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Could a CU move to the 12 Pac be the beginning of the end for Nebraska?

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by buffedup, Mar 15, 2010.

  1. buffedup

    buffedup Cooler than a Popsicle Stand. Club Member

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    All of this speculation has led me to one fun conclusion. Nebraska is the ugly kid standing alone at the dance that nobody wants to talk to.

    Many of us have had a long standing feud with the cornholes about not only our football teams, but the places our football teams call home. The favored cornhole argument has always been that the state of Colorado's geographical advantages have never and will never give CU an advantage in football. I think that might be about to change.

    Let's say the conference expansions go as follows: CU and Utah to the 12 Pac, Mizzou to the Big 11(they still won't be able to count). The Big 12 adds in TCU and somebody else. The Big 12 now basically becomes the SWC again with a few north stragglers. I can't help but think this would severely hurt Nebraska and the other north teams in the long run. The Big 12 would now be completely south dominated with one slightly relevant northern television market to count on(KC). Tom Osborne has always been leery of the inclusion of Texas in the same conference. He basically opposed expansion into the Big 12 and has made no secret of being interested if the Big 10 came calling. He obviously sees the writing on the wall and it isn't good for the fuskers. And sorry Tom, they aren't going to call, and you are about to read why.

    This brings me back to why the beautiful state of Colorado is now possibly going to give CU an advantage that Nebraska has never and will never have...a large and rapidly growing television market. The future of college football is predicated on television money, meaning the larger the market, the more money you get. The beauty of it is that with all of their past success and championships and local fan support, Nebraska has little appeal for a major conference to add for expansion because they have a television market that is the equivalent to the treeehouse in my backyard.

    If this scenario comes down the pike, I for one think this will severely damage the remaining North teams in the long run. Wouldn't that be a shame. Thoughts?
     
  2. sackman

    sackman Club Member Club Member

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    What is this "nebraska" you're talking about? I've already forgotten them.
     
  3. absinthe

    absinthe Ambitious but rubbish. Club Member Junta Member

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    I think he means Utah
     
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  4. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    My thought is that the Big 12 is soon going to be exactly what the big money programs (UT, TAMU, OU, NU) want it to be. Missouri and Colorado will leave. TCU and Houston will join. OU and OSU will go to the North. Then, nearly every year for the final game of the season NU will be playing OU while UT plays TAMU to determine who goes to the B12C game. With unequal revenue splits and balancing the conference alignment that way, those 4 will make as much or more money than ever even though they watered down the conference a bit and lost a couple media markets. And any football conference with those 4 programs will always be a significant player on the national stage (no matter who the other 8 teams are).

    I just hope that CU has 2 good years in football, MBB and WBB before we leave. Our respective rosters stack up so that this should be the case.
     
  5. ScottyBuff

    ScottyBuff Well-Known Member

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    Personally, I think that the Big Ten would rather take Nebraska than Missouri. The TV market thing isn't so simple as how many TV's are in the hometown of the school being discussed. NU has a very large following in football (much larger than Missouri). Even though the StL and KC are bigger than Omaha/Lincoln markets, it doesn't matter if noone watches. Nothing is that black and white, of course, but that is the difficulty in choosing which team.

    The Big Ten Network gets a revenue boost by being placed in large TV markets, yes. But long-term they will only maintain or grow that revenue with high ratings in their respective markets. Will Missouri playing Michigan State draw large TV ratings in Chicago and Detroit, or will Nebraska-Michigan State?

    The other factor is bowl games. Missouri cries about being passed over by Iowa State to the Insight Bowl, but the reason the Insight Bowl overlooked them is because they suck at traveling to bowl games. The Big Ten has major bowl game affiliations. While I'm sure the Missouri faithful will pour out if they ever made a Rose Bowl, would they also if they went to the Champs Sports Bowl?

    Nebraska has higher ranked academics over Missouri based on USNWR and ARWU rankings, and a larger endowment.

    Rivalry wise they fit better than Missouri. With Mizzou their rival would be Illinois, but that leaves Northwestern out. With Nebraska they would fit with Iowa, allowing Minnesota-Wisconsin to be the big rivalry weekend game.

    I didn't mean to side-track your original post, but I don't think us moving to the Pac-10 would ruin the Fuskers.

    The Big 12 would probably bring in BYU and New Mexico to replace any lost members. Market wise it is slight drop (Mormon/SLC vs Denver) but not tremendous. Popularity-wise it is a drop but not significant enough to say the conference would be "doomed". Basketball-wise it would be a huge upgrade to any already tough conference.

    I would even put BYU and New Mexico in the South with Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Baylor. BYU-Baylor could be a "holy war". New Mexico-Texas Tech for the Panhandle Trophy. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to the North Division would rebalance the power in football between divisions.

    Of course, the combination of these moves would kill the MWC. Left with UNLV, San Diego State, Colorado State, Wyoming, and Air Force they would have to re-merge with the WAC schools. I could see Air Force going Independent in that scenario.
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2010
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  6. Creebuzz

    Creebuzz Club Member Club Member

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    By 2030, US Census projections indicate a Colorado population increase of roughly 1.5 million. Nebraska about 100 thousand, making them even more dependent on out of staters. As many have noted many times before, proximity is the most important indicator for college choice, followed closely by team success. If Missouri goes Big X and CU goes 12 Pac, then that likely limits the closest population centers for Nebraska. I think they should be nervous, especially if CU decides to actually try in football again.

    On the flip side, there will be 1.5 million more people clogging roads. Texas, Cali and Florida are projected to add 10 million+ EACH.
     
  7. BuffSurveyor

    BuffSurveyor Club Member Club Member

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    I really love the off season around here. Buffedup needs to send me some of that stuff he smokes, drinks or injects. No one would think of this stuff unless he is $%^edup.

    Keep it coming, it's just a few more weeks until the spring games are played.
     
  8. aik

    aik Club Member Club Member

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    I feel like the Denver market is still more important to the Big 12. Nebraska, Mizzou, Texas and Kansas travel so well to Boulder for games because so many live in Denver. I would bet the largest alumni association chapter outside of each of those schools' respective states is in Denver. Can the same be said for the Pac's California and Arizona (or Utah) schools? For that reason above all others I think the B12 would do all it can to keep CU in for those conference games.
     
  9. BupsJones

    BupsJones Active Member

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    Not sure if I understand anything at all in this post. The Big 12 North, yes every team in it finished with a better football record than CU this past year. In basketball isn't Kansas and Kansas State ranked in the Top 8 in the country heading into the NCAA Tournament? And the Nebraska women's team, don't they only have 1 loss this season? I have not even brought up the Big 12 South yet, but I do not think for a second that Texas and Oklahoma are going to ever drop off the radar, so as far as the Big 12 hurting, I say quite the contrary. With CU departing and potentially Missouri as well, the football will probably get better. And that statement is from a die-hard Buffs fan and '02 alum. Doesn't everyone see that we are the weakest link when it comes to successful athletics currently in the Big 12? We have the TV market, the academics, the research, the style, the reputation, and the atmosphere, but we are going through a horrible football state and just finished a hoops season that was considered successful at 15-16. Our attendance is embarrassing at both sports, and we have no games on ESPN this coming season. Again, how is Nebraska done and how is the Big 12 going to be hurt by us leaving?

    Also, we can continue to play Nebraska all we want non-conference, that is unless it gets in the way of their games against South East Louisiana Tech.
     
  10. wsp4820

    wsp4820 Sally Club Member Junta Member

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    This was my initial reaction to this thread as well. Looking at recent trends, losing CU and Mizzou and adding OU and OSU makes the North much stronger immediately. Adding TCU and say Houston or even Louisville weakens the South, but not necessarily that much. Arguing that NU will become irrelevant is stupid. If CU and Mizzou leave and the B12 can't attract quality replacements, that weakens NU. But, what evidence is there to suspect that B12 won't add TCU and another Texas school and continue to be strong?
     
  11. BupsJones

    BupsJones Active Member

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    PS: Adding TCU and oh say, Colorado State to the Big 12 adds a BCS Bowl team and a team that blew us out last season and is only getting better. Again, CU is fortunate anyone is runored to want us after the last 5 years of bad press and poor performance.
     
  12. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Your point stands, BupsJones... but on what planet is 23-17 a blowout loss? :smile2:

    It sure ****ing felt like a blowout, but we had to play our absolute worst game and get hosed on a helmet-to-helmet personal foul no-call to lose by 6 points to those chumps.
     
  13. Creebuzz

    Creebuzz Club Member Club Member

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    Ok add TCU and Houston, now the texas recruiting pie gets sliced and diced even further. Colorado kids start looking to PAC 10 schools if they don't want to sign with CU and Missouri kids look Big X. Overall, Big XII may be better, but the change hurts Nebraska. The trend with Colorado kids has already started. Yeah, Nebraska got Moudy, but Stanford & Cal did better recruiting the state of Colorado last year. I just don't see them as having a base. This past year kNU had a good season, had a blowout bowl game, and a Heisman finalist, and, even then, struggled to break the top 30 recruiting rank (behid Mizz).
     
  14. walk

    walk Member

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    So long as Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Nebraska are together, they are all four only getting better and better and will be just fine. Texas A&M is on the rise and Nebraska is definitely on the rise. All four of those teams recuriting base is Texas. Unfortunately, other than the rivalry with Colorado, I don't think leaving to the PAC 10 detrimentally affects Nebraska. If anything it will bolster their revenue and prestige becuase they'll get a better Thanksgiving game as Colorado v. Nebraska just doesn't do it for many. But, Nebraska vs. Oklahoma or Nebraska vs. BYU would be a hell of a national game .
     
  15. bombay

    bombay Club Member Club Member

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    Certainly hope so.
     
  16. BupsJones

    BupsJones Active Member

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    I was at the game, sitting front row behind the CSU bench and it was a blowout. They controlled us the whole game on defense, offense and special teams, and we scored a garbage touchdown with under 2 minutes left. C'mon, we had 29 yards rushing in the entire gamer! Anytime we lose to CSU it is pretty much a blowout since we should we beating them by at least 20 every year.
     
  17. 96 Buff

    96 Buff Resident Commie Bastard Club Member Junta Member

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    I don't ****ing care what happens to ****braska. **** those ****ing assholes.
     
  18. UrbanaBuff

    UrbanaBuff Member

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    Scotty, great points. As an Illinois alum and Chicago native (I'm a CU alum too), I'll add my take on the Big Ten.

    Mizzou is relevant in Chicago and the Big Ten footprint, and has always been quasi-BT. Maybe thats due to the Braggin' Rights rivalry with Illinois. Or because many Chicago students go to Mizzou, since it is closer than or as close as OSU, Minny, PSU. Most Big Ten people hold Mizzou's academics in high regard, likely due to its journalism school. We just don't have the same connection to Nebraska.

    When it comes to what each school has to offer, its seems like a push. Academics are about equal. In sports, Nebraska is a specialist (great football, horrible basketball) and Mizzou is a generalist (decent football & basketball). Both of those traits are admirable. Honestly, I would be happy to add either or both to the Big Ten. Recruit ND and call it a day at 14.


     
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2010
  19. sackman

    sackman Club Member Club Member

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    I honestly do not care what happens to nebraska. 100% irrelevant to me unless we somehow end up in the same conference. If that ends up being the case, then I want them to die a painful death.
     
  20. BuffNut99

    BuffNut99 Club Member Club Member

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    CU leaving the Big 12 would mean fewer future TV dollars to every remaining team, because whoever the replacements are, the next Big 12 TV contract will be for less money. Adding TCU may be a short term gain in competitiveness, but since when has being in a tough conference helped CU? The TCU TV market is already covered in the current Big 12. No new TV sets. New Mexico, please. Same with BYU. The Big 12 needs CU, but will never admit it. Nebraska, being the original slow learners, will not make any change until all of the other chess pieces have moved around. They may end up Independent in several years.
     
  21. Liver

    Liver modded mod Club Member Junta Member

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    there is a rumor floating around again that utah won't go to the p10 without byu (political pressure or something)... saw it on another site a day or so ago... can't remember which. if that is true, then i think utah will not be joining the p10 because i don't believe the p10 will take byu. soooooooooooo.... if we accept the conventional wisdom (and i do on this point) that CU is the top choice, then who is the second team?

    i know it seems a stretch, but i could see a world in which the fuskers join us in the p10. i know it is a bad fit, culturally and geographically, but think about all the rest of the equation...

    we may be chanting DIE FUSKER DIE for many, many more seasons. :rofl:
     
  22. Darian3Hagan

    Darian3Hagan '89 Player of the Year Club Member

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    I believe that BYU will do everything in its power to tag along but, can they really keep utah from going?
     
  23. Liver

    Liver modded mod Club Member Junta Member

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    hell, i have no idea! who knows how the nation's only religious theocratic state will handle this. i am kidding but only a little... i don't think the byu folks will want to be "left behind" and considering how many mormons there are in the state gov there, i would think it might be an issue.

    will the p10 agree to take byu? i don't think so... for one, byu would have to change its policies on academic freedom. for another, they'd have to agree to play on sundays. now, maybe the money and prestige will be so tempting that they will do it, but that seems a bit of a stretch.

    i just want this whole thing to be resolved!
     
  24. The Guest

    The Guest Guest

    You address a great point here. Every TV in the flat, forgettable state of nebraska will be tuned to any husker football game. Similarly, every set will be tuned to pre-game and post game analysis, so long as the huskers are mentioned in some positive context.

    But, here's something else to consider. The Gilligan factor. Back when Gilligan's Island aired new episodes, it actually gathered rather impressive ratings. Impressive enough for writers to keep the crew and guests of the USS Minnow on the island for numerous seasons. Then someone had the bright idea to perform a little demographics research. It turns out, when the dust settled and the real audience of Gilligan's Island was finally revealed to the advertisers who pumped dollars into the show, only Ronco was left with a dog in that fight. That's why the show was cancelled; despite decent ratings, nobody wanted to waste money selling products to the riff-raff that was watching (or at least that's what some professor told us about 20 years ago).

    So, while nobody disputes that nebraska fans will adjust their rabbit ears in droves just to catch a glimpse of faded glory, the question remains whether or not anybody wants to spend money courting the business of husker fans. Can Zebco, adult diapers, harvester international and cough syrup dollars really justify the inclusion of this team into a conference TV bid?

    I don't know the answers...I'm just asking the questions.
     
  25. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Wally makes a great point.

    Great example is WWE Friday Night Smackdown. It pulls a relatively huge ratings number, but gets little play because advertisers aren't impressed with its demographic.
     
  26. Unleash Hell

    Unleash Hell Well-Known Member

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    I still have to laugh everytime someone mentions Colorado state as a replacement for Colorado in the Big 12. Ok, CSU has finished at the bottom half of the MWC for like the past 5 years. They have a high school sized stadium, and a joke of a fan base. It would be like adding SMU or New Mexico state to the Big 12. I think teams like TCU, Houston, Boise st, BYU fit the Big 12 better than CSU.
     
  27. Unleash Hell

    Unleash Hell Well-Known Member

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    Texas, Nebraska, Boise st are likely candidates IMO if no Utah
     
  28. UrbanaBuff

    UrbanaBuff Member

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    I'd have to think New Mexico would become our new P12 partner, should Utah bail. They bring a growing Albuqurque market and a Top 10 hoops team is giving them some positive pub these days.
     
  29. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    :nod:

    Plus an old rivalry with the Arizona schools and a state population that's not too far away from Utah's (about 700k less people). Fewer televisions, but I'd suspect higher ratings since UNM dominates its local markets while the U plays second fiddle to the Y in Utah.
     
  30. aik

    aik Club Member Club Member

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    If Baylor or A&M in the legislature can block a Texas move out of conference, I've got to believe BYU has much more power to do so with Utah. I see it as a package deal and put the pressure on BYU to become attractive to the Pac for both teams to go. Meanwhile, you've got CU which has great academics but fields the minimum number of sports and performs well consistently only in the lowest revenue ones. New Mexico would be a great pairing and make the most sense of who's left to choose from but then you're just adding a mid-to-large and growing TV market, a great NCAA golf course and an athletic program with not much to speak of lately but a killer venue for college hoops and a team that may be a flash in the pan this year.
     

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