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Buffnik's Pick em Leaders - Final Standings

NeverGiveIn

NeverGiveIn

Confused by the facts
Hello all you loyal AllBufferinos,

Let's have a round of applause for Buffnik who once again ran a very nice "Pick Em Challenge" this year, lotta fun, good games, had a few laughs.....

I'm going to be posting some info below about how we all (both as a group and against each other) performed, for those who are interested. I think next year if I'm still alive I'll do a halfway analysis based on Buffnik's Pick Em Challenge and a final one.

Stay tuned, stats to come below!

(I'll plan to post one summary statistic per day until I'm out of stats)
 
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For the below analyses, I took out people who only played 1 or 2 weeks worth of the challenge, which left 24 players who played 3+ weeks. The only time I let two people share a rank is when it was literally the exact same percentage, (as opposed to it rounds to the same percentage, but actually different numbers).

Average Points Per Week
1. AeroBuff99 (40.9)
2. NeverGiveIn (40.2)
3. married2abuff (39.5) & rscmac (39.5)
4. Tschekler (39.4)
5. CarolinaBuff (39.4)
6. Uncle Luko (39.3)
7. Highlander (39.2)
8. leftybuff (38.9)
9. BuffinCali (38.3)
10. cmgoods (38.2)
11. CUBuff98 (38.1)
12. BuffaloBrad (38.0)
13. hokiehead (37.9)
14. BuffUp (37.7)
15. ahoelsken (37.3)
16. onealcd (37.2)
17. buffaholic (37.0)
18. Buff_since76 (36.3)
19. LSX Buff (35.4)
20. dwyermj (35.1)
21. Buffnik (35.1)
22. BehindEnemyLines (33.0)
23. Bass (30.8)
 
BehindEnemyLines said:
Man, I suck at this.
Click to expand...
You know what it would be interesting to calculate what the "vegas picks" would have been, and how they would have performed. I guess you could find the betting favored team and list the spread, and choose the team based on that and the ranks based on the pre-game spread.....but man that sounds like a lot of work. But frickin interesting. Gurdurn it why do I do this to myself. I think I'm pathologically curious - come one NGI you have ACTUAL stuff to do....

But you gotta remember man, everyone's got a different method for how they make their picks, all the way from just gut instinct to reading every prediction and analysis article there is.
 
Ok folks, it's a new day (where I live), and I know what you're wondering - yeah, well the points per week thing is really really interesting, but it's not fair, because people who played every week have more experience and they pay more attention, so I bet they do better.

....so after so many requests that I can't even count (because technically they don't exist), here is how the people who played every week (of whom there were 5) ranked as far as average points per week:

Average Points Per Week
1. TSchekler (39.4)
2. Highlander (39.2)
3. leftybuff (38.9)
4. cmgoods (38.2)
5. Buffnik (35.1)

Tomorrow's stat: how we all (as a group pooled together) fared on average compared to the vegas line over the course of the season! And maybe I'll do a similar analysis looking at the scramble - i.e. our best performance each week vs. the vegas line! Ooooo.....interesting!
 
NeverGiveIn said:
Ok folks, it's a new day (where I live), and I know what you're wondering - yeah, well the points per week thing is really really interesting, but it's not fair, because people who played every week have more experience and they pay more attention, so I bet they do better.

....so after so many requests that I can't even count (because technically they don't exist), here is how the people who played every week (of whom there were 5) ranked as far as average points per week:

Average Points Per Week
1. TSchekler (39.4)
2. Highlander (39.2)
3. leftybuff (38.9)
4. cmgoods (38.2)
5. Buffnik (35.1)

Tomorrow's stat: how we all (as a group pooled together) fared on average compared to the vegas line over the course of the season! And maybe I'll do a similar analysis looking at the scramble - i.e. our best performance each week vs. the vegas line! Ooooo.....interesting!
Click to expand...
Pretty cool. With my point total, I would still have beat Nik even without scoring a single point on the first week and would have only needed 22 points that first week to top Tschekler. Dang wish I wasn't so busy that 1st week. You should work up the mean and std deviation for each week and the season.
 
AeroBuff99 said:
Pretty cool. With my point total, I would still have beat Nik even without scoring a single point on the first week and would have only needed 22 points that first week to top Tschekler. Dang wish I wasn't so busy that 1st week. You should work up the mean and std deviation for each week and the season.
Click to expand...
Oh don’t worry, that’s coming....gotta build some suspense. A little insider info: the last day I’m going to post a unique accomplishment of each player, as my Christmas present to you all. But jeez, some of you really made me work to find something “special” about your performance.
 
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I was robbed goddamnit lol. Better way to say it is I should listen to my gut instead of thinking about a pick too much, paralysis by analysis.
 
Uncle Luko said:
I was robbed goddamnit lol. Better way to say it is I should listen to my gut instead of thinking about a pick too much, paralysis by analysis.
Click to expand...
Never think. Hell, I finished 5th and actually won a week despite making some picks every week based on nothing more than who I wanted to win or what was better for the Buffs. And every week I picked at least 1 game where I went strongly against the conventional wisdom because if the upset happened it would give me a big leg up on all you guys.
 
Yep, exactly. Just like the Georgia, Auburn game in the regular season. My gut said Auburn, they are at home yada yada. Well I picked Georgia of course lol.
 
Buffnik said:
Never think. Hell, I finished 5th and actually won a week despite making some picks every week based on nothing more than who I wanted to win or what was better for the Buffs. And every week I picked at least 1 game where I went strongly against the conventional wisdom because if the upset happened it would give me a big leg up on all you guys.
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I often pick games based on who I want to win. It makes me hate myself less while rooting for an outcome.
 
TSchekler said:
You ever hedge a bet, by betting against the team you root for? That way, even if you lose, you still win.
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I never have. When I would bet, I'd go over/under on teams I root for. But I can't separate to be analytical well enough to make a rational win/lose or point spread bet when I'm emotionally invested in the outcome. So I'd pretty much stay away.
 
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Day 3: Ok, so we all agree AeroBuff99 & Schek probably cheated, but you know what this country needs? Unity. Heroes.

Figure 1: Our group average (everyone pooled), week to week. WITH STANDARD DEVIATIONS thank you very much AeroBuff99.
upload_2017-12-18_9-10-43.png

Figure 2: Our group average (everyone pooled), week to week, compared to how someone using ONLY the Vegas spread would have performed (the Westgate LV SuperBook). To get these point scores, took the favored team, selected them, then gave them point values based on the size of the spread.
upload_2017-12-18_9-11-13.png

Figure 3: Our best performer, week to week, pitted against the fictional Vegas player. You know, I don't like to throw the term "hero" around much, but I think we can all agree....these people are heroes.
upload_2017-12-18_9-11-43.png

Tomorrow's stat: Going to post how everyone ranked (again, with people who only played 1 or 2 weeks) according to pick accuracy. Which is to say, what percentage of your picks were correct, rather than based on points.
 
No heroes. Your standard deviation plot shows it's extremely likely that one person in the pool would beat Vegas. If it was the same person repeatedly, that would be heroic.
 
This analysis shows that you can’t win these deals going chalk with Vegas.

But going chalk won’t put you into last, either.

NGI is putting in the work to run a casino.:ROFLMAO:
 
Clean Undies said:
This analysis shows that you can’t win these deals going chalk with Vegas.

But going chalk won’t put you into last, either.

NGI is putting in the work to run a casino.:ROFLMAO:
Click to expand...

As a group, we beat Vegas on Week 2, that's something. Weeks 6 & 7 we almost tied (our points were like a a point and a half below Vegas). Not bad overall. And the scramble format I think we did good - basically if we were golfing as a 26-some in scramble format against Tiger Woods (Vegas), we'd win every hole.
.....ok that sounded more impressive in my head.

I also think it would be interesting to look at what teams were most likely to over or under perform expectations (e.g. UCF screwed over the most people)....but that would be too much effort.
 
NeverGiveIn said:
As a group, we beat Vegas on Week 2, that's something. Weeks 6 & 7 we almost tied (our points were like a a point and a half below Vegas). Not bad overall. And the scramble format I think we did good - basically if we were golfing as a 26-some in scramble format against Tiger Woods (Vegas), we'd win every hole.
Click to expand...
Hear that? Back in the pile!
GcDOyXN.gif
 
Hey everyone,
Today's stat is the ranking of how everyone performed with regard to % correct picks (i.e. taking the point system out of it, just pure accuracy). This is again everyone who played more than 1 or 2 weeks.

% Correct Picks
1. .......ahem.....NeverGiveIn (72%)
2. TSchekler (70%) & AeroBuff99 (70%) & Buff_since76 (70%)
3. leftybuff (69%)
4. CarolinaBuff (67%)
5. BuffUp (67%)
6. rscmac (67%)
7. Uncle Luko (66%)
8. hokiehead (66%) & Buffalo Brad (66%)
9. cmgoods (66%)
10. Highlander (65%)
11. ahoelsken (65%)
12. BuffinCali (64%)
13. buffaholic (63%)
14. onealcd (63%)
15. married2abuff (63%)
16. LSX Buff (62%)
17. CUBuff98 (61%)
18. dwyermj (60%)
19. Buffnik (58%)
20. BehindEnemyLines (56%)
21. Bass (53%)

Tomorrow's stat: % correct for those stalwart competitors who played all 13 games....spoiler: doesn't work out to be the same ranks as PPW! Oooo.....
Don't worry guys, we've only got a few stats left. Hang in there.
 
Dear best friends,

So you're thinking "NGI, you can't compare people who played like 3 weeks to people who played every week, that's not fair. I'm a whiny baby and momma's baby needs his bottle!". Very astute observation and well-articulated, at that, dear reader. Without further ado, here's the ranking of % correct picks for those who played every week:

% Correct Picks
1. TSchekler (70%)
2. leftybuff (70%)
3. cmgoods (66%)
4. Highlander(65%)
5. Buffnik (58%)

One way to interpret this data (PPW standings vs. % correct standings) is that if you ranked higher on your % correct than PPW, you'd do better if you weighted points differently, but your picks are pretty good. Vice-versa for the opposite.

Tomorrow's stat: # of weeks everyone participated
Last day's state (day after tomorrow): one "special" (bad or good, but I tried to find good) thing about your performance
 
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