the half that your gf loves so dearly?
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Buffs enter stretch run
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
the half that your gf loves so dearly?
cubuffs85
Active Member
From ESPN Insider, not sure how we fall in the rankings after winning out last three games including massacring UW. Is he holding our future schedule against us?
Reading the last sentence he may be anticpating a rough 2 weeks.
Which also means that a good 2 weeks should rocket us up.
cubuffs85
Active Member
That was my thought process, but I don't think that's fair to lower us because of our future schedule.
Hard to say, since a lot depends on what the teams around us do in the RPI. But if the Buffs go 3-4 the rest of the way, I think we could end up around 40 and very bubbly.
Hasn't there only been one team left off ever with an RPI below 45 or something like that? Dare I say lock? Zero bad losses, conference record of .500 and multiple quality wins
cubuffs85
Active Member
The SI bracket just released today had us as a #12 seed today but NOT one of the last four in. I venture to say, we're not a lock with a 3-4 finish necessarily.
wyobuff
Well-Known Member
I'm siding with nik here, while a 3-4 record over the last 7 will not be awful, there are some teams that are fighting for their life right now and could go on a tear - something we cant keep up with if we go 3-4.
In addition to that, 3-4 would probably include a win over USC, which wont do much for us. It may not include a marquee win like zona or ucla, though we do have opportunities for those.
We are probably going to need at least 4 wins down this stretch to feel ok, and 5 to feel comfortable.
In addition to that, 3-4 would probably include a win over USC, which wont do much for us. It may not include a marquee win like zona or ucla, though we do have opportunities for those.
We are probably going to need at least 4 wins down this stretch to feel ok, and 5 to feel comfortable.
With our early season win over Oregon and our early season losses to OK. State and Baylor looking worse and worse, we need to have a winning record over these final 7 to feel safe on selection sunday I think.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
We're in with 3-4. This bubble sucks ass, they aren't turning us away in that scenario.
cubuffs85
Active Member
3-4 should get us in but it's not a lock IMO. I think 4-3 would put us over the top. Anything better, we can start talking about seeding.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
They're not turning away a 21 win team with a winning Pac record and a strong OOC. They just aren't.
So there is a new analyzer. I would say it is about 70% accurate. But here is what our RPI would be based on different scenarios:
3-4 finish
RPI of 28 with Wins USC, ASU and UA
RPI of 33 with wins USC, ASU,and Cal
2-5 finish
RPI of 37 with Wins USC and ASU
RPI of 36 with wins ASU and UA
1-6 finish
RPI of 46 with wins versus ASU or USC
0-7 finish
RPI of 55
7-0 finish
RPI of 8
Thanks.
My only concern with this is I would assume that it probably doesn't account for things like OSU being in freefall.
yes it doesn't. For some reason the predictive models have not caught up with that and have OSU favored in all their remaining games except @ISU
but their remaining schedule isn't terrible:
oklahoma
@Baylor
Tech
@TCU
Kansas
Kansas ST
@Iowa State
For example Baylor, who also sucks now are only favored in 3 of their 5 remaining games. And if anyone is interested you can check it out here:
http://www.rpiforecast.com/
yea, I'm not going to be too worried if we go 3-4 the rest of the way, although if that's followed up by a first-round loss in the conference tourney we could be looking at playing on Tuesday or Wednesday in the ridiculous "first round" gimmick that now exists.
cubuffs85
Active Member
If we finish 3-5, especially if we lose the last four games (Utah, Cal schools, and first round), I'd be concerned. Say what you want about the first round "gimmick," it gives us a bigger margin for error.