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Cross Country- Friday, 10/31- Pac 12 Championships

Discussion in 'University of Colorado News and Olympic Sports' started by AztecBuff, Oct 27, 2014.

  1. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Just saw that the running sites are starting to post some Pac 12 Conference previews, so thought I'd start a thread on it.

    First, all of the scheduling and coverage information below is from the Pac 12 championship website http://pac-12.com/cross-country/championships/2014-pac-12-cross-country-championships . This website also says- “You can follow the race in real time via live results on Pac-12.com, where you'll also find exclusive video, photos and recaps throughout the day.”

    Location, Date AND Time- The Race is scheduled for this Friday at the Metropolitan Golf Links in Oakland, Calif., with an 11:00 Mountain Time start. Specifically, the women’s race is scheduled to start at 11:00 AM MT, followed by the Men at 12:00 PM MT. (Of course, that equates in Pacific (race local) time as a 10:00 start for the women's race and 11:00 for the men's.)

    If you’re a Buff fan in the Bay Area and your schedule allows it, maybe some of you can head over to Oakland to help root the Buffs on?

    Coverage:
    Live results will be available at http://rtspt.com/events/pac12/xc2014/ . I assume the CU Buffs twitter ( https://twitter.com/cubuffstrack ) will also be a nice resource for Buff-centric updates and other news.

    Note it sounds like there will NOT be LIVE video coverage of the race available. Instead, the races will be shown the following Monday (11/3) on the Pac 12 networks starting at 7:00 PM (MT) (6:00 PT). The women’s race is to be shown at 7:00 and the Men’s at 7:30. (Note- for those who DVR/ TiVo things, at least on my Comcast listings, the two races are scheduled as two separate listings.)

    The article and video previews I've found so far:

    1) Letsrun.com written preview- http://www.letsrun.com/news/2014/10/pac-12s-preview/

    2) flotrack.com video preview (4 minutes, 19 seconds)- http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/251665-Whos-1/video/752705-Whos-1-Pac-12-Edition#.VE7ESfnF_ng

    Various notes about the Pac 12 Championships and Buffs cross country in general:

    1) Scoring- Assume most people reading this know A LOT MORE about running than I do, but just in case, scoring in cross country can be explained as follows (largely from Wikipedia)- “In the United States, the most common scoring system is seven runners, with the top five scoring. Points are awarded to the individual runners of eligible teams, equal to the position in which they cross the finish line (first place gets 1 point, second place gets 2 points, etc.). The points for these runners are summed, and the low score wins. Individual athletes, and athletes from incomplete teams, are excluded from scoring. … The lowest possible score in a five-to-score match is 15 (1+2+3+4+5).”

    2) Distance difference between the Pac 12 race and the future major races the Buffs will be running - Both these Pac 12 championships and the already ran Pre-National Men’s races are “only” 8 kilometers (km) (~4.97 miles). Then, the NCAA regional and national championships are 10km (~6.21 miles). I believe all the main Women’s races are 6km (~3.73 miles).

    3) Men’s Race/ notes:

    a. The 10/21/14 Coach’s Poll #1 ranked Buffs are heavy favorites. Other ranked Pac teams are Oregon (#2), Stanford (#9), UCLA (#11), and Washington (#12).

    b. The other poll I could find is the Saucony Flo50. The Buffs are also #1 in that poll (dated 10/20), but there are differences behind them, with Stanford leading the other Pac teams at #6, followed by Oregon (7), Washington (12) and UCLA (14).

    c. The Saucony Flo50 also ranks individuals nationally. In the latest (10/20) list, the Buffs have a VERY impressive 5 runners ranked in the top 13- Sr. Blake Theroux (#3), Soph. Ben Saarel (7), Jr. Ammar Moussa (11), Sr. Jake Hurysz (12) and Jr. Pierce Murphy (13).

    d. In addition to the Buffs, the Pac 12 is well represented with top individuals in the 10/20 Flo50 rankings, with the following ranked in the Top 10- Edward Cheserek (Oregon, #1); Maksim Korolev (Stanford, #2); Eric Jenkins (Oregon, #5); and Joe Rosa (Stanford, #8).

    e. For the individual race, Mr. Cheserek, who won every major race last year, is considered in the Letsrun article a pretty heavy (“lock”) favorite, with any of the highly ranked individuals I named above likely also expected to also place highly in this race.

    f. As I noted in another thread, it’s looking like 1 of the top 2-3 Buff runners from last year, Sr. (or maybe Jr.?) Morgan Pearson, may be redshirting this year, which if true should help the Buffs also field a very strong team next year. (He ran unattached and finished 4th in the Rocky Mountain Shootout this year, and then didn’t run in the Pre-National race. Last year, Mr. Pearson was the 2nd Buff finisher in their national championship winning race.)

    4) Women’s Race/ notes:

    a. The Women’s teams in the Pac 12 aren’t as highly ranked as the men, but as of the 10/21 Coaches’ Poll still contained in the Top 30 Oregon (#3), CU (#7), Stanford (#11), Washington (#17), ASU (#22), and UCLA (#29).

    b. The other poll I could find is the Saucony Flo50. In that poll (dated 10/20), Oregon also leads the Pac 12 with a #4 ranking, followed by the Buffs (#7), Stanford (#12), , Washington (16) and ASU (#23).

    c. Just because the Buffs are the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] highest ranked team in the Pac, it shouldn’t be assumed they’ll easily get 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in the Pac 12 championships. Per an interview with Coach Wetmore, he doesn’t feel the #7 rankings for the Buffs have accounted for the fact (as I mentioned in another thread) the Buffs leader/ captain and presumed #1 or 2 runner, Junior Carrie Verdon, is out for the year with a broken foot.

    d. In the Women’s Saucony Flo50 ranking, no individual Buffs are ranked nationally in the Top 25 list (dated 10/20). However, based on how they seemed to emphasize the last races in the ranking, I assume Soph. Erin Clark is very close to being rated. (The 6[SUP]th[/SUP] place finisher at the Pre-National Race is ranked #23 nationally, and Ms. Clark finished 7[SUP]th[/SUP] in that race.)

    e. Overall, there are three Pac 12 runners nationally ranked in the Saucony Flo50 Top 25. Sr. Shelby Houlihan of Arizona State is the #1 ranked runner nationally, with freshmen Elise Cranny (Stanford, from Niwot High School, ranked #10) and Bethan Knights (Cal, #20) also ranked.

    f. Based on the rankings and her experience as a senior, it’s assumed Shelby Houlihan is likely to win the women’s Pac 12 race if she runs a good race. Other than her, the Letsrun article I linked to above noted Ms.’s Clark, Cranny and Knights as possibly also being in the equation for the top places.
     
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2014
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  2. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Flotrack has now written a detail analysis of the Pac 12 men's race, with each of the individual top 25 finishers projected- http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/25...Expert-Analysis-Pac-12-Mens-Race#.VFEV-fnF_ng .

    In summary, based on their guesstimates, the race will end up "Final Team Results: 1.Colorado- 35 pts, 2.Oregon- 56 pts, 3. Stanford- 62 pts 4. UCLA 92 pts"

    (Or course, as in all sports involving man, woman and or beast, the story about expert predictions after the fact is more often how wrong the predictions were as opposed to how accurate they were. For example, the Buff men were #3 going into the National Championships last year.)

    Edit- Also, just found the 1st women's rankings after reflecting that Carrie Verdon is not able to run for the Buffs this year. The Buffs have gone down from #7 to #13. (Actually, looks like this source, Runnerspace, had the Buffs at #9 last week.) -http://college.runnerspace.com/gprofile.php?mgroup_id=87&do=blogs&blog_id=10485 . They also note the Buff's 3rd finisher in last year's national championships, Broomfield's Melanie Nun, hasn't run yet either (also injured???).
     
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2014
  3. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Here is the official cubuffs.com write-up for tomorrow's championships: http://www.cubuffs.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=600&ATCLID=209741213 .

    One thing in it- sounds like weather might be a factor, as it says "The weather for Friday calls for a high of 63 degrees with an 80 percent chance of rain. Winds from the west southwest are expected up to 11 mph. The low is expected to be 51 degrees." The Buffs are considered good "mudders", and I'd assume the main opposition Oregon, based on their home climate, also wouldn't be bothered by rain.
     
  4. dio

    dio Admin Club Member Junta Member

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    Would love to continue the X-Country dominance of this conference.
     
  5. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Flotrack.org women's race preview

    Flotrack today added a preview of the women's race leading up to tomorrow morning's races- http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/25...559-Houlihan-v-Cranny-in-Oakland#.VFLlHvnF_ng .

    Looks like they're picking the Buff's 2nd in the women's race (behind Oregon), and as expected think Shelby Houlihan from ASU (rated #1 nationally) is the odds on favorite in the individual race over Niwot's/ Stanford freshman Elise Cranny and others.

    I believe they think Buff Erin Clark could end up in the top 5. per the article- "Oregon’s tight pack will claim the team title over Colorado, but Erin Clark will finish ahead of Oregon’s No. 1 runner. ". This should mean they think she'll be a top finisher.
     
  6. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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    [tweet]528188486344802304[/tweet]


    Buff Women's entry list:
    NameComp#SexYear
    Maddie Alm95WJR
    Kaitlyn Benner96WFR
    Eryn Blakely97WFR
    Mackenzie Caldwell98WFR
    Erin Clark99WSO
    Jenny DeSouchet101WJR
    Annie Kelly102WSO
    Lucy May103WFR
    Catrina McAlister104WJR
    Sara Sutherland108WSR


    Buff Men's entry list:
    NameComp#SexYear
    Joe Holvey84MSO
    Jake Hurysz85MSR
    Ammar Moussa86MJR
    Pierce Murphy87MJR
    Morgan Pearson88MSR
    Zach Perrin89MSO
    Adam Peterman90MFR
    Ben Saarel91MSO
    Blake Theroux93MSR
    Connor Winter94MJR
     
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2014
  7. dio

    dio Admin Club Member Junta Member

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    Ladies team is young, they should be a force for the coming years.
     
  8. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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  9. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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    [tweet]528232336182493184[/tweet]

    Individually, Erin Clark in 3rd (although this early in the race assume it's a pack, so doesn't mean much in how runners will finish).
     
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2014
  10. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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  11. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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    [tweet]528233784794415104[/tweet]

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  12. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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    [tweet]528235941744226304[/tweet]

    Congrats to Erin (unofficially)!
     
  13. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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    [tweet]528237154049470464[/tweet]

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  14. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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  16. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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  17. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Congrats to the ladies. Not bad when a rebuilding year gets you 3d in the P12.
     
  18. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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  19. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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  20. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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  21. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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  22. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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  23. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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    I have NO idea what these different scores mean. What odd is? what even is?- NO idea.
     
  24. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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  25. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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  26. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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  27. TDbuff

    TDbuff Club Member Club Member

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    No expert, but I guess we're in good shape

    [tweet]528250397677617152[/tweet]
     
  28. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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  29. AztecBuff

    AztecBuff Club Member Club Member

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  30. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Very impressive.
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