1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Analyzing Sefo's 2014 stats

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by Buffnik, Jul 25, 2015.

  1. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2009
    Messages:
    80,675
    Likes Received:
    16,366
    2014 Stats
    3200 yards (29th in the nation)
    65.3% complete (tie 18th in the nation)
    6.43 YPA (95th in the nation)
    28 TDs (tie 17th in the nation)
    15 INTs (tie 10th most in the nation)
    18 Sacks (tie 84th least in the nation)
    131.8 Rating (65th in the nation)

    http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/550278/sefo-liufau
    http://espn.go.com/college-football...assing/sort/collegeQuarterbackRating/count/41

    First point I want to make is that, as I said back in January, I didn't appreciate how good of a QB that Sefo is until I watched the bowl games. He was better as a soph than most of the bowl quarterbacks I watched. My perception hadn't been that, almost certainly because of what I was used to seeing. The Pac-12 was absolutely loaded at QB in 2014 and CSU's Grayson was also a high NFL pick. Sefo was mediocre compared to what I saw every week, but that made him one of the better QBs in the nation.

    In 2015, the Pac-12 QBs aren't what they were last season and CSU also takes a major step back. Relative to competition, even if Sefo makes no progress from 2014 he is one of the good ones.

    But where do we need to see improvement?

    The numbers are pretty clear. In fact, they pretty much scream out and my mother could do this analysis.

    He needs to maintain the things he has done very well while increasing the big plays and mid-range completions to get that YPA up.

    While doing so, Sefo needs to cut down on the INTs. With those INTs, we also had 6 fumbles by him on only 70 carries (which includes the 18 sacks in the college stats). http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/sefo-liufau-player-game-log 21 turnovers in 11 games started is double what we want to see in 2015.

    Also from those stats on foxsports, they have him at 19 sacks for -114 yards (incorrectly counting a negative rush as a sack). So, outside of those 19 plays, he ran the ball 51 times for 140 yards. Figuring there are sneaks and kneel downs in that number, he was somewhat effective when he ran the ball on read option or scramble. I think we all remember some plays that kept the defense honest and stole some free yards. Sefo's not a runner. It's never going to be a featured weapon in his game. But I think the signs were there that he can be effective at times and give the Buffs 3 or 4 carries a game that help to move the chains. He's got to be good at picking his spots and taking advantage of the defense when it's there.

    Next, a lot of this does come down to the team around him. We didn't see much in terms of a short route being busted by our RBs or WRs to turn it into a big gain. That's got to change in 2015. And that's also influenced by having a running game that opposing LBs and Safeties are forced to key on, which opens up the field if that first tackle can be broken. Better blocking on screens has to happen, too.

    Last, so much comes down to Sefo's ability to read the defense and make the right throw. In his best games he didn't lock onto Spruce. And those ended up being Spruce's best games, too, because he was able to work for bigger plays instead of catching a dozen 8-yard comebacks with a couple DBs draped on him. Finding the right guy is what is going to open up those intermediate pass plays and get the YPA way up without sacrificing completion percentage. Also, not forcing the ball will cut down those INTs. This is probably the biggest thing: maturing into a veteran QB and making those plays. With that progression, Sefo will be one of the Top 30 QBs in the nation this season. I expect him to be just that.
     
  2. WizzersGhost

    WizzersGhost Banned BANNED

    Joined:
    Aug 30, 2012
    Messages:
    1,492
    Likes Received:
    56
    :yeahthat: An advantage that hasn't been considered: This camp Sefo will be facing an energized, attacking Leavitt "D", rather than Baer's "read and react-keep everything in front of you" style. I think that when Sefo saw the "D" in practice, one that regularly plays off your receivers, he developed a sense of "safe space" that simply wasn't there against more aggressive Pac teams. What he could recognize and do in practice, was not duplicatable in games.; that half second and space the "D" gave him in practice, wasn't there!

    I think it will be another case where Leavitt's style and energy will elevate the entire team, not just the "D".
     
  3. J.R. Ewing

    J.R. Ewing Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2011
    Messages:
    13,880
    Likes Received:
    3,611
    I hope he's getting lots of reps in with receivers not named Nelson Spruce. The Spruce tunnel vision was painful at times last year.
     
  4. 8Jah

    8Jah Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2014
    Messages:
    672
    Likes Received:
    286
    It will help also if Sefo doesn't have to throw his team out of giant holes dug by a reactive CU defense. You can pick any 2014 game, but to me the best example of this was against USC.
     
  5. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2006
    Messages:
    39,695
    Likes Received:
    4,689
    Sefo needs to be willing to take a hit to the completion percentage next year by taking more shots downfield.
     
  6. onealcd

    onealcd Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2013
    Messages:
    5,610
    Likes Received:
    1,501
    Need to attack the middle of the field. Everything was on the perimeter last year and they ran outs every other damn play.
     
  7. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2009
    Messages:
    80,675
    Likes Received:
    16,366
    There's that. A big progression Sefo can make which will happen more quickly if he faces press coverage is that he's got to learn to throw guys open.
     
  8. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2009
    Messages:
    80,675
    Likes Received:
    16,366
    I'm especially willing to make a trade off in % for YPA if the running game is there this season. Too often in 2014 the pass game was used as a replacement for a running game in order to get the Buffs on schedule with down & distance. If we can accomplish that with a hand off, the passing game can be more about going down field.
     
  9. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2008
    Messages:
    26,438
    Likes Received:
    2,343
    Two things that I hope will allow him to make major strides forward.

    One is a notably improved defense. At time last year it looked like Sefo felt he had to score a TD on every drive just to have a chance since the defense wasn't going to stop anyone. Take of some of that pressure and hopefully he can start to take the incomplete pass rather than force it in for an Int, where he can take what the D is giving him instead of trying to push the big play.

    Secondly would be with a better O-line and backs a more consistent running game. Force the defense to respect the run, put him in more favorable down and distance, take some of the pressure off him. Sometimes a QBs best play is to simply hand the ball off and let a RB do some work, Sefo hasn't had that luxury much so far.
     
  10. patebuff

    patebuff Downgraded to half a star Club Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2008
    Messages:
    7,024
    Likes Received:
    1,160
    My hope is the Devin Ross hype machine is in full affect. If it is and we can get some explosive plays from him, it will open up the underneath patterns Lindgren likes to run.

    I was very critical of Sefo last year, but he has the potential to be very good in this offense. A pure deep threat WR can go a long way.
     
  11. Bufffan68

    Bufffan68 Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2014
    Messages:
    4,219
    Likes Received:
    748
    What I remember from last season was his inconsistency at the deep ball and hitting WR on the left side of the field. A decent D will go a long way to an improved Sefo in 2015.
     
  12. Buff_since76

    Buff_since76 Still a fan... Club Member

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2009
    Messages:
    1,212
    Likes Received:
    293
    Sefo is a true junior, and a young junior at that. He continues to improve and I think/expect/hope that it continues this well as well. It is one thing to look at stats as a whole, but I like to look at game to see improvement:

    Sefo StatsTeam Rushing
    AttemptCompleteYPAYardsTDINT# of WR with catchSackedRushesYardsAverageTD
    Utah - 2013 46 23 5.2 241 2 1 6 3 25 48 1.9 -
    CSU 2014 39 24 6.2 242 2 - 5 - 34 134 3.9 -
    Utah - 2014 31 20 10.2 317 1 1 7 3 32 116 3.6 3

    If you look at where Sefo (and the team) ended in 2013, and where they ended 2014 you can see improvement (awful stat of the CSU game, Tony Jones, Philip Lindsay, & Christian Powell combined for 19 yards on 11 carries). If Sefo himself continues to improve on both the mental and physical aspect, he will have a good year.

    What he needs to have in order for the team to improve on the w/l record:
    A better defense (Top 80)
    A better running game
    A good 3rd and 4th otpion
     
  13. bigskybuff

    bigskybuff Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2011
    Messages:
    822
    Likes Received:
    442
    He would have thrown more deep passes if his line could have given him time to throw. I can't even count how many times he got nailed just as he threw the ball. Tough to go deep when you're getting killed even during short routes.

    the line will determine how often we go deep. I definitely agree he needs to see the middle of the field better but having a tight end threat would do wonders for that.
     
  14. BlackNGold

    BlackNGold Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2005
    Messages:
    4,497
    Likes Received:
    605
    Sefo has to be able to throw to his left better (teams have figured him out and are forcing him to throw where he is not comfortable), he has to move through his progressions faster - he was a fraction slow hitting players coming our of their breaks which hurt the YAC.

    He is not going to be a big long ball threat.
     
  15. DBT

    DBT Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2005
    Messages:
    58,474
    Likes Received:
    4,680
    Obviously, his decision making under duress, his interceptions, his ability to run a read/option need to get better. Although he hasn't shown much ability to run the ball. He just needs to slow the game down, which I expect to see in his junior year.
     
  16. pcbuff

    pcbuff Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2012
    Messages:
    794
    Likes Received:
    133
    My biggest concern with Sefo is who will take his place if he goes down.
     
  17. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2010
    Messages:
    26,503
    Likes Received:
    761
    That's a concern almost every school in the country would worry about
     
  18. 4DemBuffs

    4DemBuffs Most admired poster Club Member

    Joined:
    Aug 23, 2005
    Messages:
    21,705
    Likes Received:
    1,393
    I don't think other schools really are concerned who backs up Sefo.
     
  19. buffaholic

    buffaholic Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2008
    Messages:
    10,192
    Likes Received:
    1,631
    Sefo completes a whole bunch of small quick passes, by design. I've also felt he stays in the pocket and takes a hit, so I'm not implying he dumps it too early at first sign of trouble.

    Are the short completions and low sacks a function of that's all our WR's can get from the opposing D?
    Is it by design, showing a lack of confidence in the OL (despite leading the league with least sacks given up)?

    It feels to me like a combo of the above and a few more threats emerging at WR would really help this group.
     
  20. onealcd

    onealcd Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2013
    Messages:
    5,610
    Likes Received:
    1,501
    It is not despite leading the league with least sacks given up, that is the reason they had the least sacks. A lot of the times the play called for a deeper or longer route, the line couldn't hold up and the pressure got to him. The Arizona game was a good example.

    It is essentially the same as saying the Broncos had a great o-line because they didn't give up any sacks but if you watched the games their line was terrible.
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2015

Share This Page