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Colorado's Offensive Staff - Performance v Pay?

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by Darth Snow, Dec 19, 2014.

  1. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    http://www.andthevalleyshook.com/20...ver-and-under-paid-offensive-staff-in-college

    Basically, our offense had good #s, but wasn't efficient and turned the ball over a lot. As a result, in the P12 we were only better than Utah and Washington on offense according to the S&P metric. Also one of the most overpaid staffs versus production.

    Weird how much the 'advanced' stats hated CU's offense this year despite all the production.
     
  2. MiamiBuffs

    MiamiBuffs Wᴉɐɯᴉ qnɟɟs Club Member

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    Great idea to put this in an open forum during recruiting season. Gold star!
     
  3. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    I think it's fair to discuss CU Football performance in a CU football forum. It's an interesting topic. And we've never shied away from valid discussions, good or bad, about CU stuff. Feel free to come up with some counterpoints!
     
  4. 89BUFF89

    89BUFF89 Well-Known Member

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    A lot easier to look at the other side of the ball probably....
     
  5. GoBuffs08

    GoBuffs08 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah because our good recruits might choose TT and Washington over CU after reading this.
     
  6. 89BUFF89

    89BUFF89 Well-Known Member

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    We might lose a recruit to Furman, SJSU, or Maine you mean...
     
  7. Idot Buff

    Idot Buff Club Member Club Member

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    Maybe you are on to something here....can we blame Slider, Syko, and Duff for the horrible recruiting results? If only they had focused on the positives, we would have a top 10 class this year.
     
  8. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    I'd assume that what's hurting the advanced stats is the low number of explosive plays (20+ yards) CU made last season. Yards per play were pretty low due to that. They did a nice job of moving the ball and scoring points, but the way they did it is the hard way. Got to be more explosive in 2015.
     
  9. pcbuff

    pcbuff Well-Known Member

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    Which I tie directly to the loss of P Rich.
     
  10. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Major factor. But there were also a lot of missed opportunities with the RBs not making something happen at the 2nd level or Sefo either not finding someone down field or the OL not giving time for deeper pass plays to develop.
     
  11. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    I think most of the issues are at RB. Not enough big plays or scoring plays from that group. Only conference team with fewer rushing TDs was Wazzu.
     
  12. hokiehead

    hokiehead Gobbler on the Mountain Club Member

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    I see comments like this on the VT boards too, and respectfully disagree with the sentiment.

    Fan based message boards are supposed to be places for fans to talk about their favorite (and least favorite) teams. IMO, topics like this are totally "fair". Boards like AB aren't supposed to be sanitized PR stops for recruits.
     
  13. hokiehead

    hokiehead Gobbler on the Mountain Club Member

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    filter by conference.

    every P5 conference has a positive sloped trend line EXCEPT the ACC. well, fucjk.
     
  14. buffsyko

    buffsyko Club Member Club Member

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    I agree, not only rushing but catching the ball and making big plays ala oregon rb's. I know our backs have nowhere near the speed as them but....
     
  15. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

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    Good idea. We need to start these kinds of threads on other teams boards
     
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  16. gobuffs58

    gobuffs58 Well-Known Member

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    the "O" put up nice yardage numbers but i agree for the most part it always took a 12 play drive to score... must have some big plays next year .... sooner or later a holding call, sack or in cu's case a turnover stalls these long drives
     
  17. gobuffs58

    gobuffs58 Well-Known Member

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    too many fg's too
     
  18. White_Rabbit

    White_Rabbit Club Member Club Member

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    So, I'm not overly well versed in advanced football stats. What does this mean? We just weren't efficient because we didn't score long TDs and turned it over too much? Are there any future implications that can be drawn from them?
     
  19. MiamiBuffs

    MiamiBuffs Wᴉɐɯᴉ qnɟɟs Club Member

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    Sure Nik. Sure.
     
  20. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    You really did not dispute anything Nik said.
     
  21. SBG

    SBG Formerly known as EFNMB Club Member Junta Member

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    Don't most TD drives need at least one play of 20+? It's so hard to drive the field every game.

    If pac12 defenses get better next year we could be hurting. Again.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  22. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

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    Basically, there are five factors that have a strong correlation to wins. According to Football Study Hall,

    Above was results from the 2013 season, but they still paint a good picture.

    Explosiveness: #87
    Efficiency: #59
    Drive-Finishing Battle:
    Field Position Battle: #118
    Turnover Battle: #115

    I couldn't find the drive-finishing stat (it's out there, just couldn't find an isolated version). So we were efficient, but lacked explosive plays, had bad field position, and didn't do well in the turnover battle.
     
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  23. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Those last two factors (Field Position & Turnovers) show how important the performance of the defense is to offensive success.
     
  24. MiamiBuffs

    MiamiBuffs Wᴉɐɯᴉ qnɟɟs Club Member

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    I.. I.. I.. I was agreeing with him.
     
  25. White_Rabbit

    White_Rabbit Club Member Club Member

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    Ok, thanks, but none of that surprises me. I was wondering if there was some kind of predictive value that we can take from this, though. Kinda like a FIP for a pitcher. Advanced stats say our offense sucked, but they actually performed decently. Are we looking at a crash back to the norm next year? Or were we just inefficient because of the factors you say which in theory we should lessen next year.

    This is kinda why I don't buy into advanced stats in football as much. Baseball stats seem so much more refined and advanced (not to mention based on individual play much more). Or I just don't get them yet, which is probably the most likely :lol:
     
  26. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

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    There may be a predictive value out there, but I'm not aware of it. I'm not sure what the dependent variable would be though, year+1 pythag or wins or something similar? Football is a bitch to measure with advanced stats because of the insane amount of variables in every play, but it's also in its infancy.

    Assuming a regression to the mean, and the mean is roughly 60, we should improve on just about everything next year. One glaring omission here though is the lack of experience aspect. I bet if you put that in a model the results would be a little bit different.
     
  27. patebuff

    patebuff Downgraded to half a star Club Member

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    Interesting stuff. One would think if we could improve the turnover battle and flip field position, we could see a completely different 2015 season.
     
  28. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    Special teams help with field position as well.
     
  29. sackman

    sackman Club Member Club Member

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    Third down efficiency also helps with field position. It seemed to me that CU would often get a team into third and six or longer, only to give up a ten yard play. Maybe I saw it more because that kind if thing drives me bonkers. Regular third down stats don't know the difference between giving up a third and two and a third and twelve.
     
  30. gobuffs58

    gobuffs58 Well-Known Member

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    agree thats the way it seemed to me ... unless it was 3rd and 25 opposing teams just kept moving the chains
     

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