Is Plati actually, fully and completely retired now?
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Official 2023 Fall Camp Thread
- Thread starter Buffnik
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I just assumed that he died when he saw his first Well Off video.
Buff_nc
Well-Known Member
I wouldn't argue with that.
This is not even a rebuild of a program, it is essentially starting from scratch.
Prime and his staff have done an amazing job of finding and bringing in talent across the board but there are a number of positions where it appears to be a significant drop off from the starter or top of the rotation and the depth.
QB is maybe the toughest position to find guys. Fortunately Prime had a connection with a good one but a proven back-up wasn't something he found.
As it stands though is our back up situation any worse than our starters would have been had Dorrell been here another year.
At no point have I said that we shouldn't be concerned about what we have if Shedeur misses some time, only that most college programs don't have a second QB who inspires much confidence.
I purposely stay away from national narratives that don’t impact handicapping. However, I think it’s a mistake to say that Colorado’s depth this season is average for a bowl eligible team (forget elite). My predictive metrics have this team with a win range from 3 to 9 depending on the scope of losses from injury. That floor and ceiling have raised after learning more about the team’s composition.
If the Well Off videos didn't do it the changes to food selection available in the Champions Center did.
As fans, gambling or not, it is worth remembering that as drastic as the changes in the program have been this is still a process that is not close to completed.
There are still some individual positions where even the starters are not at the level that the staff is aiming for and has found at others. There are also positions where the drop off in quality to the depth is huge.
In some cases they didn't find the guys they wanted and had to bring in the guys they could get. In some others they took chances on guys who have high ceilings but haven't developed to those ceilings (and some never will.)
We have been so bad for so long that it is on one hand hard to believe that the program has turned around as significantly as it has but on the other hand to see all the positive changes and recognize that a lot more still needs to be done.
A win range of 3 to 9 would make it seem that worst case scenario injury attrition has them winning three games with the talent to win 9 games at absolute best case injury attrition. Assuming standard injury attrition, save for QB, and it would seem logical that your model says they have the general depth to be a 6 win bowl team.
I struggle to understand how that is anything less than average depth for a bowl eligible team. Maybe QB having such a high weighting toward the model with a severe drop off? What am I missing?
Probably not as bad as the 2022 Buffs. Or the 2021 Buffs.
I am a big Kool-Aid drinker, and think we are going to surprise the national media with how well we do. That being said, there are some concerns coming based on the camp reports:
RB - all of the press is about Edwards, and then the next RB mentioned is Offerdahl. Not hearing anything about McCaskill or Smoke is concerning to me. I think Edwards will be one hell of a weapon, but I don't think he can survive a 12 game season as the featured back. I assume McCaskill is being brought along slowly, but I hoped he would be getting some contact and scrimmage time at this point. Never hearing Smoke brought up really concerns me.
LB - On the reports about the defense there is a lot written about the secondary and D-line. The lack of press about the LB's has me a bit nervous. The LB coach has really been the only one to talk about them during his press conference. The videos from DNVR and Adam don't spend much time on the LB's. Maybe they aren't an issue, but the definitely don't get brought up as a strength.
OL - O'Boyle indicated that if Brown was approved by the NCAA he would start. Without him it feels like we are down one starter out of the gate. We could have 8 OL on board with all 5 starters, but instead we are at 7 with 4 starters. That feels like the potential difference between an upright SS, and a QB scrambling first.
DL - After Cokes and Bishop there seems to be a void. Am hopeful McNeill and Payne provide something, but it sounds like there is a huge difference between the 1's and 2's. I have been hopeful that Main is a 3rd down pass rushing force, but his name hasn't been coming up in any press reports either.
TE - honestly are we even going to put a TE out there? Seems like the two top guys working back from injury, and may not be ready for weeks.
WR/CB/S/QB #1 all seem to be in a good place right now.
RB - all of the press is about Edwards, and then the next RB mentioned is Offerdahl. Not hearing anything about McCaskill or Smoke is concerning to me. I think Edwards will be one hell of a weapon, but I don't think he can survive a 12 game season as the featured back. I assume McCaskill is being brought along slowly, but I hoped he would be getting some contact and scrimmage time at this point. Never hearing Smoke brought up really concerns me.
LB - On the reports about the defense there is a lot written about the secondary and D-line. The lack of press about the LB's has me a bit nervous. The LB coach has really been the only one to talk about them during his press conference. The videos from DNVR and Adam don't spend much time on the LB's. Maybe they aren't an issue, but the definitely don't get brought up as a strength.
OL - O'Boyle indicated that if Brown was approved by the NCAA he would start. Without him it feels like we are down one starter out of the gate. We could have 8 OL on board with all 5 starters, but instead we are at 7 with 4 starters. That feels like the potential difference between an upright SS, and a QB scrambling first.
DL - After Cokes and Bishop there seems to be a void. Am hopeful McNeill and Payne provide something, but it sounds like there is a huge difference between the 1's and 2's. I have been hopeful that Main is a 3rd down pass rushing force, but his name hasn't been coming up in any press reports either.
TE - honestly are we even going to put a TE out there? Seems like the two top guys working back from injury, and may not be ready for weeks.
WR/CB/S/QB #1 all seem to be in a good place right now.
According to my model, 3 wins is what this team can expect assuming Shedeur plays 12 games. Beyond that, injury to key players in other positions and ball bounces determine if the team can win 4+. The team has very poor DL and OL depth. We barely have enough players to have a normal rotation on the DL. We have major questions about stopping the short/intermediate pass game when not in nickle or dime defenses. This will be exploited by our opponents.
My model strongly disfavors teams who play opponents who have a strong QB and/or a strong running game and/or run defense.
Here’s my rank on depth issues. Welcome any thoughts from all.
1) QB2
2) TE1 and 2
3) OT3
4) OG3 (assuming Brown is out)
5) C2
6) CB3
5) NT2
6) DT2 and 3
I’ll stop there.
Medford M.
Well-Known Member
Not everyone is gonna get brought up during camp. That's just silly to think that because a guy hadn't been mentioned that he must not be any good. As for McCaskill and Smoke...go look at DNVR's projected depth chart. They've seen practices and talked to coaches, and they have those two as first and second string.
Medford M.
Well-Known Member
My thoughts on the depth issues? If still rank the guys we have questions about as a couple steps beyond guys we had starting last year.
True. But that’s a low bar.
The back-ups will either develop or be pushed out next cycle. I think we might be surprised at the number of these depth pieces that end up being really good players a year from now (this is also intended to imply that they could be substantially better as this season progresses). Progress at this program under CP is been rapid, and I don’t know why we’d view development of players any differently. All in all, still a damn miracle where where we are today vs. 10 months ago.
I don’t have any idea what to expect until I see the first two games. But I know we are going to be faster than last year, the starting QB and WRs are going to be better, and the W/L record is going to be better. Beyond that it’s hard to tell what’s what because it’s all just been practice up to now.
Really? My Model just lays in bed all day and wins every time.
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I'd put TE1 and 2 at the very bottom of this list. In Sean Lewis' offense, TE is mostly an afterthought. I'm much more concerned about the next guy up if one of the tackles or guards goes down, or any of the defensive depths you listed, than the likely 5th option on most passing downs (X, Y, F, Edwards out of the backfield, TE in order of option).
You must be new here. Bless your heart.
Yes, good point.
Medford M.
Well-Known Member
I'm not new, but I agree with him
I'm pretty good with our C2 and CB3. I wouldn't have them on the list, especially CB3 (C2 gets a bit more challenging if Brown isn't cleared since our C2 could start at OG). My biggest concern with depth outside of QB is at ILB. Also, it's not TE depth I'm concerned about - I think it's fine - but I don't think we have a 3-down starter in the mix.
Naw man, I’ve been here forever. I’m barely 35 any more, just hanging on by a thread.
Too many complete unknowns to expect any kind of conventional model to come up with a prediction this year. All new players and new coaching staff, yes history will tell you don’t expect much. How can you really even assess our “depth” at some of these positions.
I will make my bold prediction: 7-5 and a bowl game.
My back of the envelope take: 50 transfers and 22 recruits means Prime has condensed 3 years of recruiting classes into one off season and we are really loaded at lots of positions, especially the skill positions. Also really proven assistant coaches and high commitment to building a winning program now, not years from now. I feel like we will be like the 1986 Buffs once they had the 83, 84, and 85 recruits And McCartney started figuring out a team identity.
I don’t use a conventional model. My model rates every player, logs referee tendencies, and simulates game outcomes. I’ve expanded my NCAAF player pool since transfers are such a major iteration of the game. That’s why I find your characterization of the model as a Rube Goldberg machine to be… interesting.
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