MontanaBuff
Well-Known Member
CU’s 2009 opponents posted a 6-1 bowl record this past month.
Is a bowl victory a harbinger for success the following season?
You hear it all bowl season long from the winning coaches: “This bowl victory is not the last game of 2008; it’s the first of 2009”. It is ingrained in our psyche: a bowl win sets the stage for success the next season; a bowl loss puts a damper on the off-season, and adversely affects the following season’s results. Granted, there are many factors which play into one season playing into the next. There is, of course, the turnover in personnel, possibly a turnover in coaches, and a change in the opposition to be faced. Still, the perception remains: the team which wins its bowl game has a leg up on the following season.
All three of CU’s Big 12 North opponents in 2009 which went bowling - Nebraska, Missouri, and Kansas - won their bowl games. The two non-conference opponents for next season which went bowling - Colorado State and West Virginia - won their bowls. Only Oklahoma State amongst CU’s 2009 opponents lost its bowl game. Will that make a difference for CU in 2009?
Well, let’s take a look. Using the University of Colorado’s bowl history as our guide, our crack CU at the Game staff (okay, me), discovered the following:
The Buffs have played in 28 bowl games, accumulating a 12-16 overall record.
In the 12 seasons the Buffs have played following bowl victories, CU has accumulated an overall record of 85-51-2, or a 62.3 winning percentage. Only three times, 1968, 1997 and 2000, have the Buffs followed a bowl victory with a losing season.
In the 16 seasons the Buffs have played following bowl losses, CU has accumulated an overall record of 108-73-4, or a 59.4 winning percentage. Six times, including 2006 and 2008, the Buffs have followed a bowl loss with a losing season (the Buffs were 6-6 in 1986).
Can any conclusions be drawn? Not really. The overall winning percentage is not significantly higher in the glow of a bowl win.
Compare, however, the past 16 seasons the Buffs have played after not participating in a bowl the season before (dating back to 1975). Over that span, Colorado has accumulated a 76-87-1 record, or a 46.6 winning percentage.
Yuck.
Okay, so that overall losing record includes a desolate run during the early 80's when the Buffs were not within sniffing distance of a bowl bid. Still, it is worthy of note that a CU team which does not go bowling, or which is a bowl loser, is more likely to have a frustrating season the following year than a CU team which has posted a bowl win the season before.
Looking for a silver lining?
Colorado has not followed a bowl-less season with another bowl-less season since 1983-84.
The Buffs will bounce back in 2009! :thumbsup:
Is a bowl victory a harbinger for success the following season?
You hear it all bowl season long from the winning coaches: “This bowl victory is not the last game of 2008; it’s the first of 2009”. It is ingrained in our psyche: a bowl win sets the stage for success the next season; a bowl loss puts a damper on the off-season, and adversely affects the following season’s results. Granted, there are many factors which play into one season playing into the next. There is, of course, the turnover in personnel, possibly a turnover in coaches, and a change in the opposition to be faced. Still, the perception remains: the team which wins its bowl game has a leg up on the following season.
All three of CU’s Big 12 North opponents in 2009 which went bowling - Nebraska, Missouri, and Kansas - won their bowl games. The two non-conference opponents for next season which went bowling - Colorado State and West Virginia - won their bowls. Only Oklahoma State amongst CU’s 2009 opponents lost its bowl game. Will that make a difference for CU in 2009?
Well, let’s take a look. Using the University of Colorado’s bowl history as our guide, our crack CU at the Game staff (okay, me), discovered the following:
The Buffs have played in 28 bowl games, accumulating a 12-16 overall record.
In the 12 seasons the Buffs have played following bowl victories, CU has accumulated an overall record of 85-51-2, or a 62.3 winning percentage. Only three times, 1968, 1997 and 2000, have the Buffs followed a bowl victory with a losing season.
In the 16 seasons the Buffs have played following bowl losses, CU has accumulated an overall record of 108-73-4, or a 59.4 winning percentage. Six times, including 2006 and 2008, the Buffs have followed a bowl loss with a losing season (the Buffs were 6-6 in 1986).
Can any conclusions be drawn? Not really. The overall winning percentage is not significantly higher in the glow of a bowl win.
Compare, however, the past 16 seasons the Buffs have played after not participating in a bowl the season before (dating back to 1975). Over that span, Colorado has accumulated a 76-87-1 record, or a 46.6 winning percentage.
Yuck.
Okay, so that overall losing record includes a desolate run during the early 80's when the Buffs were not within sniffing distance of a bowl bid. Still, it is worthy of note that a CU team which does not go bowling, or which is a bowl loser, is more likely to have a frustrating season the following year than a CU team which has posted a bowl win the season before.
Looking for a silver lining?
Colorado has not followed a bowl-less season with another bowl-less season since 1983-84.
The Buffs will bounce back in 2009! :thumbsup: