Realignment Starting - UConn

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by Buffnik, Jun 22, 2019.

  1. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Leaving AAC to rejoin the Big East. Likely means Villanova model of football going back to FCS.

    Means more Big East expansion is likely (VCU?).

    Means UConn is out for ACC or B1G consideration.

    Means AAC will be looking to poach someone.

    Dominoes will start to fall at the G5 level, which will set the stage for what P5 decides to do for the next round of media deals (starting with B1G).

     
  2. Unleash Hell

    Unleash Hell Well-Known Member

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    I’m sure CSU fans think they will get picked up by the Big 12
     
  3. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    They put a lot of resources into trying to build up the football program with little result. They still got blasted on the field and had mostly empty seats in the stadium.

    As the cost of being competitive in BCS level football continues to go up I expect to see a significant shift from a lot of the schools on the lower end of the BCS classification.

    UConn can make a lot of money being a basketball school and limiting their football expenditures.
     
  4. Zapata

    Zapata Club Member Club Member

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    So is Uconn's Football now Independent?
     
  5. 68buffs

    68buffs Well-Known Member

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    Your first sentence sounds like you are also describing csu to a T. lol
     
  6. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    In a way I am.

    I think there is a good chance in the next decade or two that we see a complete re-alignment in college football. The P5 schools along with a few others who are willing to pay the price will be the real Division 1, This will be about 70-85 schools. Low end happens if we see the current conference system collapse and some weaker programs that don't have the revenue potential get dumped. Schools like Kansas, Oregon State, etc.

    D2 will be the majority of the current G5 programs (including most of the MWC) and the top end of the current FCS. D3 will be the current lower FCS schools and most of the current D2.

    As the money continues to get bigger the division between the haves and have nots does as well. Schools like CSU are operating on less than 1/3 of the budgets of a number of the top programs and 1/2 of what they have is subsidized by the school. Their chances of catching up and actually competing simply don't exist.

    At the same time the schools that would be in the new D1 are not interested in sharing more money with the lower end schools and also don't like the idea of the rules being made by a bunch of schools that in terms of athletics are not comparable. At some point do those schools get together and say "Do it our way or we leave and you get nothing."
     
  7. DeNiro

    DeNiro My Dixie Wrecked Club Member

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    They haven't officially said what their plans are, but there is some speculation.

     
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  8. DeNiro

    DeNiro My Dixie Wrecked Club Member

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    There is also this from Randy Edsall:

     
  9. SpacemanSpiff

    SpacemanSpiff Fairways and greens Club Member

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    Something
    Something
    Accretive!
     
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  10. Not Sure

    Not Sure Club Member Club Member

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    The subject of conference realignment comes up and Nik be all like...

    [​IMG]
     
  11. TSchekler

    TSchekler Club Member Club Member

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    The subject of conference realignment comes up and Not Sure be all like...
    [​IMG]
     
  12. buffedup

    buffedup Cooler than a Popsicle Stand. Club Member

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    Fify tldr version.
     
  13. HotRack

    HotRack Rez BubbleHead Club Member

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    Read an article in Virginian Pilot today about ODU's meteoric rise (especially in football) $65 million stadium reno, P5 schools on schedule in most all non-con games and basketball doing well, etc.
    What was interesting though, is despite all this growth in the last 10 years, the AD is keeping it real saying that P5 is well out of reach and their #1 goal is to be the strongest G5 program out there and let the chips fall where they will.
    Interesting take on all the conference shuffling.
     
  14. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    Is it sustainable though without P5 media money?
     
  15. onealcd

    onealcd Club Member Club Member

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    Awesome. Love big east basketball.
     
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  16. HotRack

    HotRack Rez BubbleHead Club Member

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    They're working within the known of G5 media contracts. Plus, ODU has a fairly strong donor base for a G5 school.
    My point was that they know their place in the greater landscape of college athletics (specifically football) and are working towards being the best program in G5 without distracting themselves with dreams of P5.
     
  17. Big Jim

    Big Jim WTF? Club Member

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    This is good for CU as ODU is now a D-line powerhouse and the Buffs can skim off of their riches.
     
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  18. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    Smart on their part rather than engage in some fantasy that they are going to be invited into the "big time" like a number of G5 schools seem to be doing.

    I just wonder though the actual viability financially of trying to stay at the top of the G5. If the school and the donors are willing to put in $20+ million a year to do it without the expectation of eventually generating that money from other sources then that's their decision.

    Boise State which has been arguably the most successful non P5 program over the last 20 year is proud of the fact that their subsidy is "only" $12.6 million dollars.

    https://247sports.com/college/boise...Many-Peers-Including-Univ-Of-Idaho-119939940/
     
  19. ahoelsken

    ahoelsken Well-Known Member

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    Kansas's basketball program is enough to keep it where it is.
     
  20. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    As bad as they have been at football basketball has been the only thing saving them. In a big re-alignment though they along with some other B12 schools could get pushed.

    All of this is early speculation but considering the way the money is moving something big is going to have to happen. As much as they want to maintain the illusion of being big time eventually schools like CSU, Wyoming, Utah State, etc. are going to have to admit that they can't keep up and look for a better alternative. At the same time the schools that are generating the money are going to get fed up with carrying and answering to those that don't generate revenues competitively.

    When it happens it will likely be a football based action. There are still a lot of big time basketball schools that don't stand up in football. UConn in this thread title being a prime example. We already have the Big East as an example of a basketball conference in the upper levels without having top level football. Locally both the top of the MWC and the WCC could make an argument. Maybe in a basketball alignment the top half of each of those leagues is included in the new basketball D1 while those schools that have football play it in the new D2. (BYU may end up as one of the current non-P5 schools to be included in the new D1 .)

    All this is just throwing stuff up against the wall but I doubt that college athletics in 20 years looks a lot like it does right now. To many money factors are going to force a change.
     
  21. ahoelsken

    ahoelsken Well-Known Member

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    Agree with the crux of your post, but I think the Big 12 doesn't really have to do much RN because they've got better TV contracts than we do and are allowed to play a CCG even though they only have 10 teams. The thing that could change that calculus is West Virginia-they don't make geographical sense where they are and joining either the Big 10 or ACC in the next round of realignment in my opinion. If the Big 10 invites them, I think they're probably taking Iowa State too (Geography-stick ISU in the B1G West and WVU in the B1G East and you don't have to mess with your divisions). If the ACC gets to them first, I think Central Florida will ride WVU's coattails into that league. The Big 12 will add when they lose WVU-If WVU goes ACC, they'll backfill them with Cincinnati or Houston and not much else changes. If WVU goes Big 10, its BYU and Cincinnati or Houston.

    We need to add at least two in the next round of realignment anyway-UNLV is most likely (they will be a member of our league when the music stops IMO).........and somebody else from the MWC will come with them. UNM seems about as good a guess as anybody.
     
  22. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    Oklahoma is spending a lot of money trying to upgrade their academic reputation. They want to be seen as a legitimate research university with the eventual goal of becoming an AAU member. Texas (Sacky alert) is never happy with where they are and wants to be seen as an elite university. Potentially both could gravitate to the PAC12.

    If not they could end up going to the B1G who would gladly take them. Take those two out of the B12 and you end up with the rest of the conference scrambling because they don't have the draw (even with WVU who would be one of the first to bail as well) to come close to repeating their media deal.

    Remember that I am looking further down the road and the conference media deals all expire in the early to mid 2020's

    Las Vegas is already dominated by the PAC12 for media purposes, UNLV doesn't add much. UNM has a lot of potential but seems bent on not fulfilling it. They don't draw for their games or draw ratings on TV for football. Their basketball is strong but basketball doesn't drive the media contracts.
     
  23. ahoelsken

    ahoelsken Well-Known Member

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    I disagree on three things in your post-if they leave the Big 12, they're going independent in football, and they'd probably work out a similar arrangement with us that Notre Dame has with the ACC (playing 4-5 games a year against Pac 12 teams in football a year in return for putting the rest of their sports in our league). They've got the LHN, and they've got ESPN backing for it already. They've also got Kansas, K-State, Iowa State, TCU, Tech, and Baylor who will let them do whatever the **** they want with the conference's TV money because all but maybe Kansas (on the basis of academics and hoops only) would be headed for the MWC or AAC if UT went Indy.

    As far as UNLV, I'm going to say it again-the Raiders moving to Vegas is the greatest thing that's ever happened to UNLV athletics. They're going to become a Pac 12 school in this next round of realignment. We'll add them and somebody else from that league-UNM is the best fit in terms of geography and eyeballs. For that matter, I'd take Hawaii's football team and let them keep the rest of their sports in the Big West if for no other reason than recruiting and the extra game our teams get for going out there.

    Third, I don't see a round of realignment in 23-24 being as cataclysmic as you or maybe Nik think. WVU is going to move, and the Big 12 will do something to replace them.
     
  24. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    OU/uTerus to the $ec makes sense from an athletics and geographic standpoint, but not in terms of academics (at least for uTerus). I'm not sold that the 12pac is in play for those 2 together.
     
  25. ahoelsken

    ahoelsken Well-Known Member

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    I think we'd do a Notre Dame/ACC type of arrangement with Texas (we take everything else of theirs in return for 4-5 games a year against them in football) if they went Indy but I don't see UT allowing the LHN to folded in with the Pac 12 networks lol
     
  26. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    I think the B1G will go to 16 thru KU & OU.

    But I’ve heard rumblings that them going to 18 or 20 isn’t off the table. They really want UT and ND while having the resources to buy out the deals they’d need to for that to happen.
     
  27. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    UT and OU have a long standing connection and the alumni of both schools have strong feeling for that connection. Even when UT was in the SWC OU-UT was bigger than any other rivalries each school had.

    The LHN was in part done to keep the merger into the PAC12 from happening (see link below). When the current conference media contracts are up adding those two schools to the PAC would give a media market strong enough to match any in the nation.

    Disney is trying to cut the cost of running ESPN. The LHN has been a huge drain on the network, it just hasn't been able to find the footing to get close to breaking even. Texas has them over the barrel getting a 20 year deal out of them but I could very easily see them willing to shell out the money needed to cut their losses and move on.

    Remember that a key part of this whole thing is Texas egos and their desire to be seen as on par with Cal, Stanford, UCLA, and the rest of the PAC12 as an academic university, the B12 doesn't do that for them.
     
  28. BerkeleyBuff

    BerkeleyBuff Well-Known Member

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    There is exactly a 0.00% chance the B1G would ever invite West Virginia.
     
  29. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    Correct.
     
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  30. TSchekler

    TSchekler Club Member Club Member

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    Not doubting you, but curious as to why?
     

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