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Buffs Soccer and Volleyball- weekly look at tournament hopes

Discussion in 'University of Colorado News and Olympic Sports' started by AztecBuff, Oct 7, 2014.

  1. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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    1[SUP]st[/SUP], wanted to highlight that, in the weekly NCAA Volleyball Coaches Poll released yesterday (http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/volleyball-women/d1/avca-coaches), it’s nice to see the Buff getting votes again, coming in with the 31[SUP]st[/SUP] most votes in the country. With the Buffs going into LA this weekend and playing (both ranked) USC and UCLA, a win over both would I assume give them a good chance to get into the Top 25 as early as next week.

    __________________________

    Then- having too much much time on my hands (and using as inspiration the Buff basketball fan(atic)s who start doing this for BBall pretty early in the season), thought I’d pass along this record, ranking and rating information for the Pac 12 for the soccer and volleyball teams. Then, I wrote a few notes adding hopefully relevant points as far as NCAA tournament selection for the two Buff teams.

    So 1st, here is some standing, ranking and rating info for the Pac 12:

    Soccer:

    Pac 12 Soccer_2014-10-06 corrected.jpg

    Volleyball
    Pac 12 VBall_2014-10-06.jpg

    (*In case anyone cares to know why, I included this "Pablo" rating since, in the Volleyball forum I frequent, most of the posters seem to think it's a MUCH better indicator of how good a team actually is as opposed to RPI. As I understand it, the main things it factors in its calculation/ algorithm that RPI doesn’t is (a) how close the various team’s and their opponents match scores have been, as well as (b) looking at whether wins or losses are at home or on the road. If you're a stats or very detail oriented person and have some time to waste, Pablo’s explanation of his rating can be found at http://www.richkern.com/vb/rankings/PabloFAQ.asp (warning- as a non-stats/ math/ detail person, it made my head hurt so I stopped reading quickly.) Regarding the Pablo rankings listed above, did want to thank my source, the following post in the main volleyball forum -http://volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/55571/pac-12-week-3 .)

    Notes

    Of course, as a Buff fan, I wanted to say early on my hopes are that both soccer and volleyball will win the rest of their matches, in which case soccer will end up 9-2 and near the top of the Pac 12, and volleyball will be 18-2 and end up Pac 12 champions.


    My notes are based on trying to see how the Buff teams are looking assuming they end up similar to last year (Soccer at 4-4-2, volleyball at 9-11). With both I believe being tournament “bubble” teams last year, If either or both do much better this year, they should safely get into the tournament(s) , while if either or both do very much (or maybe AT ALL) worse they won’t make it in (and obviously won’t deserve to).

    I’m probably one of the least knowledgeable people as to what goes into tournament selection, RPI, etc., so apologize in advance for anything inaccurate, and definitely will appreciate corrections.


    Notes on Soccer

    Based on what I see, it’s looking like the soccer team may need/ want to do a little better this year than last year’s 4-4-2. Thinking this because:
    1) RPI- Currently (granted with most of the conference still to play), the Buffs are 10[SUP]th[/SUP] in conference RPI. Last year, the conference received six tournament selections, so, assuming the league isn’t showing as massively improved overall, the Buffs at minimum probably will want to be in the conference top 5-6 in every way possible (Pac-12 standings, RPI, etc.). (I couldn’t easily find how the Buffs RPI last year was in relation to the rest of the conference at selection time, but at the end of the year (which obviously was probably helped by their big DU and BYU wins in the tournament) they ended up 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in conference RPI at #22 nationally.)

    2) RPI- Part 2- On the bright side, the Buffs are close to RPI #40 (again, #45 right now), which is what many say makes it “pretty” safe that a team will get into the tournament, but there have been some cases when teams around 40 have NOT been selected (although those generally seem to be in “non-power” conferences). I did find this info for 2006-2012 (couldn’t find more current) for Men’s Basketball as to lowest RPI teams who did NOT make their tournament and visa versa (from http://www.collegerpi.com/subs/rpitrivia.html ):
    The highest rated team left out: #21 Missouri St, #30 Hofstra (2006), #30 Air Force (2007)....
    among the big six (conferences): #40 Cincinnati (2006).
    The lowest rated teams to get at-large bids (ALB): #67 USC, #64 Marquette (2011), #63 NC State (2005), #63 Stanford (2007).

    3) Good Wins and Bad Losses- I believe I’ve heard in the past this is another thing selection committees like to look at. (I believe good being defined as beating highly poll and or RPI ranked teams, bad being the opposite.) Obviously, wins like the one against pretty highly ranked USC last weekend are great- KEEP THEM COMING! Unfortunately, Buffs soccer (like volleyball last year when they lost to RPI #137 Wyoming), probably already has one “bad” loss this year, to last year-end RPI #154 and this week RPI #142 Kent State. Looking forward, the only potential “bad” loss the Buffs could suffer in conference would be to RPI #203 Oregon State, while there are at least a few more opportunities for “good” wins in the tough Pac 12, so hopefully the Buffs can get some to improve them in the eyes of their selection committee.

    4) Of course, in the wacky world of RPI- I believe how the Buffs non-conference opponents do (and how THEIR opponents do) the rest of the year is somewhat important- so go DU, CSU, Kent State, etc.!

    Volleyball

    1) RPI-Re RPI, they’re already pretty high at 34, and pretty much only play other high and at WORSE middle of the road RPI teams the rest of the way in the BRUTAL Pac 12, so I think if the Buffs can get to 9 wins in the Pac 12 like last year, it would take some stange circumstances for them not to get into the tournament. The Pac 12 volleyball conference is so strong, and is even stronger relatively this year than last; it will probably get at minimum 9 teams into the tournament, as it did last year. (Last year, average conference RPI ended up at 40. To date, this year is at 26.)

    2) One thing that could (although I think it unlikely to matter) occur is that, if the Buffs overall winning % isn’t high enough, they could have a good enough “resume” to get selected, but not meet the minimum NCAA winning record requirement. I believe there is a requirement, but don’t know exactly what it is. Does anyone else know- is the rule that you need a WINNING record? Or, do you only need to be AT .500 OR better? (The reason I wonder about this is the Buffs could have 8 conference wins, be in the top 7-8 or so in conference, still be around 40 in RPI, but that 8 conference wins would only give them a 16-16 overall record.)

    3) Big Wins and Bad Losses- The win against AZ gave the Buffs I assume their 1[SUP]st[/SUP] big win- KEEP IT UP! As to bad losses, it looks like the Buffs won’t have any this year, as no loss in the Pac 12, at least in the RPI sense, looks like it would be a “bad” loss to a committee. And, thankfully, it looks to me like all the teams the Buffs lost to in non-conference are doing well, so I don’t think any of those non-conference losses this year will end up being considered “bad “ ones, at least to the committee:
    a. Illinois is still ranked (Ranked 15[SUP]th[/SUP] in the country, #11 RPI),
    b. Northwestern (entered the Top 25 at #24 this week, #22 RPI),
    c. Creighton (Receiving votes nationally (so unofficially #28 ranked), #41 RPI),
    d. South Dakota (#56 RPI- A little nervous about this one since I assume their conference is relatively weak, so their RPI will go down some as their opponents won’t have high RPI’s. However, they do seem to be doing well (5-0 in conference so far), so I can’t imagine them falling below RPI #100, which seems to be a dividing line as to when a loss might be considered “bad” to a selection committee.)

    General Notes

    1) I did find out that this is the formula for RPI (from Wikipedia), but my mind spins when trying to figure out what it means in the real world as to what causes it to go up and go down. (On the face of it, it looks like it’s more important how your opponents and THEIR opponents do than actually winning games/ matches yourself, which seems macabre to me.):
    “In its current formulation, the index comprises a team's winning percentage (25%), its opponents' winning percentage (50%), and the winning percentage of those opponents' opponents (25%). The opponents' winning percentage and the winning percentage of those opponents' opponents both comprise the strength of schedule (SOS). Thus, the SOS accounts for 75% of the RPI calculation and is 2/3 its opponents' winning percentage and 1/3 its opponents' opponents' winning percentage.”

    2) Had never looked it up before, but found a couple things direct from the selection committee rules. (Note- These were from Basketball’s committee last year (http://www.ncaa.com/content/di-principles-and-procedures-selection ), but since they are so general assume they are similar or identical for other sports.)
    A) The overall goal of the committees are (assume predictably) very basic “The committee selects the 36 best teams not otherwise automatic qualifiers for their conference to fill the at-large berths. There is no limit on the number of at-large teams the committee may select from one conference;” (Note/ question- not sure if soccer and volleyball have the exact same # of at large teams or not?)
    B) What the committees have as resources- “Among the resources available to the committee are complete box scores, game summaries and notes, pertinent information submitted on a team’s behalf by its conference, various computer rankings, injury reports, head-to-head results, chronological results, Division I results, non-conference results, home, away and neutral results, rankings, polls and the NABC regional advisory committee rankings.”
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: Oct 20, 2014
    sackman, 90sBuff, aik and 4 others like this.
  2. cmgoods

    cmgoods Olympic Sports Mod Club Member

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    Great read and some good information here! In answer to your question, I believe that you have to be at .500 or above to get in, but someone may know better than me. Either way, if we finish with a .500 record, we shouldn't expect to get in.
     
  3. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    That's a high-level post right there, folks!

    All hail, Aztec!
     
  4. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Good to hear you think it "only" takes a .500 record.

    Yeah- I was thinking about your point they wouldn't/ shouldn't get in at .500 as I was writing this, and it got me to thinking how I'll be thinking as a fan-
    1) As you're saying, right now, with most of the season remaining, I expect them to earn an "easy" berth *(even being 10-10 in conference would accomplish that), especially after how well they played both matches this weekend. (Hopefully they keep on performing on the road like they did in last year's tournament, and even in Oregon a couple weeks ago. Prior years' road Pac 12 performance generally hasn't been impressive, but they're looking quite a bit better right now.)

    2) BUT THEN, looking at another way, I try to look ahead to actual tournament selection time. If the Buffs, even if 16-16 overall/ 8-12 in the Pac 12, are still around 40 in RPI and other rankings (including like this respected Pablo ranking I listed) indicate we're still one of the top 3X at large teams in the country, I'd still be a little pissed if they don't get in merely based on the fact we play in a ridiculously tough conference.
    (I think we always need to keep in mind how tough Pac 12 volleyball is when evaluating the program (compared to EVERY other CU team sport, although occasionally soccer and football have come somewhat close). I looked at the remainder of the schedule, and all it would take for the Buffs to "fall to" 8-12 is to lose to every ranked team, even if they won every other match against the un-ranked teams. In other words, they have to beat probably 4-5 nationally ranked teams each year to be "mediocre" in conference.*** To use a Men's basketball analogy, they're pretty much playing Arizona at least once every weekend. Scary stuff- but of course also fun to get to see the team compete against the best in the country pretty much every weekend at the Keg or on the Pac 12 network! )

    ***Actually, got me to wondering- when is the last time any CU team sport has beaten that many (4-5) ranked teams in a year? Assume it might have been (talking about getting pissed at selection time) the year Men's Bball beat f******* K State, who I believe received a 6 seed tournament time, 3 TIMES and didn't get selected?
     
    Last edited: Oct 7, 2014
  5. buffgal

    buffgal Club Member Club Member

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    I would like to think we can pull off two upsets in Southern California this weekend, but I realistically can't see more than one. I'm guessing UCLA wants payback for that loss in Boulder last year. I'll be cheering for two wins.

    Love your analysis.
     
  6. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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    I guess even if we just beat USC, that would be pretty good. They are one of 3 Pac 12 teams, along with Oregon and Stanford, I don't think we've beaten since joining the Pac 12. This is a year, however, USC is more vulnerable than any time we've played them before (they typically are always in the top 10). This is probably a combination of their losing the best defender in the country to graduation, and a couple injuries, including to last year's freshman of the year (she's still playing, but working her way back from evidently a BAD back injury, and her play is way down from last year). So far, although still ranked #20, they're only 1-3 in the Pac 12 and 8-6 overall this season. One thing the Buffs will need to do is be good on serve receive, especially against Samantha Bricio, one of the two or three best servers in the country, who can easily earn 5-6 points in a row, which or course makes a set win by the opposition VERY difficult.

    And, who knows, we may benefit from playing UCLA 2nd. Don't know how much you follow volleyball, but they have maybe the best hitter in America (Karsta Lowe), but because they don't have much depth, she's getting a huge amount of swings/ work. Last week, they made the swing north to play the Washington schools, and against (#3 ranked) Washington, UCLA won the 1st two sets, but evidently (didn't see the match myself) Ms. Lowe got fatigued and UCLA lost in 5 sets. Then, even against (0-4) Washington State a couple days later, she still didn't have a great match (at least by her standards). The Bruins did in that game have one of their freshmen have a career match, and they held on for a 4 set win. Of course, it will still be a great challenge to even slow down Ms. Lowe and the rest of the Bruins, as they are after all the #17 team in the nation.
     
  7. torerobuff

    torerobuff Dancing is forbidden Club Member

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  8. 90sBuff

    90sBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Awesome post and some great info in this!

    I really enioy watching our our volleyball team. I'm hoping the team shocks either USC or UCLA this weekend. Would be great. I think they have some confidence after dominating Arizona (score was close but we knocked them off 3-0).

    Its fun fun to think about them being pac 12 champs. I hope we can say that in the future, if it doesn't happen this year.

    Good ode luck to the team the rest of the way!


     
  9. buffgal

    buffgal Club Member Club Member

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    I mostly watch CU volleyball or whatever happens to be on tv. I get the Big 10 network and have watched some good games on that channel. The West Coast matches are on too late for me--except when CU plays.

    Thanks for the information.
     
  10. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Soccer and Volleyball- Update for week ended October 12th

    Just thought I’d update the various rankings and ratings for Buff’s soccer and volleyball for this week, as new one’s come out each Monday and (in the case of soccer Top 25 rankings) Tuesday:

    Soccer

    1) STANDINGS- With its two wins this past weekend, the Buffs moved up to a tie for 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in the Pac 12 at 3-2, tied with Washington State and Arizona, and behind only national powers UCLA and Stanford.

    2) RPI- as always seems somewhat strange to me, the Buffs actually went down from #45 to #46 in spite of its two wins, I assume due to the two Oregon schools having the two lowest RPI’s in the conference (esp. OSU by far), so hurting the Buffs strength of schedule. I’m assuming the Buffs won’t have this RPI issue come up any more, with all the games remaining being against teams with higher RPI’s. (Although RPI continues to look at how past opponents are doing/ have done, there could be a negative RPI effect depending on how the prior opponents do the rest of the year).Relatively, the Buffs did move up a little from 10[SUP]th[/SUP] best RPI in the Pac 12 to 9[SUP]th[/SUP], as USC fell a couple spots below them.

    3) Rankings- The Buffs aren’t showing as officially ranked or receiving votes in the NSCAA (Coach’s) top 25 poll. Overall, the Pac 12 has 4 teams in the Top 25 (#’s 1, 4, 20 and 23), and 2 others receiving votes (#’s 27 and 28).


    Volleyball

    4) STANDINGS- After its split against the two ranked LA schools this past weekend, the Buffs are in a 5 way tie for 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in the Pac 12 at 3-3. If this parity keeps up (and it seems the talent is pretty even), I could definitely see a lot of if not all placings between 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] and 9[SUP]th[/SUP] in conference (the exceptions probably being Stanford and Washington at the top and Cal and Washington State at the bottom) definitely be up for grabs until LATE in the conference year.

    5) RPI and Pablo ratings- In RPI, the Buffs fell a little to #39 from 34, even though pretty convincingly beating UCLA, who is at #18. (In reality, just assume the change is based on how prior Buffs opponents did, and how those opponents’ opponents did last week.) In the more respected “Pablo” rankings, the Buffs went from #30 to 31, I assume down a little (although only one spot) due to the same reason(s) as the RPI. In the big picture, I assume if they win their share, which they need to do in any case, the Buffs shouldn’t have any RPI issues.

    6) Rankings- The Buffs moved up a little bit in the AVCA Coaches poll, and are now receiving the 28[SUP]th[/SUP] most votes in the country (up from 31[SUP]st[/SUP] last week). The Pac 12 overall continues to look tough, placing 7 teams in the Top 19, led by Stanford at #1 and Washington at #3. In addition, Oregon State joins the Buffs in receiving votes, getting the 32[SUP]nd[/SUP] most in the country. (Have to give OSU props- a BIG improvement for them. Last year, they went 0-20 in Pac 12 play, but are 3-3 in conference so far this year, and also had some nice if not elite 2014 non-conference wins.)
     
  11. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Soccer and Volleyball-standings, ratings and rankings update for week ended Oct. 19th

    Just thought I’d update the various rankings and ratings for Buff’s soccer and volleyball for this week, as new one’s come out each Monday and (in the case of soccer rankings) Tuesday.
    Note- since everything but Soccer Top 25 rankings come out Monday, thought I’d go ahead and post this today, and will edit it when the soccer ratings do come out.:

    Soccer

    1) Standings- With a loss in its lone game this past week against RPI #2 and (last week) #4 ranked Stanford, the Buffs moved down a little to a 3 way tie for 6th in the Pac 12 at 3-3 (9 points), tied with ASU and Arizona. They are 1 point behind Washington State and 3 behind Washington (after their Monday night game win), with national powers UCLA (16 points) and Stanford (13 points) leading the way. Of course, with the Buffs having 5 games left, ALL AT HOME, the opportunity is definitely there to move up the standings.

    2) RPI- I was curious to see what would happen with a loss to a VERY high RPI team, but unlike what I was hoping might happen, the Buffs still did go down some in RPI this week, #46 last week to #50 this week (assume based on how some of their prior opponents did). Looking at just Pac 12 teams, the Buffs remained the 9th of 12 teams in RPI.

    3) Rankings- I will update this section tomorrow when the new soccer ratings come out. (Last week, the Buffs weren’t showing as officially ranked or receiving votes in the NSCAA (Coach’s) top 25 poll. Overall, the Pac 12 had 4 teams in the Top 25 (#’s 1, 4, 20 and 23), and 2 others receiving votes (#’s 27 and 28).)

    Volleyball

    4) Standings- After its split against the Bay Area schools this past weekend, the Buffs are tied with USC and ASU for 6[SUP]th[/SUP] place in the Pac 12 at 4-4. Three schools are right above the Buffs at 5-3, and two just below at 3-5, so 8 of the Pac 12 teams are within 2 games of each other. Still looks like the important middle spots in the conference for rankings and potential NCAA berths will probably not be decided until the last week or two of conference.

    5) RPI and Pablo ratings- In RPI, the Buffs improved a little to #32 from 34. (In reality, just assume the change is based on how prior Buffs opponents did, and how those opponents’ opponents did last week, as well as I assume getting “credit” for playing #1 RPI Stanford.) In RPI, the Buffs are 7th out of the Pac 12 teams, although OSU and ASU are VERY close behind them.
    In the more respected “Pablo” rankings, the Buffs went up quite a bit from #31 to 22, I assume because Pablo does look at individual game and not just match results, and the fact we did so well against #1 Stanford must have helped some.
    Identical to what I said last week- In the big picture, I assume if they win their share, which they need to do in any case, the Buffs shouldn’t have any RPI issues. In the Pablo rankings, the Buffs are 8[SUP]th[/SUP] in the conference.
    Also, take it for what it’s worth, but there’s a poster on the main Volleyball blog (Username Bluepenguin (BP), thanks to him/ her) who estimates what record all D1 teams will end up with (I believe using the Pablo rankings and adjusting for home vs. road) and, if that estimated outcome does occur, what all the teams’ RPI’s will end up at. This week, BP estimates the Buffs finishing up 10-10 in conference if they perform to expectations and, if that occurs, he estimates they’ll end up #36 in RPI, which would be very safe to get into the tournament. And, even in the analysis BP did last week, when the Buffs were estimated to end up 9-11 in conference, he estimated their RPI would be #41. That rating would, based on history of major conferences in various sports, should except in VERY rare circumstances be safe for the Buffs to make the tournament. (Of course, BP’s project is way beyond my statistical and volleyball knowledge, so I can't evaluate its accuracy.)

    6) Rankings- The Buffs moved up a little bit in the AVCA Coaches poll, and are now the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] team “receiving votes”, so unofficially are the 26[SUP]th[/SUP] ranked team in the country (vs. 28[SUP]st[/SUP] last week). The Pac 12 overall continues to look tough, with 7 teams in the Top 19, led by Stanford at #1 and Washington at #3, and the other 5 ranked pretty closely grouped from 11[SUP]th[/SUP] to 19[SUP]th[/SUP] in the country.
     
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2014
  12. MarkW

    MarkW Well-Known Member

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    Soccer looks to be in good shape due to their schedule with five consecutive matches at home to wrap up the regular season. All five matches are winnable, but that doesn't mean we can put them in the win column. Should CU take advantage of the home matches and win say, four of them, they'll be in good shape for making the NCAA tourney. They would finish the regular season with a winning conference record which would put them in the top 35 in the RPI.
     
  13. Uncle Ken

    Uncle Ken Orr no morr Club Member

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    Anybody else get the feeling that we're overdue to beat USC when they visit in November? We've got to do something about that team!
     
  14. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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    That would be great. Hopefully the altitude factor I hear announcers talk about, especially on the serve, will slow down their servers, especially Ms. Bricio (who was the main (but not of course only) reason for the loss in LA), so that she either/ or makes more errors or has to slow down her serve some to get it in. Looks like they were a team we only played once last year, and it was at USC, so they hopefully won't have a full feel of altitude's effect on the volleyball (although they are playing in Utah 1st this year).

    It was nice to get that 1st conference win ever against Cal Sunday. So now, in addition to USC (0-9 all-time), only Stanford (one more chance against them on the road this year- 0-13 lifetime record) and Oregon (already played them the only time they're on the schedule this year- Buff's 2-9 lifetime, 0-6 in conference) remain as teams we haven't beaten in conference.
     
  15. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Soccer and Volleyball-standings, ratings and rankings update for week ended Oct. 26th

    Here’s my (admittedly WAY too exhaustive) weekly update with the various rankings and ratings for Buff’s soccer and volleyball, and how the teams look as far as possibly receiving bids into their NCAA tournaments.

    Soccer

    1) Standings- With a 0-1-1 weekend at home against the tough Washington schools this past weekend, the Buffs moved down a little to a 2 way tie for 7th with their next opponent, Arizona, in the Pac 12 at 3-4-1 (10 points). The top 4 teams in conference are now quite a bit ahead, with the 2 Washington schools tied for 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] 6 points ahead of the Buffs. So, unless the Buffs run the table in their last 3 matches, and get outside help, looks like the best they can shoot for is a 5[SUP]th[/SUP] place Pac 12 finish. They are only 2 points behind the current 5[SUP]th[/SUP] place team (USC), so that is definitely an attainable goal.

    2) RPI- The Buffs went down one spot in RPI this week, from #50 to #51. Looking at just Pac 12 teams, the Buffs remained the 9th of 12 teams in RPI, with Utah the closest above them at #44, while USC is the next below at #61.

    Overall, the Pac 12 average RPI this week is 45.5 (helped by #1 and 2 UCLA and Stanford, while being hurt by #215 OSU). The Pac has the best conference average RPI in the country (ahead of the 9 team Big 12 (ave. of 48) and 14 team SEC (ave. of 56)). Although it is the highest in RPI, I don’t know if it’s dominant, like Pac 12 volleyball is, to realistically anticipate receiving something like 9 tournament berths. (As reference, last year the Pac 12 averaged a 59 RPI, and received 6 tournament bids.)

    3) Projected Bracketology

    Also, take it for what it’s worth, but I found a webpage (http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/10030 ) dated 10/27, that has the Buffs as one of the four “last teams in(to)” the tournament. So, hopefully if the Buffs get at least a couple more wins in their last three home matches, they will have at least a decent chance to get selected. (I am a little nervous that the linked webpage has 10 Pac-12 teams getting in, which would be a big increase from the 6 that got in last year.)

    4) Rankings- The Buffs aren’t showing as officially ranked or receiving votes in the NSCAA (Coach’s) top 25 poll. Overall, the Pac 12 has 4 teams in the Top 25 (#’s 1, 4, 17 and 22), and 2 others receiving votes (#’s 26 and 27).) Of the Buffs last 3 opponents, only Arizona State (receiving the 27[SUP]th[/SUP] most votes) is in the poll. In one way, that should mean they have a good a chance to get multiple wins, and all teams left to play are ahead of them in RPI and are RPI Top 50, so wins should help that rating. On the other hand, they don’t have a chance left to get any individual “resume building” great wins against highly ranked teams.

    Volleyball

    4) Standings- After its split against the Washington schools this past weekend; the Buffs are still tied (with USC and ASU) for 6th place in the Pac 12 at 5-5. Three schools are right above the Buffs at 6-4, and one just below at 4-6, so 7 of the Pac 12 teams are within 2 games of each other. Still looks like the important middle spots in the conference for rankings and potential NCAA berths will probably not be decided until the last week or two of conference.

    5) RPI and Pablo ratings- In RPI, the Buffs went down one spot from #32 to 33. Within the Pac 12, ASU is now above the Buffs, so the Buffs are (a close) 8[SUP]th[/SUP] out of the Pac 12 teams, with ASU just a couple spots above and OSU a couple spots below in the national ratings. (Overall, the Pac 12 teams are averaging a VERY strong 31 RPI.)

    In the more respected “Pablo” ratings (see my original post for more info), the Buffs continue to rise, and are now up to national rated #20 (from #22 last week). Among Pac 12 teams, the Buffs remain the 8[SUP]th[/SUP] highest in Pablo ratings.

    Identical to what I’ve said previously- In the big picture, I assume if they win their share, which they need to do in any case, the Buffs shouldn’t have any RPI issues.

    5) Projected RPI Estimates

    Also, take them for what it’s worth, but there are a couple posters on the main Volleyball blog (Usernames Bluepenguin (BP) and Rick Kern, thanks to them) who estimate what record all D1 teams will end up with (I believe using the Pablo rankings and adjusting for home vs. road) and, if that estimated outcome does occur, what all the teams’ RPI’s will end up at. This week:

    BP estimates the Buffs finishing up 10-10 in conference if they perform to expectations and, if that occurs, he/ she estimates they’ll end up ~#35 in RPI. (http://volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/55885/rpi-futures-10-26)

    Rich Kern also estimates the Buffs end up at 10-10 (would = 18-14 overall), and estimates that would put them at ~#38 in RPI. (http://volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/55896/projected-rkpi-10-27-2014?page=1 )

    Either RPI #35 or #38 would easily place them into the tournament, and I think they MIGHT have a one game cushion where their RPI will probably still be good enough, even if they end up 9-11 in conference, to be selected.

    6) Rankings- Unchanged from last week, The Buffs are still the 1st team “receiving votes”, so unofficially are the 26th ranked team in the country. (One team, Minnesota, actually dropped out of the Top 25. However, the Buffs were leap frogged by the Sooners, who beat the previously undefeated Long Horns, so were moved up to #25.) The Pac 12 overall continues to look tough, with 7 teams in the Top 20, led by Stanford at #1 and Washington at #2, and the other 5 ranked pretty closely grouped from 12th to 20th in the country. Oregon State is also receiving votes, and is informally #29 in the country.

    Note- The Buffs next 4 opponents over the next two weekends are all ranked (in order of the match date)- Arizona (#15), Arizona State (#19), UCLA (#16) and USC (#20). These are the last 4 matchups for the year against the 10-20 range nationally ranked Pac teams, so this may be the most crucial two weekends of the year. With hopefully at least a win or two (believe per the estimating tools the Buffs are probably predicted to go 1-3 over these next 4 games)- the Buffs would earn what would be considered high quality win(s), as well as gaining some cushion for their record. If they lose all 4, that would put them at .500 overall, so leave little cushion the rest of the year, and would require them to DEFINITELY win the 4 remaining matches they have against unranked teams (Cal, WSU, OSU and Utah). Although they will be favorites in all those matches, all the teams (esp. OSU- thankfully a home match) are still dangerous, and two are road games. The other 2 matches left I haven’t mentioned above are against two undefeated and top ranked teams- a home match against #2 Washington and road match against #1 Stanford; of course a win in either of those matches would pretty much insure a tournament bid if they get to 9 conference wins, and then maybe 8 would even do it.
     
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2014
  16. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Analysis for week ending 11/2

    Well after a great combined 4-0 weekend for soccer and volleyball against the Arizona schools, here’s my (as always too exhaustive) weekly update with the various rankings and ratings for Buff’s soccer and volleyball, and how the team looks as far as possibly receiving bids into their NCAA tournaments.

    Note- I think unless the volleyball team was to go into a tailspin (going 3-5 would probably still be good enough to easily be selected); they are now likely into the tournament. So, I’m just listing their ratings and rankings below without as much comment this week. As I mentioned in another thread, if they can accomplish a great weekend sweep against the LA schools this weekend (which will be VERY TOUGH to do), the discussion can switch over to what the prospects are for the Buffs to actually get one of top 16 seeds, which would be great since they’d get to host the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] two rounds of the tournament (and us fans could root them on live!), as well as being assured of avoiding any of the other top 16 teams until the round of 16.

    Soccer

    1) Standings- With a wonderful 2-0-0 (6 point) weekend at home against the Arizona schools this past weekend, the Buffs moved up to 5-4-1 (16 points) in conference, good for a 3 way tie for 5[SUP]th[/SUP] place. (Last weekend they were in a 2 way tie for 7[SUP]th[/SUP].) I’d say if they get a win against Utah they would have a decent chance to end up at least tied for 3[SUP]rd[/SUP], since the current 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] (USC) and 4[SUP]th[/SUP] (Cal) place teams are only 2 and 1 points ahead of the Buffs, and they are both playing their last game’s against their local rivals, UCLA and Stanford, respectively, two of the top 3 teams in the country. If the Buffs lose to Utah, looks like they could conceivably end up as low as a tie for 7[SUP]th[/SUP] with Arizona. Therefore, this Utah match is obviously VERY important with how they end up in conference, which could then influence a selection committee as to how the Buffs are viewed.

    2) RPI- As I also saw mentioned in another thread, the Buffs went quite a bit up in RPI to #39 this week, (from #51 last week). Looking at just Pac 12 teams, the Buffs are now the 8th of 12 teams in RPI, but are surrounded by other Pac teams, with USC one spot above them at #38, and Arizona State one below at #40. Final opponent Utah had a tough weekend, so fell from #44 to #62 last week, so don’t know what a loss to them might do to the Buff’s RPI.

    Overall, the Pac 12 average RPI this week is 44.9 (helped by #1 and 2 UCLA and Stanford, while being hurt by #210 OSU). The Pac is essentially tied with the Big 12 (45.1 average) for the best conference average RPI in the country, with the SEC 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] at an average of 57. I had been thinking it unlikely that the Pac 12 would receive something like 9 tournament berths, since they only received 6 last year, but since the bracketology experts (see below) have it happening this late in the year, assume it’s now likely, which is obviously great news for the Buffs. (My doubts had come from the fact that last year the Pac 12 averaged a 59 RPI, and received 6 tournament bids.)

    Note- I hadn’t looked in a while at Kent State, the worse (RPI) loss the Buffs have suffered this year, and they are still down in RPI (#167). So, assume that loss will be a negative on the Buff’s “resume” to the tournament selection committee, although hopefully with everything else the Buffs have accomplished (high RPI, winning record in TOUGH conference, etc.) that loss won’t be fatal to their chances.

    3) Projected Bracketology

    The webpage I found last week doing bracketology estimates/ guesstimates has updated their analysis as of 11/2 (http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/10072), and the Buffs are no longer in the “Last ones in” list, and are still of course listed in the field, so that’s good news.

    I also found ANOTHER website, the respected topdrawersoccer.com, does an analysis, the current one of which can be found at http://www.topdrawersoccer.com/coll...s-di-tourney-field-projection:-nov-4_aid35254 . Assuming the teams are in order in their list, they still have the Buffs as being the ~#59[SUP]th[/SUP] team getting in, which indicates a win against Utah this Friday is still needed for the Buffs to have a comfortable selection night viewing party.

    4) Rankings- The Buffs still aren’t showing as officially ranked or receiving votes in the NSCAA (Coach’s) top 25 poll. Overall, the Pac 12 still has 4 teams in the Top 25 (#’s 1, 3, 22 and 24), and 3 others receiving votes (#’s 26, 28 and 30).)

    Volleyball

    4) Standings- Buffs at 7-5, in a 4 way tie for 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] with Oregon, Arizona and UCLA. Still 3 other teams within 2 games, so each weekend can move the Buffs way up or way down based on how they do. The top 2 teams Stanford and Washington are still undefeated both in conference and overall play, so aren’t reachable this year.

    5) RPI and Pablo ratings- In RPI, the Buffs went up quite a bit after their historic weekend, and are now #24 (from #33 last week). Within the Pac 12, the Buffs moved back ahead of ASU (now #32), so the Buffs are RPI 7[SUP]th[/SUP] out of the Pac 12 teams. Arizona is the next Pac team above the Buffs at #18. (Overall, the Pac 12 teams are averaging a VERY strong 33 RPI (although down a little from 31 last week).)

    In the more respected “Pablo” ratings (see my original post for more info), the Buffs continue to rise, and are now up to national rated #18 (from #20 last week). Among Pac 12 teams, the Buffs passed ASU, so are the 7[SUP]th[/SUP] highest Pac team in Pablo ratings.

    5) Projected RPI Estimates

    Also, take them for what it’s worth, but there are a couple posters on the main Volleyball blog (Usernames Bluepenguin (BP) and Rick Kern, thanks to them) who estimate what record all D1 teams will end up with (I believe using the Pablo rankings and adjusting for home vs. road) and, if that estimated outcome does occur, what all the teams’ RPI’s will end up at. This week:

    BP now estimates the Buffs finishing up 11-9 in conference (so 4-4 the rest of the way) if they perform to expectations and, if that occurs, he/ she estimates they’ll end up ~#28 in RPI. (http://volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/56010/rpi-futures-11-2?page=1)

    Rich Kern’s projections estimate the Buffs end up at 12-8 in conference (5-3 the rest of the way), and estimates that would put them at ~#19 in RPI. (http://volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/56017/projected-rkpi-11-3-2014?page=1)

    6) Rankings- As noted in other threads, the Buffs are now ranked #21 in the country!

    That still places them 8[SUP]th[/SUP] among Pac ranked teams, but with them playing #19 USC this weekend, and ASU, who they just beat on the road, right above the Buffs at #20, I’d assume they could overtake them with a good weekend. And, who knows, a win against #15 UCLA, which would constitute a season sweep, might put the Buffs above them.

    Oregon State is still the 9[SUP]th[/SUP] Pac 12 team receiving votes, and is informally #30 in the country.
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2014
  17. MarkW

    MarkW Well-Known Member

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    NO doubt that the soccer Buffs need a win Friday afternoon v Utah to be sure of an NCAA berth. And of course this would also guarantee their best ever Pac 12 conference finish.
     
  18. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Aztec, this is such high level stuff that you post in this thread. Thank you.
     
  19. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Soccer and Volleyball-standings, ratings and rankings update for week ended Nov. 16th

    Here’s my (as usual WAY too exhaustive) look at the soccer and volleyball teams standings, ratings, and rankings, and what they mean (or meant for soccer) as to NCAA tournament hopes.

    Obviously, the big news last week was that the soccer team made the tournament, and then were able to follow that up this weekend with a great tournament win in challenging conditions against BYU!

    And, women’s volleyball had probably already (pending total collapse) insured their tournament bid when sweeping the Arizona schools a couple weeks ago, and after a tough weekend against a couple tough ranked LA schools, the Buffs probably DID guarantee a tournament bid with a sweep over the Washington schools, including undefeated Washington. (I believe that gives them an awesome 6 wins against (current) Top 25 teams this year, with 4 of those wins also being against projected Top 25 RPI teams!)

    Given the above:

    1) For soccer, below I’m just going to list how the Buffs ended up in the Pac 12 standings, rankings, and ratings- mostly for posterity sake (and for comparison purposes in case I or someone else does similar in future years).

    2) For volleyball, the Buffs are probably somewhere in between being one of the 16 teams that get the important tournament seed (and so host the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] two rounds), and not being in the tournament at all. As I wrote above, they will probably make the tournament even if they lost their 4 remaining matches (although I’m sure they have MUCH higher aspirations than that). I think getting a seed is also highly unlikely, although I guess they would have a compelling argument if they won the rest of their matches, since that would mean they’d likely have ended the undefeated seasons of two great teams if they can beat #1 Stanford on the road this weekend (after already beating #2 Washington at home).
    Note- The Buffs, even if not seeded, may at least not have to fly to their 1[SUP]st[/SUP] round matches, as CSU is currently ranked #9 in the Coaches’ poll, and are projected to end up with an RPI of around 11-13 at the end of the year (assuming they avoid any late season bad losses as happened to them last year). Since the NCAA likes to minimize travel costs, it’s thought in the volleytalk blog the Buffs will probably be going to Ft. Collins for the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] two rounds.

    Soccer

    Not directly related to this post’s main purpose, but did want to forward a preview I found of the North Carolina soccer match (from http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/10272 )-
    “The Tarheels and Buffaloes both came away with 2-0 wins in their opening round matches and Colorado will now travel to Chapel Hill in hopes of beating a team they’re 0-3 against. Colorado junior goalie Kate Scheele has been in net for all 21 games this season, and she recorded her 11th shutout against BYU, putting her one shy of the school record (12) set back in 2004. This is an intriguing match-up, as these two teams come from strong conferences and have faced many quality (ranked) opponents throughout the season. There’s a reason North Carolina chose to have a tough out-of-conference schedule, though, and that was to prepare the team for games like this. While Colorado certainly has a chance, North Carolina has never exited the NCAA Tournament prior to the third round, so the Tarheels have even more incentive to win.“

    1) Standings- At the end of the year, the Buffs ended up in sole position of 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] place of the Pac 12, with a 6-4-1 record, or 19 points. (The 1[SUP]st[/SUP] 2 places were far ahead, with Stanford coming in 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] at 28 points. The Buffs were one point ahead of USC and 2 points ahead of Cal and the two Washington schools.)

    Including non-conference, the Buffs ended up 13-6-1, scoring 31 goals while giving up 16. In the 13 wins, they outscored the opposition 27-3, while being outscored 4-16 in the 6 losses. (The one tie, against Washington, was a 0-0 score.)

    2) RPI- The Buffs ended up #36 in the last RPI rating before the tournament (dated 11/10), improved from their #39 rating the week before (before their season ending win against Utah). Within the Pac 12, the Buffs ended up 8th of 12 teams in RPI, with ASU the closest team above the Buffs at #33, and USC the closest below them at #39.

    Overall, the Pac 12 average RPI ended up the regular season at 47.33, just a small margin below the 9 team Big 12 (at 47.1 average) for lowest/ best RPI average for a conference. The Pac 12 was hurt by having a lower RPI team (#222 OSU) than the Big 12’s lowest (#141 Iowa State).

    Note- As anticipated, the Buffs worst loss of the year was a neutral site one in Las Vegas against Kent State, who ended the regular season at RPI #169. (It was by FAR their worse RPI loss- next worse was to RPI #27 Kansas.) The best RPI win was against #30 Arizona, followed closely by wins against #33 ASU and #39 USC.

    For what it’s worth, I also looked quick at the Buffs regular season results- their opponents had an overall average RPI of 112.5, their opponents in Buff wins had an average RPI of 153, in losses 40.5, and their one tie was against RPI #15 (Washington).

    3) Projected Bracketology

    The webpage I found a few weeks ago doing bracketology estimates/ guesstimates had updated their analysis as of 11/9 (http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/10190), and the Buffs did show as one of (or if in order) THE last team’s selected for the tournament. So, it definitely didn’t hurt that they won their last 3 matches.

    I couldn’t find where topdrawersoccer.com updated their estimates of who would make the tournament. (In their November 4 guesstimate at http://www.topdrawersoccer.com/coll...s-di-tourney-field-projection:-nov-4_aid35254 . Assuming the teams are in order in their list, they had the Buffs as being the ~#59[SUP]th[/SUP] team getting in.) They did guess the results of the tournament once the field was announced, and they had the Buffs losing to BYU in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] round (http://www.topdrawersoccer.com/coll...014-di-womens-tournament-predictions_aid35381 ).

    4) Rankings- In the last poll before the tournament (dated 11/11), The Buffs still weren’t showing as officially ranked or receiving votes in the NSCAA (Coach’s) top 25 poll. Overall, the Pac 12 ended up with 5 teams in the Top 25 (#’s 1, 3, 20, 23 and 24), and 2 others receiving votes (#’s 32 and 35).) BYU, who the Buffs beat of course in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] round of the tournament, were ranked #15 in that poll.

    Volleyball

    4) Standings- Buffs at 9-7, in a 3 way tie for 4th with Oregon and UCLA. Still 4 other teams within 2 games, so each weekend can move the Buffs way up or way down based on how they do. The 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] place team is 5 matches ahead of the Buffs with 4 matches to go, so isn’t reachable this year.

    5) RPI and Pablo ratings- In RPI, the Buffs are unchanged from a couple weeks ago at #24, with I assume the big win against Washington offsetting the 2 losses the week before against the ranked LA schools. Within the Pac 12, the Buffs are 7[SUP]th[/SUP] in RPI out of the Pac 12 teams. USC is the next Pac team above the Buffs at #20, with Oregon State next below the Buffs at #35. (Overall, the Pac 12 teams are averaging a VERY strong 34 RPI, with the 9 team Big 12 closest with a 47 average.)

    In the more respected “Pablo” ratings (see my original post for more info), the Buffs are nationally rated #20 (unchanged from last week, down from #18 two weeks ago). Among Pac 12 teams, the Buffs are the 6[SUP]th[/SUP] highest Pac team in Pablo ratings, vs. 7[SUP]th[/SUP] a couple weeks ago.
    Note- as I mentioned near the top of this post, the Buffs have 4 wins already against teams projected to end up as RPI Top 25 teams, and conference committee evidently highly values this factor. I looked quick at a volleytalk blog that looked at that Top 25 win stat for all teams, and going from the 11[SUP]th[/SUP] rated RPI team down, only Iowa State (RPI rated #17) is projected to have that many wins against RPI top 25 teams, so CU will definitely have that wonderful “resume” item going for them.

    5) Projected RPI Estimates

    Also, take them for what it’s worth, but there are a couple posters on the main Volleyball blog (Usernames Bluepenguin (BP) and Rick Kern, thanks to them) who estimate what record all D1 teams will end up with (I believe using the Pablo rankings and adjusting for home vs. road) and, if that estimated outcome does occur, what all the teams’ RPI’s will end up at. This week:

    BP still estimates the Buffs finishing up 11-9 in conference (so 2-2 the rest of the way) if they perform to expectations and, if that occurs, he/ she estimates they’ll end up ~#33 in RPI. (http://volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/56309/rpi-futures-11-16?page=1)

    Rich Kern’s projections also estimate the Buffs end up at 11-9 in conference, but has them quite a bit higher if that occurs at an estimated #25 in RPI. (http://volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/56317/projected-rkpi-11-17-2014)

    6) Rankings- The win against undefeated Washington obviously impressed the coaches, as the Buffs are now ranked #19 in the country in the Coaches’ Poll, up from 21[SUP]st[/SUP] two weeks ago and 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] last week!

    That moves them up to 6[SUP]th[/SUP] among Pac ranked teams (from 8[SUP]th[/SUP]), as they’ve passed ASU and USC. Overall, the Pac 12 team now has an insane 9 teams in the Top 25, with Utah now ranked #23 in the country, even while being 6-10 in the Pac 12. A 10[SUP]th[/SUP] team, Oregon State, is still receiving votes, and is informally #27 in the country.

    With Utah’s great last 2 weeks, the volleytalk blog is guessing 10 Pac 12 teams will make the 64 team tournament field, with only Cal and Washington State not making it; what a fun and tough conference. The one of the 10 teams considered least likely to make it is actually USC. Although they’ll probably make it, and definitely have the resume to make it, they do have to win one of their 4 last matches to make it to the .500 record required to make the tournament, and their 4 remaining matches are all on the road against other ranked teams where they will be underdogs.

    Finally, if you’ve ever been curious, someone in the volleytalk blog found the manual that includes guidelines/ rules for tournament selection for volleyball- http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/PreChamp_DI_WVB_2014-15_Revised.pdf . It’s, as with most manuals, VERY wordy- but the part that goes into selection criteria starts at page #15 (section 2.3 Selection criteria).
     
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2014
  20. buffgal

    buffgal Club Member Club Member

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    I appreciate the write-ups you provide us. Thank you.
     
  21. MarkW

    MarkW Well-Known Member

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    "Note- As anticipated, the Buffs worst loss of the year was at home against Kent State, who ended the regular season at RPI #169. (It was by FAR their worse RPI loss- next worse was to RPI #27 Kansas.) The best RPI win was against #30 Arizona, followed closely by wins against #33 ASU and #39 USC."

    The loss to Kent State was at a tourney in Las Vegas, not in Boulder. Still, it hurt them in the RPI. Not sure what went wrong that day, but obviously there wasn't a hangover that caused bad results for the rest of the season.

    CU seems to struggle with opponents that are big and physical (WSU) but can find a way to stay in a match against very talented opponents who are more likely to play technically than physically.
     
  22. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Thanks Markw for the correction on location of the Kent State match- I've fixed the info in my initial post. (With some schedule analysis I did, I knew that before, but then forgot to fix it!)

    Also, just curious since it sounds like you're a big soccer fan- do you know what style North Carolina plays? (And, with their tradition and results, I assume they have an endless supply of great talented athletes to throw out against their opponents?)
     
  23. MarkW

    MarkW Well-Known Member

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    I don't know what style UNC plays, but yes they have an endless supply of talent. Because it's been a while since CU's played them I haven't had the opportunity to watch in person or on TV.

    Their head coach (Anson Dorrance) was at one time the women's national team coach (and was coached them to the 1991 World Championship) and thus back in the day created a reputation that has helped him since. UNC has won 21 NCAA titles in women's soccer under his guidance the last coming in 2012. Oh, and according to his bio he's won 91% of the games he's coached at UNC.
     
  24. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Volleyball-standings, ratings and rankings update for week ended Nov. 23rd

    Well- soccer is over, so I won’t be discussing that team in detail this week. Hope they have a nice off-season, get healthy and get back to work when it’s time- spring training/ season is I believe only 2-3 months away, and I’m sure they won’t be strangers to conditioning drills and the weight room before then.

    So, here’s my look at the volleyball team’s standings, ratings, and rankings, and what they mean as to NCAA tournament hopes. In general, they are safely in, but obviously want to be playing well going into the tournament, so hope they take it to OSU and Utah!

    1) Standings- Buffs at 10-8, in a 2 way tie for 5th in the Pac 12 with UCLA, with 2 teams one game ahead and 2 teams two games behind. If the Buffs win both of their final 2 matches, they could end up as high as 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] place in the Pac 12. If they lost both, the worse they can end up is a tie for 6[SUP]th[/SUP].

    Note- not related to the Buffs, but after getting swept playing the Oregon schools, USC (within one vote (behind Stanford) of being picked the favorite in the Pac 12 preseason coaches' poll) is in danger of missing of the NCAA tournament for the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] time since either 1986 or 1990. (I saw both years in a volleytalk thread.) They are currently right at .500, so have to win one of their two remaining matches to avoid finishing with an overall record below .500, which is the minimum winning % required to get a tournament bid. And, both of their remaining matches are on the road against ranked teams (Arizona and UCLA).

    2) RPI and Pablo ratings-

    In RPI, the Buffs are unchanged from last week at #24. Within the Pac 12, the Buffs are still 7[SUP]th[/SUP] in RPI out of the Pac 12 teams. USC is the next Pac team right above the Buffs at #23, with Oregon State next below the Buffs at #35. (Overall, the Pac 12 teams are averaging a VERY strong 37 RPI, with the 9 team Big 12 closest with a 46 average.)

    In the more respected “Pablo” ratings (see my original post for more info), the Buffs moved up one so are now nationally rated #19. Among Pac 12 teams, the Buffs are unchanged as the 6[SUP]th[/SUP] highest Pac team in Pablo ratings. Overall average Pablo rating is 28 for the Pac, so the conference is considered even stronger in that rating than in RPI.

    3) Projected RPI Estimates

    Also, take them for what it’s worth, but there are a couple posters on the main Volleyball blog (Usernames Bluepenguin (BP) and Rick Kern, thanks to them) who estimate what record all D1 teams will end up with (I believe using the Pablo rankings and adjusting for home vs. road) and, if that estimated outcome does occur, what all the teams’ RPI’s will end up at. This week:

    BP still estimates the Buffs finishing up 11-9 in conference (so 1-1 the rest of the way, assuming winning at home against OSU and losing at Utah) if they perform to expectations and, if that occurs, he/ she estimates they’ll end up ~#35 in RPI. (http://volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/56506/rpi-futures-11-23?page=1)

    Rich Kern’s (http://volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/56524/projected-rkpi-11-24-2014) projections also has the Buffs ending up at 11-9 in conference, and still with quite a bit higher/ better RPI at an estimated #24 if that occurs than BP. With the Buffs currently at RPI #25 and only having two matches left, both against decent RPI teams (#’s 44 & 45), I’d hope the #24 is closer to their ending RPI as opposed to #35 (although I also can’t think of a way it will matter much?).

    4) Rankings- Due I assume to Purdue losing to an un-ranked Minnesota team, the Buffs moved up one spot to #18 in the country! Looking at the Buff’s Volleyball Information Guide, looks like that may be the highest the Buffs have been ranked since 1998.?. (That team started off #12 in the country, and fell a little bit through the year and ended up #17.)

    Within the Pac 12, the Buffs #18 rank remains 6[SUP]th[/SUP] among Pac teams. The Pac 12 went down to 9 teams in the Top 25 this week from 10 last week, with USC falling out for the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] time in I assume a LONG time. A 10[SUP]th[/SUP] team, Oregon State, is still receiving votes, and is informally #26 in the country, and USC is still receiving 7 votes and is informally #32.

    As with last week, just wanted to link to the manual that includes guidelines/ rules for tournament selection for volleyball- http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/PreChamp_DI_WVB_2014-15_Revised.pdf . It’s, as with most manuals, VERY wordy- but the part that goes into selection criteria starts at page #15 (section 2.3 Selection criteria).

    Go Buffs!
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2014
  25. buffgal

    buffgal Club Member Club Member

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    Very happy to see the Buffs move up to 18th. I'm sure CSU would love to play against Gabby.
     
  26. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Volleyball-standings, ratings and rankings update RIGHT AFTER the regular season

    Like I did for soccer, forgot I was going to post a look at volleyball and list how the Buffs ended up in the Pac 12 standings, rankings, and ratings right after the regular season- mostly for posterity sake (and for comparison purposes in case I or someone else does similar in future years.) So, the below ratings and rankings are from BEFORE the start of the NCAA tournament.

    (Once the volleyball tournament ends, I may do a final look at both Buff soccer and volleyball to see what changed in the rankings and ratings from national results in their respective NCAA tournaments.)


    1) Standings- Buffs ended up 11-9, in a 3 way tie for 4th with Oregon and UCLA, one game behind 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] place Arizona, and 2 games ahead of a three way tie for 7[SUP]th[/SUP].

    Note- As I believe was mentioned in another thread, all 10 Pac 12 teams selected to the NCAA tournament won their 1[SUP]st[/SUP] round games. After round 2, 5 (Stanford, Washington, UCLA, Oregon State and Oregon) still remain alive. Hope they ALL do well!

    2) RPI and Pablo ratings- In RPI, the Buffs ended the regular season at #27, down a little bit from #24. Within the Pac 12, the Buffs stayed at 7[SUP]th[/SUP] in RPI out of the Pac 12 teams. USC was the next Pac team next above the Buffs at #22, with Oregon State next below at #36. (Overall, the Pac 12 teams averaged a VERY strong 37.6 RPI before the start of the tournament, with the 9 team Big 12 closest with a 47.8 average.)

    In the more respected “Pablo” ratings (see my original post for more info), the Buffs ended the regular season rated #22. Among Pac 12 teams, the Buffs fell to the 8[SUP]th[/SUP] highest Pac team in Pablo ratings (from 6[SUP]th[/SUP] the week before) after the loss to Utah, although they were RIGHT behind national #20 Utah and #21 USC.


    3) Rankings- After the 1-1 thanksgiving week (home win over #27 Oregon State, road loss to #20 Utah), the Buffs fell one spot from #18 to #19 in the country.

    Within the Pac 12, the Buffs #19 ranking remained 6[SUP]th[/SUP] among Pac ranked teams. The Pac 12 overall had 8 teams in the Top 25 after the regular season ended, with Oregon State (27[SUP]th[/SUP]) and USC (29[SUP]th[/SUP]) also receiving votes.
     
  27. BuffaloChuck

    BuffaloChuck Member

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    It was tough to see Colorado get blasted out of their season by Colorado State. At least the Buffs stomped Northern Colorado. The Pac12 ended up with 4 teams surviving and lowly Oregon State was one of those, and they face Stanford next. There were only two upsets in the first round - Kansas showed their true worth by out-erroring a hapless Ark-LittleRock - "Who can serve the ball into the net the most times?" Kansas. A match of errors. And Arizona was walloped by BYU, barely showing up for that match.
     
  28. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Just for the sake of (meaningless) accuracy:

    1) There are actually 5 Pac teams still left (Stanford, OSU, UCLA, Washington and Oregon).

    2) In defense of Arizona (for some reason I'm much more a Pac 12 homer in volleyball than I am in other sports, even the freakin' *****cats)-
    a) They won their 1st round match (against mighty Yale). BYU beat them in the 2nd round.
    b) AZ wasn't blown out. They won set one, and lost the next 3 sets by 4, 2 and 2 points. definitely a nail biter.
    c) And, BYU was the non-seeded team NO ONE wanted to play. BYU is a GOOD squad, and are actually considered small favorites by many in the volleyball world tomorrow, even though they are playing the tournament #6 seed in Florida State.
     
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2014
  29. BeBe

    BeBe Club Member Club Member

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    Technicality, I know, but Arizona lost in the second round, not the first. And PAC 12 has 5 teams in sweet 16, not 4 : Stanford, Oregon State, UCLA, Washington, and Oregon.

    Also BYU is a very good team. Before the draw came out they were considered the "likely to be unseeded" team you don't want to meet. They were ranked earlier in the season and in a position to be seeded until they ended the season with a couple bad losses.

    While CU's loss to CSU at Moby in the second round was a heartbreaker and was clearly a match the Buffs coulda, shoulda won, I can't agree that CSU "blasted" CU. To me that implies CSU won handily. I would not call winning 16-14 in the fifth set after being up 2 sets to 0 a "blasting". The Rams played consistent, good ball; the Buffs were inconsistent and hurt themselves with too many mistakes. Had the Buffs committed a few less errors at key moments, they would still be in the tourney.


    EDIT: Looks like Aztec beat me to it.
     
  30. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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    As the saying goes- "Great minds (largely) think alike". Although you did the most important thing I forgot to do- defend the Buffs against the "blasted" comment.
     

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