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Pac-12 expansion is now inevitable

TSchekler said:
So ~$25m more than individual Pac 12 schools? Would the addition of UT, OU, OSU and KU, for example, increase revenue enough for everybody else in the conference, to allow UT to keep their LHN deal? Basically, I don't think UT is ever going to be OK with being equal with other conference members, because honestly, they don't have to be. The question is, would other Pac teams be OK with allowing them to continue with the LHN, if it meant everybody else started seeing larger paychecks, too?
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I think it all depends on what happens between now and 2023, along with how quickly the cord cutting happens between now and then. If all of these deals are negotiated and the gap between the power conferences condenses to a reasonable number I think UT could definitely look away. The Pac-12 and Big-12 could be set up nicely in the next round if cord cutting continues and they still own 100% of their tier 3 rights. If you look at the market data above I would guess that the Big-12 would he the loser in contract negotiations for tier 1 rights because of the markets they have. If you read any of the rumors, KU wants to go to the Big-10, WVU wants to go to the ACC and OU wanted out of the conference a long time ago so how will that all change over the next couple years.
 
onealcd said:
I think it all depends on what happens between now and 2023, along with how quickly the cord cutting happens between now and then. If all of these deals are negotiated and the gap between the power conferences condenses to a reasonable number I think UT could definitely look away. The Pac-12 and Big-12 could be set up nicely in the next round if cord cutting continues and they still own 100% of their tier 3 rights. If you look at the market data above I would guess that the Big-12 would he the loser in contract negotiations for tier 1 rights because of the markets they have. If you read any of the rumors, KU wants to go to the Big-10, WVU wants to go to the ACC and OU wanted out of the conference a long time ago so how will that all change over the next couple years.
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It's going to be a fun 6 years of discussion on this board!
 
onealcd said:
I think it all depends on what happens between now and 2023, along with how quickly the cord cutting happens between now and then. If all of these deals are negotiated and the gap between the power conferences condenses to a reasonable number I think UT could definitely look away. The Pac-12 and Big-12 could be set up nicely in the next round if cord cutting continues and they still own 100% of their tier 3 rights. If you look at the market data above I would guess that the Big-12 would he the loser in contract negotiations for tier 1 rights because of the markets they have. If you read any of the rumors, KU wants to go to the Big-10, WVU wants to go to the ACC and OU wanted out of the conference a long time ago so how will that all change over the next couple years.
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The question becomes whether UT can hold the Big 12 together. It's a money cow for them when they can stack LHN on top.

Not so much for Oklahoma, which could make a lot more in the B1G or SEC. And, honestly, if OU jumped to the Pac-12 ahead of the next media negotiation, the Pac-12 would get a hell of a lot more valuable as a Pac-14 that include OU +1.
 
OU to the Pac wouldn't bother me one bit. Would they do it without Texas, Idk? Also, I've heard plenty about OU wanting to go to the SEC.
 
BuffLuKe said:
OU to the Pac wouldn't bother me one bit. Would they do it without Texas, Idk? Also, I've heard plenty about OU wanting to go to the SEC.
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Fans, not administrators. Stoops was opposed to that, too.

The university wants to increase its academic prestige and put its rep as a football factor behind it. The football program wants to maintain the Red River Rivalry and its recruiting grounds in Texas, while strengthening its recruiting ties to California if possible. Neither sees the SEC as its future.

OSU feels very differently, though. Hard for them to be tied at the hip in the next round of realignment because they want different things.
 
Buffnik said:
Fans, not administrators. Stoops was opposed to that, too.

The university wants to increase its academic prestige and put its rep as a football factor behind it. The football program wants to maintain the Red River Rivalry and its recruiting grounds in Texas, while strengthening its recruiting ties to California if possible. Neither sees the SEC as its future.

OSU feels very differently, though. Hard for them to be tied at the hip in the next round of realignment because they want different things.
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So you think Texas would come along then?
 
Buffnik said:
Yep. Texas is ridiculously valuable. I think the question is on how to get into that market without compromising too much on conference culture and power structure. SEC was smart about this. Texas A&M gave it a UCLA level school and it's meant a ton for media revenue and recruiting for all conference members. But Texas A&M is only 1 vote that's far away from conference offices.

Could we get UT on those kind of terms? Not quite. ESPN's deal for Longhorn Network goes through 2030 and the next round of realignment is likely in 2023. If the Pac-12 added UT, it would likely be a situation where PACN would not own UT's Tier 3 broadcast rights for 7 years. So, any game in any sport played at UT and not picked up on ESPN/ABC or FOXSports would be broadcast on LHN instead of PACN. I think the Pac-12 membership would accept that. But would UT accept an equal share once that period was over? That's highly questionable and the sticking point. But if the Big 12 doesn't hold together in 2023, it may be UT's only option other than independence.
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UT will have other options. The ACC in it's dealings with Notre Dame has already shown that it is more than willing to adjust it's rules and structure to suit a member that brings value, and UT would bring huge value to the ACC.

The LHN may not be that big an obstacle either. ESPN would probably love to get itself out from under that burden. It may very well be that the benefits of re-alignment make it worth enough to UT to accept a reduced payout on the contractual obligations to buy out and kill the network. The hitch with this for the PAC is that ESPN would probably be a lot more willing to do this if moving Texas into a conference where ESPN has an interest in the conference network. Unless the PAC is willing to give ESPN some form of interest in the PAC12N UT would likely end up elsewhere.
 
MtnBuff said:
UT will have other options. The ACC in it's dealings with Notre Dame has already shown that it is more than willing to adjust it's rules and structure to suit a member that brings value, and UT would bring huge value to the ACC.

The LHN may not be that big an obstacle either. ESPN would probably love to get itself out from under that burden. It may very well be that the benefits of re-alignment make it worth enough to UT to accept a reduced payout on the contractual obligations to buy out and kill the network. The hitch with this for the PAC is that ESPN would probably be a lot more willing to do this if moving Texas into a conference where ESPN has an interest in the conference network. Unless the PAC is willing to give ESPN some form of interest in the PAC12N UT would likely end up elsewhere.
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Not a chance. UT will go independent and milk all they can out of ESPN before they let that cash cow up.
 
J.R. Ewing said:
Not a chance. UT will go independent and milk all they can out of ESPN before they let that cash cow up.
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UT isn't going to give it away but if they can make more from a conference alignment than they are giving up by settling the balance of the LHN then they would do it.

One of the issues is that apparently if they go Independent then ESPN get rights to a lot of the stuff that is currently included in the first and second tier conference rights, without having to pay them more for it. If they could go to say a B1G with a conference payout of close to $40 million a year they may be fine with setting for say $5 million a year to close out the LHN. In this case they still come out way ahead. ESPN may even be willing to sweeten the pot further if they went to the ACC since Texas would significantly increase the value of the ACC network which is a partnership with ESPN.

No matter what happens Texas will get money but they are going to have options as to from where.
 
Seems like you can get a share of many of those Texas markets with schools other then UT (if they won't play ball). OU would be a huge get. Get OU, whatever you can in Texas (UT if possible) and round it out with KU and whoever else.

Whatever the final solution, PAC needs to be major players in the next round. Hopefully Larry Scott and his office is ready. Don't want to start this by reacting. They were ready the last time around, so I've got some confidence there.
 
TSchekler said:
Be careful. Tom Herman is a fantastic coach and recruiter. Unfortunately, I think Texas is about to make "Harbaugh in Michigan"-like improvements.
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Fair enough but I grew up in Texas, I know how those ****ers think. It's them and then everybody else.
 
TSchekler said:
Be careful. Tom Herman is a fantastic coach and recruiter. Unfortunately, I think Texas is about to make "Harbaugh in Michigan"-like improvements.
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Texas has everything they need to be successful, money, recruiting grounds, etc. Unfortunately they also have a group of major donors who thing they are Jerry Jones, college version. As long as the donors are allowed to meddle Texas will struggle to maintain success. As long as the donors are writing huge checks they will be allowed to meddle. That's the culture.

Harbaugh went into a situation where everyone knew and agreed that he was the boss if it was related to football. Texas can't/won't do that.
 
MtnBuff said:
Texas has everything they need to be successful, money, recruiting grounds, etc. Unfortunately they also have a group of major donors who thing they are Jerry Jones, college version. As long as the donors are allowed to meddle Texas will struggle to maintain success. As long as the donors are writing huge checks they will be allowed to meddle. That's the culture.

Harbaugh went into a situation where everyone knew and agreed that he was the boss if it was related to football. Texas can't/won't do that.
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Guess they'll never be successful again then
 
MtnBuff said:
Texas has everything they need to be successful, money, recruiting grounds, etc. Unfortunately they also have a group of major donors who thing they are Jerry Jones, college version. As long as the donors are allowed to meddle Texas will struggle to maintain success. As long as the donors are writing huge checks they will be allowed to meddle. That's the culture.

Harbaugh went into a situation where everyone knew and agreed that he was the boss if it was related to football. Texas can't/won't do that.
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I think that's overblown. Coach just has to be the right fit. Mack Brown had an unbelievable run there. Of course, maybe things changed. Because it stopped working so well once they started forcing "coach in waiting" situations upon him and dividing the locker room. I think he was only in his 50s when the boosters started planning his retirement.
 
Buffnik said:
I think that's overblown. Coach just has to be the right fit. Mack Brown had an unbelievable run there. Of course, maybe things changed. Because it stopped working so well once they started forcing "coach in waiting" situations upon him and dividing the locker room. I think he was only in his 50s when the boosters started planning his retirement.
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But even then Mack had exactly one NC season, and that was thanks to having Vince Young. Texas will have success, they just won't have or maintain the kind of success that should be expected considering the advantages they have.
 
Buffnik said:
I think that's overblown. Coach just has to be the right fit. Mack Brown had an unbelievable run there. Of course, maybe things changed. Because it stopped working so well once they started forcing "coach in waiting" situations upon him and dividing the locker room. I think he was only in his 50s when the boosters started planning his retirement.
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I think it was a lot more than that. They would wrap up their recruiting classes by the end of players' Junior year without checking for grit. They ended up with a bunch of entitled and soft 4 and 5 stars across the entire roster.
 
Mack probably should have one two though, losing your starting QB in the first quarter of the championship game is rough, especially when you have to play a true freshman after that.
 
SuperD said:
Doesn't the California travel ban likely take expansion with any Texas schools off the table?
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CA travel ban only applies to state funded travel. As long as football makes money, it isn't state funded. So every public school athletic department in California other an UCLA is losing a ton of money, but I'd have to think money can be attributed to donations to sponsor/pay for any non-revenue sport travel as well. The G5/MWC schools should be able to keep selling no return away games to SEC schools because of the high payouts they are getting well over a million dollars.
 
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