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Bubble Watch - Saturday 3/12

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by Buffnik, Feb 23, 2011.

  1. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Boston College lost at home to Miami. They're probably done.

    New Mexico is hosting UNLV in a tight one (first half still).

    CSU is at BYU. 9 minutes to play and BYU has extended to double digits.

    Auburn is up double digits at Alabama with 11 minutes to play. (We need a 'Bama loss.)

    Missouri is up double digits in the 1st half on Baylor. (We need Mizzou to win.)

    KSU is up double figures on Nebraska in the 1st half at home. (We really need KSU.)

    Maryland is hosting Florida State. 1st half and close. (FSU's got the better resume right now, so we probably want Maryland.)
     
  2. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

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    so if KSU and Mizzou both win, we move into a tie for 5th in the Big 12?
     
  3. CarolinaBuff

    CarolinaBuff Weekend Poster Club Member

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    New Mexico is in as equally bad shape as we are at this point. They still have their big shot against BYU (who they already beat) and we have ours against Texas.
     
  4. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Edit:

    6th. Tied with Baylor and Nebraska. KSU would be in 5th at 7-6.
     
  5. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Another one that helped us tonight was Michigan losing at home to Wisconsin.
     
  6. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    BYU just closed out CSU. Rams fall to 18-9 (8-5).

    If UNLV wins at New Mexico (up 6 at halftime), they take a half game lead over CSU for 3rd in the MWC and also drop UNM out of the bubble picture as they'd fall to 17-11 (5-8).
     
  7. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Bama held on. They did nothing out of conference, but at 19-8 (11-2) they've got to be on the right side of the bubble right now.
     
  8. RK

    RK UBL Club Member

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    Mizzou up 21 with a minute, left that ones over. Good for the buffs
     
  9. Junction

    Junction Moderator Club Member

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    But 9th in RPI. #92 nationally (at least before tonight, and Tech's terrible RPI will probably hurt as much as the win helps...).

    Watching how RPI has ranked the Big XII teams this year, it's getting pretty obvious that the formula revolves WAAAAAY too much around non-conference SOS. Okie Lite, 4-9 in conference and tied for 9th is still sitting 6th in RPI among Big XII teams... CU's problem is that the played 6 teams ranked below 300 in RPI, OSU has played 2.
     
  10. Idot Buff

    Idot Buff Club Member Club Member

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    The irony....maybe we should have lost to these rednecks to improve our position? Pathetic
     
  11. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Our non-con SOS is hurting us for sure. And you're right. It's not that we needed to play Duke or Ohio State. It's that we needed to play teams like Wyoming and Denver instead of Alcorn State and Maryland-Eastern Shore.

    The win over Tech definitely helps, though. Basic calculation of RPI is your win % against D1 opponents, the D1 records of those opponents, and the D1 records of your opponents' opponents. A win over Tech at least scores on 2 of the 3 criteria (and your own win % is the most important).
     
  12. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    **** the RPI, lets go beat some ass and go dancing.
     
  13. Idot Buff

    Idot Buff Club Member Club Member

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    Grand idea.....let's win out, including the Big 12 Tourney....
     
  14. Junction

    Junction Moderator Club Member

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    Just looked up the Pomeroy rankings, and the Buffs are #63 (assume that's before tonight). That actually puts them ahead of Okie Lite, and just 2-3 spots behind Baylor.

    At this point Snow has the best idea, though. We're not getting an at-large bid barring a miracle. Let's just go kick some ass and play our way into the tourney...
     
  15. RK

    RK UBL Club Member

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    I think whoever plays the best to finish out the season and in the b12 tourney out of us, nubs, and baylor gets in
     
  16. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Oh. My. Ullr. Do we have a new sigline for snow? :smile2:
     
  17. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Kansas State won at Nebraska 61-57.

    Tweet of the night:

    espn4d Pat Forde
    The end of Kansas State-Nebraska setting basketball back 2 million years.

    :lol:
     
  18. dyemeduke

    dyemeduke Well-Known Member

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    duke hater and all, I like Pat Forde.

    Seriously, I don't think we're getting a lot of Big 12 teams in this year. I think we're getting four teams in, maybe five. Typically we get six if not seven, but this year, Big 12 bball was not that great.
     
  19. Junction

    Junction Moderator Club Member

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    Totally disagree. Records aren't that great because the conference is damn deep. But all in all, it's been the second best b-ball conference in the country behind the Big East. 5 bids is pretty much a given (UT, KU, aTm, Mizzou, most likely KjSU). Baylor has a great shot with a good finish. If they don't finish well, CU or UNL would probably have to make a tourney run to get a sixth bid. But in a conference that doesn't have 11 teams that are competitive with anyone on a given night (which the Big XII has), there are probably 8-9 Big XII teams that would put together enough wins to get in.
     
  20. Junction

    Junction Moderator Club Member

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    Only if you want to prove my sigline right... :smile2:
     
  21. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    UNLV won at New Mexico. Bad night for CSU's tourney hopes.
     
  22. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    I wouldn't put the Big 12 ahead of the Big 10 this year. Ohio State, Wisconsin and Purdue are all legit. Michigan State is now starting to turn it on. If they knock off Purdue this weekend, watch out. It probably means they're gearing up for at least a Sweet 16 run.
     
  23. dyemeduke

    dyemeduke Well-Known Member

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    I think you disagreed with the first post I ever had on these boards, so I guess this is expected :thumbsup:

    UT, KU, aTm, Mizzou are in, and either KSU or Baylor COULD make a fifth. I honestly don't think a fifth team is a given, but most likely you're right - the Big 12 will get 5 teams in. Maybe I'll get made like a fool in the tournament (which has definitely happened before), but outside of UT, I don't think any Big 12 team is going to E8...but this will depend a lot on seeding of course.

    I think the Big East is getting at least 10 teams in, and I think we're going to see a lot of teams outside of the Big 6 conferences get in. Which brings me to another bubble team - CSU. They played well tonight against BYU, and I think if they finish really strong, they're in. Yes, I think the Mountain West is going to get at least four, potentially FIVE teams in - BYU, SDSU, UNM, UNLV and CSU. (CSU looks better than UNM right now) They are a good team - hate them all you want, but I take my hat off to Coach Miles and his team. Now, if only CSU fans would shut the **** up, because undoubtedly they're going to get arrogant and talk ****.
     
  24. dyemeduke

    dyemeduke Well-Known Member

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    I'm not so sure about that...they played BYU tough. With two top ten teams, the MW could get at least four teams in. CSU is sitting a lot better than CU is right now.
     
  25. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    MWC isn't getting 5 teams in. BYU and SDSU are locks. UNLV just needs to beat who they're supposed to and they're in. New Mexico is done (losing conference record). CSU could make it 4, but assuming they'll lose to SDSU to close the year they'll have to get a couple wins in the conference tourney.
     
  26. dyemeduke

    dyemeduke Well-Known Member

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    I completely agree. The Big 10 doesn't have the depth of the Big East, but their top three, I'd take against the Big East's top three. Illinois and Michigan are also decent teams this year too.
     
  27. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Pretty much everyone had them among the first 4 out before the night started. UNLV taking over 3rd place in the conference standings and CSU losing can't really be called a good night.

    What are your thoughts on the ACC? Is FSU still a tourney lock after getting crushed by Maryland tonight? Is there anyone else among BC, MD, Clem, Miami, VaTech you think is tourney worthy (or likely to turn it on and get the invite)?

    Edit: P.S. I think that North Carolina has the pieces to surprise people with a deep tourney run this year.
     
  28. Junction

    Junction Moderator Club Member

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    Definitely a possibility, but they're pretty similar. Just looking at the Pomeroy rankings, the Big Televen teams rank

    1
    5
    8
    23
    39
    43
    51
    52
    62
    71
    83

    Big XII teams are

    3
    4
    24
    38
    42
    45
    60
    63
    78
    84
    126
    135

    The Big XII has a couple crappier teams at the bottom, but 1-10 basically the only difference is that the Big Televen has a third top 10 team. Maybe I should say the Big XII was the third best conference in the country, but the point still stands that it's pretty unfair to say it's not very good.
     
  29. dyemeduke

    dyemeduke Well-Known Member

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    I know I sound a little idiotic (I do admit I didn't realize they've lost four in a row as I type), but still, they win out their last three games, including BYU, and they'll be 500 conference with two big wins (both over BYU). If they make their championship game...who knows? Yes, I sound crazy...and I probably am...but just saying - MW may get more bids than anyone would have thought (three is probably what most people think).
     
  30. Junction

    Junction Moderator Club Member

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    Three is most likely. 4-5 are possible, if CSU and UNM make big tourney runs. But, by that argument, if Baylor and UNL make big tourney runs the Big XII could conceivably get 7. Sure, one of those teams might take a spot from KjSU, but UNLV could just as easily be a victim of runs by CSU and UNM...
     

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