. The Buffs are just 2-6 vs. Top 100 teams and are 3-6 away from home.
 
I want to know who is on the selection committee...if Dan Beebe is still on it (even though he is no longer Big XII commish) we have NO shot
 
Goose said:
Have you watched Iowa State this year? They're not the same old Iowa State. They're still not a powerhouse, but that's a good team. I could see them making a tiny bit of noise in the tourney if they get decent matchups.
Click to expand...

Yup, loaded up on transfers. However I still maintain they are miles and miles behind the 'big 3'. CU could compete with ISU, KSU, Texas, etc.
 
How to End Bubble Speculation

Using RPI Forecast's projected end of season RPI & the CURRENT KenPom rankings, only two PAC-12 teams would make it. So here we go....

[TABLE="class: grid"]
[TR]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]RPI[/TD]
[TD]KenPom[/TD]
[TD]TOTAL[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]California[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]61[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Arizona[/TD]
[TD]78[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[TD]116[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Washington[/TD]
[TD]70[/TD]
[TD]64[/TD]
[TD]134[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Stanford[/TD]
[TD]90[/TD]
[TD]60[/TD]
[TD]150[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]UCLA[/TD]
[TD]107[/TD]
[TD]51[/TD]
[TD]158[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Colorado[/TD]
[TD]76[/TD]
[TD]84[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Oregon St[/TD]
[TD]113[/TD]
[TD]77[/TD]
[TD]190[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Oregon[/TD]
[TD]89[/TD]
[TD]107[/TD]
[TD]196[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Washington St[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]120[/TD]
[TD]284[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Arizona St[/TD]
[TD]240[/TD]
[TD]221[/TD]
[TD]461[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]USC[/TD]
[TD]232[/TD]
[TD]202[/TD]
[TD]434[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Utah[/TD]
[TD]274[/TD]
[TD]312[/TD]
[TD]586[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
Even if we win out, and make it to the championship game, I think its hard to say we will make it in as a At-Large team. We need to win the PAC-12 Tournament, or go to the NIT, simple as that.

Keep in mind, I have not seen any reason to think that CU cannot have a fairly good chance at winning the PAC 12 tournament, its not like the Big 12 was.
 
GoBuffs!! said:
Even if we win out, and make it to the championship game, I think its hard to say we will make it in as a At-Large team. We need to win the PAC-12 Tournament, or go to the NIT, simple as that.

Keep in mind, I have not seen any reason to think that CU cannot have a fairly good chance at winning the PAC 12 tournament, its not like the Big 12 was.
Click to expand...

Theoretically, winning out and making the championship game would put us at 25-8 (15-3). We would undoubtedly get in in that scenario. Unquestionably. Now, that's not going to happen, so we needn't worry.
 
Valid question, how many PAC 12 teams get in? I somewhat doubt we're a 1 bid conference, but does the tourney take 2 or 3?
 
dio said:
everything i've heard is a 2-bid league this year
Click to expand...

Surest way for it to be a 2 bid league is for someone other than Cal to get the automatic bid. Cal is in a good place right now with an RPI of 48 (Zona 65th, CU 72nd, Washington 75th). If one of CU/Zona/Washington doesn't kick some ass down the stretch, it's going to be iffy for a second bid if Cal takes the auto.
 
I wouldnt trust getting an at large unless we play really well down the stretch. Even then, Id be worried. **** it, win the tourney and leave no doubt.
 
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