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ACC TV deal signed with ESPN; implications for Pac 10

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by Sportsfan101, May 17, 2010.

  1. Sportsfan101

    Sportsfan101 Active Member

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    ACC just reached an agreement with ESPN that topped expectations and potentially makes Pac-10 expansion less likely. The better deal the Pac-10 can cut as a 10-team league, the less reason there is to expand.

    ACC just sealed a 12-year, $1.86 billion deal with ESPN. It includes broadcast rights for football and basketball and averages out to $155 million/season.

    Pac 10 will not in all likelihood equal the ACC's per-year revenue figure. Why? ACC footprint covers more TV households, and ACC bball is worth more than Pac 10 bball.


    From Pac 10's perspective, some good news is that ACC more than doubled its existing contract (from $67 million annually). Plus, Fox entered bidding war, which promised a game of the week on Fox (the network channel) plus more games on Fox Sports and FX. Moreover, ESPN didn't get NCAA tourney rights, which means it has $$$ to burn.

    Currently, the Pac 10's TV deal with Fox is worth $43 million annually. Compare to #s below:

    Pac-10 current deal: $43 million annually.
    ACC old deal: $67 million annually.
    ACC new deal: $155 million annually (football and basketball).
    Big 12 current deal: $73 million annually.
    Big Ten current deal: $165 million annually.
    SEC current deal: $205 million annually.

    It appears Larry Scott at Pac 10 will be able to corral in excess of $100 million annually. This is a huge jump, but Pac 10's current TV deal is artificially low.

    IN SUM -- If TV rights $ is out there, in my humble opinion, likelihood of Pac 10 expanion goes down.
     
  2. Junction

    Junction Moderator Club Member

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    The variable there is that the ACC is a 12 team league with a championship game. The Pac-10, right now is not (which is likely why they've been looking at expansion in the first place). The question is, how much will that affect what they can get out of a new deal? If their new deal is bigger than the old one, but still substantially less than they could get as a 12 team league (with more markets added), they still have significant incentive to expand...
     
  3. MrFrumpylane

    MrFrumpylane Well-Known Member

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    On the bright side, this should debunk concerns of a Pac10 - ACC merger, thus keeping CU in the spotlight.
     
  4. Sportsfan101

    Sportsfan101 Active Member

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    Yes but the Pac 10 has talked about petitioning the NCAA to allow a 10 team league to hold a CCG. Also, a 2x multiple is pretty good for the ACC, so it concerns me that the Pac 10 could see a similar jump without expansion. Of course, there are different ways to spin the numbers, but this is how I see it.
     
  5. Clean Undies

    Clean Undies Flagship of the 12-Pac Club Member

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    Using the ACC's 2.3 multiplier on the B12, Dan Beebe should be looking at around $170M, or $14M per team. $17M per team is the SEC high bar.

    The Pac10 isn't going to settle for a 2.3 multiplier. Anything short of $150M would be a loss, IMO.
     
  6. Junction

    Junction Moderator Club Member

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    The Pac-10 can petition for whatever they want. Doesn't mean they'll get it. It would be interesting to see what the NCAA does on that, though, with all the expansion talk going on. They can definitely use that rule to influence conference expansion whichever way they want (which will be the direction of most $$$$$$$, the NCAA being the NCAA...). But if they do get that request, I'll agree expansion might be off the table for them.

    As for the ACC deal, the key comparison for the Pac-10 isn't between what they're getting now and what they can get without expanding. It's what they can get without expanding and what they can get by expanding. That's what their decision will be based on, and the ACC deal probably doesn't tell us much on that one...
     
  7. buffedup

    buffedup Cooler than a Popsicle Stand. Club Member

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    This doesn't show me anything to derail Pac 10 expansion. A little old thing called inflation happens, and TV contracts for broadcast rights to team sports have been exploding at a lot faster rate than your normal inflation index. The Big 10 is still to me the driver in this race and they are expanding.
     
    Last edited: May 17, 2010
  8. CarolinaBuff

    CarolinaBuff Weekend Poster Club Member

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    I can't imagine that the existence of the ACC Championship game carried that much weight in the new deal given how unsuccessful the game has been in its first 4 years, both in ratings and in the stands. I did see where the game is going to prime time this year and it has been moved to a more central location in Charlotte, but still I can't imagine it doing much better there if it's someone like FSU-GT or Miami-BC. Even some of the somewhat local schools like Wake or GT wouldn't make for a sellout.
     
  9. ScottyBuff

    ScottyBuff Well-Known Member

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    If anything I think this actually forces MORE pressure on the Pac-10 for expansion, as now they get less than half of what ACC members get, let alone the SEC or Big Ten.

    If the conventional wisdom was that a "bigger" Big Ten with mega-millions from TV contracts, and a super-rich SEC were putting pressure on the Pac-10/Big 12 then it backs them even further into a corner now.

    Yes the Pac-10 has large markets, but their product doesn't drive high ratings (at least comparable to the other conferences). They have a great team of leaders pushing to get maximum value for their rights but they would have to nearly triple their rights to get into the "top 4".

    Doubling or tripling the value of the annual TV deal doesn't make expansion more or less of an option. Adding large TV markets and doubling/tripling the new value is still a great move on their part.

    The conference will still look at "X" dollars for 10 teams versus "X+Y" dollars for 12 teams and decide. They will not just accept an increase just for the sake of an increase, that was Tom Hansen's policy not Larry Scott and Co.
     
  10. ScottyBuff

    ScottyBuff Well-Known Member

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    IMO the ACC deal was very much tilted towards hoops. With the imminent demise of the Big East membership the ACC basketball rights became even more valuable.

    Very nice to see Fox Sports get aggressive in the process however, that could pay off big time for either or both the Pac-10 and Big 12.
     
  11. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    PAC 10 expansion would give them the championship game without an exemption from the NCAA which I don't think they would get. It would also give them a bigger TV footprint with Denver being a top 20 market and SLC or Albequrque rapidly growing markets with very good demographics. The PAC would then be able to claim the Rocky Mountains and everything west as their market of dominant influence.

    From a media standpoint the PAC stands to gain a lot from expansion, the only question is if the payouts to the new members exceed the benefits, my best appraisal is that expansion would be a financial benefit to the league.
     
  12. GoBuffs08

    GoBuffs08 Well-Known Member

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    :yeahthat:
     
  13. Clean Undies

    Clean Undies Flagship of the 12-Pac Club Member

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    A joint B10-Pac10 media contract would be monumental. With the rose bowl tie in, these 2 conferences have a storied history together.

    It might screw the B12, or it might force the B12 to hook up with the SEC on a joint deal of their own. Sweet.
     
  14. CarolinaBuff

    CarolinaBuff Weekend Poster Club Member

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    I agree because I can't imagine the ACC getting a big TV contract like that based on their football success, or lack of it.
     
  15. NashBuff

    NashBuff CSU Knob-Slobberer

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    It doesn't shock me that the ACC got a new big TV deal. I honestly don't expect the Big 12 to really surpass the ACC even if it is a medicore football conference...just come close. Just imagine what the Big 12 could do if MU and NU leave and the Big 12 adds Louisville and Memphis.
     
  16. OKCBuff

    OKCBuff Well-Known Member

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    I realize this deal for the ACC was more based on their hoops, but to me it sends a message to the Pac-10 that they need two more teams and a title game. No way the NCAA allows the championship-game petition to fly -- too many conferences have played by the rules getting to 12 and they would be pissed. This should show the Pac-10 its time to just get on with it and add CU and UU.
     
  17. NashBuff

    NashBuff CSU Knob-Slobberer

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    Amen to that.

    I won't be shocked if the TV networks are basically telling the Pac-10 they need two more teams or they won't shell out the $$$ that the Pac-10 is hoping for.

    Again, this puts a Pac-10 and ACC alliance to rest. Now if Louisville and possibly Cinncinnati replaces MU and NU in the Big 12, a Pac-10 and Big 12 TV alliance would cover ALL FOUR TIMEZONES on the mainland. That could mean a monster TV deal for both conferences.
     

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