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Colorado football year 2 "Progression"

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by absinthe, Nov 18, 2012.

  1. absinthe

    absinthe Ambitious but rubbish. Club Member Junta Member

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    Typically the second year of any coaching staff yields the biggest change in performance over the previous year. At this point players have 2 full years of practice and a season of live action under their belts in the new system. The team is typically made up of 50% of the "new guy's" players and many of the kinks are worked out. We've seen some progression in the return game and O'niel is having a better season, other than that it is not good, here are the numbers and just the numbers:

    Jon Embree 2011 Vs Jon Embree 2012:

    Category2012 Rank2011 Rank"progression"
    Rushing Offense109105worse
    Passing Offense9956worse
    Total Offense11896worse
    Scoring Offense120109worse
    Rush defense11697worse
    Pass Efficiency Defense120114worse
    Total Defense118104worse
    Scoring Defense120117worse
    Turnover Margin11480worse
    Pass Defense10697worse
    Passing Efficiency11682worse
    Sacks8047worse
    SacksAllowed11991worse

    We are worse in almost every major statistical category.
     
  2. BuffaloChuck

    BuffaloChuck Member

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    Good formatting and chart-work. Thanks. Much appreciated, sad as it is. When I saw how many points we allowed last year to this, and that we're giving up a lot more, plus that we're scoring far fewer points, I was embarrassed for Embree. Thru 11 games, there's a 110-point differential between those totals from last year to this season. "In every phase, going backwards and getting worse."
     
  3. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    We had a much tougher schedule last year, too.
     
  4. absinthe

    absinthe Ambitious but rubbish. Club Member Junta Member

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    Penalties are also another great measurement of the staff, at the beginning of year two in a system the players should better understand where they need to be, their assignments, and after playing for a lame duck coach should be more invested with a new staff. This along with the renewed energy and attention brought to practice should result in a decrease in pnealties year over year, here is what we are seeing through 10 games this year:

    10 games in 2011
    PENALTIES/YARDS .......................................... 64/598
    Offensive .................................................. 31/238
    Defensive ................................................. 15/187
    Special Teams ......................................... 16/143
    Bench/Fans/NCAA Unsportsmanlike .... 2/30

    13 games in 2011

    PENALTIES/YARDS .......................................... 103/866
    Offensive .................................................. 60/411
    Defensive ................................................. 28/326
    Special Teams ......................................... 14/114
    Bench/Fans/NCAA Unsportsmanlike .... 1/15

    Now this is not a particularly fair comparison as we are looking at totals for a 13 game season last year vs a total of 10 (reported) games so far this season. So how do we reconcile this? I went with simple math and applied at 10/13 ratio to the penalties. After doing that we show a marginal improvement in total penalties taken (76 vs 64) Yards (665 vs 598) and show some improvement on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. However Special teams have been truly terrible racking up and adjusted 50% more penalties.

    All in all here the penalties are about a wash with small improvements in some area's and regressions in others. This is probably the biggest thing the staff could hang its hat on, "hey we didnt get worse." That said this is an area we would have expected to see significant progress and have not.
     
  5. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    "Penalties" is a completely useless stat, abs. Thanks for the work on breaking this down, but it means nothing to me.

    Programs in the bottom 20 in the nation in penalties per game:

    TCU
    Texas Tech
    Fresno State
    LSU
    Bowling Green
    Florida
    Syracuse
    Washington
    Oregon
    Rutgers
    LA Tech
    USC
    UCLA

    All of those teams have winning records and some are among the best teams in the nation.

    That said, I think it's a good thing that the offense has cut down on false starts this season.
     
  6. absinthe

    absinthe Ambitious but rubbish. Club Member Junta Member

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    I am just fishing for numbers to look at and penalties is not a great one - but there is no real other way to convey that your OC cant get a play in on time than penalties. Also you have the issue of penalties of aggression vs penalties that are coaching issues.

    That said i do think there is some value in looking at it, and was actually surprised we arent worse when you have EB on national TV admitting he cant get plays in.
     
  7. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

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    Last three years:

    2010:
    Wins5
    Losses7
    Season Points Scored290
    Season Points Allowed369
    Average CU Points24.2
    Average Opponent Points30.8
    Average Margin-6.6

    2011:
    Wins3
    Losses10
    Season Points Scored257
    Season Points Allowed475
    Average CU Points19.8
    Average Opponent Points36.5
    Average Margin-16.8

    2012:
    Wins1
    Losses10
    Season Points Scored179
    Season Points Allowed510
    Average CU Points16.3
    Average Opponent Points46.4
    Average Margin-30.1

     
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