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The Next Five Games Make or Break the Season...

jgisland said:
Staples center in LA.

I think that 3-2 is a good goal, that would be a success imo.

Using KenPom's win probabilities, CU has a 9.4% chance of going 4-1 and a 19.6% chance of going 3-2.
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9.4% chance of going 4-1 using KenPom's ratings on Jan 20th, I said 3-2 should be considered a success, going 4-1 is downright impressive IMO. Dre, Ski and the Mayor really stepped up tonight, CU got some home cooking but they still had no business being in this game shooting 46.8% from the floor and only getting 2 ORB, but they still found a way to win.

CU is still going to have to win the conf tourney to get into the dance, but I like their chances as much as anybody's.
 
Ok so now that we have been successful in these 5 games, what about the next 7? Do we have to go 5-2 to have a shot at the dance? Does 7-0 put us in? if we go 4-3 but when a couple in the conference tourney can we still be a part of the madness? If we have a repeat of last year on selection day, I will be very very upset.
 
Shldr2Shldr said:
Ok so now that we have been successful in these 5 games, what about the next 7? Do we have to go 5-2 to have a shot at the dance? Does 7-0 put us in? if we go 4-3 but when a couple in the conference tourney can we still be a part of the madness? If we have a repeat of last year on selection day, I will be very very upset.
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Best to not even think about an at-large bid at this point, because it would take one hell of a run down the stretch for us to get consideration. As solid as our record is right now, the lack of quality wins is just killing us. Luckily tonight we were at least able to add another RPI-100 pelt to the resume. Unfortunately, of all teams, that loss to CSU is really hurting us right now because the Rams' RPI is sky high.

I think we should just take it in small steps: We *must* win 2/3 of these upcoming road games. If we lose in Tucson, but win in Tempe and Utah, we keep ourselves very much alive in the hunt to win the Pac. Obviously if we win all 3, we put ourselves in the drivers seat.
 
Shldr2Shldr said:
Ok so now that we have been successful in these 5 games, what about the next 7? Do we have to go 5-2 to have a shot at the dance? Does 7-0 put us in? if we go 4-3 but
when a couple in the conference tourney can we still be a part of the madness? If we have a repeat of last year on selection day, I will be very very upset.
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7-0 would put us in if we get to the conference championship game
 
We are gonna be in a postseason tournament...5-2 and the semi's of the Pac 12 might get us into Big Dance if there are no upsets in other conferences....still planning on NIT at this point
 
SECOBuffsFan said:
We are gonna be in a postseason tournament...5-2 and the semi's of the Pac 12 might get us into Big Dance if there are no upsets in other conferences....still planning on NIT at this point
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NIT is a given at this point. However, the sweep at home this weekend has us at 16-7 (8-3) now, and we can dare to start dreaming big. I wouldn't make the goal an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament, because that's totally out of our control, as we saw last year. The goal should be to win the Pac12 regular season championship. Is that a really tough goal? Absolutely, but it certainly isn't unobtainable and it's goals like these that help teams reach new heights.
 
There is no reason to think we can't win the Pac-12 tourny. This isn't the Big12, where you have to go thru KSU, Mizzou, Baylor, Kansas, Texas, etc. A good seed here and you put yourself in position to play and beat teams who aren't a buzzsaws.
 
dio said:
There is no reason to think we can't win the Pac-12 tourny. This isn't the Big12, where you have to go thru KSU, Mizzou, Baylor, Kansas, Texas, etc. A good seed here and you put yourself in position to play and beat teams who aren't a buzzsaws.
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We've won what 3 games outside of coors this year, and only 1 in the Pac-12. That is a hell of a reason to think we cant win the tourney.
 
absinthe said:
We've won what 3 games outside of coors this year, and only 1 in the Pac-12. That is a hell of a reason to think we cant win the tourney.
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I'm not saying we're favorites, but all the other teams have to play this on the road also, do they not? Almost no teams in the Pac are good on the road. I'm not saying that it is likely, but I also don't see any teams where I think the Buffs are completely out and cannot win before the game even starts.
 
Noob question: The automatic bid to the big dance is reserved for the winner of the Pac12 tourney right? Not the winner of the Pac12 regular season.
 
MrFrumpylane said:
Noob question: The automatic bid to the big dance is reserved for the winner of the Pac12 tourney right? Not the winner of the Pac12 regular season.
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Correct. But the committee would give a lot of weight to being the regular season champion.
 
I think a 5-2 regular season finish with at least one win in the conference tourney puts us in the dance, in my opinion.
 
neil29fp said:
I think a 5-2 regular season finish with at least one win in the conference tourney puts us in the dance, in my opinion.
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Those two wins have to be against two very specific teams. If they are to anybody besides OU and Zona, we are done. We cannot afford to pull another "lose to ****ing ISU" again.
 
I'm unsure of NCAA invite agreements. Anyone know if there are a set number of automatic PAC 12 bids? I would guess given the conference weakness this year that minimum may be available. So is it 1+ at large?
 
Buffs@5345' said:
I'm unsure of NCAA invite agreements. Anyone know if there are a set number of automatic PAC 12 bids? I would guess given the conference weakness this year that minimum may be available. So is it 1+ at large?
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One automatic bid. Looks like there will only be one at-large as well, and even that is certainly not a given at this point. If a couple teams really kick some ass down the stretch, the Pac might be able to miraculously get 2 at-large.
 
CVilleBuff said:
One automatic bid. Looks like there will only be one at-large as well, and even that is certainly not a given at this point. If a couple teams really kick some ass down the stretch, the Pac might be able to miraculously get 2 at-large.
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Thanks. That's what I expected.
 
I think that we will most likely get two total, unless the top 3 really pull away here down the stretch. If UW, CAL, and CU pull away in a big way and leave little doubt as to who the top three are, then I think we could get 2 at large.

For us that would start with a win at the Zona Zoo on thursday
 
The game in Tucson is gonna be a tough one. I'd really love to see the Buffs sneak away with a W over the cats, but I'll be happy with a split this week. Keep us in the hunt.
 
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