Pac-12 Expansion Candidates - Academic Criteria

[onealcd]

I just don’t think most schools are that concerned about the even distribution since they still make way more money thank their peers. Texas is the only school that decided to be a dick about it. I don’t really think Ohio State is all pissed off about missing out on $10 million that is going to northwestern when they already make a hundred million more as an athletic department.

The sec would never do that either, even if the top 4 programs proposed it the rest of the conference would tell them to get bent.

 

[ScottyBuff]

I just don’t think most schools are that concerned about the even distribution since they still make way more money thank their peers. Texas is the only school that decided to be a dick about it. I don’t really think Ohio State is all pissed off about missing out on $10 million that is going to northwestern when they already make a hundred million more as an athletic department.

The sec would never do that either, even if the top 4 programs proposed it the rest of the conference would tell them to get bent.

Absolutely agree about the SEC, but that conference is much more uniform in overall value of the programs.

USC has always wanted a bigger stake than everyone else in the Pac-12 (and got it prior to the last round of TV renegotiations). Texas AND Oklahoma want that from the BIG XII (everyone wants to single out UT but OU just isn't as vocal about it). Notre Dame has had it for so long that everyone takes it for granted; but they got what they wanted from the ACC as a "scheduling partner" football member.

I truly don't think Ohio State and Michigan feel that they are valued properly in regards to media rights (regardless of it being even). Now, the Big Ten conference leadership is really strong so maybe for now things are OK. But if/when Jim Delany retires (he is 70 years old) then things might shake up there too.

If two things happen, then I think the changes will come faster:

If the FAANG group starts whispering in ears of Presidents and Athletic Directors over the next few years about how valuable their school is by themselves then we could see some changes at the next go-around; or possibly the one after that depending upon how protectionist (aggressive with their offers) traditional cable companies will get.

If one of, or all of: Notre Dame, Texas, and Oklahoma get massive payouts to sign with one of the FAANG companies to distribute their content direct to fans via an OTT model, then the rest of the big dogs will get jealous and competitiveness will force the conferences into that new paradigm.

 

[onealcd]

Absolutely agree about the SEC, but that conference is much more uniform in overall value of the programs.

USC has always wanted a bigger stake than everyone else in the Pac-12 (and got it prior to the last round of TV renegotiations). Texas AND Oklahoma want that from the BIG XII (everyone wants to single out UT but OU just isn't as vocal about it). Notre Dame has had it for so long that everyone takes it for granted; but they got what they wanted from the ACC as a "scheduling partner" football member.

I truly don't think Ohio State and Michigan feel that they are valued properly in regards to media rights (regardless of it being even). Now, the Big Ten conference leadership is really strong so maybe for now things are OK. But if/when Jim Delany retires (he is 70 years old) then things might shake up there too.

If two things happen, then I think the changes will come faster:

If the FAANG group starts whispering in ears of Presidents and Athletic Directors over the next few years about how valuable their school is by themselves then we could see some changes at the next go-around; or possibly the one after that depending upon how protectionist (aggressive with their offers) traditional cable companies will get.

If one of, or all of: Notre Dame, Texas, and Oklahoma get massive payouts to sign with one of the FAANG companies to distribute their content direct to fans via an OTT model, then the rest of the big dogs will get jealous and competitiveness will force the conferences into that new paradigm.

The only thing I disagree with here is the part about OU. They want even distribution and conference stability, they just want to take advantage of their situation right now like Texas is. They wanted to be in the pac a couple years ago and they would take a big 10 invite in a heartbeat.

 

[PAHIBuff]

Not sure how that’s relevant to my point...

Not a big deal, I was just reacting to your description of BYU as "small". I was in a nit pick mode I guess....

 

[Bufffan68]

Not a big deal, I was just reacting to your description of BYU as "small". I was in a nit pick mode I guess....

Ah. No problem at all. Just confused. I had no idea they were roughly the size of CU.

 

[MtnBuff]

Ah. No problem at all. Just confused. I had no idea they were roughly the size of CU.

With BYU you have to keep in mind as well that they are like Notre Dame on a smaller scale. There are a lot of members of the LDS church who never went to BYU who follow them and support them because they are a visible part of the church.

This is similar to the Catholics all over the country who grew up Notre Dame fans that have never been and will never go to South Bend.

 

[Bufffan68]

With BYU you have to keep in mind as well that they are like Notre Dame on a smaller scale. There are a lot of members of the LDS church who never went to BYU who follow them and support them because they are a visible part of the church.

This is similar to the Catholics all over the country who grew up Notre Dame fans that have never been and will never go to South Bend.

Interesting...and yes...a much smaller scale! Though I bet the fervor is greater for Mormons...there's a lot of lapsed Catholics but I haven't met many lapsed Mormons...those identifying as such but not active in their faith.

 

[MtnBuff]

Interesting...and yes...a much smaller scale! Though I bet the fervor is greater for Mormons...there's a lot of lapsed Catholics but I haven't met many lapsed Mormons...those identifying as such but not active in their faith.

I think there are more than you would realize. I work with a guy who is very active in the LDS church in the area where our school is and it drives him nuts when we have students who he knows from the church who are lapsed, in some cases very lapsed.

Big difference is that there are just way fewer Mormons. A few years back Pew published a study about the number of people joining different denominations. The Mormons are well known for actively evangelizing but in the year that the study was done the Catholic Church in the US had more people join than the entire membership of the Mormon church.

Outside of Utah and some areas in surrounding states there aren't many areas where the single biggest identified religious denomination is LDS. There are Catholic heavy areas all over the country. Every faith has a certain number of members who either fall away or are just innactive. It is logical that it would be easier to find these separated Catholics since there are so many more Catholics to start with.

 

[ScottyBuff]

The biggest opportunity that I can see for the Pac-12 from both a P12 Network perspective and a long-term strategy for controlling the collegiate sports market in the west would be to lead the way in merging TV, OTT, and experiential fan experiences at live events.

Any strategy that puts TV time slots ahead of in-game attendance is a death-spiral for the conference teams: once people stop going to games you will struggle to get them back. Make the live event more exciting and connected then the ratings, streaming views, etc will increase as well. Merchandise sales will increase (no Pac-12 team is in the top 25 in merchandising royalties).

So, what if the PAC-12 Enterprises, LLC (the company that actually owns the network and pays the conference the rights fee) bid on the following upcoming media rights:

BYU (2019)
West Coast Conference (2019) includes T1/T2 for Gonzaga (T3: 2028)
Mountain West Conference (2020)
Hawai’i (2020) (They are not part of the MWC TV football contract)
​

All of the above rights come up several years before the main Pac-12 media contract expires in 2023 so there would be time to develop and execute the strategy. The Pac-12 already has a stated goal of combining the linear TV and digital strategies together. So they already will have developed the “template” to make this work and monetize it with MSO's (Comcast, ABC, Fox) and OTT (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netfliz, and Google).

PAC-12 Enterprises would then be in a position of strength with cable companies, streaming services, etc for any viewership on any platform in the west without having to dilute the actual conference membership and culture.

This could also lead to a “scheduling alliance” for top teams like BYU, Boise State, and Gonzaga against Pac-12 members to drive ratings/views and national interest.
Long-term the conference could use this as a vehicle to closely monitor the development of programs almost like a promotion/relegation aspect in European soccer. If Nevada, UNLV, New Mexico, San Diego State, UC-Davis, UC-San Diego, or Boise State ever got their athletic programs and institutional research developed to the level that would warrant Pac-12 membership the rights fees could easily be transferred and there would be a known quantity to their value; vice-versa if a program ever regressed so badly that a conference needed to expunge them (Temple).

Eventually this strategy could be extending to include: Big West, Big Sky, WAC, GNAC and maybe even college hockey (one of the few actual revenue/profitable sports outside of football/basketball; but one that the Pac-12 only has 1 school (Arizona State), but there are some top teams in the region (DU, CC, Air Force, Alaska-Anchorage, and Alaska-Fairbanks), rugby sevens and lacrosse are also up-and-coming sports in the west.

The West is poised for so much demographic growth and change while also straddling the hotbeds of the technology revolution that is going to shape the future of media consumption. It seems fatalistic to leave all of that to chance and not shape it ourselves.

The only way of predicting the future… is to create it!

 

[Buffnik]

The biggest opportunity that I can see for the Pac-12 from both a P12 Network perspective and a long-term strategy for controlling the collegiate sports market in the west would be to lead the way in merging TV, OTT, and experiential fan experiences at live events.

Any strategy that puts TV time slots ahead of in-game attendance is a death-spiral for the conference teams: once people stop going to games you will struggle to get them back. Make the live event more exciting and connected then the ratings, streaming views, etc will increase as well. Merchandise sales will increase (no Pac-12 team is in the top 25 in merchandising royalties).

So, what if the PAC-12 Enterprises, LLC (the company that actually owns the network and pays the conference the rights fee) bid on the following upcoming media rights:

BYU (2019)
West Coast Conference (2019) includes T1/T2 for Gonzaga (T3: 2028)
Mountain West Conference (2020)
Hawai’i (2020) (They are not part of the MWC TV football contract)
​

All of the above rights come up several years before the main Pac-12 media contract expires in 2023 so there would be time to develop and execute the strategy. The Pac-12 already has a stated goal of combining the linear TV and digital strategies together. So they already will have developed the “template” to make this work and monetize it with MSO's (Comcast, ABC, Fox) and OTT (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netfliz, and Google).

PAC-12 Enterprises would then be in a position of strength with cable companies, streaming services, etc for any viewership on any platform in the west without having to dilute the actual conference membership and culture.

This could also lead to a “scheduling alliance” for top teams like BYU, Boise State, and Gonzaga against Pac-12 members to drive ratings/views and national interest.
Long-term the conference could use this as a vehicle to closely monitor the development of programs almost like a promotion/relegation aspect in European soccer. If Nevada, UNLV, New Mexico, San Diego State, UC-Davis, UC-San Diego, or Boise State ever got their athletic programs and institutional research developed to the level that would warrant Pac-12 membership the rights fees could easily be transferred and there would be a known quantity to their value; vice-versa if a program ever regressed so badly that a conference needed to expunge them (Temple).

Eventually this strategy could be extending to include: Big West, Big Sky, WAC, GNAC and maybe even college hockey (one of the few actual revenue/profitable sports outside of football/basketball; but one that the Pac-12 only has 1 school (Arizona State), but there are some top teams in the region (DU, CC, Air Force, Alaska-Anchorage, and Alaska-Fairbanks), rugby sevens and lacrosse are also up-and-coming sports in the west.

The West is poised for so much demographic growth and change while also straddling the hotbeds of the technology revolution that is going to shape the future of media consumption. It seems fatalistic to leave all of that to chance and not shape it ourselves.

The only way of predicting the future… is to create it!

That makes a lot of sense to me. Especially since we're already sharing referees for all our sports and schedule each other a lot. Would be interesting, to say the least, if PACN stepped up to buy the 3rd tier rights to those conferences. At the least, it would allow any of our Pac-12 road games played at one of those schools to be broadcast on PACN National. We've got the regionals for the other games that don't involve a Pac-12 team and it could cause expansion of carriage, which is desperately needed.

 

[Not Sure]

The biggest opportunity that I can see for the Pac-12 from both a P12 Network perspective and a long-term strategy for controlling the collegiate sports market in the west would be to lead the way in merging TV, OTT, and experiential fan experiences at live events.

Any strategy that puts TV time slots ahead of in-game attendance is a death-spiral for the conference teams: once people stop going to games you will struggle to get them back. Make the live event more exciting and connected then the ratings, streaming views, etc will increase as well. Merchandise sales will increase (no Pac-12 team is in the top 25 in merchandising royalties).

So, what if the PAC-12 Enterprises, LLC (the company that actually owns the network and pays the conference the rights fee) bid on the following upcoming media rights:

BYU (2019)
West Coast Conference (2019) includes T1/T2 for Gonzaga (T3: 2028)
Mountain West Conference (2020)
Hawai’i (2020) (They are not part of the MWC TV football contract)
​

All of the above rights come up several years before the main Pac-12 media contract expires in 2023 so there would be time to develop and execute the strategy. The Pac-12 already has a stated goal of combining the linear TV and digital strategies together. So they already will have developed the “template” to make this work and monetize it with MSO's (Comcast, ABC, Fox) and OTT (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netfliz, and Google).

PAC-12 Enterprises would then be in a position of strength with cable companies, streaming services, etc for any viewership on any platform in the west without having to dilute the actual conference membership and culture.

This could also lead to a “scheduling alliance” for top teams like BYU, Boise State, and Gonzaga against Pac-12 members to drive ratings/views and national interest.
Long-term the conference could use this as a vehicle to closely monitor the development of programs almost like a promotion/relegation aspect in European soccer. If Nevada, UNLV, New Mexico, San Diego State, UC-Davis, UC-San Diego, or Boise State ever got their athletic programs and institutional research developed to the level that would warrant Pac-12 membership the rights fees could easily be transferred and there would be a known quantity to their value; vice-versa if a program ever regressed so badly that a conference needed to expunge them (Temple).

Eventually this strategy could be extending to include: Big West, Big Sky, WAC, GNAC and maybe even college hockey (one of the few actual revenue/profitable sports outside of football/basketball; but one that the Pac-12 only has 1 school (Arizona State), but there are some top teams in the region (DU, CC, Air Force, Alaska-Anchorage, and Alaska-Fairbanks), rugby sevens and lacrosse are also up-and-coming sports in the west.

The West is poised for so much demographic growth and change while also straddling the hotbeds of the technology revolution that is going to shape the future of media consumption. It seems fatalistic to leave all of that to chance and not shape it ourselves.

The only way of predicting the future… is to create it!

I like the way you think. The P12 net has to act like an actual network and start going after some content that will bring more viewers in.

 

[Not Sure]

That makes a lot of sense to me. Especially since we're already sharing referees for all our sports and schedule each other a lot. Would be interesting, to say the least, if PACN stepped up to buy the 3rd tier rights to those conferences. At the least, it would allow any of our Pac-12 road games played at one of those schools to be broadcast on PACN National. We've got the regionals for the other games that don't involve a Pac-12 team and it could cause expansion of carriage, which is desperately needed.

Screw third tier rights. Go for second tier rights. Time to go head to head with the regionals and become THE regional for any college sports in the Pacific and Mountain time zones.

 

[Buffnik]

Screw third tier rights. Go for second tier rights. Time to go head to head with the regionals and become THE regional for any college sports in the Pacific and Mountain time zones.

You're right. 2nd tier rights is what we'd want for PACN. Hell, how much could CBSSN and NBCSN be paying them for that anyway? Could probably lock up all that western conference 2nd & 3rd tier programming for all the G5 conferences for around $15 million per year.

 

[Not Sure]

You're right. 2nd tier rights is what we'd want for PACN. Hell, how much could CBSSN and NBCSN be paying them for that anyway? Could probably lock up all that western conference 2nd & 3rd tier programming for all the G5 conferences for around $15 million per year.

And gain some leverage with DTV while we are at it.

 

[ahoelsken]

The biggest opportunity that I can see for the Pac-12 from both a P12 Network perspective and a long-term strategy for controlling the collegiate sports market in the west would be to lead the way in merging TV, OTT, and experiential fan experiences at live events.

Any strategy that puts TV time slots ahead of in-game attendance is a death-spiral for the conference teams: once people stop going to games you will struggle to get them back. Make the live event more exciting and connected then the ratings, streaming views, etc will increase as well. Merchandise sales will increase (no Pac-12 team is in the top 25 in merchandising royalties).

So, what if the PAC-12 Enterprises, LLC (the company that actually owns the network and pays the conference the rights fee) bid on the following upcoming media rights:

BYU (2019)
West Coast Conference (2019) includes T1/T2 for Gonzaga (T3: 2028)
Mountain West Conference (2020)
Hawai’i (2020) (They are not part of the MWC TV football contract)
​

All of the above rights come up several years before the main Pac-12 media contract expires in 2023 so there would be time to develop and execute the strategy. The Pac-12 already has a stated goal of combining the linear TV and digital strategies together. So they already will have developed the “template” to make this work and monetize it with MSO's (Comcast, ABC, Fox) and OTT (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netfliz, and Google).

PAC-12 Enterprises would then be in a position of strength with cable companies, streaming services, etc for any viewership on any platform in the west without having to dilute the actual conference membership and culture.

This could also lead to a “scheduling alliance” for top teams like BYU, Boise State, and Gonzaga against Pac-12 members to drive ratings/views and national interest.
Long-term the conference could use this as a vehicle to closely monitor the development of programs almost like a promotion/relegation aspect in European soccer. If Nevada, UNLV, New Mexico, San Diego State, UC-Davis, UC-San Diego, or Boise State ever got their athletic programs and institutional research developed to the level that would warrant Pac-12 membership the rights fees could easily be transferred and there would be a known quantity to their value; vice-versa if a program ever regressed so badly that a conference needed to expunge them (Temple).

Eventually this strategy could be extending to include: Big West, Big Sky, WAC, GNAC and maybe even college hockey (one of the few actual revenue/profitable sports outside of football/basketball; but one that the Pac-12 only has 1 school (Arizona State), but there are some top teams in the region (DU, CC, Air Force, Alaska-Anchorage, and Alaska-Fairbanks), rugby sevens and lacrosse are also up-and-coming sports in the west.

The West is poised for so much demographic growth and change while also straddling the hotbeds of the technology revolution that is going to shape the future of media consumption. It seems fatalistic to leave all of that to chance and not shape it ourselves.

The only way of predicting the future… is to create it!

Scheduling Alliance? BYU pretty much has one with this league in football already-This year, they're playing Utah, Arizona, Washington, and Cal. Next year, Utah, Washington, and USC all play BYU in Provo. In 2020, they're playing Utah, Arizona State, and Stanford. I would be just fine with guaranteeing them four to five games a year against our conference if for no other reason than to take a little advantage of the deal they got for themselves with ESPN when they went independent. Hell, for that matter I'd replace CSU with them in 23 and 24 if the Rammies aren't willing to make a second trip to Folsom. Boise doesn't make sense-they basically have three OOC slots because they play BYU yearly.

I think you make a good point about hockey-If we can get 3-4 more of our schools to start hockey programs-I'd like to see the conference start a league and get some affiliate members for just that sport-DU, CC, and AFA all make sense, and the two Alaska schools would make sense if we could get 2 of the Northwest 4 to start programs. This is a sport that would make the most sense for us as an institution more than lacrosse-Hockey is clearly growing, and if DU can win multiple titles and make the NCAAs consistently, so can we. We could probably put hockey at the 1stBank Center in Broomfield. They don't do much there other than concerts IIRC.

I like your idea on adding tv rights for Hawaii, and I'd take that a step farther-I'd add them. Hawaii actually would make sense for both us and them if we did expand-Teams who go out there get an extra game (and most take advantage of it-CSU used that slot the last couple times they've had it to schedule paydays with Alabama), and their biggest problem is travel costs, which they'd be saving greatly on by joining us instead of the MWC......we've got 8 teams in WA, OR, and CA. It also ends the need for them to take roadies like Army (this year-that game will kick at 6am Hawaii time) or Michigan, or Australia. They'd actually make the most sense as an expansion candidate-Honolulu is the biggest market west of Texas that we have no presence in-excluding cities like Vegas and SD where there are a ton of Pac 12 alums anyway. If we want to go to 14, we could add Nevada, UNLV, or San Diego State

 

[ScottyBuff]

The Mountain West Conference gets paid $14.3 million/year for their T1 and T2 rights; with Boise getting an additional $1.8 million for their side deal with ESPN. Everyone in the conference hates the deal because they are asked to play night games during the week or late kickoffs on Saturdays. They currently have a deal to stream their games but get paid $0 for it. Link

"The issue is for us, the money is not so great that, at least in my opinion, that we are willing to just play game times whenever TV calls," Wyoming athletic director Tom Burman said earlier this season. "That's the challenges. If you want money from ESPN or CBS we're going to have to play in that late window. That's kind of what we bring them. Inventory late at night or sometimes off Saturday."

The reason that they formed their own network years ago (when they had BYU and TCU) was to get back to normal game times and stop being at the mercy of the networks.

"It's great to be aligned with a linear broadcaster, but what we've seen, too, is that impacts with our localized fanbase," Colorado State athletic director Joe Parker said.
Colorado State just made a huge commitment to appealing to its local fanbase, opening a $220 million, on-campus stadium this year.
"We've seen all the engagement metric launching in a remarkable upward trend," Parker said. "The thing that I'm concerned about is if we start moving our games off Saturday or if we start ending up in the 8 (p.m. local) or later time slot, that's going to have impacts on fans wanting to attend in venue."

Hawai'i has a Pay-per-View deal with Oceanic Time Warner that makes their fans pay to watch their games. They actually get paid pretty well for the deal, like $2.5 million annually. Link

The BYU-ESPN deal isn't publicly disclosed but a website did some good "reverse math" and estimated $4.5 million which they just extended thru 2019. Link

I haven’t yet found a reliable source on the West Coast Conference deal. Gonzaga gets a preferential deal through ESPN, and it does look like Gonzaga received less than $2 million for all “Sponsorship and Media Royalties” so the rest of the conference can’t be too much. Link

So for somewhere north of $25 million per year a TV network should be able to acquire all of those rights and match what they make now. Assuming an increase is due, the total of between $33-34 million per year and $50 million per year would net the T1 and T2 rights to the MWC, BYU, Hawai’i, and the WCC (including Gonzaga).

 

[ahoelsken]

Two thoughts with this-One, think there's a perception problem that we deal with here. This is where bowl play and out of conference games matter. Any W we get in the out of conference against a P5 opponent or Notre Dame is critical as a league, whether we're talking about Washington/Auburn or our game with Nebraska. Two, P12N content is perfect on a platform like social media. It can get in front of people who have DTV or some other platform that doesn't carry the network, and you're also getting more of your games out of the 8pm slots.

 

[ScottyBuff]

Two thoughts with this-One, think there's a perception problem that we deal with here. This is where bowl play and out of conference games matter. Any W we get in the out of conference against a P5 opponent or Notre Dame is critical as a league, whether we're talking about Washington/Auburn or our game with Nebraska. Two, P12N content is perfect on a platform like social media. It can get in front of people who have DTV or some other platform that doesn't carry the network, and you're also getting more of your games out of the 8pm slots.

Agree with you 100%. Part of the perception problem is that the P12 conference is catering the schedule to fit the TV market (East/Central time zone) and NOT catering to the Pacific/Mountain fanbase. The networks do this to every team/conference out west. I think this is contributing to the disengagement that western college football fans feel. I also think it makes the teams/leagues seem second rate in the perception of the media, the eastern U.S. fans, etc.

Of course, winning the games on the field matter. But that isn't something that the P12 Network and commissioners office control. But they can put the conference in a more visible light for recruits and fans; which I do think are more directly related to success on the field in the long run.

The current issue with social media distribution is that there isn't a great revenue model for it yet. Hopefully, the FAANG investment in live sports will turn that around; but they might not be ready in time for the next wave of contract renewals (2021-2023).

So what you are proposing is exactly what I am; I am just suggesting that the network take control of ALL of the collegiate sports content in the west and build it with the mindset of the fans and engagement in mind using linear TV, streaming/internet, and social media to IMPROVE the experience rather than just having fans hunt around to find a way to watch the game on any available channel/platform.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

**** expansion